Economic Integration and Food Security in South Asia

Presentation made at the ICAE 2023, in Delhi during the pre-conference workshop on Regional Integration, Sustainability and Food Security in South Asia.

I discuss the food security situation in South Asia and the role of trade, and trade policy in recent dynamics.

1. Economic Integration and Food Security in South Asia David Laborde Agrifood Economics and Policy Division 1

2. Presentation structure An overview of the food (in)security situation Food (in)security in South Asia The role of trade policies: focus on export restrictions 2

3. An overview of the food (in)security situation 3

4. A snapshot on food insecurity and malnutrition 4 https://www.fao.org/publications/home/fao-flagship-publications/the-state-of-food-security-and-nutrition-in-the-world/en PREVALENCE World South Asia Unaffordability of healthy diets 35.4 53.1 Chronic food insecurity 29 41.3 Chronic hunger 9.1 14.2

5. Global hunger rose sharply from 2019 to 2021 and persisted at the same level to 2023 WORLD P REVALENCE OF UNDERNOURISHMENT AND NUMBER OF UNDERNOURISHED PEOPLE NOTES: * Projections based on nowcasts for 2023 are illustrated by dotted lines. Bars show lower and upper bounds of the estimated range. +152 million

6. Not a global supply problem WHY? Evolution of the global food supply: total and per capita

7. Slowdown of agricultural productivity Rising inequalities Structural changes … Structural changes WHY?

8. Slowdown of agricultural productivity Rising inequalities Economic slowdown Climate change and weather extremes Conflicts Structural changes and Disruptors Structural changes Disruptors WHY?

9. Slowdown of agricultural productivity Rising inequalities Economic slowdown Climate change and weather extremes Conflicts Structural changes and Disruptors: they interact Structural changes Disruptors WHY?

10. Slowdown of agricultural productivity Rising inequalities Economic slowdown Climate change and weather extremes Conflicts Structural changes Illustration of the joint problem of slow productivity gains and inequalities WHY?

11. Conflicts and Climate : different causes, similar impacts 11 Source: adapted from Laborde (2020, 2022)

12. Shocks amplify food commodity price volatility 12

13. Domestic Food prices and World Food commodity prices are not synonymous 13

14. Food (in)security in South Asia 14

15. There was notable progress in Latin America, but h unger increased in Western Asia, the Caribbean and in most subregions of Africa PREVALENCE OF UNDERNOURISHMENT BY REGION AND SUBREGION NOTES: Eastern Asia is not shown because the PoU has been consistently below 2.5 percent since 2010. * Projected values are based on the projected mid ranges.

16. FIES in Asia

17. Focus on countries

18. The cost of Healthy Diets

19. Affordability of healthy diets

20. Cost of HD focus countries

21. Affordability of HD : focus countries

22. The role of trade in food security 24

23. International trade as a catalyst and accelerator (for change) 25 Availability Access Utilization Stability Four dimensions of Food Security

24. Global trade on economic growth Structural transformation and Inclusiveness International trade as a catalyst and accelerator (for change) 26 Availability Access Utilization Stability Four dimensions of Food Security

25. Global trade on economic growth Structural transformation and Inclusiveness International trade as a catalyst and accelerator (for change) 27 Trade in farm inputs, technology transfers Goods and Services Availability Access Utilization Stability Four dimensions of Food Security

26. Global trade on economic growth Structural transformation and Inclusiveness International trade as a catalyst and accelerator (for change) 28 Trade in farm inputs, technology transfers Goods and Services Trade in Food products Availability Access Utilization Stability Four dimensions of Food Security

27. Global trade on economic growth Structural transformation and Inclusiveness International trade as a catalyst and accelerator (for change) 29 Trade in farm inputs, technology transfers Goods and Services Trade in Food products Availability Access Utilization Stability Four dimensions of Food Security

28. Being import dependent is not synonymous of food insecurity 30 Net food exporter Net food importer

29. Recent evolution confirms the heterogenous relation with trade 31 Hunger on the rise Reduced dependency on trade Hunger on the rise Increased dependency on trade Reduced hunger Reduced dependency on trade Reduced hunger Increased dependency on trade

30. Increased inequalities remain a key driver 32

31. Why Trade matters: reacting to shocks The case of Sri Lanka 33 FAS Grain and Feed Annual – 2024, Sri Lanka, Rice

32. The role of trade policies: focus on export restrictions Trade is about comparative advantages, rules, and trust 34 https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/885671/adbi-wp1386_0.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140687

33. When Policy Responses Make Things Worse: The Case of Export Restrictions on Agricultural Products

34. When Policy Responses Make Things Worse: The Case of Export Restrictions on Agricultural Products

35. Impact on Food Importers When Policy Responses Make Things Worse: The Case of Export Restrictions on Agricultural Products

36. Who is impacted? When Policy Responses Make Things Worse: The Case of Export Restrictions on Agricultural Products

37. When Policy Responses Make Things Worse: The Case of Export Restrictions on Agricultural Products Indian Wheat Exports

38. When Policy Responses Make Things Worse: The Case of Export Restrictions on Agricultural Products Food Price Index and Export Restriction Coverage in Different Episodes of Food Price Crisis

39. When Policy Responses Make Things Worse: The Case of Export Restrictions on Agricultural Products Food Price Index and Export Restriction Coverage in Different Episodes of Food Price Crisis

40. When Policy Responses Make Things Worse: The Case of Export Restrictions on Agricultural Products Probability of implementing an ER (rice, wheat, palm oil)

41. 44 Managing the transition Critical role of trade and international coordination

42. Thank You 45