HR Planning Models.pptx

HR Planning

1. HR Planning Models

2. 1. Markov Models- Hierarchical Model The promotion ladder (routes) are well defined in this model. Every employee upgrade himself/herself through a well defined career path. In 1961, Young and Almond formulated a hierarchical manpower system, framing sub-groups on the basis of salary grade and length of service. Assumption: Every employee in a particular grade has a fixed chance of promotion in a given year, independent of vacancy.

3. Equation of the model Cont… n (t + 1) = n (t) P + R (t + 1) r n(t) = number of employees in each group P = is mixture of transitional probabilities r = is the vector of probabilities of a recruit starting in a particular group. R(t) = number of new recruits at time t

4. Cont… Markov model considered probabilities. This model allows too much fluctuations of the size of the status group. The number of employees transitions are assumed constant.

5. 2. Renewal Model This model predict the flows in the organisation when the stock is fixed in advance. The goal of this model is to forecast the manpower flows, which are necessary to obtain given numbers of employees in all categories. The promotion flows and recruitment are determined by filling vacancies. The basic assumption of this model is that all the requirements are met by changes in promotions and recruitment rates.

6. 3. Optimization Model This model combines the forecasting of manpower availability and the matching with manpower requirement. The finite horizons are selected in this model. For instance, goal programming (fixed number of goals are established like minimum total salary cost, avoiding over employment).

7. 4. Cambridge Model This model emphasis on steady-state (stable equilibrium) age distribution (staff distribution by age). Staff distribution age remains unchanged year to year. Hence, if it goes beyond equilibrium, it will tend to return to it.

8. 5. Monte Carlo Simulation Model It is also known as “ Probabilistic simulation method ”. The chance element is used in this approach to estimate the expected demand of the staff. This approach is used when the given process has a random or chance.

9. Solution Demand (No. of staff) Probability Cumulative Prob. Random number intervals 0.01 0.01 00 10 0.20 0.21 01-20 20 0.15 0.36 21-35 30 0.50 0.86 36-85 40 0.12 0.98 86-97 50 0.02 1.00 98-99

10. Cont… Day Random Number Demand Stock 1 48 30 -- 2 78 30 -- 3 19 10 20 4 51 30 20 5 56 30 20 6 77 30 20 7 15 10 40 8 14 10 60 9 68 30 60 10 09 10 80 Total 220 Expected Demand = 220/10 = 22 cooks per day

11. 6. Staff Replacement Model The organisation has to call for replacement because staff leave the organisation for many reasons. The data regarding the staff leaving the company and staying in the company required to estimate the required recruitments

12. Solution Part (a) Year No. of People Continuing 100 1 95 2 82 3 65 4 55 5 38 6 25 7 12 8 10 9 50 10 4 11 1 12 Total 492

13. Cont… Lets Assume to maintain the strength of 80 people, we need to recruit: = 16.26 or 16 persons You can change the required strength to be maintained.  

14. Part (b) Year No. of persons 16 1 15 (95% of 16) (100% - 5%) 2 13 (82% of 16) (100% - 18%) 3 11 (65% of 16) 4 9 (55% of 16) 5 6 (38% of 16) 6 4 (25% of 16) 7 2 (12% of 16) 8 2 (10% of 16) 9 1 (5% of 16) 10 1 (4% of 16) 11 12 With 80 persons in the sales team, the distribution of the completed length of services would be: