global disaster trends- emerging risks of disaster- climate change

Disaster risk trends are a measure of the sustainability of development.

Trend analysis helps us to understand patterns of disaster risk and, consequently, whether disaster risk reduction is being effective.

Using disaster trends to inform policy and practice requires a good understanding of the limits of these trends.

The pattern the trend displays (rising, falling or fluctuating) is only as real as the amount, quality and reliability of the data used. For instance, patterns of disaster losses may actually reflect a number of factors unrelated to disaster risk, including the time period over which they are measured and improvements in disaster risk reporting.

In order to account for these problems, analysts determine the statistical significance of the trend.

1. SHANTILAL SHAH GOVERMENT ENGINEERING COLLEGE Mechanical Engineering Department Prof. U.A. PATEL SIR Guided By :- Roll No Enrollment No Name 2096 170433119003 Bavaria Preet K. 2097 170433119004 Chaudhari Brijal I. 2098 170433119006 Chavda Mayur J. 2099 170433119008 Doshi Paras S. 2100 170433119009 Hingu Ravi K.

2. Subject name :- Disaster Management. Subject code :- 2150003 TOPIC NAME :- global disaster trends- emerging risks of disaster- climate change

3. Global Disaster Trends. Disaster risk trends are a measure of the sustainability of development. Trend analysis helps us to understand patterns of disaster risk and, consequently, whether disaster risk reduction is being effective. Using disaster trends to inform policy and practice requires a good understanding of the limits of these trends. The pattern the trend displays (rising, falling or fluctuating) is only as real as the amount, quality and reliability of the data used. For instance, patterns of disaster losses may actually reflect a number of factors unrelated to disaster risk, including the time period over which they are measured and improvements in disaster risk reporting. In order to account for these problems, analysts determine the statistical significance of the trend .

4. Hazard trends(1) The graph on the last slide shows that the number of reported disasters has risen significantly in recent years. Part of this rise is likely to be due to more accurate recording and better communications with isolated regions. Note the rapid rise since around 1960, when satellite remote sensing and global communications began. Population growth has led to more people living in potentially hazardous locations. This means there are greater numbers at risk. Many of these people at risk live in the developing world, and are vulnerable due to their low coping capacity.

5. Hazard trends(2) Some types of disaster show clearer trends than others. The graph on the last slide compares trends in three disaster types. The trend for earthquakes is fairly stable. There is no evidence that the number of earthquake events is increasing. There are likely to have been more people in earthquake-prone areas in 2000 than in 1980, and this would explain the slight rise in disasters. There is a clearer upward trend for floods and wind storms. This may indicate an increase in the vulnerable population and a rise in the number of hazardous events . It could be the result of global climate change and/or other environmental changes .

6. Emerging d isater Historically, dealing with disasters focused on emergency response, but towards the end of the 20th century it was increasingly recognised that disasters are not natural and that it is only by reducing and managing conditions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability that we can prevent losses and alleviate the impacts of disasters. Since we cannot reduce the severity of natural hazards, the main opportunity for reducing risk lies in reducing vulnerability and exposure.

7. Reducing these two components of risk requires identifying and reducing the underlying drivers of risk, which are particularly related to poor economic and urban development choices and practice, degradation of the environment, poverty and inequality and climate change, which create and exacerbate conditions of  hazard,exposure amd vulnerability. Addressing these underlying risk drivers will reduce disaster risk, lessen the impacts of climate change and, consequently, maintain the sustainability of development (UNISDR, 2015a).

8. Climate change Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of  weather  patterns when that change lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years). Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather within the context of longer-term average conditions. Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes, variations in  solar radiation  received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions. Certain human activities have been identified as primary causes of ongoing climate change, often referred to as global warming`.

9. A climate record extending deep into the Earth's past has been assembled, and continues to be built up, based on geological evidence from borehole temperature profiles, cores removed from deep accumulations of ice, floral and faunal records, glacial and  periglacial  processes, stable-isotope and other analyses of sediment layers, and records of past sea levels. More recent data are provided by the instrumental record. General circulation models, based on the physical sciences, are often used in theoretical approaches to match past climate data, make future projections, and link causes and effects in climate change . Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcings  or "forcing mechanisms". [5]   These can be either "internal" or "external". Internal forcing mechanisms are natural processes within the climate system itself (e.g., the  thermohaline circulation ). External forcing mechanisms can be either anthropogenic - caused by humans - (e.g. increased emissions of greenhouse gases and dust) or natural.

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