Human_Decison_Making_PPT VREY NOVE SJCJJASKLLAS

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1. DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY Human Decision Making Model Modelling and Stimulation 2K21/IT/106 and 2K21/IT/107 Manav Mittal and Manya Garg Presented to - Mr. Abhishek Verma

2. Learning Objectives Representation of human behaviour in a computational form has proven to be a difficult task because it depends on many different and difficult elements- both on the problem statement side, and considering the personal making-decision style and experience. Modelling and Stimulation community is able to represent physical systems with high degree of accuracy and validity but this is not as advanced because of the complex nature of human system. Source: Real World Applications of Modelling and Stimulation (Book) DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

3. Why is DMP is the subject of active research from different perspectives? Psychological Perspective It is necessary to examine individual DMP in the context of a set of needs, principles and preferences they are driven by. 1 Cognitive Perspective DMP must be regarded as a continuous process integrated in the interaction with the environment. 2 Normative Perspective The analysis of individual DMP is concerned with the logic foundation of decision making. 3 DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

4. Decision Making Models Classical Decision Making Model Recognition-Primed Decision Model Naturalistic Decision Making Model DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY 1 2 3

5. Classical Decision Model Classical Decision Theory is the collection of axiom-based models of uncertainty, risk, and utility that provides a method to make an optimal decision from among an array of choices. There are four main assumptions behin d the classical model: First is a clearly defined problem. The model assumes that the decision-maker has clearly set goals and knows what is expected from him. Next is a certain environment. The model further suggests that it is in the power of the decision-maker to eliminate any uncertainty that might impact the decision. As a result, there are no risks to account for. The third assumption is full information. The decision-maker is able to identify all alternatives available to him and to evaluate and rank them objectively. The final assumption is rational decisions. The decision-maker is believed to always be acting in the best interests of the organisation. DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

6. Naturalistic Decision Making Model Naturalistic decision making (NDM) as a theory that describes the process used by experienced decision makers to arrive at satisfactory decisions. It does not account for the decision maker's past experiences or how proficient he is at analyzing situations. Evidence strongly suggests that experienced decision makers do not employ classical decision methods for the majority of their decisions A decision maker is likely to employ the naturalistic process to arrive at a decision when one or more of these factors are present. These factors are Ill-structured problems Uncertain dynamic environments Shifting, ill-defined, or competing goals Time stress High stakes Multiple players DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

7. Recognition-Primed Decision Model RPD elaborates on the naturalistic decision cycle to describe the cognitive process decision makers go through to arrive at a COA. There are seven features that set the RPD model apart from classical decision models (10). They are RPD focuses on situational assessment rather than comparing several decision options. RPD describes how people use their experience to arrive at a decision. RPD asserts that an experienced decision maker can identify a satisfactory COA as the first one he considers rather than treating option generation as a random process. RPD relies on satisfying rather than optimizing—finding the first COA that works rather than the optimal one. RPD focuses on sequential evaluation of COAs rather than on the simultaneous comparison of several options. DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

8. Recognition-Primed Decision Model FlowChart DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY Decision makers tend to employ RPD in the following situations: When time pressure for a decision is great, because only one CO A is analysed at a time and an optimal solution is not necessarily sought. When the decision maker is experienced in the decision domain. He has more life experiences to match against to recognize with situation and to choose a satisfactory COA. When the decision situation is more dynamic and changes before decision analysis can be performed. When goals are ill-defined, which make it difficult for the decision maker to determine solution evaluation criteria. These four situations have a direct relationship to the eight factors that characterise NDM, indicating that the RPD process is a valid example of NDM. This figure depicts Klein's model of the RPD process.

9. Identify all relevant courses of action among which the decision maker may choose Identify the consequences (advantages) that may arise as a result of choosing each option These probabilities may be elicited by straightforward judgmental methods or with the aid of more sophisticated techniques. The decision maker is not to be held responsible if this action meets with misfortune and an undesired option is obtained. Decision Making Steps DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

10. Decision Structuring Allows iterations in the decision-making process, with each round responding to the insights gained from its predecessors. Reducing the transaction costs from the act of making a decision. Improving trust between the individuals involved in a decision. Making do with limited decision-making expertises. Decision makers research can suggest better formulation procedures and generic options that can be built into decision analysis schemes. The validity of decision analysis schemes should be tested, particularly with regard to decision structuring DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

11. Military Decision Making The Department of Defence (DoD) has adopted a set of steps known as the estimate process to help guide military commanders in COA analysis and selection: Determination of the mission Situational assessment and COA generation Analysis of opposing COAs Comparison of friendly COAs The CJTF chooses the best COA and implements it. DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

12. Measuring Preferences No opinion: how to discover and how to cope with that situation when decision makers have no opinions. Interactive value measurement: suggesting alternative ways of thinking about the problem and the implications of various possible resolutions. Specific Topics: a combination of theoretical and empirical work on how people could and do think about particular issues. Simulating Values: A possible didactic use would be to help people clarify what they want. DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

13. Hot and cold cognition The use of decision aids for medical patients pondering possible treatments 1 Contigency planning A nticipating future situations and prescribing the actions needed 2 Overriding recommendations Analogous moments face the users of most other human-machine systems. 3 Improving Realism DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

14. Variety of software packages and firms can now bring the fruits of these theoretical advances to practicing decision makers. Decision analysis is part of the curriculum of most business schools. The reasons decision making seems so difficult are quite varied, as are the opportunities for interventions and the needs for human factors research to buttress those interventions. Decision-making is the process of choosing among two or more alternative courses of action for the purpose of attaining one or more goals. Result and Inferences DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

15. https://learning.oreilly.com/library/view/handbook-of-real-world/9781118117774/9781118241264c02.xhtml#c02_level1_2 https://www.nap.edu/read/759/chapter/3#:~:text=Decisions%20are%20made%20explicitly%20whenever,with%20a%20choice%20between%20options. https://www.informit.com/articles/article.aspx?p=2992600&seqNum=2 References https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0267907 DELHI TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY