Japan's Narrow Road to NetZero and a Carbon Neutral Society
munroali
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Aug 27, 2025
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About This Presentation
A general lecture on Japan's planned route to a NetZero economy which differs in many ways from other OECD countries
Slide Content
Japan’s climate change
policies: adaptation and an
uncertain path to Net Zero
ALISTAIR MUNRO, NATIONAL GRADUATE INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES
policies: adaptation and an
uncertain path to Net Zero
ALISTAIR MUNRO, NATIONAL GRADUATE INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES
What is Net Zero?
Net Zero means a situation where the carbon equivalent greenhouse
gases going into the atmosphere are exactly matched or balanced by the
removal of carbon equivalent out of the atmosphere.
GloballyNet Zero is needed if we want to halt rising greenhouse gas
concentration in the atmosphere.
There are many paths to global Net Zero and many timetables
But countries are committing to Net Zero by 2050
Japan is one such country (out of 147).
Net Zero means a situation where the carbon equivalent greenhouse
gases going into the atmosphere are exactly matched or balanced by the
removal of carbon equivalent out of the atmosphere.
GloballyNet Zero is needed if we want to halt rising greenhouse gas
concentration in the atmosphere.
There are many paths to global Net Zero and many timetables
But countries are committing to Net Zero by 2050
Japan is one such country (out of 147).
Introduction
This talk is about Japan’s current plans for achieving Net Zero.
I begin with a bit of background about Japan’s current situation
Then focus on how Japan is different in some important ways.
Of course many policies (e.g. building insulation) are similar to Europe and
elsewhere.
Japan’s chosen road gives it a narrower path to success
And a more costly one.
This talk is about Japan’s current plans for achieving Net Zero.
I begin with a bit of background about Japan’s current situation
Then focus on how Japan is different in some important ways.
Of course many policies (e.g. building insulation) are similar to Europe and
elsewhere.
Japan’s chosen road gives it a narrower path to success
And a more costly one.
Japan’s history of emissions
The units are kg Greenhouse gas
equivalent (GHGe) per capita per year
Overall, Japan is 6
th
largest emitter
Currently per capita is lower than USA,
Canada, China, South Korea
Higher than EU countries
Jumped up after 2011 earthquake
In decline since 2013
(Sri Lanka was 1.83 in 2022)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
198019851990199520002005201020152020
GHG Emissions Per Capita
Canada
China
Germany
France and Monaco
United Kingdom
Japan
South Korea
United States
Equivalent means
Each gas amount is
Converted into its
equivalent in co2
The units are kg Greenhouse gas
equivalent (GHGe) per capita per year
Overall, Japan is 6
th
largest emitter
Currently per capita is lower than USA,
Canada, China, South Korea
Higher than EU countries
Jumped up after 2011 earthquake
In decline since 2013
(Sri Lanka was 1.83 in 2022)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
198019851990199520002005201020152020
GHG Emissions Per Capita
Canada
China
Germany
France and Monaco
United Kingdom
Japan
South Korea
United States
Equivalent means
Each gas amount is
Converted into its
equivalent in co2
Japan’s history of renewables
Rising trend driven by solar Significantly lower than Europe
Rising trend driven by solar Significantly lower than Europe
Policy to 2030 (reaffirmed at COP28)
46% drop in GHGecompared to 2013
Higher emphasis on renewables.
Particularly solar
Bounce back for nuclear (which
fell dramatically after 2011)
Continuing role for coal
Voluntary carbon trading schemes
17 trillion yen in support
46% drop in GHGecompared to 2013
Higher emphasis on renewables.
Particularly solar
Bounce back for nuclear (which
fell dramatically after 2011)
Continuing role for coal
Voluntary carbon trading schemes
17 trillion yen in support
Economic Principles of NetZero Policy
1.
Feasibility –the policy actually has to achieve the goal
2.
Efficiency –the policy should minimize the cost to the economy
3.
Fairness –the cost of the policy should by fairly shared.
1.
Feasibility –the policy actually has to achieve the goal
2.
Efficiency –the policy should minimize the cost to the economy
3.
Fairness –the cost of the policy should by fairly shared.
Efficiency: Marginal cost of
abatement (for carbon)
The marginal cost of abatement (MCA) is the cost to society of reducing 1
tonne equivalent of carbon
To minimizethe cost to the economy of combatting climate change it’s
fundamental that the lowest MCA investment is chosen first
4.3
2.4
3
2
7
0
2
4
6
8
Insulation Solar power
Wind power Reforestation
Carbon sequestration
2
2.4
3
4.3
7
0
2
4
6
8
Reforestation Solar power
Wind power Insulation
Carbon sequestration
abatement (for carbon)
The marginal cost of abatement (MCA) is the cost to society of reducing 1
tonne equivalent of carbon
To minimizethe cost to the economy of combatting climate change it’s
fundamental that the lowest MCA investment is chosen first
4.3
2.4
3
2
7
0
2
4
6
8
Insulation Solar power
Wind power Reforestation
Carbon sequestration
2
2.4
3
4.3
7
0
2
4
6
8
Reforestation Solar power
Wind power Insulation
Carbon sequestration
Efficiency: Marginal cost of
abatement (for carbon)
The marginal cost of abatement (MCA) is the cost to society of reducing 1
tonne equivalent of carbon
To minimizethe cost to the economy of combatting climate change it’s
fundamental that the lowest MCA investment is chosen first
If a carbon price is used the market will do this prioritisation
2
2.4
3
4.3
7
0
2
4
6
8
1
Reforestation Solar power
Wind power Insulation
Carbon sequestration
Carbon
price
Abatement will be
profitable when MCA>P and
Not profitable when MCA<P P
abatement (for carbon)
The marginal cost of abatement (MCA) is the cost to society of reducing 1
tonne equivalent of carbon
To minimizethe cost to the economy of combatting climate change it’s
fundamental that the lowest MCA investment is chosen first
If a carbon price is used the market will do this prioritisation
2
2.4
3
4.3
7
0
2
4
6
8
1
Reforestation Solar power
Wind power Insulation
Carbon sequestration
Carbon
price
Abatement will be
profitable when MCA>P and
Not profitable when MCA<P P
Efficiency: Marginal cost of
abatement (for carbon)
Over time, the MCA curve can shift as new technologies emerge
Learning and economies of scale may hinder a purely market approach
So sometimesit is optimal to favour technologies that are currently
inefficient
0
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2
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7
8
012345
0
1
2
3
4
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7
8
012345
abatement (for carbon)
Over time, the MCA curve can shift as new technologies emerge
Learning and economies of scale may hinder a purely market approach
So sometimesit is optimal to favour technologies that are currently
inefficient
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
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8
012345
How does
Japan achieve
NetZero?
Japan achieve
NetZero?
Through population decline?
We know Japanese population is
falling (300,000 per year)
And the Japanese population is
getting older.
Will that do the job?
We know Japanese population is
falling (300,000 per year)
And the Japanese population is
getting older.
Will that do the job?
Population decline/ageing doesn’t
do the job
60% of carbon emissions arise in the
household sector
Population will fall from 126.5m to
106m
So a (crude) estimate is a drop of 11%
in emissions
Meanwhile, an aging population has
little effect on emissions
Though this is under-researched issue
Aging might also weaken support for
mitigation policies (but there is also no
evidence for this).
In short population
Aging doesn’t get us to
NetZero
do the job
60% of carbon emissions arise in the
household sector
Population will fall from 126.5m to
106m
So a (crude) estimate is a drop of 11%
in emissions
Meanwhile, an aging population has
little effect on emissions
Though this is under-researched issue
Aging might also weaken support for
mitigation policies (but there is also no
evidence for this).
In short population
Aging doesn’t get us to
NetZero
Through carbon pricing?
A carbon price guides the efficient
deployment of technologies.
The current Japan carbon price is
approx. US$2
It is one of the lowest in the OECD
Estimated carbon price required to
achieve 2030 targets is >US$30
Some plans for a ‘carbon levy’
Currently Japan’s carbon pricing is
essentially irrelevant
Japan
A carbon price guides the efficient
deployment of technologies.
The current Japan carbon price is
approx. US$2
It is one of the lowest in the OECD
Estimated carbon price required to
achieve 2030 targets is >US$30
Some plans for a ‘carbon levy’
Currently Japan’s carbon pricing is
essentially irrelevant
Japan
Through carbon trading?
When countries vary in MCA they can
lower costs by trading.
Countries with lower costs can be paid
to cut more carbon by countries with
higher costs, so that all gain.
In East Asia, China has the lowest MCA,
followed by Japan. S. Korea is much
higher.
Linked carbon markets could lower the
costsof meeting 2030 targets (and
beyond).
But Japan has ruled out international
trading. So not carbon
trading
When countries vary in MCA they can
lower costs by trading.
Countries with lower costs can be paid
to cut more carbon by countries with
higher costs, so that all gain.
In East Asia, China has the lowest MCA,
followed by Japan. S. Korea is much
higher.
Linked carbon markets could lower the
costsof meeting 2030 targets (and
beyond).
But Japan has ruled out international
trading. So not carbon
trading
Through renewables?
GX strategy (Green Transformation) announced in 2022 December
Runs initially to 2030
17 trillion yen investment target across all climate policies
Current aim is 36-38% of energy from renewables by 2030
Exact plan for 2030-50 is still not clear
But in general…
GX strategy (Green Transformation) announced in 2022 December
Runs initially to 2030
17 trillion yen investment target across all climate policies
Current aim is 36-38% of energy from renewables by 2030
Exact plan for 2030-50 is still not clear
But in general…
Japan’s path is different
In 2050
Less wind (blue)
Less solar (yellow)
More nuclear (pink)
More fossil fuels
More carbon capture
In short, fewer
renewables
In 2050
Less wind (blue)
Less solar (yellow)
More nuclear (pink)
More fossil fuels
More carbon capture
In short, fewer
renewables
Japan is different: Ammonia, Hydrogen,
Carbon Capture are central
In contrast to most nations, Japan’s policy emphasizes new technologies.
Ammonia co-burning
Hydrogen
Carbon capture.
And extending the lifespan of
Coal
Nuclear power
Carbon Capture are central
In contrast to most nations, Japan’s policy emphasizes new technologies.
Ammonia co-burning
Hydrogen
Carbon capture.
And extending the lifespan of
Coal
Nuclear power
Co-burning Ammonia (NH
3
)
Plan is to modify existing
coal power stations
NH
3
is mixed with coal dust
and burnt in a low oxygen
environment
To produce mostly Nitrogen
and water
And less CO
2
Initially, 20% ammonia then
50% and up
Retro-fitting may be low-cost
Easier to manage load balance,
compared to renewables
Unproven technology
Requires ammonia!
3
)
Plan is to modify existing
coal power stations
NH
3
is mixed with coal dust
and burnt in a low oxygen
environment
To produce mostly Nitrogen
and water
And less CO
2
Initially, 20% ammonia then
50% and up
Retro-fitting may be low-cost
Easier to manage load balance,
compared to renewables
Unproven technology
Requires ammonia!
Co-burning ammonia
Ammonia requires energy to be produced:
“Grey” ammonia uses fossil fuels for the energy. “Blue”
ammonia uses fossil fuel, but uses carbon capture to limit
emissions.
“Green” ammonia uses renewable energy
Greener ammonia technology is not cheap (renewables are
cheaper)
AndGrey ammonia is not carbon-saving -2x carbon emissions
for 20% ammonia
And we need ammonia for other purposes
coal
Ammonia requires energy to be produced:
“Grey” ammonia uses fossil fuels for the energy. “Blue”
ammonia uses fossil fuel, but uses carbon capture to limit
emissions.
“Green” ammonia uses renewable energy
Greener ammonia technology is not cheap (renewables are
cheaper)
AndGrey ammonia is not carbon-saving -2x carbon emissions
for 20% ammonia
And we need ammonia for other purposes
coal
Hydrogen & carbon capture
Hydrogen
As with ammonia, hydrogen can be
grey, blue or green
Portable
Rapid controllability of use reduces
need for batteries etc.
High MCA
Carbon capture
Directly taken from the air (DAC)
Or captured after combustion (CCU)
Injected into the ground
DAC and CCU are to some extent
complementssince CCU is not
completely efficient and DAC is costly.
High MCA >$400
DAC, CCU are alternatives to biological
carbon capture (BECCS)
Hydrogen
As with ammonia, hydrogen can be
grey, blue or green
Portable
Rapid controllability of use reduces
need for batteries etc.
High MCA
Carbon capture
Directly taken from the air (DAC)
Or captured after combustion (CCU)
Injected into the ground
DAC and CCU are to some extent
complementssince CCU is not
completely efficient and DAC is costly.
High MCA >$400
DAC, CCU are alternatives to biological
carbon capture (BECCS)
Why?Suggestions include:
Greater NIMBY power in Japan
Restricting land use conversion to solar power
Resistance to fishing areas being used for offshore wind
Reluctance to allow geothermal energy in onsenregions
Stronger role of industry in creating policy.
Unique conditions of Japan
Lower wind, fewer suitable areas for wind power
2011 impact on nuclear power
Greater NIMBY power in Japan
Restricting land use conversion to solar power
Resistance to fishing areas being used for offshore wind
Reluctance to allow geothermal energy in onsenregions
Stronger role of industry in creating policy.
Unique conditions of Japan
Lower wind, fewer suitable areas for wind power
2011 impact on nuclear power
Adaptation
LET’S BE CLEAR: ADAPTATION
IS SEPARATE FROM NET-ZERO
LET’S BE CLEAR: ADAPTATION
IS SEPARATE FROM NET-ZERO
Adaptation in Japan
Climate change for Japan means
1.
Higher temperatures (especially in the north)
2.
Lower rainfall in north-west
3.
Higher intensity rainfall events
4.
Extreme heat events
5.
Sea level rise
6.
Storm surges
Climate change for Japan means
1.
Higher temperatures (especially in the north)
2.
Lower rainfall in north-west
3.
Higher intensity rainfall events
4.
Extreme heat events
5.
Sea level rise
6.
Storm surges
Some climate change impacts for Japan
Extreme heat events
Are increasing
Extreme heat events
Are increasing
Invasive plants & pests
Area suitable for bamboo forest
expands
Mosquito range expands
Area suitable for bamboo forest
expands
Mosquito range expands
Potential adaptations
Rice producing areas change
Strengthening of sea/flood defences.
Greening of cities
Rice producing areas change
Strengthening of sea/flood defences.
Greening of cities
Co-benefits
Co-benefits occur when a policy aimed mainly at problem a also reduces
problem b
In the case of climate change policy, reducing carbon emissions may
improve air quality
(Alternatively, improving air quality may reduce carbon emissions)
For Japan, air quality benefits can be small.
Other co-benefits may also be possible –e.g. sea defences provide
protection against tsunamis
Co-benefits occur when a policy aimed mainly at problem a also reduces
problem b
In the case of climate change policy, reducing carbon emissions may
improve air quality
(Alternatively, improving air quality may reduce carbon emissions)
For Japan, air quality benefits can be small.
Other co-benefits may also be possible –e.g. sea defences provide
protection against tsunamis
Co-benefits
For many countries:
Mitigation is not privately optimal (better to free ride)
Benefits from carbon mitigation are very long term
But
Co-benefits are quick to arrive and increase the domestic benefits of
mitigation.
Hence they provide a means to justify mitigation policies
For many countries:
Mitigation is not privately optimal (better to free ride)
Benefits from carbon mitigation are very long term
But
Co-benefits are quick to arrive and increase the domestic benefits of
mitigation.
Hence they provide a means to justify mitigation policies
Co-benefits
Example
REF is a medium growth, no climate
policy scenario
RCP4.5 applies a global carbon price
such that 2100 CO
2
concentration
decreases from 760 ppm to 525 ppm
Chart shows mortality rates for ozone
and PM2.5
Co-benefits from less coal burning
Example
REF is a medium growth, no climate
policy scenario
RCP4.5 applies a global carbon price
such that 2100 CO
2
concentration
decreases from 760 ppm to 525 ppm
Chart shows mortality rates for ozone
and PM2.5
Co-benefits from less coal burning
Concluding
In 1689 the poet, Basho, made a long tour of isolated parts of Honshu. The title
of the resulting book is often translated as ‘the narrow road to the deep north’
Basho set out uncertainly, unclear whether he would complete his journey
Japan is in a similar position with regard to Net Zero 2050
It has chosen its own road
Largely eschewed the mix of policies favoured by other industrialised countries
It’s putting heavy reliance on new, unproven technologies with high MCA and
It is continuing to build coal powered plants
Let us hope it succeeds.
In 1689 the poet, Basho, made a long tour of isolated parts of Honshu. The title
of the resulting book is often translated as ‘the narrow road to the deep north’
Basho set out uncertainly, unclear whether he would complete his journey
Japan is in a similar position with regard to Net Zero 2050
It has chosen its own road
Largely eschewed the mix of policies favoured by other industrialised countries
It’s putting heavy reliance on new, unproven technologies with high MCA and
It is continuing to build coal powered plants
Let us hope it succeeds.
Climate change: summing up
Most of the emissions are generated in richer countries (though this is
changing rapidly)
Most of the serious impacts of climate change will probably be felt in
poorer countries.
Most of the lower cost methods for dealing with the problem involve
poorer countries and therefore require financial and technological
transfers.
Emission gap remains large and financial flows are limited
Most of the emissions are generated in richer countries (though this is
changing rapidly)
Most of the serious impacts of climate change will probably be felt in
poorer countries.
Most of the lower cost methods for dealing with the problem involve
poorer countries and therefore require financial and technological
transfers.
Emission gap remains large and financial flows are limited
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