Genius Forecasting

1. OCT 2014 Aliasghar Abbasi Forecasting Methods Genius Forecasting Intuition and Vision Mohsen Bahrami

2. 2 I. History of the Method II. What are Genius Forecasting, Intuition and Vision III. How to do it How to find those of insight How to stimulate your own insight IV. Strengths and Weaknesses of the Method Table of Contents

3. 3 Leaders today and throughout history relied on advice from wise ones with great insight . Probably the most famous lineage of genius forecasters was the Greek Oracle tradition in Delphi. Imagination is more important than knowledge. -Albert Einstein History Genius Forecasting

4. 4 Genius forecasting, intuition and visioning are all connected with somehow foreseeing and visualizing futures. These methods recognize the importance of imagination. History Genius Forecasting Imagination is more important than knowledge. -Albert Einstein

5. 5 Genius forecasting is an unspecified set of processes used by geniuses to arrive at statements about the future. Imagination is more important than knowledge. -Albert Einstein What is Genius Forecasting? Section 2 Genius Forecasting

6. 6 The terms intuition or gut feeling are used when it would be far too complex to explain how one came to some insight about future possibilities. Imagination is more important than knowledge. -Albert Einstein What is Intuition? Section 2 Intuition Intuition may be the only useful source of information to forecast behavior of a chaotic system.

7. 7 A vision is a statement of the preferred future that an organization or community wants to create. Imagination is more important than knowledge. -Albert Einstein What is Vision? Section 2 Vision Visions of the future are the stimulus to change the present.

8. 8 If you believe that those of great vision are born, not made by an education or the mastery of mental techniques, then the question of how to do genius forecasting becomes: how can you find such people and their vision? How to d o it Section 3 How to find those of insight Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid. -Albert Einstein

9. 9 Prediction Markets. How to d o it Section 3 How to find those of insight Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid. -Albert Einstein

10. 10 Search literature and Internet. How to d o it Section 3 How to find those of insight Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid. -Albert Einstein

11. 11 Referrals from wise ones. How to d o it Section 3 How to find those of insight Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid. -Albert Einstein

12. 12 Recommendations from institutions, organizations, and directories. How to d o it Section 3 How to find those of insight Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid. -Albert Einstein

13. 13 Observations at conferences and other gatherings of creative people. How to d o it Section 3 How to find those of insight Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid. -Albert Einstein

14. 14 Hold contests for genius forecasting and vision. How to d o it Section 3 How to find those of insight Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid. -Albert Einstein

15. 15 Follow current events. How to d o it Section 3 How to find those of insight Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration. -Thomas A. Edison

16. 16 Access public Delphis through newspapers, radio, and/or television. How to d o it Section 3 How to find those of insight Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration. -Thomas A. Edison

17. 17 If you believe subjective forecasting can be learned, then the question of how to do it becomes: what are the methods identified in the literature and used by futurists . How to d o it Section 3 How to stimulate your own insight Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration. -Thomas A. Edison

18. 18 Reading diverse material. How to d o it Section 3 How to stimulate your own insight Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration. -Thomas A. Edison

19. 19 Guessing. How to d o it Section 3 How to stimulate your own insight Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration. -Thomas A. Edison

20. 20 Opposite Acting and Thinking. How to d o it Section 3 How to stimulate your own insight We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. -Albert Einstein

21. 21 Simulation and Games. How to d o it Section 3 How to stimulate your own insight We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. -Albert Einstein

22. 22 Meditation. How to d o it Section 3 How to stimulate your own insight We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. -Albert Einstein

23. 23 Perceptual exercises, dreams and thought experiments. How to d o it Section 3 How to stimulate your own insight We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. -Albert Einstein

24. 24 Extra dimensionality . How to d o it Section 3 How to stimulate your own insight We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. -Albert Einstein

25. 25 Internships. How to d o it Section 3 How to stimulate your own insight We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. -Albert Einstein

26. 26 I t cuts time and costs. Strengths and Weakness of the Method Section 4 STRENGHTS We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. -Albert Einstein

27. 27 H ow do you find a reliable genius? Strengths and Weaknesses of the Method Section 4 WEAKNESSES How can you know a genius forecast is good or not? We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. -Albert Einstein

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