James Weinberg, University of Sheffield

Elite Polarisation: where next?

1. Elite Polarisation:
where next?
Dr James Weinberg
University of Sheffield

2. 2Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Key Questions for the next 15 minutes
➢What does elite polarisation look like and when does it
warrant concern?
➢What are the causes and consequences of elite
polarisation?
➢How might we depolarise our elites in conditions
where that is necessary and/or desirable?

3. Qu 1. What does elite
polarisation look like and
when does it warrant
concern?

4. 4Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu 1. What does elite polarisation look like and when does it
warrant concern?

5. 5Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu 1. What does elite polarisation look like and when does it
warrant concern?

6. 6Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu 1. What does elite polarisation look like and when does it
warrant concern?
•‘Shallow’conflict:Democraticcompetitionwithoutmeaningful
programmaticdistinctionsamongcontendingparties(electionswithout
choice).
•‘Ordinary’conflict:Thenormalclashofideasandinterestsbetweenpolitical
adversaries(genuinedemocraticcompetition).
•‘Excessive’or‘extraordinary’conflict:Anextraordinaryescalationof
politicalconfrontationthatthreatenstooverwhelmdemocraticprocedures
andinstitutions(polarisation).

7. 7Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu 1. What does elite polarisation look like and when does it
warrant concern?
Elitepolarisation,understoodthroughthelensof‘excessiveconflict’,entails:
-Non-boundedconflicts(e.g.bypolicy,institution,orgeography);
-Bipolarconflicts(e.g.dominantpoliticalparties,left/rightpartisans,or
‘imaginedpoliticalcommunities’);
-Basicdistrustandemotionalanimosityregardlessofideologicaldifferences;
and
-Manicheandivisionsbetweenthe‘protectorsofdemocracy’andthe‘enemies
ofdemocracy’.

8. 8Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu 1. What does elite polarisation look like and when does it warrant
concern?
Members of
Parliament
(N = 62)
Councillors
(N = 415)
Unsuccessful
Parliamentary
Candidates
(N = 134)
Unsuccessful
Council Candidates
(N = 331)
British Public –
ESS 9
(N = 2204)
Mean
(SD)
Con-Lab
distance
Mean
(SD)
Con-Lab
distance
Mean
(SD)
Con-Lab
distance
Mean
(SD)
Con-Lab
distance
Mean
(SD)
Con-Lab
distance
Would you say the UK's cultural life is generally
undermined or enriched by people who come to live here
from other countries? (0-10, where 10 = enriched)
8.15
(1.87)
-2.287.84
(2.19)
-2.887.66
(2.72)
-3.67 7.78
(2.34)
-2.08 5.88
(2.64)
-1.21
To what extent are you in favour of using public money to
subsidise renewable energy such as wind and solar power.
(5-point Likert scale, where 5 = Strongly in Favour)
4.44
(0.84)
-1.084.35
(1.02)
-1.344.18
(1.32)
-1.53 4.34
(1.08)
-1.163.73
(1.05)
-.17
Society is fair when income and wealth are equally
distributed. (0-5, where 5 = Strongly Agree)
3.44
(1.24)
-1.193.74
(1.21)
-1.593.69
(1.29)
-1.97 3.75
(1.24)
-1.85 3.17
(1.13)
-.62

9. 9Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu 1. What does elite polarisation look like and when does it warrant
concern?
Politicians in ‘their party’
Mean score (/100)
Politicians in ‘other
parties’
Mean score (/100)
Trust gap (rounded to the
nearest whole number)
You trust your colleagues 69.45 38.89 31
Your colleagues follow through on their commitments 77.97 48.10 30
Your colleagues have the skills necessary to handle
their responsibilities
72.03 51.80
21
Your colleagues act ethically in their professional
conduct
86.55 56.76
30
Your colleagues are open and transparent in their
communication
70.48 39.96
31
Your colleagues listen to your opinion and take it
seriously
67.77 42.57
25
Your colleagues treat you fairly 78.03 53.79 25
You feel comfortable sharing personal information
with your colleagues
61.42 33.14
28
You collaborate effectively with your colleagues 74.39 50.86 24
You can depend on your colleagues to work together
towards common goals for the country
79.58 48.79
31

10. Qu. 2: What are the causes
and consequences of elite
polarisation?

11. 11Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu. 2: What are the causes of elite polarisation?
Focus1:the
psychologyofthe
peopleinvolved
→Personality
Focus 2: the
psychologicalimpactof
governingindistrust
→Mentalhealth
Elitepolarisationthroughthelens
ofpoliticalpsychology

12. Cause: The
personalities of
politicians

13. 13Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu. 2: What are the causes of elite polarisation?
The personality of politicians…Comparison of lower order basic values for Labour MPs (n = 50) and Conservative MPs (n = 33).
Asterisks indicate statistically significant differences in this sample.

Finding1:
UKpoliticiansontheLeft
andRightarenotonly
ideologicallypolarised,but
psychologicallydifferentto
oneanother.

14. 14Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu. 2: What are the causes of elite polarisation?
The personality of politicians…
Finding2:
The personalityof
politicianscorrelates
stronglywith their
ideologicalself-placement
andpolicyattitudes.

15. 15Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu. 2: What are the causes of elite polarisation?
The personality of politicians…
Finding3:
Thereisapersonalitygap
betweenpoliticiansand
betweenpoliticiansand
theirvoters(biggeronthe
LeftofUKpolitics)

16. 16Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu. 2: What are the causes of elite polarisation?
The personality of politicians…
Finding4:
Politiciansaremore
innatelycombative,ego-
defensiveandleadership-
driventhanvoters.
Members of Parliament
(N = 168)
Councillors
(N = 415)
General Population
(N = 1557)
BENEVOLENCE UNIVERSALISM BENEVOLENCE
UNIVERSALISM SELF-DIRECTION UNIVERSALISM
SELF-DIRECTION BENEVOLENCE SELF-DIRECTION
STIMULATION STIMULATION SECURITY
CONFORMITY HEDONISM TRADITION
POWER CONFORMITY CONFORMITY
SECURITY POWER HEDONISM
HEDONISM SECURITY ACHIEVEMENT
ACHIEVEMENT ACHIEVEMENT STIMULATION
TRADITION TRADITION POWER
Table. Value hierarchies based on sample means (most important to
least important).

17. Consequence: the
mental health of
politicians

18. What do these
individuals have in
common ?
Which one is the odd
one out?

19. 19Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu. 2: What are the consequences of polarisation?
Stressor Summary Research to date
Expectations Mismatch in personal performance, policy output and
public expectations
None
Distrust Generalised cynicism/abuse/hostility in spite of effortWeinberg, 2023
Political labourDemands of emotion work and false-face acting Weinberg, 2020
Organisational
culture
Toxicity, lack of support, partisan competition Kwiatkowski, 2012; Cooper-
Thomas and Silvester, 2014
Leadership Pressure to make the ‘right’ decision; managing an
office
Owen and Davidson, 2009;
Capraraet al., 2010; Dietrich et
al, 2012; Lilienfeld et al., 2012
Temporal Election cycle and ministerial longevity, e.g. job loss in
full view of public and media; career stage
Theakston et al., 2007;
Theakston, 2012; Roberts, 2017.
Lifestyle Long working hours, qualitative demands, impact on
family
Weinberg, 2015
Control Witnessing suffering, inability to effect changeWeinberg, 2015
Skills Lack of, and barriers to obtaining resources –physical
and psychological
Silvester and Dykes, 2007;
Hartley, 2012; Silvester et al.,
2014
Framework of
political
stressors
(Flinders,
Weinberg,
Weinberg,
Geddes &
Kwiatkowski,
2018)

20. Qualitative evidence…
Interviews with politicians were
used to assess their
understanding of the
relationships between work and
well-being (conducted December
2020 –February 2021).
International context –51
parliamentarians serving across
eight parliaments over four
continents.
Canadian Parliament (16), UK
Parliament (13), Australia (6),
South Africa (6), Scotland (3),
New Zealand (3), Wales (2) and
Northern Ireland (2).
Diverse sample of participants
who were interviewed within the
framework of a larger survey
study of trust and governance.
Semi-structured formats
permitted identification of issues
carrying negative (and positive)
implications for politicians’ well-
being.
Specific question included: “Has
your work as an elected politician
impacted your mental health or
wellbeing? If so, how?”.

21. 21Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu. 2: What are the consequences of polarisation?

22. 22Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu. 2: What are the consequences of polarisation?
‘I’ve never had a job in my life where people get to sling mud at me, and almost assassinate my character
whenever the hell they feel like it, for no reason. Like sure, if I did something wrong, then okay, fine, I kind
of brought it on. But to the best of my ability, I’m trying to be as good and do this job as well as possible.
So with that, it really feels unjustified. It hurts and I think that over time really weighs you down.’ UK MP.
‘I’ve worked at XXXX, I’ve worked at XXXX; I’ve worked in the military. Then you really are a team –
whether you’re army, navy or air force -and you’re not really lonely. Here there’s all the façade of being a
team but you have to be very guarded about what you say and who you say it to and your colleagues
because you’re not necessarily.’ Canadian MP.
“I'm on Twitter which is by and large the darkest thing that’s ever entered politics. The only thing that’s
worse is Facebook I think. And you can get… I’ll not read the replies on my Twitter because it doesn’t
matter what, you get absolutely slaughtered by the public and some of your colleagues too. If you read
them you think your days are numbered. It’s the end of your life never mind the end of your career.”
Australian MP.

23. 23Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu. 2: What are the consequences of polarisation?
PHQ-9 scores for politicians in the UK, Canada and South Africa
‘No’ -‘Mild’ Depressive
Symptoms
‘Moderate’ Depressive
Symptoms
‘Moderately Severe’ -
‘Severe’ Depressive
Symptoms
Level of Concern: Common. No concern. Occasional. Non-
clinical cause for
concern.
Serious. Clinical cut-
point for episode of
major depression.
MPs (N=128)
December 2020/
January 2021
62% 26% 12%
Councillors (N=438)
December 2021/
January 2022
59% 25% 16%

24. 24Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu. 2: What are the consequences of polarisation?
Relationship between felt distrust and mental health
Felt distrust
Definition: extent to which MPs perceive
that the public views them as
untrustworthy (i.e. incompetent, self-
interested, lacking integrity).
Measurement: 24-item questionnaire
with 7-point scale for each item.
Analysis: Moving across the scale for
felt distrust correlates with an average
19% increase in politicians’ PHQ-9
scores.
Dependent variable: PHQ-9
score
Predictors EstimatesCI p
(Intercept) 9.216.37–12.06<0.001
Felt Distrust (0-7) 0.860.46–1.26<0.001
Age -0.11-0.14–-0.07<0.001
Sex [Male] -1.61-2.60–-0.620.001
Safe Seat [Yes] 0.53-0.57–1.630.343
Social Media
(As mainmedia)
1.150.13–2.160.027
Ideology [Left-Right]-1.63-3.70–0.440.122
Observations 432
R
2
0.185

25. 25Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
Qu. 2: What are the consequences of polarisation?
Relationship between felt distrust, social media and mental health

26. Qu. 3: How might
we depolarise our
elites?

27. 27
Qu. 3: How might we depolarise our elites?
Dr James Weinberg ([email protected])
1.Reform party selections and introduce quotas for independent candidates or non-
member shortlists.
2.More notless professionalisation.
3.Electoral reform with a preference for closed list MMPR.
4.New institutional working arrangements (physical and procedural) to promote new forms of
interparty contact.
5.Embed interactive governance.
6.Increase and diversify the offer of political training to new elites and mandate CPD.
7.Do ‘something’ about social media!!!

28. Thank you!