How to Decarbonise Cement + Increase Capacity_Reduce Costs.pdf

Decarbonise cement

1. PETER HODDINOTT
HOW TO DECARBONISE CEMENT +
REDUCE COSTS OR INCREASE OUTPUT
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output

2. SOCIAL PRESSURE FOR NET ZERO CO2:
EUROPE + N AMERICA
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement +
Reduce Costs or Increase Output

3. BACKED BY SCIENCE…
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output

4. …AND BY POLITICIANS
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output
2015Paris
Agreement =>

Aimto limit global
temperature rise to 2
oC vs 1990

5. GLOBAL ISSUE… BUT LOCAL IMPACTS
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output

6. REGULATORY PRESSURE VARIES…
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement +
Reduce Costs or Increase Output
NB: Indian companies (eg Dalmia
and Shree) lead low CO2 cements
with K/C<0.64 and SPC<70kWh/t

7. …BUT MOST CUSTOMERS NOT YET
READY TO PAY MORE…
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output
…AND IN ASIA MANY/MOST CEMENT/CONCRETE
COMPANIES WANT TO BE MORE COST COMPETITIVE
AND/OR INCREASE OUTPUT AT LOW COST…
IT WOULD BE DREAM COME TRUE, IF WE COULD
DECARBONISE AND ACHIEVE THOSE AIMS…
AN OPPORTUNITY??

8. OPPORTUNITY…REALLY?
•EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THE COST OF ABATING 1
TONNE OF CO2 BY CCS IS EYE-WATERING…
•…BUT WHAT ABOUT OTHER STRATEGIES FOR CEMENT
DECARBONISATION?
•NEXT SLIDE SHOWS ILLUSTRATIVE ADDITIONAL COSTS
IN EUROPE FOR ABATING 1 TONNE OF CO2 IN
CEMENT BY LOW CARBON ALT FUELS OR
SUBSTITUTION OF CEM I BY OTHER MATERIALS…
THE RESULTS ARE REVEALING!!
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement +
Reduce Costs or Increase Output

9. ILLUSTRATIVE MARGINAL COST PER
TONNE OF ABATED CO2 IN EUROPE
DECARBONISATION
LEVERS
COST/SAVING US$/t
CO2 ABATED
ASSUMPTIONS* + REFERENCES
(EXCLUDING CARBON COST SAVINGS)
BIOMASS AF+$20 to +$32/tCost saving $2/GJ** & Net CV = 10-16GJ/t.
(NB. 50% AF SR saves ~140kgCO2/t Clinker)
GGBFS (SLAG)-$6 to +$20/tGGBFS: Del’d cost $55-65/t + 60kgCO2/t
RECLAIMED ASH-$6 to +$23/tReclaimed ash: Del’d cost:$40-50/t + 60kgCO2/t
FRESH ASH/ POZZ-$12 to +$15/tFresh ash/pozz: Del’d cost:$45-60/t + 30kgCO2/t
LIMESTONE FILLER-$6 to +$20/tLimestone filler: Del’d cost: $25-35/t + 5kgCO2/t
CALC´D CLAY + LST-$18 to +$20/tLC2 = 60% C Clay + 40% (Limestone + Gypsum)
LC2: Del’d cost:$55-70/t + 110kgCO2/t
CCS – POST COMB’N-$70 to -$190/tVDZ: See Annex 2. Transport: €10-60/tCO2 + Storage: €5-20/t CO2
CCS - OXYFUEL-$55 to -$145/tVDZ: See Annex 2. Transport: €10-60/tCO2 + Storage: €5-20/t CO2
ALT. BUILDING MATS+$5 to -$170/t“Laying the foundation for zero-carbon cement”
McKinsey, May 2020
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output
* ASSUMPTIONS + CALCULATION METHODOLOGY: SEE ANNEX 1 OF P HODDINOTT CEMTECH EUROPE PRESENTATION
FEBRUARY 2024. ** P HODDINOTT CEMTECH ASIA PREZ JULY 2017

10. ILLUSTRATIVE MARGINAL COST PER
TONNE OF ABATED CO2IN EUROPE
DECARBONISATION
LEVERS
COST/SAVING US$/t
CO2 ABATED
ASSUMPTIONS* + REFERENCES
(EXCLUDING CARBON COST SAVINGS)
BIOMASS AF+$20 to +$32/tCost saving $2/GJ** & Net CV = 10-16GJ/t.
(NB. 50% AF SR saves ~140kgCO2/t Clinker)
GGBFS (SLAG)-$6 to +$20/tGGBFS: Del’d cost $55-65/t + 60kgCO2/t
RECLAIMED ASH-$6 to +$23/tReclaimed ash: Del’d cost:$40-50/t + 60kgCO2/t
FRESH ASH/ POZZ-$12 to +$15/tFresh ash/pozz: Del’d cost:$45-60/t + 30kgCO2/t
LIMESTONE FILLER-$6 to +$20/tLimestone filler: Del’d cost: $25-35/t + 5kgCO2/t
CALC´D CLAY + LST-$18 to +$20/tLC2 = 60% C Clay + 40% (Limestone + Gypsum)
LC2: Del’d cost:$55-70/t + 110kgCO2/t
CCS – POST COMB’N-$70 to -$190/tVDZ: See Annex 2. Transport: €10-60/tCO2 + Storage: €5-20/t CO2
CCS - OXYFUEL-$55 to -$145/tVDZ: See Annex 2. Transport: €10-60/tCO2 + Storage: €5-20/t CO2
ALT. BUILDING MATS+$5 to -$170/t“Laying the foundation for zero-carbon cement”
McKinsey, May 2020
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output
* ASSUMPTIONS + CALCULATION METHODOLOGY: SEE ANNEX 1 OF P HODDINOTT CEMTECH EUROPE PRESENTATION
FEBRUARY 2024. ** P HODDINOTT CEMTECH ASIA PREZ JULY 2017
SO EVEN WITH HIGH SCM +AF PRICES + FIXED VOLUMES IN EUROPE, IT IS
POSSIBLE TO BOOST PROFITABILITY.
IN ASIA, WITH LOWER SCM PRICES AND GROWING MARKETS, THE
ECONOMICS WILL BE EVEN BETTER

11. CRITERIA FOR A MASS MARKET LOW
CARBON BINDER IN 2030
IDEAL CRITERION
SAFE + EASY TO USE
LOW SCOPES 1+2 CARBON: <100KG CO2/M3 C25 CONCRETE
INDUSTRIALLY PROVEN (TRL = 7-9)
MEETS/SHOULD MEET MATERIALS’ PRODUCT + APPLICATION STANDARDS
CONCRETE + CONSTRUCTION PERFORMANCE: EQUIVALENT TO CEM I
BINDER COST PER M3 CONCRETE < CEM I (WITH CARBON PRICING)
GLOBALLY APPLICABLE + RAPIDLY SCALEABLE
DESIRABLE CRITERION
ZERO SCOPES 1+2 CARBON VISIBILITY (EG WITH ZERO CARBON CLINKER)
USES EXISTING LOGISTICS + CEMENT/CONCRETE NETWORK
LOW EQUIPMENT CAPEX: <$200/T/Y CAPACITY
LOW BINDER OPEX: <CEM I CASH COST/T (IE <$50-60/T)
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement +
Reduce Costs or Increase Output

12. EN197 AND ASTM 150 CEMENTS:
THE BASELINE
•RESPONSIBLE FOR ~2.85BTCO2/YEAR SCOPE 1
EMISSIONS = 7-8% GLOBAL ANTHROPOGENIC CO2
•~60% PROCESS AND ~40% KILN FUEL EMISSIONS
•PROVEN + MASS MARKET APPLICATIONS
EN 197 CEMENTTYPICAL
FORMULATION
ASSUMPTIONS
FOR SCOPE 1
EMISSIONS
ILLUSTRATIVE
SCOPE 1 CO2/T
BLENDED CEM
CEM I91% CLINKERKK: 811kg CO2/t738kg CO2/t
CEM II/A-L80% CEM I + 20%
LIMESTONE
LIMESTONE:
5kgCO2/t590kg CO2/t
CEM II/B-V or B-M70% CEM I + 30%
PFA or POZZOLAN
PFA: 30kg CO2/t
POZZ: 5kg CO2/t520 kg CO2/t
CEM III/A50% CEM I + 50%
GGBFS (SLAG)
SLAG: 60kg CO2 /t400kg CO2/t

13. EN197 AND ASTM 150 CEMENTS:
THE BASELINE
•RESPONSIBLE FOR ~2.85BTCO2/YEAR SCOPE 1
EMISSIONS = 7-8% GLOBAL ANTHROPOGENIC CO2
•~60% PROCESS AND ~40% KILN FUEL EMISSIONS
•PROVEN + MASS MARKET APPLICATIONS
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement +
Reduce Costs or Increase Output
EN 197 CEMENTTYPICAL
FORMULATION
ASSUMPTIONS
FOR SCOPE 1
EMISSIONS
ILLUSTRATIVE
SCOPE 1 CO2/T
CEMENT
CEM I91% CLINKERKK: 811kg CO2/t738kg CO2/t
CEM II/A-L80% CEM I + 20%
LIMESTONE
LIMESTONE:
5kgCO2/t590kg CO2/t
CEM II/B-V or B-M70% CEM I + 30%
PFA or POZZOLAN
PFA: 30kg CO2/t
POZZ: 5kg CO2/t520 kg CO2/t
CEM III/A50% CEM I + 50%
GGBFS (SLAG)
SLAG: 60kg CO2 /t400kg CO2/t
EVEN WITH A STANDARD BLENDED
SLAG CEMENT, EFFECTIVE CEMENT
CAPACITY CAN BE DOUBLED WHILE REDUCING THE CARBON CONTENT OF CONCRETE BY >40%

14. SLAG IS GREAT…BUT MOSTLY
ALREADY USED…
•Approx 400Mt/y BFS*. 330Mt/y used as GGBFS. Mostly available in Asia
•Pressures from EAF* technology likely to reduce BFS, but granulation to increase to ~350Mt/y. Minor overall impact
•EU blast furnaces more likely to close due to EU-ETS.
•Higher prices = greater import over distance potential.
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or
Increase Output
•BFS = Blast Furnace Slag
•EAF = Electric Arc Furnace
•Slag sources => Japan, China,
Indonesia, Brasil and Turkey
•Competitive advantage for cement
companies having access to deep
water ports + blenders.

15. SLAG IS GREAT…BUT MOSTLY
ALREADY USED…
•Approx 400Mt/y BFS*. 330Mt/y used as GGBFS. Mostly available in Asia
•Pressures from EAF* technology likely to reduce BFS, but granulation to increase to ~350Mt/y. Minor overall impact
•EU blast furnaces more likely to close due to EU-ETS.
•Higher prices = greater import over distance potential.
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or
Increase Output
•BFS = Blast Furnace Slag
•EAF = Electric Arc Furnace
•Slag sources => Japan, China,
Indonesia, Brasil and Turkey
•Competitive advantage for cement
companies having access to deep
water ports + blenders.
SOME 10
-12MT/Y GBFS STILL
AVAILABLE FROM COASTAL
CHINA, AT PRICES OF US$7
-10/T
FOB. BUT ONLY SHORT TERM CONTRACTS

16. CALCINED CLAY: LC2 + LC3-50
(CEM II/C-M)
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output
•Clay calcination = well known technology.
•Clays with >35% kaolinite generally required +
available especially in tropical latitudes
•Scope 1 CO2 emissions for calcined clay
~180kgCO2/t vs ~811kgCO2/t for clinker.
•EN 197-5 cement class Cem II/C-M allows LC2
as GGBFS alternative + LC3-50 as CEM II/C-M .
•Inclusion in EN 206 still to be achieved for RMX.
•Typically LC3-50 cement has a cash cost some
$10-20/t below that of a conventional Cem II.
High K
Clays
EN 197 CEMENTTYPICAL
FORMULATION
ASSUMPTIONS FOR
SCOPE 1
EMISSIONS
ILLUSTRATIVE
SCOPE 1 CO2/T
BLENDED CEMENT
CEM II/C-M50% CEM I + 30%
CALCINED CLAY +
20% LIMESTONE +
GYPSUM
CEM I: 738kg CO2/t
CC: 180kg CO2/t
LIMESTONE/GYPSU
M: 5kg CO2/t
424kg CO2/t
(Nearly as good
as slag blend)

17. BUT DECARBONISATION WITH
CALCINED CLAY CAN GO FURTHER
Polysius®meca-clay: Fully
electrified = 0 carbon if 100%
renewable. Able to activate clays
with kaolinite <<30%
Multi-Hearth Kiln
ECRA-VDZ: Ultra-
low carbon
calcination with
clinker kiln
waste heat

18. ACTIVATED NATURAL POZZOLAN
(CEM IV/B)
•Pozzolans decarbonised in volcanoes = low cost
SCM. Used for millennia.
•Estimated 70-80Mt/y pozzolan now used as SCM
globally
•EN 197 and EN 206/BS 8500 allow up to 55%
replacement of clinker by natural pozzolan, but
concrete performance + w/c ratio limits substitution
to <30%.
•Patented mechanical activation and chemical
technologies (EMCTM vibrating ball mills and
NeocreteTM) => boost reactivity + address water
demand issues => 55% substitution or more.
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output
EN 197 CEMENTTYPICAL
FORMULATION
ASSUMPTIONS
FOR SCOPE 1
EMISSIONS
ILLUSTRATIVE
SCOPE 1 CO2/T
BLENDED CEMENT
CEM IV/B45% CEM I + 55%
ACTIVATED
POZZOLAN (OR PFA)
CEM I: 738kg CO2/t
POZZ: 5kg CO2/t334kgCO2/t

19. ACTIVATED NATURAL POZZOLAN
(CEM IV/B)
•Pozzolans decarbonised in volcanoes = low cost
SCM. Used for millennia.
•Estimated 70-80Mt/y pozzolan now used as SCM
globally
•EN 197 and EN 206/BS 8500 allow up to 55%
replacement of clinker by natural pozzolan, but
concrete performance + w/c ratio limits substitution
to <30%.
•Patented mechanical activation and chemical
technologies (EMCTM vibrating ball mills and
NeocreteTM) => boost reactivity + address water
demand issues => 55% substitution or more.
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output
EN 197 CEMENTTYPICAL
FORMULATION
ASSUMPTIONS
FOR SCOPE 1
EMISSIONS
ILLUSTRATIVE
SCOPE 1 CO2/T
BLENDED CEMENT
CEM IV/B45% CLINKER + 55%
ACTIVATED
POZZOLAN (OR PFA)
CEM I: 734kg CO2/t
POZZ: 5kg CO2/t334kgCO2/t
FIRST EMC
TM PLANT ANNOUNCED IN
MARCH 2024 IN PORT OF
AMSTERDAM WITH 1.2MT/Y CAPACITY

20. MAKING THE MOST OF LIMESTONE I:
THE OPPORTUNITY
•Limestone (LST) already widely used:
>30% of EU Cements
•LST available worldwide + low CO2
•EN-197 limits LST to ~35% (CEM II/B-M),
but most blended cements <20%...Why?
•LST = low reactivity
•W/C ratios normally at ~0.50 to 0-55 which =>
•Lower strength
•Freeze-thaw, chloride migration + carbonation impacts
•BUT…Well known that lower W/C ratios
deal with these issues…
•What would it take to produce a low
carbon cement to:
•Maximise Limestone
•Minimise use of GGBFS/Fly Ash
•Minimise remaining clinker with decarbonized
(AF + CCS) product
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement +
Reduce Costs or Increase Output
Limestone deposits worldwide
Source: ECRA

21. MAKING THE MOST OF LIMESTONE II:
THE TECHNOLOGY
June 3, 2024
Source: ECRA
•Concrete performance with cement blend at 50% LST and W/C = 0.3 approaches
performance with pure CEM I
•Lower W/C: freeze-thaw, chloride resistance and carbonation generally improve
•Potential exposure classes => XC1, XC3, XC4, XF1… (See above) >60% concrete
•So what’s not to like? Workability! Standards!
How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output
Source: ECRA

22. MAKING THE MOST OF LIMESTONE III:
WORKABILITY + PERFORMANCE
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output
20%
30%
50%
High Limestone
Concrete
Constituents
PLUS ~2x normal
level of
admixture, super
plasticizer etc
Slump: S4 (160-210mm) + S5/S3.
Flow time: < 8 secs
C40/C50 + achievable
Excellent early strengths
Limestone
Filler
Low CO2 SCM:
GGBFS; PFA;
Pozz; Calcined
Clay
Clinker

23. MAKING THE MOST OF LIMESTONE IV
STANDARDS + CARBON IMPACT
Standards – critical step:
•Not yet in EN197 and EN206, but…
•CE Mark in place during 2024
•Using proving grounds, eg European
Technical Assessment, French ETPM…
•Lobbying for Performance Standards
esp. for low carbon concrete
Source: MPA
+
TYPICAL
FORMULATION
ASSUMPTIONS FOR
SCOPE 1 EMISSIONS
ILLUSTRATIVE
SCOPE 1 CO2/T
BLENDED CEMENT
Potential High
LST Cement. W/C
= 0.3. Testwork
completed.
TechReady
Level: 8
20% CEM I + 30% SCM
(EG GGBFS, FLY ASH) +
50% LST OR GYPSUM +
ADMIXTURES
CEM I: 738kg CO2/t
GGBFS: 60kg CO2/t
LST/GYP: 5 kg CO2/t
~168kgCO2/t
(Lowest cost
blend; highest
clinker extender +
lowest carbon!)
Source: MPA

24. SUMMARY

25. CONCLUSIONS
•Most cement mass market solutions (so far) still rely
on activation by clinker…but important options exist
to stretch clinker, increase capacity and potentially
reduce costs => Dreams can come true!!
•High limestone cements = Promising
•For a full zero CO2 solution, still need to decarbonize
fuel + remaining clinker process carbon:
•Maximise process mastery = sine qua non!
•Maximise the conventional technical levers (low carbon AF,
phase out of obsolete tech, renewable power etc)
•New clinkering technologies: H2, electrification etc
•Carbon Capture and Storage and/or utilization for the “final
mile”

26. ANNEX 1
•CCS COST EXAMPLE: BREVIK
•CCS/U COST OUTLOOK
•TECHNOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTY
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output

27. CCS/U – BREVIK EXAMPLE
•Part of Longship Project
•3 sources = 1.5MtCO2/y. Total capex budget inc. 10 years of storage ~ €2.5B
•Brevik to capture 50% of its emissions = 0.4MtCO2/y with budget capex of ~€450M
•Norwegian government provides 75-80% of capex as incentive + Heidelberg benefit from sale of saved EUAs ~€36M/y = decent return
•Quasi CfD arrangement for clawback if EUA price surges
•Amine end-of-pipe process = high energy cost
•Cement player achieves reputation premium
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output
•CO2 absorbed, desorbed, purified
to 99.8%, compressed, stored and
shipped to Northern Lights for
injection into exhausted reservoir

28. CCS/U COST OUTLOOK
CO2 Capture
Cost Estimates
Source: ECRA
Capture: €40-100/tCO2 +
Transport: €10-60/tCO2 +
Storage: €5-20/t CO2
Unit costs of some renewable-energy
tech has fallen by more than 10%/y as
output scaled up. Same for CCS/U?
Reference:
“Decarbonising Cement
and Concrete –Pathways
and Strategies of Action”
VDZ
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output

29. EXAMPLE OF CO2 COST ABATEMENT
ANALYSIS
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or Increase Output
Source: McKinsey, 2020
No scoop…SCMs =
lowest cost solution
Low carbon AFs need
capex + affect PF + RF,
but some plants
approaching
--ve KK cost inc. CO2
No surprise…
CCS =
highest cost
solution
Abatement Cost $/tCO2 -50 0 +50 +100 +150 *200

30. …PLUS NEW BINDERS AS YET
UNKNOWN…
June 3, 2024How to Decarbonise Cement + Reduce Costs or
Increase Output
?