Information Technologinfo technology geopolitics

info technology

1. Day 17 Information Technology 1 Makito Takei Geopolitics and Technological Changes 04/22/2024

2. Questions from Students (Day 15) How can a non-sovereign country be a sovereign one? (Arely Garza)

3. Questions from Students (Day 15) How can a non-sovereign country be a sovereign one? (Arely Garza) In the case of failed states (i.e., a lack of internal sovereignty) State-building In the case of unrecognized states Get recognition by other countries Become a member of the United Nations (Do you know what happened to Palestine?)

4. Questions from Students (Day 15) Is it possible that a nation has too much territory that becomes a problem? How about Mexico? (José Eduardo Zapata Hernández)

5. Questions from Students (Day 15) Is it possible that a nation has too much territory that becomes a problem? How about Mexico? (José Eduardo Zapata Hernández) Difficulty in achieving internal security Secessionist movements

6. The Influence of Technologies on International Relations Course Title : Geopolitics and Technological Changes Learned a lot about geopolitics and the effect of geography ( e.g ., Distance , power , location , force structure , issue types such as territory ) How about technologies ?

7. Information Technology Traditional media Print media ( e.g ., newspaper ) Radio Television New Media Internet Social media

8. Questions Are traditional media obsolete? How do traditional media affect international relations and conflicts ?

9. Rationalist Explanations for War (Fearon 1995) So - called “bargaining model” Three explanations by Fearon - Information problems - Commitment problems - Issue indivisibility Connection between information problems and technologies (e.g., the media)

10. Information Problems Information about material capability, interests, positions, intentions/resolve, etc. Information is crucial not only in IR but also daily lives, economic activity, or elsewhere If a lack of information, inefficient, undesirable consequences are more likely to occur (e.g., conflict)

11. Fearon’s (1995: 387) Bargaining Model Actors: State A and B Value of a good (e.g. territory) is 1 P: probability of winning a war; cA : cost of war for State A; B: costs of war for State B. cA > 0, cB > 0

12. When Complete Information Both State A and B know the value of p, cA , and cb Expected Utility of War for State A: p - cA Expected Utility of War for State B: 1 - p – cB

13. When Complete Information Suppose that State A offers x. State B gets 1 – x if accept For State A: x > p – cA For State B: 1 – x > 1 – p- cB State B should accept the offer, a dispute is settled peacefully, war does not occur

14. Implications of Complete Information When information is complete, there is always a bargaining range where a negotiated settlement is better than war for both states War does not occur under complete information

15. Implications of Incomplete Information What if the information is incomplete? State A may not have sufficient information on State B - How strong State B is? - How valuable the good (e.g., territory) is for State B ? - How willing is State B to use force for the good? State A does not know where the bargaining range is ⇒ State A has the incentive to bluff, and makes an offer that is outside of the bargaining range ⇒ State B cannot accept the offer ⇒ War could occur

16. Summary (Information Problem) When information is complete, war does not occur When information is incomplete, war could occur For a n egotiated settlement, it is important to reduce information asymmetry and uncertainty

17. Example: Senkaku/Diaoyu Island Dispute Territorial dispute between Japan and China Effectively controlled by Japan China’s recent pro vocation - Sending Chinese vessels U.S.- Japan military alliance Biden’s statement: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3E6IhRqVZQs

18. Example: Senkaku/Diaoyu Island Dispute I ncomplete information/Information asymmetry - Japan and US: Do not know how willing China is to get the island - China (and Japan) : Do not know whether U.S. will fight for Japan If miscalculation happens, China may start to invade the island Will U.S. militarily intervene on behalf of Japan if Ch ina invades the islands?

19. Information Problems and War Uncertainty / Asymmetric information is a cause of war Both international and civil war Civil War : A war between organized groups within the same state Usually, a conflict between the government and rebel group(s) Reducing information problems → Fewer conflicts / wars Then , how ?

20. United Nations Radio Broadcasts United Nations (UN): An international organization founded in 1945 Made up of 193 Member States Main goal: Keep peace, conduct a lot of peacekeeping missions Sometimes build UN radio broadcasts in conflict zones (e.g., Cambodia, Rwanda, Sudan)

21. Shafiei and Overton (2023) Information Problems in Civil War : The government does not have adequate information on rebel groups ( e.g ., capability , resolve , purposes ) and vice versa In countries experiencing conflicts , radio is still an important information source UN Radio Station Broadcasts → Reduce information problems → Peace ( e.g ., fewer battle deaths )

22. UN Missions and Cellphone Users

23. UN Missions and Internet Use

24. UN Missions and Literacy

25. Coefficients : Negative and statistically significant → UN radio station broadcasts decrease battle deaths in conflicts

26. Questions How are the effects of information technologies similar and/ or different between traditional and new media? Is there any other way where media affect international relations ?

27. References Fearon, J. D. (1995). Rationalist explanations for war. International Organization , 49(3), 379-414. Shafiei , Mahtab , and Kathryn Lauren Overton. "Peace is in the air: Reducing conflict intensity with United Nations peacekeeping radio broadcasts." Conflict Management and Peace Science (2023).