ICCT Global Transportation Overview

Overview, scope of work, and preliminary conclusions of ICCT's Global Transportation Roadmap.

1. ICCT Global Transportation Roadmap Overview March/2012

2. Overview and Scope of Work Slide 2 Pollutants Local air pollutants (NO x , SO x , CO, PM) GHGs (CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O) Modes On-road (LDVs, buses, 2 and 3 wheelers, HDTs) Rail Marine (domestic/international) Aviation (domestic/international) Regions United States, EU-27, China, India, Japan, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Russia, Rest of Latin America, Rest of Europe, Rest of Asia-Pacific, Middle-East, and Africa. Years 2000 to 2050 in 5-year increments Outputs WTW/WTT/TTW emissions Energy consumption Vehicle stock and sales The Roadmap is a tool to help policymakers worldwide identify and understand trends in the transportation sector, assess emission impacts of different policy options, and frame plans to effectively reduce emissions of both greenhouse gases (GHGs ) and local air pollutants. The core of the Roadmap is a spreadsheet-based model developed in Microsoft Excel that calculates historical and future well-to-wheel (WTW) emissions from the transportation sector for different policy scenarios. The Roadmap compares the effects of policies that have been adopted and those that are under active discussion with the policy potential for the largest vehicle markets.

3. Roadmap Model Spreadsheet Structure 3 POLICY LEVERS LDV CALCULATIONS LDV INPUTS BUS CALCULATIONS BUS INPUTS 2-WHEELERS CALCULATIONS 2-WHEELERS INPUTS 3-WHEELERS CALCULATIONS 3-WHEELERS INPUTS LHDT CALCULATIONS LHDT INPUTS MHDT CALCULATIONS MHDT INPUTS HHDT CALCULATIONS HHDT INPUTS PASSENGER RAIL INPUTS / CALCULATIONS FREIGHT RAIL INPUTS / CALCULATIONS AVIATION INPUTS / CALCULATIONS WATERBORNE INPUTS / CALCULATIONS MODEL OUTPUTS FUEL INPUTS TURNOVER MODULE SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODULE COUNTRY DASHBOARD SYSTEM CONFIGURATION SUMMARY OF OUTPUTS MODE-SPECIFIC INPUT PARAMETERS AND CALCULATIONS NON MODE-SPECIFIC INPUT PARAMETERS OUTPUTS

4. Roadmap Model Simplified Emission Calculation Methodology 4 SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS TRANSPORTATION ACTIVITY VEHICLE ACTIVITY FUEL CONSUMPTION WTT EMISSIONS WTW EMISSIONS VEHICLE POPULATION TTW EMISSIONS VEHICLE SALES VEHICLE SALES BY TECHNOLOGY NEW FLEET ENERGY EFFICIENCY TTW EMISSION FACTORS WTT EMISSION FACTORS INPUTS OUTPUTS CALCULATIONS ∞ TURNOVER ALGORITHM LEGEND ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ EMISSION STANDARDS FUEL BLENDS

5. Emission Reduction Strategies 5 IMPROVE Vehicle efficiency improvements Faster introduction of emission standards “ Decarbonization ” of fuels and electricity Low sulfur fuels AVOID Transportation activity reduction through travel demand management, land-use policies, and improvements in efficiency of passenger and freight transportation systems. SHIFT Mode shift to less energy -intensive modes (passenger and freight).

6. Policy Trajectories 6 1.7 1.3 2.5 85% REDUCTION FROM 2000 LEVELS 50% REDUCTION FROM 2000 LEVELS 2030 GHG SAVINGS (GtCO 2 e) ADOPTED POLICIES Includes existing, enforceable and finalized regulations but assumes no further changes. POLICY PIPELINE Considers all policies under active regulatory development or that exist as formal, stated policy goals. POLICY POTENTIAL Includes technically feasible policies and plausible regulatory timelines, without any consideration of political will. NO POLICIES CASE Assumes no policies adopted post 2000. Intended only to be used for quantification of Adopted Policies. Adopted policies and those in the pipeline are not sufficient to revert the trend in increasing transportation emissions. The Policy Potential more than doubles the possible GHG savings and results in relatively stable emissions out to 2030.

7. Global GHG Savings from Transportation Policies 7 Transportation policies have the potential to reduce GHG emissions by 35% in 2030 (from a 2030 baseline assuming no transportation policies), equivalent to a total reduction of 5.5 GtCO 2 e.

8. Global GHG Savings from Transportation Policies 8 Breakdown of GHG Savings from Adopted Policies in 2030 ADOPTED POLICIES The majority of adopted policies in the transportation sector have targeted efficiency standards for light and heavy-duty vehicles, and waterborne vessels. These are expected to result in substantial emission savings –1.7 GtCO 2 e in 2030. POLICY PIPELINE Policies in the pipeline continue the successful approach of vehicle efficiency standards expanding light and heavy-duty standards into additional regions and adding aircraft standards. The pipeline also includes investments in public transit and freight rail . Combined, these policies are expected to result in savings of 1.3 GtCO 2 e in 2030. Breakdown of GHG Savings from Policy Pipeline in 2030

9. Policy Progress 9 Economic and demographic trends have some effect – either positive or negative depending on the region – on the efficiency of the transportation system. However, most of the impact on transportation efficiency improvement is expected from policies. An example below is provided for the U.S., showing how transportation policies have the potential to substantially improve how regions move people and freight. BUBBLE SIZE: CO2e Emissions

10. Planned Deliverables Roadmap Model Excel spreadsheet that calculates historical and future transportation emissions by mode and region based on different policy scenarios. Global Climate Report Evaluation of impact from adopted, prospective, and potential policies on GHG emissions from transportation in key regions. Global Health Report Evaluation of health impacts from adopted , prospective, and potential transportation policies in key regions. 10