impact-based-multi-hazard-forecasting-in-africa.pdf

impact-based-multi-hazard-forecasting-in-africa.pdf
impact-based-multi-hazard-forecasting-in-africa.pdf
impact-based-multi-hazard-forecasting-in-africa.pdf
impact-based-multi-hazard-forecasting-in-africa.pdf
impact-based-multi-hazard-forecasting-in-africa.pdfimpact-based-multi-hazard-forecasting-in-africa.pdf
impact-based-multi-hazard-forecasting-in-africa.pdf
impact-based-multi-hazard-forecasting-in-africa.pdf
impact-based-multi-hazard-forecasting-in-africa.pdf
impact-based-multi-hazard-forecasting-in-africa.pdf

1. Impact-based multi-hazard
forecasting in Africa
Lorenzo Alfieri
CIMA Foundation

2. Introduction
Goal
An African Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Action
System (AMHEWAS) for Disaster Risk Reduction
Key activities
•Design of legal and institutional framework
•Set up of situation rooms with 24/7 operation
and Standard Operating Procedures
•Operational tools for monitoring and forecasting
extreme hydro-meteorological events
•Issuing of regular bulletins for hazard monitoring
and forecasting 
•Capacity building for staff and experts from
Member States and RECs
MHEWS Situation Room at AUC
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
AMHEWAS Conference
Nairobi, October 2021 

3. •11 countries
•17 domains 
•6.8 million km
2
•250m to 3km 
grid resolution
•5-day forecasts
Flood-PROOFS East
Africa
Model calibration

4. Bulletins
Situation Report
•Reporting on ongoing / recent events and impacts
•Variable frequency (event based)
•Includes an outlook for
the next days
•Contributed by
RECs and MS
•Together with the
CW it informs
Anticipatory Action
meetings between
AUC and MS affected
Continental Watch 
•Multi-hazard forecasting and Early warning
•Issued twice per week (Tue and Fri)
•Impact-based
•Hazards covered:
✔
Wind storms
✔
Extreme
precipitation
✔
River flooding
•Timeliness→
heavily automated
•Multi-language
•Includes a summary
of recent disasters

5. Precipitation and Wind hazard
Precipitation: Maximum 24h
cumulations in a sliding window over the
subsequent 5 days. Thresholds derived
from a long term satellite dataset
(CHIRPS). Linked to annual probability
of exceedance (2, 5, 20 years)
Wind: Maximum speed. Thresholds are
taken from published research and
operational centers. Linked to impact-
related features (e.g., breaking or
uprooting of trees, peak of the
distribution of fatal and injury-causing
accidents)
CAF, 27 June 2022

6. River floods
GloFAS forecasts 2022-05-04
5-day forecast

Forced by ECMWF weather forecasts

GloFAS discharge threshold exceedance
for return periods between 2 and 500
years (0.1° ~11 km grid)

5-day forecast horizon, mean of 51
ensemble members

7. Exposure and Coping capacity
Lack of Coping Capacity 
INFORM Risk Index
drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index/INFORM-Risk
1 (low)
10 (high)
Exposure
GHS-POP
ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Population density grids at 100m
resolution for the year 2020
Country-wide values

8. From hazard to impacts
Inundated areas
(Hazard)
Population density
Lack of coping capacity
ExpTotADMIN1
Index thresholdTierCW
Impact forecast
<10 people 0 No event
<500 people 1 Local / Sub-National
<0.5% of Admin1
pop
2 National
<5% of Admin1 pop
>10k people
3 Regional 
>5% of Admin1 pop
>50k people
4 Continental
Relative riskADMIN1 = Σ(H x Exp
Hc
x V) x Lcc
Based on 5062 disasters occurred in 1990-2021 (EM-DAT)
Hazard
Lack of coping
capacity
VulnerabilityExposure
Absolute
risk
AUC warning
levels

9. Flood-impact forecasts in the IGAD region
Absolute Relative
Categories

Population affected

Population displaced

Loss of GDP

Crop affected [ha]

Grazing land affected [ha]

Livestock affected

Roads affected [km]
Visualization mode

Absolute

Relative [%]
Based on Flood-PROOFS
forecasts linked to the
JRC inundation maps

11. Impact-based warnings in the Continental Watch
●CW with 5-day multi-
hazard outlook issued
every Tuesday and
Wednesday
●Produced in 4 languages
(EN, FR, PT, AR) through
automated translation and
manual check (+ editing
option)

12. Ongoing and future work

Inclusion of additional hazards (drought, …)

Model and forecast evaluation

Multi-model and ensemble forecasts

Training of trainers and of Member
states/RECs

Set-up of situation rooms in other RECs

Transfer system operation to African partners

13. Contacts:
[email protected]
3 February 2022 - Tropical Storm
Batsirai approaching Madagascar

14. Operational EWS for floods
In the IGAD region,
duty officers evaluate
model agreement
between GloFAS and
Flood-PROOFS and
proposes changes to
the warning level in the
CW