Final Chapt. 01-Thinking critically (232 (1).ppt

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Chapter One: Thinking Critically with
Psychological Science
Overview
The Need for Psychological Science
Research Strategies: How Psychologists Ask
and Answer Questions

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The Need for Psychological Science
Humans cannot rely solely on intuition and
common sense.
Three phenomena illustrate this:
Hindsight bias
Judgmental overconfidence
Tendency to perceive patterns in random events

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Did we know it all
along?
Hindsight bias
Tendency to believe,
after learning an
outcome, that we could
have predicted it.
Also known as the
I-knew-it-all-along
phenomenon.
HINDSIGHT BIAS
When drilling the DeepwaterHorizon
oil well in 2010, oil industry employees
took some shortcuts and ignored
some warning signs, without intending
to harm the environment or their
companies’ reputations.
After the resulting Gulf oil spill, with
the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, the
foolishness of those judgments
became obvious.
REUTERS/U.S. Coast Guard/Handout

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The Limits of Intuition
and Common Sense
Overconfidence
People tend to think
they know more than
they do.
This occurs in
academic and social
behavior.
WREAT → WATER
ETRYN → ENTRY
GRABE → BARGE
•About how many
seconds do you think it
would take you to
unscramble each
anagram?

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Perceiving order in
random events
People perceive patterns
to make sense of their
world.
Even in random, unrelated
data people often find order,
because random sequences
often do not look random.
People trust their intuition
more than they should
because intuitive thinking is
flawed.
During the 2010 World Cup, a
German octopus—Paul, “the
oracle of Oberhausen”—selected
the right box and correctly
predicted the outcomes of
Germany’s matches with Spain.
Random or remarkable?
Roland Weihrauch/dpa/picture
-
alliance/Newscom

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The Need for Psychological Science
Why is intuition overused and errors made?
Hindsight bias, overconfidence, and our tendency to
perceive patterns in random events often lead us to
overestimate our intuition.(sixth sense ,guess )
But scientific inquiry can help us sift reality from
illusion. (mis conception)

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The Scientific Attitude
Thinking critically
Critical thinking refers to a more careful style of
forming and evaluating knowledge than simply using
intuition.
In addition to the scientific method, critical thinking
helps develop more effective and accurate ways to
figure out what makes people do, think, and feel the
things they do.

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CRITICAL
THINKING:
Analyzing, rather
than simply
accepting,
information
Determining if flaw in
information collection exists
Considering alternative
explanations for facts or
results
Searching for hidden
assumption and decide
if you agree
Looking for hidden bias,
politics, values, or
personal connections
Discarding personal
assumptions and biases
and view the evidence

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The Scientific Method
Scientific method is the process of testing
ideas about the world by
Setting up situations that test our ideas
If the data do not fit our ideas, then ideas are modified and
tested again.
Making careful, organized observations
Analyzing whether the data fit with our ideas

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Getting to the truth:
The Scientific Method
The scientific method is the process of
testing our ideas about the world by:
setting up
situations that
test our ideas.
making careful,
organized
observations.
analyzing
whether the data
fit with our ideas.
If the data don’t fit our ideas, then we modify
our ideas, and test again.

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The Scientific Method
Theory
Explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes
observations and predicts behaviors or events
Hypothesis
Testable prediction, often implied by a theory
Operational definition
Carefully worded statement of the exact procedures (operations)
used in a research study
Replication
Repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different
participants in different situations, to see whether the basic
finding extends to other participants and circumstances

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Theory: the big picture
Example of a
theory: “All ADHD
symptoms are a
reaction to eating
sugar.”
A theory, in the
language of
science, is a set
of principles, built
on observations
and other
verifiable facts,
that explains
some
phenomenon and
predicts its future
behavior.

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Hypotheses: informed predictions
“Testable” means that the hypothesis
is stated in a way that we could
make observations to find out if it is
true.
A hypothesisis a
testable prediction
consistent with
our theory.
What would be a prediction from
the “All ADHD is about sugar”
theory?
One hypothesis: “If a kid gets sugar, the kid will act more
distracted, impulsive, and hyper.”
To test the “All” part of the theory: “ADHD symptoms
will continue for some kids even after sugar is removed
from the diet.”

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The next/final step in the scientific
method:
Replication
You could introduce a small change in the study,
e.g. trying the ADHD/sugar test on college
students instead of elementary students.
Replicating research
means trying it again
using the same
operational definitions
of the concepts and
procedures.

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The Scientific Method

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Research Process:
the depression
example

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Part 4The Scientific Methods
Research Strategies
1.Description
2.Correlation Causation
3.Experiments

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The Scientific Method
Testing hypothesis and refining theories
Description
Correlation
Experiments

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Research Strategies: Description
Descriptive research is a systematic, objective
observation of people
The goal is to provide a clear, accurate picture of
people’s behaviors, thoughts, and attributes

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Description
Case studies
•Examines one
individual in
depth
•Provides fruitful
ideas
•Cannot be used
to generalize
Naturalistic
observations
•Records behavior
in natural
environment
•Describes but
does not explain
behavior
•Can be revealing
Surveys and
interviews
•Examines many
cases in less
depth
•Wording effect
•Random
sampling
•Utilizes random
sampling of
population for
best results

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Observing
“natural”
behavior means
just watching (and
taking notes), and
not trying to
change anything.
This method can
be used to study
more than one
individual, and to
find truths that
apply to a broader
population.
Naturalistic Observation

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The Survey
Definition:A method of
gathering information
about many people’s
thoughts or behaviors
through self-report
rather than observation.
Keys to getting useful
information:
Be careful about the
wordingof questions
Only question
randomly sampled
people
Wording effects
the results you get
from a survey can
be changed by
your word
selection.
Example:
Q: Do you have
motivation to
study hard for
this course?
Q: Do you feel a
desire to study
hard for this
course?

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Research Strategies: Correlation
General Definition:an observation that two
traits or attributes are related to each other
(thus, they are “co”-related)
Scientific definition: a measure of how closely
two factors vary together, or how well you can
predict a change in one from observing a
change in the other

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Correlation and Causation
No matter how strong the relationship,
correlation does not prove causation.
Correlation indicates the possibility of a cause-
effect relationship, but does not prove it.

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The fewer hours the
boy was allowed to
sleep, the more
episodes of
aggression he
displayed.
Examples
Correlation
Children in a
classroom who
were dressed in
heavier clothes
were more likely to
fall asleep than
those wearing
lighter clothes.
The greater the
number of
Facebook friends,
the less time was
spent studying.

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THREE POSSIBLE CAUSE -EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS
People low in self-esteem are more likely to report
depression than are those high in self-esteem. One
possible explanation of this negative correlation is that a bad
self-image causes depressed feelings. But, as the diagram
indicates, other cause-effect relationships are possible.

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Correlation Coefficient
The correlation coefficient is a numberrepresenting the strengthand directionof
correlation.
The strengthof the relationshiprefers to how close the dots are to a straight line, which
means one variable changes exactly as the other one does; this number varies from 0.00 to
+/-1.00.
Thedirectionof the correlation can be positive(both variables increase together) or
negative(as one goes up, the other goes down).
+ 1.00 -1.00 0.00
Perfect
positive
correlation
Perfect
negative
correlation
No
relationship,
no correlation
Guess the Correlation Coefficients

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Correlation
Positive correlation (between 0 and +1.00)
Indicates a direct relationship, meaning that two things
increase together or decrease together
Negative correlation (between 0 and −1.00)
Indicates an inverse relationship: As one thing increases,
the other decreases.

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If self-esteem correlates with depression,
there are still numerous possible causal links:

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Research Strategies: Experimentation
With experiments, researchers can focus on
the possible effects of one or more factors in
several ways.
Manipulating the factors of interest to
determine their effects
Holding constant (“controlling”) other factors
Experimental group and control group

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3. Experimentation
Example: removing
sugar from the diet
of children with
ADHD to see if it
makes a difference
In the
depression/self-
esteem example:
trying interventions
that improve self-
esteem to see if they
cause a reduction in
depression
Experimentation
: manipulating
( controlling) one
factor in a situation
to determine its
effect

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Experimentation
Variables
Independent variable in
an experiment
Confounding variable in
an experiment
Dependent variable in
an experiment
•Factor that is manipulated; the
variable whose effect is being
studied
•Factor other than the
independent variable that might
produce an effect
•Factor that is measured; the
variable that may change when
the independent variable is
manipulated
•If we test the ADHD/sugar hypothesis:
•Sugar = Cause = Independent Variable
•ADHD = Effect = Dependent Variable

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The variable we are able to manipulate
independently of what the other variables are
doing is called theindependent variable (IV).
•If we test the ADHD/sugar hypothesis:
•Sugar = Cause = Independent Variable
•ADHD = Effect = Dependent Variable
The variable we expect to experience a change
which depends on the manipulation we’re
doing is called the dependent variable (DV).
•Did ice cream sales cause a rise in violence, or vice
versa? There might be a confounding variable:
temperature.
The other variables that might have an effect
on the dependent variableare confounding
variables.
Naming the variables

34. Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Forexample, in an experiment to see the effect
of sleep deprivation(less sleep) on test
performance, sleep deprivation would be
theindependent variable.And test
performance would be dependent Variable.

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Experimental & Control Group
An experimental group is a test sample or the
group that receives an experimental procedure.
This group is exposed to changes in the
independent variable being tested by the
experimenter.
A control group is the group that receive no
treatment. Its a group of participants having the
same conditions as an experimental group.

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Comparing Research Methods
Research
Method
Basic Purpose How Conducted What Is Manipulated Weaknesses
Descriptive
To observe and
record behavior
Do case studies,
naturalistic
observations, or
surveys
Nothing
No control of
variables; single
cases may be
misleading
Correlational
To detect naturally
occurring
relationships; to
assess how well
one variable
predicts another
Collect data on two
or more variables;
no manipulation
Nothing
Cannot specify
cause and effect
Experimental
To explore cause
and effect
Manipulate one or
more factors; use
random
assignment
The independent
variable(s)
Sometimes not
feasible; results
may not generalize
to other contexts;
not ethical to
manipulate certain
variables