Electrical power generation Proposal seminar.pptx

power generation, transmission and distribution

1. A MSc RESEARCH PROPOSAL BY MSc CANDIDATE: LWANGA, HENRY (2014/HD08/1339U) SUPERVISOR: DR. BAKKABULINDI GEOFREY CO-SUPERVISOR: DR. EDIM MILTON DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING, MAKERERE UNIVERSITY, KAMPALA, UGANDA. AUGUST 03 , 2024 1 OPTIMIZATION OF UGANDA’S REGIONAL EXPORT POTENTIAL AND ITS READINESS IN THE EAST AFRICAN POWER POOL

2. Introduction Literature Review Problem statement Aim and objectives Scope of study Methodology References Appendix 2 Outline

3. Introduction The East African Power Pool (EAPP) is a regional initiative aiming to enhance electricity access and promote renewable energy integration in Eastern Africa. The EAPP facilitates power trading between countries through synchronous and asynchronous tie lines, with a focus on optimizing economic dispatch and reducing emissions Uganda's installed capacity is 682MW, with expected increases from new projects ( Karuma and Isimba dams) that will lead to surplus power production . Uganda exports electricity to neighboring countries but faces competition from Ethiopia, which offers cheaper power and has stronger export routes . Additionally, the use of optimization approach is essential for managing energy penetration and ensuring cost-effective and environmentally friendly power system operations within the EAPP 3

4. Introduction Cont’d 4 Fig.1: Schematic diagram of the conceptual framework for the proposed study

5. Literature Review S/N Author/Date WORKDONE FINDINGS RESEARCH GAP 1 Wright, 2014 Developed an energy model for EAPP using PLEXOS®. Demonstrated benefits of interconnection, optimal maintenance scheduling, and integrated gas-electric modeling in Tanzania. Need for further exploration of long-term impacts and scalability of the model for other EAPP countries. . 2 Musau et al., 2017 Proposed MTDC technology for EAPP interconnection. Economic, environmental, and security-stability benefits of MTDC over HVAC; 10-Area system with 18 MTDC tie lines considered.. Examination of operational challenges and cost-effectiveness over a longer period is needed. 5 Table 2 (a): Literature review

6. Literature Review Cont’d S/N Author/Date WORKDONE FINDINGS RESEARCH GAP 3 Tefera, 2022 Analyzed roles of RPPs in fostering energy cooperation. Found strong regional power pool is key to energy security and bilateral arrangements do not undermine regional trade. More detailed investigation on institutional frameworks and policy alignment required to strengthen regional cooperation. 4 Musau , 2018 Applied MAMODED and asynchronous interconnections with high RE penetration for EAPP. Asynchronous tie lines preferred for reduced pooling costs and emissions; proposed hybrid approaches for NP Hard problem solution. Further research on hybrid approaches and their implementation on a large scale across EAPP countries. 6 Table 2 (b): Literature review cont’d

7. Literature Review Cont’d S/N Author/Date WORKDONE FINDINGS RESEARCH GAP 5 G. A. Mabea , 2022 Investigated feasibility of bidding zones using clustering methodology. Found three optimal zones induce the highest welfare level in wholesale markets with planned transmission investment. Need for deeper analysis on long-term market behavior and investment impacts in different economic scenarios. 6 Pavičević and Quoilin , 2020 Developed a model for power generation impact on the water sector in African power pools. Highlighted significant impacts of water resource availability on energy mix, operational costs, carbon emissions, and water stress index. Need for robust strategies to mitigate water resource variability and ensure sustainable power generation. 7 G. Mabea , 2023 Simulated coupling of power markets and estimated locational marginal prices for EAPP. Suggested institutional restructuring, robust transmission infrastructure, and policy harmonization for integrated electricity market. Further analysis on the specific requirements and steps for effective institutional restructuring and policy harmonization. 7 Table 2 (c): Literature review cont’d

8. Literature Review Cont’d S/N Author/Date WORKDONE FINDINGS RESEARCH GAP 5 Bimenyimana et al., 2021 Conducted technoeconomic analysis for sustainable energy systems in EAC countries. Found solar energy feasible for all EAC countries, with PV + battery storage more affordable and cleaner, except in South Sudan. Exploration of integrated energy systems combining multiple renewable sources and their economic impacts.. 6 Rose and Perez-Arriaga, 2022 Modeled value of regional integration in sub-Saharan Africa under climate change scenarios.. Found variations in hydrological resources due to climate change impact regional power sector integration value. Need for adaptive strategies to address climate change impacts and enhance resilience of regional power systems. 7 Musau , Odero , & Wekesa , 2017 Proposed MAMODED with RE and emissions for EAPP with MTDC constraints. Demonstrated MTDC's economic, environmental, and stability benefits compared to traditional HVAC tie lines. Further research needed on implementation challenges and long-term performance of MTDC systems in the EAPP context. 8 Table 2 (d): Literature review cont’d

9. Problem statement Uganda Electricity Transmission Company limited is the sole buyer of all the electricity generated in Uganda, while carrying out its system modelling and analysis under the Grid Development plan 2014-2030 obtained results indicating that in model 2018 the peak demand will be 784MW, available generation of 1257.2MW, required generation 839.7MW and a surplus generation of 417.5MW. Thus the generation capacity will exceed load by a fair bit, despite the increase in demand and if the capacity remains unused this will result to an enormous cost for Uganda.. 9

10. Aim and Objectives The aim of this research is to ascertain Uganda’s regional Export Potential and readiness for the East African Power Pool for the period 2024 – 2040 . The objectives are: To model, simulate and analyze Uganda’s transmission grid base case performance (Including existing export routes) To carry out load forecasting for expected load growth and export to East African Power Pool Countries. To assess the capacity of Uganda’s planned electricity export routes infrastructure to facilitate exports to regional countries by 2040. To analyze the technical readiness and economic viability of Uganda’s grid to export surplus generation to neighboring countries after 2023. 10

11. Scope of Study The scope of this research is limited to Uganda and all the countries ( i.e Kenya , Rwanda, Tanzania and proposed one like DRC and Southern Sudan) in the east African power pool that have a direct interconnect transmission network both present and planned ones. 11

12. Methodology Objective 1: To model, simulate, and analyze Uganda’s transmission grid base case performance, including existing export routes. Approach: Data Collection Gather historical and current data on Uganda’s transmission grid, including infrastructure, load, generation capacity, and existing export routes. Software Tools Utilize DIgSILENT power system simulation software such for grid modeling. Modeling Create a base case model of Uganda’s transmission grid that accurately represents current infrastructure and operational parameters. Simulation Run simulations to evaluate grid performance under various scenarios, including peak load conditions and current export levels 12

13. Methodology cont’d Objective 2 : To carry out load forecasting for expected load growth and export to East African Power Pool (EAPP) countries . Approach Historical Data Analysis Analyze historical load growth data to identify trends and patterns. Forecasting Methods Apply statistical and AI techniques to forecast future load growth . Scenarios Develop multiple scenarios for load growth, considering factors such as economic growth, population increase, and industrial development. Export Potential Evaluate the potential for exporting electricity to EAPP countries based on forecasted load growth and regional demand projections. 13

14. Methodology Cont’d Objective 3: To assess the capacity of Uganda’s planned electricity export routes infrastructure to facilitate exports to regional countries by 2040 . Approach: Infrastructure Data Collect data on planned export routes, including technical specifications, capacity, and construction timelines . Capacity Analysis Evaluate the technical capacity of these routes to handle projected export volumes . Interconnection Plans Review regional interconnection plans and agreements within the EAPP framework Simulation Model and simulate the performance of planned infrastructure under projected export conditions. 14

15. Methodology Cont’d Objective 4: To analyze the technical readiness and economic viability of Uganda’s grid to export surplus generation to neighboring countries after 2023 . Approach: Technical Readiness Assess the grid’s ability to integrate and transmit additional power generated from projects Economic Analysis Conduct a cost-benefit analysis of exporting surplus electricity, including generation costs, transmission costs, and potential revenue . Market Analysis Evaluate the regional electricity market, including demand, pricing, and competition . 15

16. Methodology Cont’d 16 Fig.2.0: Proposed methodology INPUTS -Time Periods -Generation -Transmission -Demand and reserves -Trade DECISION VARIABLES -Generation Capacities and Timing -Transmission Infrastructure (existing and planned) -Costs -Emissions -Trade CONSTRAINTS -Generation capacity adequacy -Resource limits -Transmission adequacy -Energy balance -Trade scenarios -Emissions       Digsilent Power factory software RESULTS -Optmised Transmission lines -Voltage profile -Line and Transformer loading -Power flow and losses -Fault levels

17. Methodology Cont’d Load Flow calculation Power flow equation derivation is based on admittance of the network, power flow equation can be expressed using equations (1 ) and (2 ) The objective function is given as: Maximize : )…………………………………………………………… …(3) Subject to: ……………(4) Where = Denotes the export power,   17

18. Bimenyimana , S., Wang, C., Asemota , G. N. O., Nduwamungu , A., Mesa, C. K., Ihirwe , J. P., . . . Hagumimana , N. (2021). A technoeconomic feasibility analysis for affordable energy system in the East African community countries. International journal of photoenergy , 2021(1), 9921940. Mabea , G. (2023). Simulating Generalised Locational Marginal Pricing for Power Markets in East Africa. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 13(5), 450-460. Mabea , G. A. (2022). Simulating Zonal Pricing in East African Electricity Markets. Environment, 7(1), 13-23. Musau , M. P. (2018). Analysis of the East Africa Power Pool (EAPP) with renewable energy penetration and proposed asynchronous tie lines. Paper presented at the 2018 IEEE PES/IAS PowerAfrica . Musau , M. P., Odero , N. A., & Wekesa , C. W. (2017). Asynchronous interconnection of the proposed East Africa power pool (EAPP). Paper presented at the 2017 IEEE PES PowerAfrica . Pavičević , M., & Quoilin , S. (2020). Modeling the impact of power generation on the water sector in the north, eastern and central African power pools. Paper presented at the 2020 IEEE PES/IAS PowerAfrica . Rose, A., & Perez-Arriaga, I. (2022). Regional trade and expansion planning (RTEP) model: Model for regional power sector integration in Africa. Renewable Energy Focus, 42, 101-114. Tefera, Z. G. (2022). Sustainable Development Through Energy Cooperation in Africa: a Comparative Analysis of Eastern and Southern African Power Pools. University of Nairobi. Wright, J. G. (2014). Developing an Integrated Energy Model for the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP). Energy exemplar. African Pty Ltd., Johannesburg. References 18

19. Appendix 1: Proposed Budget for the research Appendix 19 Item Unit cost (UGX) Cost (UGX) Data Collection     Travel 2,000,000   Communication (air time) 300,000   Subsistence 2,800,000 5,100,000 Research Assistance 1,000,000   Data Analysis     Software Acquisition 1,000,000   Consultations 500,000 1,500,000       Documentation     Stationery, printing and binding 600,000       600,000 Total Cost   7,200,000

20. Appendix 2: Research framework Appendix Cont’d 20 N/O ACTIVITY TIME SCHEDULE IN MONTHS     Feb . Mar-Jun Aug Sep Oct. Nov-Dec 1 Proposal preparation             2 Literature review             3 Proposal defence             4 Data collection             5 Data analysis and interpretation             7 Produce draft report             9 Produce final report            

21. THANK YOU FOR LISTENING 21