Hero biz plan slides

1. PjtAhil P
ro
j
ec
t

A
rc
hi
pe
l
ago
Business Plan
1

2. Table of Contents
1. Where to Compete? 2
The Opportunity
2
.
The

Opportunity
3. Adapta Strategy 4. Route to Market
5. Medical Marketing
6. Medical Insurance / ‘Free Services’ 7. Financials Appendices
2

3. 1Wh tC t? 1
.
Wh
ere
t
o
C
ompe
t
e
?
33

4. The Market IMF Market -Volume
Ex tra pola tion
Market growth IFFO& GUM, 2005- 2009* Volume (‘000 Tonnage):120
CAGR:
5.2%
Value (Bio US $): 1.128 in 2009
Ex tra pola tion
CAGR: 15 7%
61.72
84.44
5.2%
8.2%
84.44
61.72
415 16
781.86
15
.
7%
17.1%
415 16
781.86
GUM
12.0513.63
20.12
21.55
1.7%
3.1 %
85.40
140.13
129.92
206.41
415
.
16
GUM
FOF
IF
12.3% 13.2%
415
.
16
FOF IF
Vol Cont%
2005 2009 Q1-2010
2005 2009
2005 2009
Value Cont %
2005 2009 Q1-2010
GUM :66% -> 71% -> 75%
FO : 21% 18% 15%
IF :13% 11% 10%
GUM: 66% => 70%=> 66%
FO : 20% => 18% =>19%
IF :14% => 12% =>15%
4
Note: S4 = 15% of IMF-market Volume
Source: Nielsen Retail Audit (Indonesia Urban Grocer y),Extrapolation HP :0,75 MP : 0.65 LP:0.55

5. The Com
p
etition SGM Ver
y
dominant in IF/FOF
p
y
IF
Volume (Kg) Value (Mill Rp)
07 08 09 07 08 09
SGM43% 45% 48% 28% 31% 33%
Lt
20%
17%
16%
16%
15%
14%
L
ac
t
ogen
20%
17%
16%
16%
15%
14%
Bendera7% 8% 7% 5% 6% 5%
Bebelac4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7%
Nutrilon5% 5% 5% 9% 10% 10%
Volume (Kg)
Value (Mill Rp)
FOF
Volume

(Kg)
Value

(Mill

Rp)
07 08 09 07 08 09
SGM41% 42% 46% 29% 31% 33%
Lactogen26% 24% 20% 23% 23% 19%
Bendera7% 8% 8% 6% 7% 7%
Bebelac4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6%
Chil-mil7% 6% 5% 12% 11% 9%
GUM
Volume (Kg) Value (Mill Rp)
07 08 09 07 08 09
Dancow33% 33% 32% 26% 27% 26%
Bendera19% 20% 20% 14% 15% 15%
SGM18% 19% 19% 12% 13% 13%
Bebelac4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6%
Nutrilon
3%
3%
3%
5%
5%
6%
•
Dancow dominates GUM => market leader for IMF
• SGM dominates IMF with a rather flat (‘Precision Nutrition’) yet low cost image
5
Nutrilon
3%
3%
3%
5%
5%
6%

6. The Market Pregnancymarketdata
8%
Pregnancy

market

data
MarketShares
Distribution of Packaging Sizes
900
509
590
108
257
440
By Volume
Av
g
.
p
rice
63%
27%
2%
8%
71,9
145,5
134,5
105,
150,2
63,4
gp
(IDR/kg)
50.8%
56.1%
60.0%
63%
150-200 gr 360-400 gr 600 gr (only Prenagen) Other
6.3%
5
%
%
30 0%40.0%
50.0%
24%
2%
6%
%
19.4%
%
26
%
%
20.8%
%
20.3%
%
10.0%
20.0%
30
.0%
By Value
68%
150-200 gr 360-400 gr
1.2%
1.6%
0.1%
0.6%
1.6%
0.0%
0.0%
Sun
Anmum
Nutrima
Lactamil
enagen
Gizikita
360-400
gr
600 gr (only Prenagen) Ot he
r
A
N
La
Pe
Volume
Value

7. The Consumer Consumer Needs Segments* & SEC
Low Anxiety
A milk that has A milk that has
A milk that ensures A milk that ensures
Chatty
Exploring
Moms
Bebelac
complete complete
ingredients ingredients
allowing me allowing me
and my child to and my child to
enjoy and have enjoy and have
funfun An economical milk An economical milk
A

milk

that

ensures

A

milk

that

ensures

physical growth physical growth
and convenient to and convenient to
both child and both child and
mommom
Bendera
SGM
Role
Fulfillment
Goal
Orientation
that popular, used that popular, used
in the past and in the past and
easily available easily available
A milk that A milk that
provides all the provides all the
A superior A superior
product that product that guarantees a smart guarantees a smart
A milk that is premium A milk that is premium
and provides the best and provides the best
for the child for the child
Strivers
strugglers
Moms of th
Dancow
SGM
SEC-spread
Definition2008q1
A1 3501 &OVER
4%
provides

all

the

provides

all

the

elements to elements to
nourish and nourish and
protect the child protect the child
guarantees
a

smart

guarantees
a

smart

child, allows the mom to child, allows the mom to
exercise control over exercise control over
her babies future her babies future
strugglers

18%
th
e year
High
Clt l
A1

3501

&OVER
4%
A2 2501 - 35007%
B 1751 - 250015%
C1 1251 - 175023%
High
High

Pressure
Worrier
C
u
lt
ura
l

Progressives
27%
A-B SEC CD SEC
C2 901 - 125022%
D 601 - 90018%
E 600 & BELOW11%
A
nxiety
* Developed internally based on
several (competitive) studies
To keep in mind: Adapta-target: SEC C1, C2 & D + Striver Strugglers + Culturally Progressives

8. 2.THEOPPORTUNITY 2.

THE

OPPORTUNITY
8

9. The Opportunity –Distribution/Accessibility Dropping
Contribution of traditional trade dropping sharply due to distribution falling
Huge opportunity to improve accessibility, especially for lower SEC
Instant Flavor is showing the opposite distribut ion trend: consumer switch away from IMF
Lack of affordable SKU (in Rp 2500-range) both for cons umer, as well as traditional trade (running on cash)
61
15 15 15
1416
Trend Numeric Distribution IMF
Channel Contribution to IMF-sales (vol)
41
50
52
57
61
34
3031
28
26
24
20
17
15
13
Key Account Independent MT Provision
12
10 10
9
12
10 10
9
12
10 10
9
12
9
7
8
7
6
8
10
12
14
Total Inf ant For mula Low
Pr i c e
Starter Low Price
13
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
2
4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Starter

Low

Pr i c e
Follow On Low Price GUM Low Price
Trend Numeric Distribution Instant Flavour
54.0
51.0
44.0
46.0
49.0
43.0
39.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
34.0
32.0
26 0
31.0
33.0
Childr en Da n c o w
9
26
.
0
12.0
10.0
7.0
6.0
4.0
0
3.0
5.0
8.0 8.0
1.0 1.0 1.0
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
1.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Milo Bendera Ideal Boneeto Indomilk

10. The Opportunity 360 degree protection
Very high consumer interest (qualitative):
“We all know that a healthy child starts with a healthy mom . From my pregnancy all the way up
to his golden age, I want to
feel secure & choose the right nutrition
to make sure we are
both better
to

his

golden

age,

I

want

to

feel

secure

&

choose

the

right

nutrition

to

make

sure

we

are

both

better

protected & as healthy as possible.
To provide this protection, we introduc e Adapta, a range of highly nutritious milk formulas for
you & your child’s health.
Adapta contains mineral – proteins - AHA/DHA, is enriched with Nutradefense, and is proven
for 75 years in Europe & now tailor-fitted for Indonesian children.
Nutradefense contains GOS for optimal absorption of essential nutrients to boost better body
immunity and protection.
Protection for Adapta however goes beyond plain nutrition.
- We offer free & unbiased advice on nutrition & health care from trustable experts in your local
community to help you protect your baby and yourself (Ibu Adapta).
- Adapta also offers special medical insurance (was also tested as free medical services)that
builds up with each purchase of its products helping to
protect & take care of you & your baby
’s health
builds

up

with

each

purchase

of

its

products
,
helping

to

protect

&

take

care

of

you

&

your

baby s

health

care.
Adapta, nutritious & complete protection for healthy baby and moms.
Core interests:
- Absorption/Nutradefense - Single Sachet
- International/EU-brand/75 years - Price-level
- Free medical service/cost-saving - From/in the community
10

11. O
pp
ortunit
y
: “Free” Medical Services
pp y
-Common concerns of pregnant mom (3% of total hhds) and assistance in medical will
b BIG t it ith HIGH tt ti t if l t d i th i b
e a
BIG
oppor
t
un
it
y w
ith

HIGH
a
tt
rac
ti
on
t
o consumers,
if
on
ly
t
o re
d
uc
ing
th
e
ir
OoP-expenditure.
Nutrition for her and her baby
-
App
roach on Consume
r
-level:
pp
* Ibu Adapta & Free Medical-services for Adapta-customers
* Pregnant mom: Get proper consultation of what nutrition (includes vitamin)
needed
* Have proper check for pregnant mom (blood pressure, glucose level) to ensure
fitness for
normal delivery + for kid: (check baby’s heart beat, USG’s, etc.
* For the kids: Free (simple) medi cine for fever/diarrhea/dengue/etc.
* For the family: vouchers for in-patient/Puskasmas-consultation with every 3KG-
purchase

12. The O
pp
ortunit
y
New Route to Market
pp y
Basically all competitors are heavily inclined to a
*“fi d” t t t *

“fi
xe
d”
cos
t
s
t
ruc
t
ure
- Advertising to pull consumers
- (often) Paid listing fees to have product available
- Heavy & pay-rolled medical marketing-teams & related expenses - Sales force to run around -etc.
* and ‘fixed’ nation-wide relationships
- Retail
p
artners
p
- Distribution partners
Disruptive Adapta-RtM tries to: - Increase availibility
Avoid traditional channel approaches
-
Avoid

traditional

channel

approaches
- Incl. head-2-head & related cost
- Use & tap into the social structures
- Combined with a close to heart concept
Directly resonating with consumers
’
core concerns
-
Directly

resonating

with

consumers

core

concerns
12

13. 3.
ADAPTA
STRATEGY
3.

ADAPTA
STRATEGY
13

14. Overall Ada
p
ta Strate
gy
Core Elements
pgy
Become an Affordable, Accessible, Social & Sympathetic infant milk LOVE brand
Adapta The local hero, cater the need of less well-off
Through tackling consumers early on already in Pregnancy-stage With a strongly
competitive formula & range
With

a

strongly

competitive

formula

&

range

At a competitive price-level
By means of a new, disruptive Route to Market
Tapping into the social structures & relationships (in/from/by the local community)
With a strong 360
o
Protection-concept
That is directly
addressing core consumer concerns
(anxiety & OoP
-
expenditure)
That

is

directly

addressing

core

consumer

concerns

(anxiety

&

OoP
expenditure)
14

15. Overall Ada
p
ta Strate
gy

(
I
)
pgy()
Affordable: - Competitive price, low cash-outlay & single sachet
- Helping to reduce OoP-expense
Accessible: - Within 5km
2
& in your local Warung
- Brought to you by your I. Adapta
- Accessible from a physical & social (community) point of view (RT/RW)
Social: - Going beyond selling formulas
- Wife of RT/RW-head
- In your local community with local events Sympathetic - ‘Free’ medical services for customers (& free info/events for all)
- Free advise @ your doorstep
-
Helps the Indonesian who & where they really need it Helps

the

Indonesian

who

&

where

they

really

need

it
- Brings you good quality @ fair pr ices w/o the unnecessary thrills
- Positive word of mouth
The local hero, cater the need of less well-off
15

16. Overall Ada
p
ta Strate
gy

(
II
)
pgy()
Core target: SEC C1, C2 & D With a strong concept 360
o
Protection through:
fl
With

a

strong

concept

360
o
Protection

through:
-
f
ormu
las
- ‘free’ mdeical services
- free advice by a person you trust (RW/RT)
Entry via pregnancy-milk together with strong retention model:
Saving system for free medical services for customers
-
Saving

system

for

free

medical

services

for

customers
- LUPP for IMF & pregnancy low incidence usage (BF rather high first 6 mnths, yet supplement
feeding starts early on)
- Competitive pricing (& flavoring)
LOVE
-
brand: sympathetic, straight forward & close to you:
LOVE
brand:

sympathetic,

straight

forward

&

close

to

you:
- No fancy thrills: - No major advertising campaigns, but advice straight @ yr doorstep
- Not selling you stuff you don’t need, but (i.e.) 1 single pregn/lact-formula)
- Honest pricing & straight-forward portfolio
- Facilitating your cash-position (through lower sizing/pricing)
Off i th j t i l t ti f i f Ad t
t
-
Off
er
ing you more
th
an
jus
t
an econom
ica
l
t
ransac
ti
on:
f
ree serv
ices
f
or
Ad
ap
t
a-cus
t
omers
- More convenience/hygiene (multiple single sachets)
- In, from & by the community / the people you know & trust (Ibu Adapta)
- Winning over the hearts of the HCP-community (as we offer what Indonesia(ns) really need)
16

17. Overall Ada
p
ta Strate
gy

(
III
)
pgy()
Disruptive RtM: - Selected & co-operative Warungs
- Delivered through selected stockpoints
-
Avoiding the traditional channels & cost
-
structures
-
Avoiding

the

traditional

channels

&

cost
-
structures
- Avoiding head-2-head with key-competitor/risk of being outspent - Pulling consumers in by using & play ing at the local community structure
17

18. Pricin
g
Strate
gy
Ada
p
ta
ggyp
Capture target as early as possible through affordability by:
- Lower pricing Pregnancy (& throughout as matter of fact)
Lower cash
outlay/unit
price S1 (120gr + even single sachets)
-
Lower

cash
-
outlay/unit
-
price

S1

(120gr

+

even

single

sachets)
Apply (target group-related) market leader-benchmarking:
- SGM (IMF)
- Lactamil (Pregn.)
[
D 1 (GUM)]
[
-
D
ancow
1
+
(GUM)]
Signal Affordability & keep pricing simple /honest/straight forward for consumers
Same sizes throu
g
hout entire ran
g
e
(
exce
p
tion S3: hi
g
her volume
p
ack
)
gg(pgp)
Affordability through: - Lower cash-outlay/being cheaper
- Lower unit-size: 120gr. (+ even single sachets)
Where size-wise @ par w. SGM: price-index 96 – 99
Pregnancy price-index/kg vs. Lactamil: 94 - 97

Follow Lactamil
/SGM
pricing logic across stages

Follow

Lactamil
-
/SGM
-
pricing

logic

across

stages
Largely follow Lactamil-/SGM-price decent across stages
18

19. Proposed Adapta Pricing PROPOSED PRICING
Prices Pregnancy *Stage 1 & 2 Stage 3
in Rp. 
Adapta Per kg Lactamil Per kg Adapta Per kg SGM Per kg Adapta Per kg SGM Per kg 
4*30gr. 13.000108.33320.750/185gr 115.3009.50079.16711.500/150 gr 76.6669.00075.000 10500/150 kg 70.000
300 gr. 32.000106.66740.600/370gr 109.70020.00066.66720.900/300 gr 69.66619.00063.33319.400/300 gr 64.666
600 gr. 39.00065.00039.500/600 gr 65.83336.00060.00036.900/600
 gr 61.500
*Prenangen @ Rp. 34700 for 200gr. (173.500/kg) & RP. 64500 for 400 gr. (161.250/kg) 900 gr. 55.000 61.11156.000/900 gr62.222
Note: Single sachetsS1, S2 & S3 @ Rp. 2.500 & Single Pregn. @ Rp. 3.500
KG‐PRICE INDEX vs. SGM/Lactamil Preg
index/kg
S1&S2
IndexvsSGM/kg
S3
IndexvsSGM/kg
Preg
.‐
index/kg
S1
 &
 S2
‐
Index
 vs
. 
SGM/kg
S3
‐
Index
 vs
. 
SGM/kg
vs. Lactamil 185 gr. 94 120gr 103* 300gr 98
vs. Lactamil 370gr 97 300gr 96 600gr 98
600gr 99 900gr 98
*Compensatedbylowercash
outlay(&singlesachet)
*
 Compensated
 by
 lower
 cash
‐
outlay
 (&
 single
 sachet)
PRICE HIKES on KG‐base 120/150 gr Pr => S1* S1 => S2 S2 => S3
Adapta
73
100
95
Adapta
73
100
95
SGM/Lactamil 66 100 n.a.
300 gr
Adapta 63 100 95
SGM/Lactamil 64 100 93
600 gr
19
Adapta n.a. 100 92
SGM/Lactamil n.a. 100 93
* 120gr‐Price decline only seemsto odd out vs. SGM, yet is driven by lower per KG‐price on Pregn. & higher per KG S1‐price (which is 
compensated by lower cash‐outlay)

20. 4RtTMkt 4
.
R
ou
t
e
T
o
M
ar
k
e
t
2020

21. Route To Market Overall Framework
Factory
Goods + Invoicing Money collection
Area Manager
5% Logistic
Local Stockiest
3
rd
Party Logistics
Area Supervisor
Area

Manager
5%

Logistic
5% Cost of Sales Ratio
16% Cost of
Sales Ratio
Money Collectors
R1 Warung
Adapta Bikers
Ibu Adapta Consumers
6% Cost of Sales Ratio
1
2
3
4
5
Recruitment & Acquisition of Mothers
A & P Budget
21
In steady growth area where steady demand are already in place we can consider to ask our stockiest to take the product
direct to our supply point , for this we will eliminate the presence of 3
rd
party logistic, yet we need to give extra margin for
our stockiest by approx 1.5%

22. 5MdilMkti 5
.
M
e
di
ca
l
M
ar
k
e
ti
ng
2222

23. Medical Marketin
g
-
Informing HCP
g
Get endorsements from ministry of health and top pediatricians and nutritional
specialists that
• Adapta is the company that does not promote stage 1 and 2
•
Adapta
’s supporting government campaign in extending the use of breast
Adaptas

supporting

government

campaign

in

extending

the

use

of

breast

feeding
• Adapta want to work with the government to resolve energy deficiency in
nutrition for pregnant and lactating mothers nutrition

for

pregnant

and

lactating

mothers
Inform HCP formally for our product to neutralize their stance regarding our
value proposition
Recruitment starting at midwives level and downwards Recruitment

starting

at

midwives

level

and

downwards
Through PR department which is in charge of ‘external / non-commercial’ PR
and to maintain relationship with government (2 people to start with)

24. Medical Marketin
g
–
Partnershi
p
 HCP
g
p
The following are the activities that we can work together with the HCP
•Sam
p
lin
g
pg
• Incentive program
• Seminars
• Partnering HCP for making seminar as part of their social responsibilities • Together with local HCP to activate bus program “ Adapta Mobile Health Unit
(AMHU)

25. 6MdilI /S i 6
.
M
e
di
ca
l
I
nsurance
/S
erv
ices
2525

26. Fr
ee
M
ed
ica
l
Se
rvi
ces
-
Cost

e
ff
ect
iv
e

de
liv
e
r
y
wi
t
h im
pact

(
1
)
ee edca Se ces
Coste ect ede e y t pact( )
To have an immediate impact, its important to be ab le to deliver free basic services that address real
concerns of pregnant women and new moms;
Basic services for moms: Free consultation @ IDR7,500 voucher per
2 kg product purchase (3kg for GUM @ 15k

Dt th tb t fft
Basic services for infants & Gum kids Free consultation @ IDR7,500 voucher per
2kg product purchase

Mdii t t di h

D
e
t
ec
t

h
ear
t

b
ea
t
o
f

f
e
t
us
Blood pressure check
Glucose check
Vitamin
Referral for USG/add 1 RB
p
er Kabu
p
aten

M
e
di
c
ine
t
o s
t
op
di
arr
h
ea
Antibiotic to treat typhoid & respiratory
infection (check if possible)
Weight check and growth monitoring

A
ssessment of nutritional insufficienc
y
The services can be provided from the Adapta Mobile Health Unit (AMHU) which should have 1
pp
Idem for referral for Caecerian
y
health personnel (bidan/nurse) and a basic medical kit
26

27. 7Fi il 7
.
Fi
nanc
ia
ls
2727

28. 3. Financials Keyassumptions
–
Volume&sales
Key

assumptions

–
Volume

&

sales
Areas
(population)
•Year 1: West Java (46m)
•Year 2: Central Java & Jogjakarta (36m)
•Year 3: Jakarta & Banten (20m)
Y4EtJ &Bli(40)
(population)
•
Y
ear
4
:
E
as
t

J
ava
&

B
a
li

(40
m
)
•Year 5: Sumatra & South Sulawesi (58m)
Consumption
•Pregnancy: 3.1 kg per annum
•IF: 8.2 kg per annum
•
FO: 13 1 kg per annum
per capita
•
FO:

13
.
1

kg

per

annum
•GUM: 9.6 kg per annum
Market share
ti
•Pregnant mums conversion rate: 30%
•Pregnant mums retention rate (for GUM formula in next 2 years): 60%
•
Non
-
pregnant mums switching rate for IF/FO: 10%
assump
ti
ons
•
Non
-
pregnant

mums

switching

rate

for

IF/FO:

10%
•Non-pregnant mums switching rate for GUM: 10%, 15%, 20% (year 3 onwards)
Average selling
i (ASP)
•Pregnancy ASP per kg: IDR 107,667, growing at 3.0% per annum
•IF ASP per kg: IDR 72,000, growing at 3.0% per annum
•
FO ASP per kg: IDR 70 375 growing at 3 0% per annum
•More detail available in the Appendix
pr
i
ce
(ASP)

FO
ASP

per

kg:

IDR

70
,
375
,
growing

at

3
.
0%

per

annum
•GUM ASP per kg: IDR 63,639, growing at 3.0% per annum
28

29. 3. Financials Keyassumptions
–
Volume&sales(cont
’d)
Key

assumptions

–
Volume

&

sales

(contd)
Sales (IDRm)Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
West Java 35,594 111,763 170,741 213,487 227,678 238,038 241,846
Central Java & Yogya 0 34,899 79,562 116,715 135,819 142,431 149,392
Jakarta &Banten 0 0 40
,
803 84
,
440 124
,
134 142
,
698 152
,
200
,
,
,
,
,
East Java & Bali 0 0 0 49,296 112,968 166,498 194,587
Sumatra, Sulawesi 000032,43974,787111,109
Total (IDRm) 35,594 146,661 291,106 463,938 633,039 764,451 849,134
Total (US$m) 4163252 70 85 94
Volume (T)
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Volume

(T)
Year

1
Year

2
Year

3
Year

4
Year

5
Year

6
Year

7
West Java 531 1,641 2,424 2,911 2,957 3,005 3,053
Central Java & Yogya 0 496 1,112 1,579 1,768 1,773 1,779
Jakarta &Banten 0 0 553 1,117 1,582 1,740 1,768
East Java & Bali 0 0 0 636 1,427 2,029 2,272
Sumatra, Sulawesi 00003999001,290 Total (T) 531 2,137 4,089 6,243 8,133 9,447 10,161
Market share 0.5% 2.0% 3.6% 5.4% 6.8% 7.7% 8.0%
Total Market (T) 125,080 128,832 132,697 136,678 140,779 145,002 149,352
Total Market less S4 (T) 106,318 109,508 112,793 116,177 119,662 123,252 126,949
• We have assumed volume spread as follows (year 1 / year 2):
-West Java (40% / 60%)
-Central Java & Yogyakarta (60% / 40%)
-Jakarta & Banten (70% / 30%)
-
East Java & Bali (60% / 40%)
29
East

Java

&

Bali

(60%

/

40%)
-Sumatra & Sulawesi (60% / 40%)
• The market share calculation above is based on the total market size le ss Stage 4 (3-5 year old formula)
in which we do not compete in for the first 5 years

30. 3. Financials
P&L –Part 1
1 234567
In IDR billions except where stated
Dec 11e
Dec 12e
Dec 13e
Dec 14e
Dec 15e
Dec 16e
Dec 17e
In

IDR

billions
,
except

where

stated
Dec
-
11e
Dec
-
12e
Dec
-
13e
Dec
-
14e
Dec
-
15e
Dec
-
16e
Dec
-
17e
P&L
Total volume531 2,137 4,089 6,243 8,133 9,447 10,161
Avg. consumer price (IDR/kg)67,064 67,821 69,149 70,891 72,898 74,876 76,969
Consumer sales36 145 283 443 593 707 782
% growth307.2% 95.1% 56.5% 34.0% 19.3% 10.6%
R2 margin(2) (9) (17) (27) (36) (42) (47)
% consumer sales6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Stockist margin(2) (7) (14) (22) (30) (35) (39)
% consumer sales5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
3rd party distributorship margin(2) (7) (14) (22) (30) (35) (39)
% consumer sales5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Adapta Bike Costs
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
0
0
Adapta

Bike

Costs

(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
0
0
% consumer sales1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
VAT(3) (11) (22) (34) (45) (54) (60)
Net sales27 110 216 338 452 540 597
% growth311.7% 95.4% 56.5% 33.9% 19.4% 10.6%
Ingredients costs(17) (71) (139) (221) (300) (360) (398)
% net sales65.2% 64.2% 64.6% 65.5% 66.3% 66.6% 66.7%
Duty / shipping / demurage(1) (5) (10) (16) (21) (25) (28)
% net sales4.6% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
Damaged goods(0) (1) (2) (3) (5) (5) (6)
% net sales1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Trade incentive(0) (1) (2) (3) (5) (5) (6)
% net sales1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Total COGS
(19)
(78)
(153)
(244)
(330)
(396)
(438)
Total

COGS
(19)
(78)
(153)
(244)
(330)
(396)
(438)
% net sales71.8% 70.7% 71.1% 72.2% 73.0% 73.3% 73.4%
Gross margin 18 32 62 94 122 144 159
% margin28.2% 29.3% 28.9% 27.8% 27.0% 26.7% 26.6%
Depreciation(2) (2) (2) (2) (2) 0 0
% net sales7.5% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Gross mar
g
in 26 30 60 92 120 144 159
30
g
% margin20.7% 27.5% 27.9% 27.2% 26.6% 26.7% 26.6%

31. 3. Financials P&L
–
Part2
P&L

–
Part

2
1 234567
In IDR billions, except where statedDec-11e Dec-12e Dec-13e Dec-14e Dec-15e Dec-16e Dec-17e
P&L
Mapping costs(0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 0
% net sales1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Regular Media & PR (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4)
% net sales14.9% 3.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%
Media & PR launch support(8) (6) (7) (6) (6) 0 0
% net sales28.9% 5.8% 3.5% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Rental of bus / tools / professional med expenses(2) (2) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3)
% net sales
90%
22%
12%
08%
06%
05%
05%
%

net

sales
9
.
0%
2
.
2%
1
.
2%
0
.
8%
0
.
6%
0
.
5%
0
.
5%
Events costs(2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)
% net sales6.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Purchase rewards (1) (4) (8) (12) (15) (17) (18)
% net sales3.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1%
Ibu Adapta costs(0) (2) (5) (8) (10) (12) (13)
% net sales1.2% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Sli t
(0)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(3)
(4)
(4)
S
amp
li
ng cos
t
s
(0)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(3)
(4)
(4)
% net sales0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Total A&P expenses(18) (22) (31) (38) (44) (42) (45)
% net sales66.5% 20.4% 14.3% 11.1% 9.8% 7.8% 7.6%
Gross margin 3(12) 8 30 54 76 102 114
% margin(45.8%) 7.1% 13.7% 16.1% 16.8% 18.9% 19.1%
31

32. 3. Financials P&L
–
Part3
P&L

–
Part

3
1 234567
In IDR billions, except where statedDec-11e Dec-12e Dec-13e Dec-14e Dec-15e Dec-16e Dec-17e
P&L
Senior management(2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)
% of net sales7.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%
Medical personnel salary / wages(1) (4) (6) (8) (10) (10) (11)
% of net sales4.6% 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8%
Head office salary / wages(1) (2) (3) (5) (6) (6) (7)
% of net sales3.9% 2.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1%
Finance salary / wages(1) (1) (1) (2) (2) (2) (2)
% of net sales
37%
11%
06%
05%
04%
04%
04%
%

of

net

sales
3
.
7%
1
.
1%
0
.
6%
0
.
5%
0
.
4%
0
.
4%
0
.
4%
Logistic, marketing & support salary / wages(3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6)
% of net sales10.1% 2.9% 1.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9%
Research0 (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4)
% of net sales0.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%
Rental(3) (4) (4) (5) (6) (6) (6)
%f t l
11 2%
33%
20%
15%
12%
11%
10%
%
o
f
ne
t
sa
les
11
.
2%
3
.
3%
2
.
0%
1
.
5%
1
.
2%
1
.
1%
1
.
0%
Total SG&A expenses(11) (18) (23) (29) (34) (36) (37)
% net sales40.9% 16.2% 10.7% 8.5% 7.5% 6.6% 6.2%
EBIT(23)(10) 726426677
% margin(86.7%) (9.1%) 3.0% 7.6% 9.3% 12.3% 12.8%
32

33. 3. Financials CashFlow Cash

Flow
1 234567
In IDR billions, except where statedDec-11e Dec-12e Dec-13e Dec-14e Dec-15e Dec-16e Dec-17e
Cash Flow
EBITDA
(21)
(8)
9
28
44
66
77
EBITDA
(21)
(8)
9
28
44
66
77
Less: Taxes0 0 (2) (6) (11) (17) (19)
% effective rate25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Capex(10) 000000
% net sales37.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
(Increase) / decrease in NWC(2) (7) (9) (10) (10) (8) (5)
Total NWC2 9 18 29 38 46 51
Trade receivables1 6 12 19 25 30 33
Days 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Inventory4 163250688190
Days 75 75 75 75 75 75 75
Trade payables3 132540546572
Days
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
Days

60
60
60
60
60
60
60
Net cash flow(34) (15) (2) 11 24 42 53
33

34. 3. Financials Keyassumptions
–
RTM&A&P
Key

assumptions

–
RTM

&
A&P
Trade Margins &
•“R2” margin: 6.0% of consumer sales
•Stockist margin: 5.0% of consumer sales
•
3
rd
party distributor margin: 5.0% of consumer sales
V
AT
3
party

distributor

margin:

5.0%

of

consumer

sales
•VAT: 10.0% •Damaged goods: 1.0% of net sales •
Trade incentive: 1 0% of net sales
•
Trade

incentive:

1
.
0%

of

net

sales
•Ibu Adapta visits per day: 15
•Ibu Adapta working days per month: 20 days
•Ibu Adapta visits per household required: West Java (1 going up to 3), Central Java (1
going up to 2), Jakarta & Banten (1), East Java & Bali (1 going up to 2), Sulawesi &
Sumatra
(
2
g
oin
g
u
p
to 3
)
A&P
(g gp )
•Ibu Adapta monthly salary: IDR 1.5m
•Adapta bikes required for first 3 months upon entry of new region at a cost IDR 2.1m per
month
•Purchase reward: assumed that for retained customers, every purchase of 3kg of GUM
rewards them with a voucher of IDR 10,000 and for every purchase of 2kg of Pregnancy,
IF FO d th ith h f IDR 7 500 IF
,
FO
rewar
d
s
th
em w
ith
a vouc
h
er o
f

IDR

7
,
500
•Mapping costs (years 1-4): IDR400m, IDR400m, IDR100m, IDR200m, IDR400m
•Media and PR launch costs (years 1-5): IDR 8bn, IDR 6bn, IDR 7bn, IDR 6bn, IDR 6bn
•Regular media costs: IDR 4bn per annum
•Bus rental / professional medical expenditure per month: IDR 200m (growing at 3.0% per
annum)
34
annum)

•Events costs: 75% of bus rental / professional medical expenditure
•Sampling costs: 1 sachet (cost of c.IDR1,600) provided to each family Ibu Adapta visits

35. 3. Financials Keyassumptions
–
COGS SG&Aandother
Key

assumptions

–
COGS
,
SG&A

and

other

Ingredients &
Pki
•Pregnancy: IDR 26,919 per kg
•IF: IDR 24,895 per kg
•FO: IDR 26,843 per kg
GUM IDR 27 784 k
P
ac
k
ag
i
ng
COGS
•
GUM
:
IDR

27
,
784
per
k
g
•All COGS growing at 3.0% per annum
•Conversion from Euros into Rupiah at forecast IDR / EUR exchange rate from the
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
•
Assumed shipping from Europe to Indonesia in 24T containers
Other COGS
Assumed

shipping

from

Europe

to

Indonesia

in

24T

containers
•Shipping cost per container: US$1,600
•Demurage cost per container: US$175
•Import duty: 5%
•Shipping and demurage costs growth at 3.0% per annum
•Conversion from US Dollars into Rupiah at forecast IDR / USD exchan
g
e rate from the
g
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
•Senior management cost: IDR2bn per annum, growing at 3.0% per annum
•Medical personnel salary / wages (years 1-5): IDR1bn, IDR4bn, IDR6bn, IDR8bn,
IDR10bn growing at 10 0% per annum
Personnel Costs
IDR10bn
,
growing

at

10
.
0%

per

annum
•Central office salary / wages (years 1-5) : IDR1bn, IDR2bn, IDR3bn, IDR5bn, IDR6bn,
growing at 10.0% per annum
•Finance team salary / wages (years 1-5): IDR1.0bn, IDR1.2bn, IDR1.4bn, IDR1.7bn,
IDR2.0bn, growing at 10.0% per annum
35
•Logistics, marketing & support team salary / wages (years 1-5): IDR2.7bn, IDR3.2bn,
IDR3.5bn, IDR4.3bn, IDR4.7bn, growing at 10.0% per annum

36. 3. Financials Keyassumptions
–
COGS SG&Aandother(cont
’d)
Key

assumptions

–
COGS
,
SG&A

and

other

(contd)
Other SG&A
•Research costs (years 1-5): IDR0bn, IDR2.0bn, IDR2.4bn, IDR2.9bn, IDR3.5bn, then
growing at 3.0% per annum
•
Rental costs (years 1
5): IDR3bn IDR4bn IDR5bn IDR6bn IDR7bn then growing at
•
Rental

costs

(years

1
-
5):

IDR3bn
,
IDR4bn
,
IDR5bn
,
IDR6bn
,
IDR7bn
,
then

growing

at

3.0% per annum
•IT system capex: IDR5bn in year 1, depreciated over five years (straight-line)
Cash Flow
•Other launch capex: IDR5bn in year 1, depreciated over five years (straight-line)
•Tax rate of 25.0%
•Trade receivable days: 20
•Inventory days: 75
•Trade payable days: 60
36

37. 3. Financials KeySensitivities Key

Sensitivities
2015 EBIT (IDRbn)
2015 EBIT (IDRbn)
Volume Sensitivity
Trade Margin Sensitivity
42
(20.0%) (10.0%) Base +10.0% +20.0%
(20.0%) 68 87 105 124 142
(10.0%) 43 58 74 89 105
Base 18 30 42 54 67
S Sensitivity
42
(6.0%) (3.0%) Base +3.0% +6.0%
10.0% 46 34 22 10 (2)
20.0% 60 46 32 18 4
30.0% 74 58 42 26 11
onversion
ensitivity
2015 EBIT Mar
g
in
2015 EBIT Mar
g
in
+10.0% (8) 2 11 20 29
+20.0% (33) (27) (21) (15) (9)
COG
S
40.0% 88 70 52 34 17 50.0% 101 82 62 42 23
Co
Se
g
g
Volume Sensitivity
0
(20.0%) (10.0%) Base +10.0% +20.0%
(20.0%) 18.8% 21.3% 23.2% 24.9% 26.2%
vity
Trade Margin Sensitivity
0
(6.0%) (3.0%) Base +3.0% +6.0%
10.0% 12.7% 9.7% 6.6% 3.2% (0.5%)

(10.0%) 11.8% 14.3% 16.3% 17.9% 19.3%
Base 4.9% 7.4% 9.3% 10.9% 12.3%
+10.0% (2.1%) 0.4% 2.4% 4.0% 5.3%
+20.0% (9.0%) (6.6%) (4.6%) (3.0%) (1.6%)
COGS Sensiti
v
20.0% 14.1% 11.2% 8.1% 4.8% 1.2%
30.0% 15.2% 12.4% 9.3% 6.0% 2.5%
40.0% 16.1% 13.3% 10.3% 7.0% 3.5%
50.0% 16.8% 14.0% 11.0% 7.8% 4.3%
Conversion
Sensitivity
37

38. 3. Financials KeySensitivities Key

Sensitivities
2015 EBIT (IDRbn)
2015 EBIT (IDRbn)
Price Inflation Sensitivity
Retention Rate Sensitivity
42
(2.0%) (1.0%) Base +1.0% +2.0%
(2.0%) 36 51 66 82 98
(1.0%) 24 39 54 70 86
Base 12 27 42 58 74
GS Inflation
ensitivity
42
40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%
10.0% 21 22 22 23 24
20.0% 29 31 32 34 35
30.0% 38 40 42 44 47
onversion
ensitivity
2015 EBIT Mar
g
in
2015 EBIT Mar
g
in
+1.0% (0) 14 30 46 62
+2.0%(13)2 173349
CO
G
Se
40.0% 46 49 52 55 58 50.0% 54 58 62 66 69
Co
Se
g
g
Price Inflation Sensitivity
0
(2.0%) (1.0%) Base +1.0% +2.0%
(2.0%) 8.5% 11.6% 14.6% 17.4% 20.2%
on
Retention Rate Sensitivity
0
40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%
10.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.8%

(1.0%) 5.7% 8.9% 12.0% 14.9% 17.8%
Base 2.8% 6.2% 9.3% 12.4% 15.3%
+1.0% (0.1%) 3.3% 6.6% 9.7% 12.7%
+2.0% (3.1%) 0.4% 3.8% 7.0% 10.1%
COGS Inflati
o
Sensitivity
20.0% 7.8% 8.0% 8.1% 8.3% 8.5%
30.0% 8.9% 9.1% 9.3% 9.5% 9.7%
40.0% 9.9% 10.1% 10.3% 10.4% 10.6%
50.0% 10.6% 10.8% 11.0% 11.2% 11.3%
Conversion
Sensitivity
38