Intoduction to Demography.pptxxxxxxxxxxx

Demography

1. Introduction To Demography Dr. Abdul Arham Khatri Lecturer & Research Assistant MBBS, PLAB-1

2. رَبِّ ٱشْرَحْ لِى صَدْرِى وَيَسِّرْ لِىٓ أَمْرِى وَٱحْلُلْ عُقْدَةًۭ مِّن لِّسَانِى يَفْقَهُوا۟ قَوْلِى My Lord! Uplift my heart for me, and make my task easy, and remove the impediment from my tongue so people may understand my speech, بِسْمِ اللهِ الرَّحْمٰنِ الرَّحِيْمِ

3. Objectives: Describe demography Explain sources of demographic data Explain the importance of demographic data Discuss the stages of demographic transition

4. Introduction to Demography Definition: "Demography is the statistical study of human populations, especially with reference to size, density, distribution, and vital statistics" (Hauser & Duncan, 1959). Size: It is the number of people in the population a given time. Density: It is a measure of how many people live in a given area. (Population/Area) Distribution: It is a measure of how spread out a population is in any given area. Vital statistics: These terms used to understand population dynamics as as b irths, deaths, marriages, and sometimes even migration.

5. Population studies Effects of Social, Economical and Health factors on Population dynamics These factors include: B irth, death and  migration Marriages and  divorces Diseases or Medical c onditions Employment Social characteristics (Literacy level, hospitality, general behavior)

6. Demographic Data Census: Comprehensive national data collected every 10 years. Vital Statistics: Birth and death records, marriage and divorce registrations. Surveys: Household surveys like the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Administrative Data: Hospital records, school enrollments, and migration reports.

7. Terms you should know Age structure:  The distribution of people by age Sex ratio: The ratio of males to females in a population Age-Sex Composition: Proportion of genders in different age groups. population pyramid:

8. Terms you should know Fecundity: This is the physiological capability for a female to reproduce. Reproductive age as a whole This can also vary in climate: Places with colder temperature experience delay in puberty Fertility: This is the actual reproductive activity (no of conceptions) of a female. This varies across cultures and races.

9. Terms you should know Net migration: The difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants in a given area over a period of time . Urbanization: The process of people moving from rural areas to cities, and the growth of cities as a result . Mortality: The number of deaths that occur in a specific area over a given period of time .

10. Population statics: Population Growth Rate (r): The change in the number of individuals over a specific period of time. Population Doubling time: The number of years required for a specified population to double in size at the current rate of population growth . calculation: The Rule of 70 (since at r=1 it take 70 years to double population) doubling time = 70/r ( where “r” Growth rate)

11. Other terms: Replacement level fertility (zero population growth): Achieved when a couple has 2 children in their marriage, to replace themselves. True value is 2.1 children per female to compensate for expected deaths Momentum of population growth The tendency of a population to continue growing even when fertility rates are constant or declining. (A population with a large number of women of reproductive age will have more births than deaths, even if fertility rates are constant.) 

12. Important calculations: Dependency Ratio: Children under the age of 15 and elders above age 65 are considered to be the dependent population. So, this is the ration of economically active population to those who are not. children<15 years + Elders>65 total population of ages 15-65 X 100 = Dependency Ratio

13. Important calculations: Sex Ratio: Ratio of the total number of Males to Females in the population. Total number of Males Total number of Females X 100 = Sex Ratio

14. Important calculations: Crude Birth Rate: CBR = General Fertility Rate: GFR = Age-specific Fertility Rate: ASFR = Total Fertility Rate: TFR = No. of live birth a year Mid year population No. of live birth in a year No. of women aged 15-49 No. of live births for a specific age for women Total no. women for that age group Sum of (all ASFR X 5) 1000 X 1000 X 1000 X 1000 X 1000

15. Important Rates: Birth rate: Number of live births, per 1000 people. Fertility Rate: Average number of children, that a women will have in her life time. Death Rate: Number of deaths, per 1000 people. Infant mortality Rate: Number of infants deaths (<1year age), per 1000 live births.

16. Population Dynamics: What causes change in population? Natural change: The difference in number of births from number of deaths in a year. Net Migration: The difference in number of people moving to and from a place. Population Growth is = Natural change + Net migration

17. Population Dynamic formula: Population Change = ( Births – Deaths) +/- ((In- Migration ) – (Out  Migration )). OR Pt = Pt + ((B-D)+(IM-OM) Where: Pt = total population Pt = Starting population B = Births D = Deaths IM = In-migration OM = Out-migration

18. Importance of Demographic Data Healthcare: Identifying high-risk groups (e.g., elderly, infants). Education: Planning for school enrollments based on population trends. Disaster Management Preparing for pandemics, natural disasters, and refugee crises. Example: How COVID-19 demographic data helped in vaccination strategies.

19. Population Pyramid A graph that shows how people in a population are distributed by age and sex. How it works? The oldest age group is at the top, and the youngest is at the bottom.  Men are usually on the left side, and women are on the right.  The graph is typically shaped like a pyramid when the population is growing.

20. Stages of Demographic Transitions Divided into four stages based on birth and death rates. High Stationary: High birth and death rates, population remains stable Early Expanding: High birth rate, declining death rate, rapid population growth. Late Expanding: Declining birth rate, stable death rate, slower population growth. Low Stationary: Low birth and death rates, population stabilizes.

21. جَزَاكَ ٱللَّٰهُ خَيْرًا The end