evolving regional security order in asia.pptx

politics and security in asia

1. Week 12 Evolving Regional Security Order in Asia

2. Possible Trends Continuation of US hegemony Chinese dominance A bi-polar region US-China G2 Concert of powers A security community

3. Continuation of US hegemony US power supremacy versus China US security commitments ( Trumpism ?) Regional allies’ support Continued existence of regional security conflicts

4. Chinese dominance Dramatic increase of Chinese power US strategic retreat Resolution of regional security conflicts Regional perception of China being a benign power New institutions, new rules?

5. Bi-polarity in Asia US-China balance of power Regional states taking side Instabilities and conflicts

6. US-China G2 Relative power parity Significant mutual strategic concessions China’s domestic political transformation Great danger for US Regional states’ attitudes

7. Concert of powers Major powers working together Significant strategic policy adjustments Balance of power to perpetuate Regional smaller states’ concerns? ASEAN’s role?

8. A security community Middle powers and ASEAN to take the lead Significant changes of geopolitical mindsets Resolution of regional security conflicts Regional identity (post-modernism)

9. ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute: State of South-east Asia: 2021 If forced to align oneself in the on-going US-China rivalry, the majority of respondents choose the US (61.5%). China as a choice dropped from 46.4% in 2020 to 38.5% in 2021, even despite intensive COVID-19 diplomacy seen in the region. When asked how ASEAN should best respond to Beijing and Washington’s barbs, the majority (53.8%) prefer to have ASEAN enhance its own resilience and unity to fend off their pressures. In contrast, even with out-of-control COVID-19 outbreak, record number of deaths, pandemic-induced recession, racial tensions and assaults on democracy in the US, the region is still welcoming of Washington’s strategic influence (63.1%), an increase from 52.7% last year. Likewise, the share of respondents having confidence in the US as a strategic partner and provider of regional security increased from 34.9% to 55.4% this year. This positive view of the US may well be attributed to the anticipation that the Biden Administration will elevate American engagement with the region (68.6%).

10. Lowy Institute: Asian Power Index https://power.lowyinstitute.org/