Indonesia Coal Presentation Update 2024.pptx

Indonesia Coal Mining Brief Outlook 2024

1. Coal Mining (Indonesia) Prepared by: Timothy D. Gracianov

2. 2023’s target was 695M tons, the realization achieves 111.5%. DMO of 213M tons (+31.6% yoy ) was at 27.5% of total production, requirement 25%. CFPP Program 35GW, renewables supply disrupted. The government set conservative target at 710M tons for 2024, yet the possibility for similar pattern of higher production is there. 2M24 Indonesia’s overseas coal shipment schedule jumped 24% yoy , trend continued. China (33%), India (15%), South Korea (5.8%), and Philippines (5.1%) were the top export destination, respectively. Indonesia coal export grew 13.8% yoy to 562M tons in 2023, consistent with 2022’s 13.6% yoy . 505.4M tons (+12% yoy ) was thermal coal. World’s thermal coal export grew 6.6% yoy to 1B tons, Indonesia contributed 50% of it and outperformed.

3. China and India were the largest thermal coal exporters in the world. Both China total coal imports and production hit records at 474M tons (+61.6% yoy ) and 4.66B tons (+2.9% yoy ), respectively. Expecting hit a brake at 2025. India also pumped up production by 12.1% yoy to 803.8M tons. But, India’s Apr – Sep Import declined by 5% yoy to 125.2M tons. Coal-fired electricity generated up 1% yoy on 10M23 to 8,295 TWh . Renewables at low double digit growth. Forward looking: Thermal coal import levies mostly targeted to Mongolia and Russian reinstated at 6%, thus might pressure the country’s import in 2024. S&P Global predicted China thermal coal import to decline to 221M tons in 2024 and 231M tons in 2025. We adjust higher at 290M tons and 300M tons, respectively due to above expected 2023’s thermal coal import at 350M tons. India targets a coal production of 1.4B tons in 2027, which will imply a strong CAGR of 8.8% from current production level . Thus, less reliable on coal imports outlook from India and China as the current largest coal importers might pressure the global coal price.

4. PP No. 26/2022 Regarding Coal Royalty Tariff in Indonesia