Global Environmental Politics

1. Global Environmental PoliticsGlobal Environmental Politics
Josh GellersJosh Gellers
Global IssuesGlobal Issues
May 26, 2009May 26, 2009
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Rush PR News
Personal photo

4. AgendaAgenda
Climate ChangeClimate Change
Science and the IPCCScience and the IPCC
Impacts and CostsImpacts and Costs
Montreal ProtocolMontreal Protocol
Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol
Global Environmental PolicyGlobal Environmental Policy

5. Climate ChangeClimate Change
Science, Impacts, and CostsScience, Impacts, and Costs

6. Climate Change and Global WarmingClimate Change and Global Warming
Climate changeClimate change refers to any significant change in measures of refers to any significant change in measures of
climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an
extended period (decades or longer). Climate change may result extended period (decades or longer). Climate change may result
from:from:
natural factors, such as changes in the sun's intensity or slow changes natural factors, such as changes in the sun's intensity or slow changes
in the Earth's orbit around the sun; in the Earth's orbit around the sun;
natural processes within the climate system (e.g. changes in ocean natural processes within the climate system (e.g. changes in ocean
circulation); circulation);
human activities that change the atmosphere's composition (e.g. human activities that change the atmosphere's composition (e.g.
through burning fossil fuels) and the land surface (e.g. deforestation, through burning fossil fuels) and the land surface (e.g. deforestation,
reforestation, urbanization, desertification, etc.) reforestation, urbanization, desertification, etc.)
Global warmingGlobal warming is an average increase in the temperature of the is an average increase in the temperature of the
atmosphere near the Earth's surface and in the troposphere, which atmosphere near the Earth's surface and in the troposphere, which
can contribute to changes in global climate patterns. can contribute to changes in global climate patterns.
Global warming can occur from a variety of causes, both natural and Global warming can occur from a variety of causes, both natural and
human induced. human induced.
In common usage, "global warming" often refers to the warming that can In common usage, "global warming" often refers to the warming that can
occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases from occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases from
human activities. (US EPA)human activities. (US EPA)
NASA Climate Change Animation

9. Radiative Forcing of GHGsRadiative Forcing of GHGs
Source: IPCC TAR

10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC: a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the IPCC: a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988
Composed of:Composed of:
Governments: the IPCC is open to all member countries of Governments: the IPCC is open to all member countries of
WMO and UNEPWMO and UNEP
Scientists: hundreds of scientists all over the world contribute to Scientists: hundreds of scientists all over the world contribute to
the work of the IPCC as authors, contributors and reviewersthe work of the IPCC as authors, contributors and reviewers
People: as United Nations body, the IPCC work aims at the People: as United Nations body, the IPCC work aims at the
promotion of the United Nations human development goals (promotion of the United Nations human development goals (
http://www.ipcc.ch/about/index.htmhttp://www.ipcc.ch/about/index.htm))
Publishes comprehensive assessment reportsPublishes comprehensive assessment reports
2007: IPCC releases Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) 2007: IPCC releases Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

13. Humans and ClimateHumans and Climate
Emissions Emissions
Greenhouse Gases & AerosolsGreenhouse Gases & Aerosols
Fossil fuels (Personal & Industry)Fossil fuels (Personal & Industry)
Land useLand use
Land use changesLand use changes
AgricultureAgriculture
DeforestationDeforestation
UrbanizationUrbanization
Water management & reservoirsWater management & reservoirs

15. Climate Change and Global WarmingClimate Change and Global Warming
Scientists: Fail to make a clear distinction Scientists: Fail to make a clear distinction
between climate change and BAUbetween climate change and BAU
Media: Balance, integrity, sensationalismMedia: Balance, integrity, sensationalism
Special Interests: Disinformation Special Interests: Disinformation
campaigns, focus on profitscampaigns, focus on profits
Public: Confused, uninterestedPublic: Confused, uninterested
Government: Post-9/11 withdrawal from Government: Post-9/11 withdrawal from
Kyoto, Obama promises change, Kyoto, Obama promises change,
American Clean Energy and Security ActAmerican Clean Energy and Security Act

16. Climate Change: UncertaintiesClimate Change: Uncertainties
Strength/tolerance of feedbacks: water Strength/tolerance of feedbacks: water
vapor feedback, clouds & precipitation vapor feedback, clouds & precipitation
efficiencyefficiency
Rate of change: abrupt climate changeRate of change: abrupt climate change
Changes in magnitude of intraseasonal-to-Changes in magnitude of intraseasonal-to-
interannual variability: ENSO, NAOinterannual variability: ENSO, NAO
Local effects: i.e. drought in CaliforniaLocal effects: i.e. drought in California

17. Climate ChangeClimate Change

18. Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change Impacts

19. Impacts: HurricanesImpacts: Hurricanes
A likely increase in hurricane intensity with A likely increase in hurricane intensity with
rising tropical SSTsrising tropical SSTs
Regions of hurricane origin likely to remain Regions of hurricane origin likely to remain
unchangedunchanged
Uncertainty surrounding impacts of Uncertainty surrounding impacts of
increasing SSTs on hurricane frequencyincreasing SSTs on hurricane frequency

20. Impacts: HurricanesImpacts: Hurricanes
Source: IPCC TAR

21. Impacts: HurricanesImpacts: Hurricanes
Personal photos

22. Impacts: HealthImpacts: Health
• Projected risk of malaria transmission by 2020, compared with average risk during 1961-1990.
• Assumption: Global temperature increase of 2ºF no human efforts to contain the spread of the
disease (Source: Pim Martens, Maastricht University)

23. Impacts: Global CostsImpacts: Global Costs
Stern Review (2001)Stern Review (2001)
Extreme events Extreme events (storms, hurricanes, (storms, hurricanes,
typhoons, floods, droughts, heat waves)typhoons, floods, droughts, heat waves)
0.5-1% of GDP per year by 2050 ($500 0.5-1% of GDP per year by 2050 ($500
billion to $1 trillion)billion to $1 trillion)
5-10% increase in hurricane 5-10% increase in hurricane
strength strength  2x U.S. annual 2x U.S. annual
damages ($100-$150 billion)damages ($100-$150 billion)
annual U.K. flood losses could annual U.K. flood losses could
increase from 0.1% to 0.2-0.4% of increase from 0.1% to 0.2-0.4% of
GDP ($23 billion to $47-94 billion)GDP ($23 billion to $47-94 billion)
heat waves will become common by heat waves will become common by
mid-century (2003 Europe - $15 mid-century (2003 Europe - $15
billion) billion)

24. Impacts: Global CostsImpacts: Global Costs
Direct impacts on the environment & Direct impacts on the environment &
human healthhuman health
5 - 11% loss5 - 11% loss
Climate feedbacksClimate feedbacks
5 - 7%5 - 7%
Disproportionate impactsDisproportionate impacts
25% greater cost25% greater cost
TOTAL ~ 20% reduction in GDPTOTAL ~ 20% reduction in GDP

25. Impacts: Global CostsImpacts: Global Costs
Solution?Solution?
Stabilizing at 550ppm COStabilizing at 550ppm CO
22e likely to require e likely to require
investment of 1% of global GDP by 2050 investment of 1% of global GDP by 2050
““the basic conclusion…is that the costs of the basic conclusion…is that the costs of
strong and urgent action to avoid serious strong and urgent action to avoid serious
impacts from climate change are impacts from climate change are
substantially less than the damages substantially less than the damages
thereby avoided” (Stern Review, 2001)thereby avoided” (Stern Review, 2001)

26. Hockey Stick ModelHockey Stick Model

27. Hockey Stick: Affirmative ViewHockey Stick: Affirmative View
Validity Claims OverblownValidity Claims Overblown
- Modest title- Modest title
- Recognition of proxy limitations- Recognition of proxy limitations
Scientific ConsensusScientific Consensus
- Principle endorsement of NAS- Principle endorsement of NAS
Conclusion: Conclusion: Uncertainties are stated and the Uncertainties are stated and the
model is undergoing continuous revision. model is undergoing continuous revision.
The Hockey Stick model does provide an The Hockey Stick model does provide an
adequate resource for understanding the range adequate resource for understanding the range
of warming we may face in the future.of warming we may face in the future.

28. Hockey Stick: Skeptical ViewHockey Stick: Skeptical View
 Uncertainties in statistical methods:Uncertainties in statistical methods:
 Based on insufficient data and flawed stat analysis Based on insufficient data and flawed stat analysis
(McKitrick and McIntyre, Wegman report)(McKitrick and McIntyre, Wegman report)
 Mann concludes that higher resolution data are Mann concludes that higher resolution data are
needed before ‘more confident conclusions can be needed before ‘more confident conclusions can be
reached’reached’
 With flaws in model corrected, curves in ‘stick’ With flaws in model corrected, curves in ‘stick’
reappear, recent temp changes no longer look reappear, recent temp changes no longer look
extraordinary (Bob Tippee, extraordinary (Bob Tippee, Oil & Gas Journal; Oil & Gas Journal; Jul Jul
11, 2005)11, 2005)

29. Multi-model ReconstructionMulti-model Reconstruction

30. Climate Change: UncertaintiesClimate Change: Uncertainties
Difference in recent surface and free Difference in recent surface and free
atmosphere trends (atmosphere trends (ObservationsObservations))
Size of internal variability (Size of internal variability (ModelsModels))
Natural forcing (Natural forcing (NatureNature))
Anthropogenic forcing, especially aerosols (Anthropogenic forcing, especially aerosols (ManMan))
Estimate of response or sensitivity (Estimate of response or sensitivity (ModelsModels))

31. Montreal ProtocolMontreal Protocol
The Paradigm of The Paradigm of
Global Environmental PolicyGlobal Environmental Policy

32. Ozone RegimeOzone Regime
1930s1930s CFCs are inventedCFCs are invented
19741974 CFC – Ozone Theory PublishedCFC – Ozone Theory Published
19771977 First International MeetingFirst International Meeting
1977 – 19811977 – 1981 Domestic Controls:Domestic Controls:
U.S., Canada, Nordic Countries, European CommunityU.S., Canada, Nordic Countries, European Community
19791979 Margaret Thatcher ElectedMargaret Thatcher Elected
19801980 Ronald Reagan ElectedRonald Reagan Elected

33. Ozone RegimeOzone Regime
19821982 Intergovernmental Negotiating Intergovernmental Negotiating
Committee formed Committee formed
19831983 “Toronto Group” Proposal “Toronto Group” Proposal
19851985 Ozone Hole Discovery published Ozone Hole Discovery published
19851985 Vienna Convention Vienna Convention
Framework treatyFramework treaty
No controlsNo controls
No mention of CFCsNo mention of CFCs

34. Ozone RegimeOzone Regime
19871987 Montreal ProtocolMontreal Protocol
Centerpiece of the regimeCenterpiece of the regime
50% cuts on 5 CFCs and 3 Halons by 200050% cuts on 5 CFCs and 3 Halons by 2000
10-year grace party for developing countries (Article 5)10-year grace party for developing countries (Article 5)
Assessment panelsAssessment panels
Amendment and adjustment proceduresAmendment and adjustment procedures

35. Global Ozone Layer Protection PolicyGlobal Ozone Layer Protection Policy
Key ComponentsKey Components
1985 Vienna Convention1985 Vienna Convention
1987 Montreal Protocol1987 Montreal Protocol
Amendments and Adjustments to the Protocol (1990, Amendments and Adjustments to the Protocol (1990,
1992, 1995, 1997, 1999)1992, 1995, 1997, 1999)
Meetings of Parties (MOP) (Binding decisions)Meetings of Parties (MOP) (Binding decisions)
Multilateral FundMultilateral Fund
Assessment Panels: Assessment Panels:
Science; Environmental Effects; Technical and EconomicScience; Environmental Effects; Technical and Economic
Implementation Committee (non-compliance)Implementation Committee (non-compliance)
Implementing Agencies: Implementing Agencies: UNEP, World Bank, UNDP, UNEP, World Bank, UNDP,
UNIDOUNIDO

36. Regime and Policy StructureRegime and Policy Structure
Pre-emptive Pre-emptive (at least originally)(at least originally)
Control Measures - Clear, Strong, Simple, Binding, Total Control Measures - Clear, Strong, Simple, Binding, Total
Phase-Out Goal, Differentiated ResponsibilitiesPhase-Out Goal, Differentiated Responsibilities
Ability to Grow in Response to New InformationAbility to Grow in Response to New Information
Assessment PanelsAssessment Panels
Financial Mechanism - Multilateral FundFinancial Mechanism - Multilateral Fund
Trade SanctionsTrade Sanctions
Non-Compliance ProceduresNon-Compliance Procedures
UNEP as designated regime organizationUNEP as designated regime organization
Integrated Meetings and InstitutionsIntegrated Meetings and Institutions

37. Source: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Montreal Protocol: Results

38. The Success of the Ozone RegimeThe Success of the Ozone Regime
Global membershipGlobal membership
Strong set of agreed upon rules and implementing Strong set of agreed upon rules and implementing
institutionsinstitutions
Production and consumption of almost all ODS (CFCs, Production and consumption of almost all ODS (CFCs,
etc.) declining on global scaleetc.) declining on global scale
Production and Consumption of CFCs and several other Production and Consumption of CFCs and several other
ODS nearly eliminated in OECD countries, as requiredODS nearly eliminated in OECD countries, as required
Atmospheric concentrations of most ODS stabilized or Atmospheric concentrations of most ODS stabilized or
droppingdropping
Developing countries largely met CFC freeze in 2000 Developing countries largely met CFC freeze in 2000
and most are expected to meet future reductionsand most are expected to meet future reductions
Institutions working well (or well enough): Multilateral Institutions working well (or well enough): Multilateral
Fund; Assessment panels; Non-compliance proceduresFund; Assessment panels; Non-compliance procedures
Seen as precedent for future treatiesSeen as precedent for future treaties

39. Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol
Towards a Climate Change RegimeTowards a Climate Change Regime

40. Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol
Global agreement to address global Global agreement to address global
warming; entered into force in 2005warming; entered into force in 2005
Commits countries to reducing emissions Commits countries to reducing emissions
of 6 greenhouse gases (GHG) by at least of 6 greenhouse gases (GHG) by at least
5% from 1990 levels during the 2008-2012 5% from 1990 levels during the 2008-2012
commitment periodcommitment period
Covers more than 160 countries globally and over 55% of Covers more than 160 countries globally and over 55% of
GHG emissionsGHG emissions
The United States and Australia have not ratified the The United States and Australia have not ratified the
ProtocolProtocol

41. Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol
Three categories of signatories:Three categories of signatories:
Annex I: All industrialized countries (OECD) and Annex I: All industrialized countries (OECD) and
countries with economies in transition.countries with economies in transition. These have These have
legally binding obligations to reduce GHG emissionslegally binding obligations to reduce GHG emissions
Annex II: OECD countries only, with the obligation to:Annex II: OECD countries only, with the obligation to:
1) Provide financial and technical resources to 1) Provide financial and technical resources to
developing countries developing countries
2) Transfer environmentally friendly technology to 2) Transfer environmentally friendly technology to
countries with economies in transition countries with economies in transition
Non-Annex I: Developing and emerging countriesNon-Annex I: Developing and emerging countries
Includes China and India, second largest emitters in the Includes China and India, second largest emitters in the
worldworld
Least Developed Countries with special considerationLeast Developed Countries with special consideration

42. Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol
Three innovative flexibility mechanisms to Three innovative flexibility mechanisms to
lower the overall costs of achieving lower the overall costs of achieving
emissions targets:emissions targets:
Emissions TradingEmissions Trading
Joint Implementation (JI)Joint Implementation (JI)
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
Mechanisms “shall be supplemental to Mechanisms “shall be supplemental to
domestic actions” domestic actions” (A(Art. 6rt. 6))

43. Joint Implementation (JI)Joint Implementation (JI)
An Annex I country may implement an emission An Annex I country may implement an emission
reducing project or a project enhancing the reducing project or a project enhancing the
removal by sinks of GHGs in another Annex I removal by sinks of GHGs in another Annex I
countrycountry
After meeting the eligibility requirements and After meeting the eligibility requirements and
receiving approval by the host country, the receiving approval by the host country, the
project may be counted towardsproject may be counted towards Emission Emission
Reduction Units (ERUs), in compliance with the Reduction Units (ERUs), in compliance with the
sponsor country reduction goalsponsor country reduction goal
ERUs can be tradedERUs can be traded

44. Clean Development MechanismClean Development Mechanism
Allows Annex I countries to fund projects in non-Annex I Allows Annex I countries to fund projects in non-Annex I
countries, resulting in Certified Emission Reductions countries, resulting in Certified Emission Reductions
(CERs). (CERs). (Art 12)(Art 12)
CERs can be tradedCERs can be traded
Was added upon insistence from developing countries to Was added upon insistence from developing countries to
promote sustainable developmentpromote sustainable development
AimsAims are the dual objective of sustainable development are the dual objective of sustainable development
in developing countries and cost-effective reductions in in developing countries and cost-effective reductions in
developed countriesdeveloped countries
Sets aside portion of proceeds to pay administrative Sets aside portion of proceeds to pay administrative
costs and help developing countries with adaptation costs and help developing countries with adaptation
costscosts
World Map of CDM Projects

45. Global Environmental PolicyGlobal Environmental Policy
Lessons, Problems, and ProspectsLessons, Problems, and Prospects

46. International Environmental TreatiesInternational Environmental Treaties

47. Actors In Int’l Environmental PoliticsActors In Int’l Environmental Politics
Nation StatesNation States
International Organizations (IOs / IGOs)International Organizations (IOs / IGOs)
Multi-National CorporationsMulti-National Corporations
Environmental Non-Governmental Environmental Non-Governmental
Organizations (NGOs)Organizations (NGOs)
Scientific and Technical Bodies (Epistemic Scientific and Technical Bodies (Epistemic
communities)communities)
PeoplePeople

48. Obstacles to CooperationObstacles to Cooperation
Lowest-Common DenominatorLowest-Common Denominator
Slow Development And ImplementationSlow Development And Implementation
Large NumbersLarge Numbers
Difficulty of Making Effective Treaties Difficulty of Making Effective Treaties
High transaction costsHigh transaction costs
No pre-existing treaty creation, compliance or No pre-existing treaty creation, compliance or
enforcement mechanismsenforcement mechanisms
Scientific complexityScientific complexity
Issue linkagesIssue linkages
Unequal adjustment costsUnequal adjustment costs

49. Fostering CooperationFostering Cooperation
Haas, Keohane and Levy argue that the Haas, Keohane and Levy argue that the
process of creating and implementing process of creating and implementing
effective international environmental policy effective international environmental policy
requires the 3 C’s:requires the 3 C’s:
ConcernConcern
Contractual EnvironmentContractual Environment
CapacityCapacity

50. New Environmental Policy New Environmental Policy
Instruments (NEPIs):Instruments (NEPIs):
Non-regulatory tools of environmental policyNon-regulatory tools of environmental policy
1) Market based instruments (MBIs)1) Market based instruments (MBIs)
instruments that affect estimates of costs of alternative instruments that affect estimates of costs of alternative
actions open to economic agentsactions open to economic agents
2) Voluntary agreements (VAs)2) Voluntary agreements (VAs)
agreements between industry and public authorities on the agreements between industry and public authorities on the
achievement of environmental objectivesachievement of environmental objectives
3) Ecolabels3) Ecolabels
provide consumers with information about the environmental provide consumers with information about the environmental
impact of products and servicesimpact of products and services

51. Climate Change EthicsClimate Change Ethics
Who will pay?Who will pay?
Humanity today v. future generationsHumanity today v. future generations
Who is responsible?Who is responsible?
ScientistsScientists
MediaMedia
Special interestsSpecial interests
PoliticiansPoliticians
PublicPublic

52. Climate Change PolicyClimate Change Policy
A “good” policy should: A “good” policy should:
- address long time horizons and market dynamics- address long time horizons and market dynamics
- reflect a shared understanding of long-term goals- reflect a shared understanding of long-term goals
- be flexible- be flexible
- focus on mitigation and adaptation strategies- focus on mitigation and adaptation strategies
- distribute costs equitably- distribute costs equitably

53. Global Environmental GovernanceGlobal Environmental Governance
Changes to the system:Changes to the system:
Increased participationIncreased participation
New Actors (NGOs, indigenous groups)New Actors (NGOs, indigenous groups)
Increased privatizationIncreased privatization
Business partnerships (WBCSD, Ceres)Business partnerships (WBCSD, Ceres)
Increased segmentationIncreased segmentation
Subnational, national, regional, and global policySubnational, national, regional, and global policy