Mahan Sea Power

STRATEGIC STUDIES - SEA POWER

1. TUTORIAL GROUP 4 STRATEGIC STUDIES AND SECURITY AFFAIRS IN ASIA REGION, TOPIC 5 IS ALFRED THAYER MAHAN’S GEOPOLITICAL THINKING STILL RELEVANT TODAY MEJ AHMAD FAROUQ BIN AMIR (8233033) MEJ GEORGE TAN HONG SHEN (8233062)

2. AIM To evaluate the relevancy of Mahan’s geopolitical thinking in 21 st century through global trade and naval power and a comparison using DIME analysis tool 2

3. SCOPE Introduction Mahan’s Geopolitical Tenets Global Trade Form Naval Power Comparison DIME Analysis Mahan’s Weaknesses Conclusion 3

4. INTRODUCTION 4 Who Classical Geopolitical Thinkers: Alfred Thayer Mahan , Halford Mackinder, Nicholas J Spykman What Sea power Why Grand strategy – military strategy elements – sea power When Late 19 th century Where US – applied by German during WW2. 21 st century? How DIME analysis

5. INTRODUCTION 5 “ Control of the sea by maritime commerce and naval supremacy means predominant influence in the world … (and) is the chief among the merely material elements in the power and prosperity of nations ” Alfred Thayer Mahan, 1890 Rear Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840 – 1914) Naval Strategist & Geopolitics Source: https://www.fpri.org/article/2016/08/influence-thinkers-ideas-history-case-alfred-thayer-mahan/ “ he that commands the sea, commands the trade, and he that is lord of the trade of the world is lord of the wealth of the world .” H. M.’s Servant Sir Walter Raleigh, 1829

6. MAHAN’S GEOPOLITICAL TENETS 6 Success of a Nation Production Shipping Colonies Having resources & process into products Ports to trade effectively Means to transport/trade Quickest & cheapest way Control of routes – control economy Provide options for trade & resources More ports to resupply Need strong navy to protect – SEA POWER

7. MAHAN’S GEOPOLITICAL TENETS 7 Elements of Sea Power Political Structure Geographical Position Physical Conformation Extent of Territory Population Size National Character Government shape its nation – policy for sea power Responsible for national character Disposition of naval forces Provide strategic position to attack / defend trade routes Aptitude for commercial pursuits Support government policy – sea power Natural resources & climate Contour of coast, number & quality of harbours determine ease of sea access Those who followed callings to the sea – with potential to join navy The need for ‘coaling stations’ to resupply Larger territory – further journey & more trade options

8. GLOBAL TRADE FORM 8 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc., World Trade Service. Does not include intra-EU trade. https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter7/transborder-crossborder-transportation/world-trade-modal-share/ Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=International_trade_in_goods_by_mode_of_transport Source: https://hbs.unctad.org/maritime-transport/

9. NAVAL POWER COMPARISON 9 Source: https://www.wdmmw.org/ranking.php Source: https://ceoworld.biz/2022/03/31/economy-rankings-largest-countries-by-gdp-2022/ “ Control of the sea by maritime commerce and naval supremacy means predominant influence in the world ” Alfred Thayer Mahan, 1890

10. NAVAL POWER COMPARISON 10 Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2016/02/26/10-maps-that-explain-russias-strategy/?sh=649eb94c23ec Russian European Peninsula is surrounded by The Baltic and North Seas T he Atlantic Ocean The Mediterranean and Black Seas. 3 potential points to access global maritime trade. through the Black Sea and the Bosporus, a narrow waterway controlled by Turkey that can easily be closed to Russia. from St. Petersburg, where ships can sail through Danish waters, but this passageway can also be easily blocked. Arctic Ocean route, starting from Murmansk and then extending through the gaps between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom.

11. DIME ANALYSIS 11 VIETNAM LAOS DIPLOMATIC Socialist, Communist State International relations with ASEAN, China and US INFORMATIONAL Natural resources – earth minerals Population concentrate on coastline and Mekong River Natural resources – Timber Population concentrate on Mekong River MILITARY 470,000 troops (40,000 Navy) Defence budget – 2.3% GDP (2017) 30,000 troops (NIL Navy) Defence budget – 0.2% GDP (2017) ECONOMIC GDP – USD 415.5 billion Rank 36 globally International trade - US, Japan and South Korea GDP – USD 20.6 billion Rank 115 globally International trade – limited to Thailand, China, Vietnam Mahan tenets: Production Colonies Shipping Source: https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/vietnam.laos

12. DIME ANALYSIS 12 Source: https://hbs.unctad.org/gross-domestic-product/ Switzerland also landlocked GDP – USD 862.8 billion Maintains good diplomatic relations with neighbour country (Germany, Austria, Italy, France) ELEMENTS OF SEA POWER Geographical Position Physical Conformation Extent of Territory Population Size National Character Political Structure

13. MAHAN’S WEAKNESSES 13 Weakness of Mahan’s Theory Power projection was ignored – reliance on land Did not anticipate the power of submarine Flexibility in alliance and basing, sea powers suffer from credibility gap that weakens their staying power in faraway lands Missed out technology advances in 20 th century

14. RECAP - MAHAN THEORY 14 Success of a Nation Production Shipping Colonies Elements of Sea Power Political Structure Geographical Position Physical Conformation Extent of Territory Population Size National Character Alfred Thayer Mahan, published The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660–1783 in 1890. Mahan’s writings and lectures greatly influenced Theodore Roosevelt, Henry Cabot Lodge , and other world leaders, including German Emperor Wilhelm II , shaping global policy based on sea power at the beginning of the 20th century.

15. CONCLUSION 15 Alfred Thayer Mahan’s geopolitical thinking is still relevant today However, in 21st century context, sea is not the only modes of transport. Land and air modes of transport are improving, in terms of technology and accessibility, could one day overwhelm the importance of sea/maritime.

16. REFERENCES 1. A. Dimitropoulou . (2022, March 31). Economy Rankings: Largest countries by GDP, 2022. CEOWORLD Magazine. https://ceoworld.biz/2022/03/31/economy-rankings-largest-countries-by-gdp-2022/ 2. G. Friedman. (2016, February 26). 10 Maps That Explain Russia’s Strategy. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2016/02/26/10-maps-that-explain-russias-strategy/?sh=649eb94c23ec 3. Global Naval Powers Ranking (2023). (n.d.). Retrieved 18 February 2023, from https://www.wdmmw.org/ranking.php 4. Iliopoulos, I. (2009). Strategy and Geopolitics of Sea Power throughout History. International trade in goods by mode of transport - Statistics Explained. (n.d.). Retrieved 18 February 2023, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=International_trade_in_goods_by_mode_of_transport 5. J.P Rodrigue. (2020). Modal Shares of World Trade by Volume and Value, 2008 | The Geography of Transport Systems. Routledge. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429346323   16

17. REFERENCES 6. Parker, R. D. (2003). 3. ADA526258. Mahan for the Twenty First Century: His Principles Still Apply to National Power. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA526258.pdf 7. Sumida, J. (1999). Alfred Thayer Mahan, geopolitician. Journal of Strategic Studies, 22(2–3), 39–62. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402399908437753 8. Vietnam vs. Laos - Country Comparison. (n.d.). Retrieved 18 February 2023, from https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/vietnam.laos   17

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