Marketing Simulation; Examples

An alternative to marketing mix modeling exists that provides more comprehensive and nuanced insights to how marketing works. In this document, is a compendium of marketing cases that were solved with simulation.

1. Case Studies
A sample of applications of Concentric software
Simulate Your Market
© Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.

2. Concentric Applications
All the ways you can use our simulation technology
Concentric simulations support decision-making in situations when the business questions are complex
and the outcomes risky. Depending on two criteria, (1) the organizational need to act and (2) the
degree of uncertainty the organization is facing, Concentric simulations serve different needs.















When the pressure to act and the uncertainty is low, Concentric users seek efficiencies in their current
strategy and environment. They optimize their marketing investments and product design, explore the
sensitivities of their markets, find synergies in touchpoints, and create repeatable processes to quickly
evaluate the best course of action.

When the pressure to act is low but the uncertainty is high, organizations apply Concentric to test and
learn – they run attribution analysis to understand the contribution of each touchpoint and prepare for
contingencies, like changing consumer preferences, new competitive product launches, or
unpredictable viral events.

When the pressure to act is high, but the uncertainty is low, Concentric users evaluate trade-offs in
their next steps. They create multiple what-if scenarios, brainstorm approaches, come up with tactics
and then compare the pros and cons of all of them through simulation.

Finally, in highly uncertain environments when the need to act is high, organizations use Concentric to
launch products, counter competitive entrants, and explore the viability of entering new markets.
They quantify the risk of each alternative go-to-market strategy and have a system to measure the
viability of new ideas.

The following pages show a sample of business questions that users have answered with Concentric
software in each type of environment.

Happy modeling.


© Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. 2

3. Contents
A sample of applications


© Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. 3
5 Streaming Video
What media allocation maximizes subscriptions?
7 Banking
What portfolio allocation reaches our targets?
9 Automotive
What marketing investment maximizes web traffic?
11 Pre-paid Wireless
Which strategy for which region?
13 Coffee Maker
Invest in product or in-store marketing?
15 Soup
Would promotions increase sales?
17 Telecom
How does sentiment move market share?
19 Vitamin Supplement
What channels and what timing for a new message?
21 Luxury Perfume
What is the impact of earned media?
22 Airline
How do we minimize the effect of negative word of mouth?
24 Credit Card
What is the trade-off between profit and reputation?
26 Internet TV Network
What is the risk of competitive pricing moves?
27 Magazine
How do we make our brand more engaging?
29 Pharma
Which launch strategy reaches our sales target?

4. How to Read the Cases
A visual guide
Business question
A brief background of the
case and the questions the
users needed to address
Primary Brand
The user that applied
Concentric software to
answer the question
Concentric Software
The Concentric product
used: M for Market, J for
Journey, and C for Cloud
Application Type
The location of this business
question in the Concentric
quadrant from page 2
Project Framework
The components of the
market that were included in
the analysis
Concentric Outputs
Charts that show the
accuracy of the simulations,
diagnostic insights, and
answer the business
question
4

5. -
10
20
30
40
50
Subscribership (millions)

2012 Validation
TV or not TV?
What media allocation maximizes subscriptions?
At the start of 2013, an Online Video Retailer was at a cross-roads: after years of sustained
subscribership growth, the company now needed to keep, rather than win new subscribers in the U.S.
market. The dilemma was how much, if at all, the Online Video Retailer should continue to invest in TV.
The business question was, “As a digital company, shouldn’t we advertise in digital channels only?”

The Online Video Retailer users uncovered that not only should they stay the course with TV, but that
TV should be increased so that the synergies between TV and Digital channels maximize retention.
Alternatives

Online Video Retailer
Online Competitor
Online Competitor 2
Retail Video Kiosk
Premium Cable
Pay as You Go
Video Retailer
Attributes

Price
TV Selection
Movie Selection
Exclusive Content
Simple and Easy
Newest Releases
Personalization
Family Friendly
Segments

All U.S. population
Touchpoints

Digital by type
TV by creative
Radio
Print
Email
OOH
Social (FB/TW)
PR (TV)

A holdout period showed the predictive power of the simulation
The simulation was fit to 2011 and 2012
subscriptions, consideration, and perceptions
with <5% error across all brands and metrics
Concentric M™ forecasted
subscriptions with <1% error
27
28
29
30
31
32
Subscribership (millions)

2013 Holdout Forecast
Simulated Actual
M
5 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Streaming
Video
Optimize
0

6. TV or not TV?
What media allocation maximizes subscriptions?
Simulation diagnostics provide attribution and cross-channel effects
What-if analysis shows the best allocation: highest sales, lowest risk
Paid Attribution Subs LiftPaid Attribution Investment
The Direct Response TV touchpoint has the greatest ROI
3,309
801
2,156
352
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2012 YE Incremental
Subscriptions

Thousands

10.6%
TV and Digital together add 10.6% extra
subscribers due to the synergetic effects
23.0
23.2
23.4
23.6
23.8
24.0
24.2
24.4
24.6
24.8
Online Video Subscriptions

Millions

Digital $155M $149M $144M $139M $134M $129M $124M $119M $114M $109M $104M
TV $7M $12M $17M $22M $27M $32M $37M $42M $47M $52M $57M
2012
Levels
Best
Mix
-3.7% -4.6%
8.6%
1.2%
0.4%
1.5%
5.3%
-10.3%
1.7%
ROI

Concentric M™ Recommendation: Invest $20M more in Direct Response TV
Streaming
Video
M
6 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Optimize

7. -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Members

Auto - Simulation
Auto - Actual
Two Birds with One Budget
What portfolio allocation reaches our targets?
A retail bank offering its members auto insurance in addition to deposit products wanted to know if an
allocation of marketing investments exists between its deposit and the auto-insurance products so that
both goals can be reached.

After a calibration and attribution analyses, the users of Concentric M™ ran hundreds of scenarios and
different budgeting allocations to try to reach the stated goals. They found that while the deposit goals
were easily reachable, the auto insurance targets could only be achieved by increasing the budget.
Alternatives

Auto-insurance
Product
Deposit Service
Retail Bank A
Retail Bank B
Auto Insurer A
Auto Insurer B
Auto Insurer C

Attributes

Master Brand
Premiums
Service
Policy Options
Rates
ATM Fees
Banking Options
Segments

Auto Insurance Seekers

Deposit Products
Seekers

Auto-insurance and
Deposit Seekers
Touchpoints

TV
Radio
Magazine
Online
OOH


Calibration was a principal proof point of the simulation’s accuracy
The simulation was fit to memberships levels with <1% error for both auto insurance products and deposit services
Banking M
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Members

Deposits - Simulation
Deposits - Actual
7 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Find
Efficiencies

8. Base,
817,500
Media,
230,000
Base,
952,500
Media,
70,000
Two Birds with One Budget
What portfolio allocation reaches our targets?
Diagnostics show differences in media role for auto insurance and deposits
Auto insurance target goals cannot be reached with current investment
M
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Scenario 1
Diversify

Low upside, but less risk.

Best scenario for reaching
5% deposit target while
maintaining low downside
risk of share loss in auto.
Scenario 2
Auto TV increase

Best upside for insurance.

Auto insurance gain but low
certainty in forecast.
Deposit highly likely to
achieve the target.
Scenario 3
Auto Radio/Deposits TV

High risk, high gain.

High volatility for insurance
and highest risk of overall
portfolio loss.


Deposit
Target
Insurance
Target
Baseline
Concentric M™ Recommendation: Increase the marketing budget for auto insurance
13.2%
44.9%
14.1%
27.8%
An attribution analysis shows the contribution of media to sales, as well as the break-out of each touchpoint group.
37.6%
20.3%
30.6%
11.5%
Auto Insurance
Sales Attribution
Deposit Product
Sales Attribution
All other
media
Member
magazine
Radio
Display
TV
8 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Banking
Find
Efficiencies

9. Gone in 60 Clicks
What marketing investment maximizes web traffic?
A technology company hopes to gain a deeper understanding of the purchase path in the economy car
sector. This will allow them to build advertising solutions that drive more website traffic, and
ultimately sales, for their client. This also provides opportunity to improve their platforms.

Concentric J™ revealed which platforms drove more web traffic for an auto manufacturer, providing
guidance on how the technology company could provide the best outcomes for their client.

Alternatives

Economy Sedan
Competitor A
Competitor B
Competitor C
Competitor D
Competitor E

Attributes

Master Brand
Fuel Efficiency
Safety
Price
Performance
Warranty
Technology
Segments

High Knowledge

Medium Knowledge

Low Knowledge


Touchpoints




J
TV
OOH
Magazine
Newspaper
Radio






Email
Gaming
Platforms
Home Page
Search
Auto Sites




The simulation was calibrated to website traffic data for each competitor
4.97
2.26 2.25
2.44
1.45
1.93
4.85
2.21
2.42
2.24
1.55
2.02
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Economy
Sedan
Competitor
A
Competitor
B
Competitor
C
Competitor
D
Competitor
E
Website Visits (Millions)

ActualSimulated
9 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Automotive
Find
Efficiencies

10. Gone in 60 Clicks
What marketing investment maximizes web traffic?
Testing different combinations of platforms provides a winning strategy
Concentric J™ Recommendation: Increase budget in automotive websites
10 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Automotive J
0.0%
2.1%
1.9%
1.3%
1.1%
1.8%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Base MS Auto 1.5 MS Auto 2.5MS Windows 4 MS Bing 5 Auto 1.5 +
Windows 1
Website Traffic Increase

Sensitivity Analysis reveals which platforms yield more website traffic
Auto 1.5% Auto 2.5% Search 5% Auto 1.5%
Home Page 1%
Base Gaming 4%
These mix reallocations keep the overall budget constant, so any increase in investment in one platform
cuts investment in other touchpoints. Applying 1.5% of the economy sedan brand’s budget to the
technology company’s auto site yields the greatest increases in web traffic.
The analysis reveals that the Automotive websites are more effective at generating website traffic
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Change in Website Traffic

Spend as Percent of Budget
Search
Automotive
Websites
Gaming
Platforms
Email
Home Page
Find
Efficiencies

11. 165
69
155
71
35
106
194
73
170
78
33
127
Gross Adds (000)

ForecastData
The Eastern Expansion
Which strategy for which region?
The simulation fit to last year’s sales and media mix outputs
Last year’s gross adds were matched to the simulated
gross adds for every competitor with <7% error
Pre-paid
Wireless
A pre-paid wireless provider grew out of it’s presence in the Southwest and expanded rapidly
nationally. The marketing strategy faced two challenges: (1) attract a new target population without
alienating the base subscribers; and (2) fine-tune the marketing plan for each market area (DMA).

To this end, the pre-paid wireless provider tested two marketing plans in each DMA: one created by
their media agency and another created by the regional team. A team of Concentric users evaluated
each according to the performance for each target group and each DMA.
Alternatives

Pre-Paid Provider
Telco A
Telco B
Telco C
Telco D
Pre-Paid Rival


Attributes

Rate Plan Price
Promotional Price
Call Reliability
Wireless Footprint
Device Lineup
Contract Flexibility
Master Brand
Segments

Base Subscribers Low
Income
Base Subscribers High
Income
Target Subscribers Low
Income
Target Subscribers High
Income
Touchpoints

TV by channel
Digital by site
Radio
OOH
Magazine
Social Media
Store (owned)
C
0
1
2
3
4
5
1 251 501 751 1001
Incremental Gross
Adds (000)

GRPs
Concentric M™
Simulated
Response
Media Mix
Model Output
The Pre-Paid Provider’s media mix model validated
the simulated market sensitivity to media
11 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Streamline
Processes
0 250 500 750 1000

GRPs

12. Simulation of the current plan and new ideas uncovered trade-offs
The Eastern Expansion
Which strategy for which region?
Regional simulations showed geographical differences between the plans
Concentric C™ Process Improvement: Test each DMA before implementing the plan
Simulations of each DMA in the U.S. show that the TV + Online plan wins overall, mostly because it wins in the West,
where the subscribership base is the largest. The Pre-Paid Provider implemented the strategy with the better
forecast in each DMA for a 4% annual growth.
Pre-paid
Wireless C
4%
6%
-1%
3%
7%
-3%
-2%
1%
Total U.S.
South
West
East
Current Plan TV + Online Only
Low Income
0
3
5
8
10
Gross Adds (000)

0
20
40
60
80
Gross Adds (000)

High Income
General
Population
Target
Population
Simulations of the TV + Online Only
media plan showed a 200%
increase in the high income target
population, at the expense of
about 10% decrease in the high
income general population
segment. The difference between
the current and TV + Online plans
was insignificant in the low income
segments.

Due to the risk of alienating the
current base, the team at the Pre-
Paid Provider decided to test every
Designated Market Area (DMA)
where they competed.
The size of the circle denotes incremental gross adds
12 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Streamline
Processes
Current Plan TV + Online Only Current Plan TV + Online Only

13. Espresso-so
Invest in product or marketing?
A manufacturer of coffee makers was facing steady sales of machines, but slowing demand for coffee
was hurting profits. In the face of competitive pressures in price, popularity, and filtered coffee, the
manufacturer needed to understand to strategize about how to increase profits.

Concentric M™ attribution uncovered why the current product performance was lagging. A set of
what-if scenarios showed that the best way to higher profits was through product experience
improvements first, and then through more efficient in-store marketing activities.


Alternatives

Coffee Maker
Low-end competitor
Filter-based
competition
Market leader

Attributes

Value
Taste
Ease of use
Pride intangible
Segments

Daily User

Occasional User


Touchpoints




Calibration to prior year sales demonstrated the simulations’ accuracy
The simulation replicated the dynamics of the market with less than 2.2% error
Coffee
Maker M
TV
Radio
Print
OOH
TV
Online






Aisle Signs
Shelf Tags
In-store
display
Sampling
Events





1,172
751
875
1,012
1,201
732
852
1,024
Market Leader
Filter-based Competition
Low-end Competitor
Coffee Maker
Actual Annual Sales
Simulated Annual Sales
2.2%
-2.4%
2.6%
2.7%
-1.2%
Market Average
13 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Evaluate
Options
(000)
Error
(000)

14. Espresso-so
Invest in product or marketing?
Diagnostics uncover product issues and in-store marketing inefficiencies
A what-if analysis shows trade-offs between a product or in-store investment
Coffee
Maker M
Concentric M™ Recommendation: Invest in the product before in-store marketing
35.9%
23.0%
5.7%
2.3%
2.0%
1.8%
1.0%
0.5%
0.3%
-16.2%
Offline Media
Online Media
WOM behavior
Online behavior
Shelf tags
Aisle signs
In-store TV
Demonstrations
Coupons
Usage
Contribution to sales for Coffee Maker
44%
2%
5%
2%
13%
3%
3%
23%
3%
8%
4%
4%
5%
50%
33%
2%
6%
2%
3%
4%
55%
1%
5%
14%
8%
15%
9%
75%
ROI per competitor
Coffee Maker Low-End Competitor
Filter-Based Competition Market Leader
Earned media, no investment
Earned media, no investment
Earned media, no investment
$15
$21
$27
$33
Annual Profit

Millions

Earned Paid
Poor usage experience accounts for a loss of 16.2% of sales. Investment in demonstrations, aisle signs, and shelf tags
have the lowest ROI. These diagnostics led the Coffee Maker brand to evaluate two strategies: Improve the product
or enhance in-store touchpoints.
Current
Strategy
In-store
Investment
Product
Improvement
14 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Evaluate
Options
Market Leader
Coffee Maker

15. Chicken Soup Got a Cold
Would promotions increase sales?
Increasing health consciousness among consumers strained Brand A sales of ready-made soup. In
addition, the main competitor, Brand B, was perceived by shoppers as being cheaper, even though
actual prices were the same. Brand A evaluated if they should run a promotional campaign to increase
sales, while at the same time not risk sales of the sister brands, Healthy A and Light A.

The users of Concentric J™ uncovered that a promotional campaign would not help, and that the
greatest opportunity is in product experience improvements in the aisle and during the meal.

Alternatives

Brand A
Healthy A
Light A
Brand B
Healthy B

Attributes

Price
Taste
Brand Reputation
Variety
Health
Package Design
Quality
Segments

Hearty Meal Lovers
Health Benefit Seekers
Taste Sophisticates
Family Pleasers
Touchpoints

TV
Print
In-store
Packaging
Calibration over time for each brand demonstrated the simulation’s accuracy
The simulation was fit to weekly purchases of all brands with <5% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
Soup
Brand A Actual
Brand A Simulated
Brand B Actual
Brand B Simulated
J
15 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Develop
Strategy

16. Chicken Soup Got a Cold
Would promotions increase sales?
Diagnostics about the changing perceptions of Brand A per journey stage
What-if analysis shows the impact on perception and sales
Brand A has a taste problem – During meals perceptions of Brand A are negatively impacted (green bar). Also, while the
general population is influenced by media advertisement (gray bar) at home, the most coveted segment (taste
sophisticates) are less influenced by media at home. Therefore, in-store programs (purple bar) have the greatest
potential to impact taste sophisticates.
Concentric M™ Recommendation: Improve product experience and avoid promotions
-2.0-1.00.0 1.0 2.0
Perception Change Index
-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
Perception Change Index
General Population Taste Sophisticates
In Aisle
At Counter
At Home
During Meal
Consumer Journey


Word-of-mouth Media Soup Experience In-store Marketing
22%
-35%
2%
-5%
-35%
22%
-30%
Change in Perceptions of Brand A
After Promotional Campaign
-3%
4%
3%
-1%
3%
Change in Sales
After Promotional Campaign
A promotional campaign may improve price and package perceptions, but taste, health, and
quality perceptions will decrease resulting in 3% less sales for Brand A.
Soup J
16 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Develop
Strategy

17. In a market in which the number of cells phones out numbers the population, Brand A
telecommunications provider looked to understand how their multiple brand metrics and market share
interact. Both metrics were coveted by the organization so they needed to understand not only the
relationship between the metrics but the effects if they decided to reposition their brand image.

To achieve brand positioning, Brand A pulled insights from multiple siloed verticals within the
organization to foster an integrated solution using the Concentric M platform.

Alternatives

Brand A
Large Competitor
Midsize Competitor
Attributes

Service
Expansiveness
Innovative
Style
Value
Segments

15-24
25-34
35-54
55-64
65+
Touchpoints

Television
Radio
Daily Press
Periodical Press
OOH
Cinema
Internet
Iterative calibration minimized the error for brand perception and market share
The simulation was fit to the annual brand index within a MAPE of less than 2.0% and to weekly market share within
a MAPE of less than 6.0% (mean absolute percentage error). In order to understand the interaction between the
two metrics, both metrics required fitting to historical data.
17 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Telecom Sonata
How does sentiment move market share? Re-invent
Telecom M
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan. Apr. Jul. Sep. Dec.
Market Share

Actual Simulated
1.8%
2.2%
1.4%
0.2%
2.3%
1.3%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Beginning Error Ending Error
Brand Index

Brand ALarge CompetitorMidsize Competitor

18. Different campaigns impact brand equity and market share differently
-1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
-0.5%
-0.8%
Market Share
-0.5%
0.9%
0.6%
-0.7%
-2.5%
Brand Index
Diagnostics showed correlation between sentiment and market share.
Each of the brand metrics included in the
simulation were tested overall and by
individual components to see if there was
a correlation between them. Tests
indicate that not all brand metrics
included were correlated.

As a part of this analysis, the brand looked
to adopt only one brand tracking metric
to stream line their insights for clearer
information and continuous feeds into
their simulation.

Further analysis in the form of what-if
scenarios were conducted in order to see
how the market responded to
repositioning their brand image.
Concentric M™ Recommendation: Invest in the Service Campaign
18 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Telecom Sonata
How does sentiment move market share? Re-invent
Telecom M
34.2%
34.5%
34.8%
35.1%
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
Jan.AprilJulyNov.Dec.
Brand Index Market Share
0%
3%
0%
1%
0% 0%
1%
0%
0% 0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
Change

Service
Innovation
Style
Value
Brand
Market Share

Sentiment

Campaign

19. 1.5%
-2.4%
-2.5%
0.1%
-0.2%
2.5%
Error
A Vitamin a Day Keeps the Doctor Away
What channels and what timing for a new message?
A leading vitamin supplement, Brand A, had positioned itself as a cold/flu relief, despite its benefits of
any-time immune boost. As a result, consumers typically purchased the supplement during the cold
and flu season, while choosing competitors throughout the year.

Brand A decided to re-brand towards continuous wellness, but the question was, should the campaigns
follow seasonality or be year-round? And should they message only in shopper channels or across
marketing touchpoints? Concentric identified trade-offs between awareness, perceptions, and sales for
all options, and showed the year-round timing across touchpoints to be the winning strategy.
Alternatives

Brand A
Private label
1
st
Tablet Alternative
2
nd
Tablet Alternative
Vitamin Alternative



Attributes

Energy Support
Immunity Support
Lifestyle
Product Performance
Wellness
Segments

Retailer 1 Shopper
Retailer 2 Shopper
Drug-store Shopper
Natural Shopper
Specialty Shopper
Other Shopper
Touchpoints

Coupons
Sampling
In-Store Displays
TV
Social Media
Magazine
PR
Radio
Store Circular


© Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Vitamin
Supplement J
Evaluate
Options
A calibration process validated the simulation sales
The simulation was fit to weekly purchases of all brands with <2% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
1,901
679
679
1,901
2,715
1,855
662
679
1,896
2,783
Vitamin Alternative
2nd Tablet Alternative
1st Tablet Alternative
Private label
Brand A
Supplement Market Sales (000's)
SimulatedActual
Market Average
19

20. What-if scenario analysis shows big trade-offs between the strategies
Attribution by journey stage shows the importance of shopper marketing
Concentric M™ Recommendation: Change the message on all touchpoints year-round
Perception attribution by journey stage revealed that shopper touchpoints drive 90% of the perception changes at
the ‘Choose’ stage. This could mean that a shopper-focused marketing plan is the right approach to change consumer
perceptions about the brand, so we tested those plans against an ‘all-marketing’ approach below.
20 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
A Vitamin a Day Keeps the Doctor Away
What channels and what timing for a new message?
Vitamin
Supplement Evaluate
Options
29%
1%
24%
35% 90%
11%
37%
9%
66%
Think Choose Use
Change of Perceptions by Stage
Earned Touchpoints
Shopper Touchpoints
Traditional Touchpoints
While shopper tactics minimize the downside of perception change due to the new campaign, the year-round
strategy that re-brands on all marketing channels is the only strategy that wins in sales.
-0.2%
5.5%
-3.1%
-3.3%
Year-round frequency in
shopper touchpoints
Sales Impact
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.0%
Awareness Impact
-4.8%
-4.1%
-2.0%
-2.1%
Perceptions Impact
Seasonal frequency in
shopper touchpoints
Year-round frequency
across all touchpoints
Seasonal frequency
across all touchpoints
Message Profile
Journey Stages
Think
Choose
Use
J

21. Scent of a Brand
What is the impact of earned media?
Simulation diagnostics show earned and owned impact and risk
Concentric M™ Insight: Earned media by itself cannot maintain the current sales level
Luxury
Perfume
Years of competitive arms racing – increasing marketing budgets among all competitors, without
increasing category demand – led a perfume manufacturer to ask “what would happen if we
diminished our marketing spend next year, rather than increase it?” Would earned and owned media
support the brand sales, without additional paid media investment?

Concentric M™ showed that although 55% of new purchases are due to earned and owned media,
sales may decrease by 6% if we decrease marketing by 10%.
Alternatives

Category Leader
Our Brand
Newcomer
7 Other Brands


Attributes

Scent intangible
Price
Bottle Design
Package Design
Brand intangible
Ingredients
Segments

Fashion-aspirational
Family-oriented
Trendy
Environmentalists
Touchpoints

TV
Print
Cinema
Online
Outdoor
Website (owned)
Facebook (owned)
Fashion Blogs (owned)
18.4%
51.9%
88.2%
81.6%
48.1%
11.8%
Newcomer
Our Brand
Category Leader
Contribution to Sales
Earned and OwnedPaid
5%
6%
1%
Sales lost if we decrease marketing
spend by 10%
M
21 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Learn

22. You Say Eyjafjallajokull, I Say Eyjafjallajökull
How do we minimize the risk of negative word of mouth?
The simulation recreated the level of observed events and behaviors
Airline
In April 2010, an Icelandic volcano covered northern Europe with an ash cloud that grounded flights for
weeks and stranded passengers – most of whom went to social media for information and to share.
One airline decided to analyze the terabytes of attitudinal, behavioral, and transactional data of the
months before and after the disruption to understand how they can react better to large social media
events that may impact the future sales and brand engagement among their customer base.
They turned to Concentric C™ for answers and found them in the analysis of their passengers social
network structure.
Alternatives

Airline
Competitor A
Competitor B
Competitor C
Attributes

Price
Service
Experience
Customer Service
Destinations


Segments

Elite Members
Frequent Fliers
Occasional Passengers

Touchpoints

C
22 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
299
12
2,451
1,020
12
746
289
7
2,273
1,319
23
749
ConversionAffiliationSearch EmailMetasearchDisplay Click
Simulation Median Real Values
608,000
626,000
Conversions (000)

Display Imp.
Weighted Absolute Percentage Error (WAPE): 2.93%
TV
Radio
Blog
Forum
Facebook
Twitter






Search
Email
Metasearch
Display
Affiliation
Website





Experiment

23. You Say Eyjafjallajokull, I Say Eyjafjallajökull
How do we minimize the risk of negative word of mouth?
What-if scenarios show the sales sensitivity to changes in the social network
Concentric C™ Recommendation: Create a central info site to share real-time updates
The number of connections between consumers (the structure of the social network) has a significant impact on the
ability of the Airline to react to contingencies. The above charts show how an informational website could have
improved the sales in the months following the volcanic eruption.
23 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
-4% -3%
1% 1%
3%
5%
4%
6%
8%
11%
15%
20%
34%
Social
Online Media
Offline Media
An attribution across social, online, and offline media
shows the potential negative impact of social media.
Attribution to sales Digital cross channel effects
An analysis of the online consumer paths shows low
cross-channel interaction in this case – pointing to the
need to reach customers through a central hub
1.1%
3.0%
10.8%
Sales Change from
Current Baseline

Airline C
Experiment

24. -12
13
31
33
11
41
-18
11
5
24
43
6
26
-6
-18
13
3
74
5
-5
31 32
26
7
5
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Index of Perception Change

Swiping Share and Swapping Equity
What is the trade-off between profit and reputation?
A major credit card company seeks to increase acquisition rates among affluent customers and
understand the potential risks and rewards of different strategies. The goal was to identify the
short-term and long-term trade-offs of marketing and product ideas before they were implemented.

Concentric M™ was used to simulate a variety of marketing plans and product changes – including
Master Brand campaigns, celebrity endorsement, improved CRM systems, and enhanced rewards. The
simulations quantified the trade-off between short-term profitability and long term retention and
reputation.
Alternatives

Credit Card
Market Leader
Competitor
Competitor 2
Competitor 3


Attributes

Customer Experience
Fees and Rates
Rewards
Master Brand Intangible
Status
Segments

Heavy Use

Medium Use

Occasional Use

Touchpoints




Diagnostics reveal that the customer experience is a weakness for the Credit Card
Credit
Card M
TV
Direct Mail
Radio
Online
Sponsorship
Master Brand
Communications



24 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Drive
Efficiency
Test
Customer
Experience
Fees and
Rates
Rewards Master
Brand
Status
Competitor 2 Credit Card Market Leader Competitor Competitor 3
Compared to the competition, the Credit Card had the worst brand perception trend around customer
experience, which was also the only negative trend among the key drivers of choice.

25. Swiping Share and Swapping Equity
What is the trade-off between profit and reputation?
While profitable, a master brand campaign still leaves poor experience
Concentric M™ Recommendation: Improve CRM systems before branding campaigns
25 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Credit
Card M
Drive
Efficiency
A variety of marketing approaches and product investments are considered
Test
$23
$13
$24
$23
$30
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
BaselineImprove
Rewards
Celebrity
Endorsement
Improved
CRM System
Master Brand
Campaign
Profitability (Millions)

After simulating the acquisitions from each strategy and considering each strategy’s cost, the Master Brand
Campaign is projected to be the most profitable over the short-term.
35.45
-4.08
33.84
17.71
8.93
-1.08
-3.58
38.57
46.58
10.19
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
Index of Perception Change

Improved CRM System Master Brand Campaign
Improving the CRM system increases consumer experience, while the Master Brand campaign does not change
perceptions of customer experience. Investing in a master brand campaign, while profitable in the short term, would lead
to lower retention rates due to poor customer service, and lower long-term gains.
Customer
Experience
Fees and
Rates
Rewards Master
Brand
Status

26. Threat Level Down
What is the risk of competitive pricing moves?
The Online Video Retailer was wary of the Online Competitor lowering the price of their service and
running an awareness campaign through a direct to consumers channel. To understand the risk
associated, The Online Video Retailer analyzed what would happen if the competitor were to advertise
a price decrease in increments of 40, 80, 120, and 160 million dollars with a Direct Mail campaign.

The users of Concentric M™ uncovered that the risk is minimal and that premium cable companies are
the ones at risk.
Alternatives

Internet TV Network
Online Competitor
Online Competitor 2
Retail Video Kiosk
Premium Cable
Pay as You Go
Attributes

Price
TV Selection
Movie Selection
Exclusive Content
Simple and Easy
Newest Releases
Personalization
Family Friendly
Segments

All U.S. population
Touchpoints

Digital by type
TV by creative
Radio
Print
Email
OOH
Social (FB/TW)
PR (TV)

A set of what-if scenarios about competitive action uncovered the threat level
Subscribers

0.1%
-0.6% -0.6% -0.7%
-0.9%
-1.7%
-2.2%
-2.6%
14.8%
23.5%
28.5% 26.8%
2012
Investment
Levels
Concentric M™ Insight: Online Competitor’s pricing actions are not a threat
+$40M
Direct
Mail

+$80M
Direct
Mail

+$120M
Direct
Mail

+$160M
Direct
Mail

If the Online Competitor invests in a DM campaign with focus on price, they may gain 28.5% more subscribers
at the expense of Premium Cable. But the Online Video Retailer will experience no significant loss.
M
26 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Assess Risk
Internet
TV
Network

27. Rules of Engagement
How do we make our brand more engaging?
A widely distributed US magazine faced a fork on the road: should they grow readership by capturing
engagement through online/mobile publishing or invest in marketing for their core capability?

With the average American spending 10+ hours a day with information and entertainment, the
magazine was looking to grow their share of people’s attention. The publisher used Concentric to test
whether online/mobile or traditional paths were the way to go. Concentric’s verdict: neither, improve
the content before any further investments.
Alternatives

US Magazine
News Ecosystems
Online Portals
National Print
Platforms
Entertainment
Networks
Attributes

Accessibility
Content
Quality
Integration
Design
Experience
Segments

Male High Consumption
Male Medium Cons.
Male Low Consumption
Female High Cons.
Female Medium Cons.
Female Low Cons.


Touchpoints




A benchmark simulation was fit to the US distribution of media consumption
The simulation replicated the dynamics of the market with 5.5% error
Magazine M
Partner Programs
Trade Promotions
Trade Ads
Sponsorship
Salesforce
Twitter
Facebook
Company Website











Market Average
27 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Innovate
4.9
98.3
232.6
64.6
579.1
4.7
91.6
227.6
57.6
597.8
Publisher
News Ecosystems
Online Portals
National Print Platforms
Entertainment Networks
US Media Consumption (Billions)
Actual Time SpentSimulated Time Spent
5.5%
2.7%
7.4%
2.2%
12.3%
-3.1%
Error

28. Attribution analysis showed WOM and usage hinder brand performance
0%
0%
2%
1%
2%
0%
20%
20%
5%
5%
30%
15%
-7%
-5%
0%
0%
0%
1%
6%
9%
9%
17%
19%
28%
Usage Behavior
WOM Behavior
Events
Twitter
Facebook
Online Behavior
Salesforce
Partner Programs
Sponsorship
Company Website
Trade Ads
Trade Promotions
Contribution to Customer Perceptions Vs. Investment
Contribution Investment
Sensitivity analysis shows that accessibility and content of the magazine will drive
engagement faster than new marketing investments
Concentric M™ Recommendation: Improve the content before new investments
The company website, trade promotions, and sponsorships generate the biggest improvements to brands perceptions
relative to their individual investments, but word-of-mouth and the usage behavior (i.e., experience with the magazine)
ground consumer perceptions to the realities of the magazine experience.
28 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Incremental Hours of Readership
(Hundred Millions)

Additional Investment
Magazine Accessibility
Magazine Content
Company Website
Sponsorships
0%
0%
0%
3%
4%
0%
28%
44%
179%
340%
62%
187%
Effectiveness Index
Rules of Engagement
How do we make our brand more engaging?
M
Magazine
Innovate

29. Launching OTC (Over the Competition)
Which launch strategy reaches our sales target?
A company was planning to launch an OTC version of an existing prescription drug. The goal was a
sales target in the face of heavy competition within the category – from prescription drugs, existing
OTC brands, and private label options.

Concentric M™ was used to simulate the dynamics of the product launch – including the impact of
competitor trade promotions and recommendations from pharmacists and physicians. This recreation
of the entire market provided the client with useful insights when planning the OTC launch.

Alternatives

OTC Launch
Rx Version
Other Rx
OTC Leader
OTC Private Label


Attributes

Relief
Prevention
Price
Speed
New Promise
Segments

Heavy Use
Moderate Use
*Pharmacists
*Physicians

*Non-purchasing
influencer segments
Touchpoints

TV
Print
Digital
FSI
Trade Support
PR
Medical
Website



The simulation was calibrated to sales with a high degree of accuracy
Pharma M



29 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Drive
Efficiency
The Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for annual sales across the competitors is 2.5% in the calibrated
baseline simulation
21.4
76.8
21.0
31.5
22.1
79.4
20.6
31.1
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Rx Version Other Rx OTC Brand LeaderPrivate Label
Sales (Millions)

ActualSimulated
Innovate

30. Launching OTC (Over the Competition)
Which launch strategy reaches our sales target?
The strategies have a trade-off in purchase consideration and perception
Concentric M™ Recommendation: Use trade support first then apply influencer strategy
30 © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Pharma M
Drive
Efficiency
A variety of marketing strategies were tested
The product launch simulations reveal that a strategy focused on targeting physicians and pharmacists (influencer
strategy) will not likely reach the launch target. A mass media based approach satisfies the launch target, but the trade
support strategy provides the strongest launch in terms of sales.
Although Trade Support builds the greatest awareness, it does the least to bring up perceptions of the OTC
alternative. The Influencer Strategy succeeds in boosting perceptions, even though awareness remains low and
the sales target is not met with this approach.
-48.6%
1.6%
31.4%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Influencer StrategyMedia Channels Trade Support
Simulated Units Relative to Target

5%
6%
8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Influencer
Strategy
Media
Channels
Trade Support
Awareness

6.57
6.02
5.92
5.4
5.6
5.8
6
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
Influencer
Strategy
Media
Channels
Trade Support
Perception Index

Innovate

31. © Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Simulate Your Market
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Street,
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USA

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