Military Decision Making Process (Mar 08) 1

1. The Military Decision The Military Decision
Making ProcessMaking Process
March 2008
FM 5-0, June 2005
FM 34-130, 1994

2. Military Decision-Making Process
Receipt of Mission
(Initial Assessment)
Mission Analysis
COA Development
COA Comparison
COA Analysis
(War-game)
Orders Production
COA Approval
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-1 thru 3-3
•A planning model that establishes
procedures for analyzing a mission,
developing, analyzing, and comparing
courses of action against criteria of
success and each other, selecting the
optimum course of action, and producing
a plan or order
•Applies across the spectrum of conflict
and range of military operations
•Helps organize the thought process of
commanders and staff

3. Roles of Commander & Staff
•The commander is in charge of the military decision-making
process and decides what procedures to use in each situation.
•The commander’s personal role is central: he disciplines the
staff to meet the requirement of time, planning horizons,
simplicity, and level of detail
•Commanders do this by visualizing (operational framework),
describing (commanders intent, guidance, and CCIR), and
directing (COA selection) operations
•Staff sections prepare and continuously update estimates and
make sound recommendations to help the commander make
decisions
•The CofS or XO manages, coordinates, and disciplines the
staff’s work and provides quality control
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-4 thru 3-10

4. Commander’s Actions in MDMP
Staff
Estimates
(continual)
•Reinforces initial guidance to
subordinate commanders
•Receives feedback on Warno 1
•Reinforces guidance
•Receives feedback on Warno 2
•Discusses approved COA w/
subordinate commanders
•Receives initial backbrief /
feedback on Warno 3
Commander’s
Estimate
(continual)
RECEIPT OF MISSION
•Issue Cdr’s Initial Guidance
MISSION ANALYSIS
•Approve Restated Mission
•State Commander’s Intent
•Approve Initial CCIR
COA DEVELOPMENT
COA ANALYSIS (War-game)
COA COMPARISON
COA APPROVAL
•Approve COA
•Refined CDRs Intent/CCIR
•HPT List
ORDERS PRODUCTION
•Approve Order
REHEARSAL
EXECUTION & ASSESSMENT
WARNO 1
WARNO 2
WARNO 3

5. Receipt of Mission
•MDMP begins with the receipt or deduction of a new mission by
the commander and staff
•Purpose of this step it to plan the preparation
•Steps in receipt of mission are as follows . . .
–Operations Section issues a warning order staff to alert them
of the pending planning process
–Staff prepares for mission analysis by gathering the tools
–Staff updates estimates
–Commander and staff conduct a quick initial assessment
–Commander issues his initial guidance and operational
timeline
–Headquarters issues a warning order to subordinate and
supporting units
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-12 thru 3-15
MDMP Step 1

6. Prepare for Mission Analysis
•Gather the tools . . .
–Higher headquarters’
order
–Maps of the area of
operations
–Own and higher
headquarters’ SOPs
–Appropriate Field
Manuals
–Existing staff estimates
–Other materials and
products required
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-13

7. Conduct an Initial Assessment
•Determine the time available from mission receipt to mission
execution
•Determine the time needed to plan, prepare for, and execute the
mission for own and subordinate units
•Determine the intelligence preparation of the battlefield
•Additional factors to consider . . .
–Ambient light requirements for planning, rehearsals, and
movement
–The staff’s experience, cohesiveness, and level of rest or
stress
•The critical product of this assessment is an initial allocation of
available time
•Staff estimates already current and those that need updating
•Time required to position critical elements-to include C2 nodes-
for the upcoming operation
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-13

8. Issue Commander’s Initial
Guidance
•How to abbreviate the
MDMP, if required
•Initial time allocation
•Necessary coordination to
perform, including LNOs to
dispatch
•Initial IR or CCIR
•Authorized movement
•Additional tasks the
commander wants the staff
to do
•Collaborative planning times
and locations
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-15

9. Issue a Warning Order
•Issued to subordinate and supporting units
•Uses the five-paragraph format
•Includes as a minimum . . .
–Type of operation (such as offensive or defensive)
–General location of the operation
–Initial time line
–Movement or reconnaissance to initiate
–Any collaborative planning sessions directed by the commander
–Initial IR or CCIR, and ISR tasks

10. Mission Analysis
•Allows the commander to begin
his battlefield visualization
•The result is to define the tactical
problem and beginning the
process of determining feasible
solutions
•The commander conducts his own
mission analysis so that he has a
frame of reference
•Anticipation and prior preparation
are keys to a timely mission
analysis
•A thorough mission analysis is
crucial to planning
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-15
MDMP Step 2

11. Mission Analysis Steps
1.Analyze the higher headquarters' order.
2.Conduct initial IPB.
3.Determine specified, implied & essential
tasks.
4.Review available assets.
5.Determine constraints.
6.Identify critical facts and assumptions.
7.Conduct risk assessment.
8.Determine initial CCIR.
9.Determine initial recon annex.
10.Plan for available time.
11.Write the restated mission.
12.Conduct a mission
analysis briefing.
13.Approve the
restated mission.
14.Develop the initial
commander’s
intent.
15.Issue the
commander’s
guidance.
16.Issue a warning
order.
17.Review facts &
assumptions.
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-16 thru 3-29

12. Analyze the Higher HQ’s Order
•Thoroughly analyze the higher headquarters' order to establish
horizontal and vertical nesting, not just for maneuver, but also for all
combat support and combat service support
•Misinterpretation results in wasted time; seek clarification immediately
•Commander and staff must ensure they completely understand . . .
–Higher and two-higher headquarters’ . . .
•Commander’s intent
•Mission
•Concept of operation, including deception plan
•Time line for mission execution
•Available assets
•Area of Operations
–Missions of adjacent units
–Assigned area of operations
Mission Analysis Step 1
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-16

13. Conduct Initial IPB
•IPB is the systematic, continuous process of analyzing the threat and
the effects of the environment of the unit
•Designed to support the staff estimate and MDMP
•Analytical methodology employed as part of intelligence planning to
reduce uncertainties concerning the enemy, environment, and terrain
for all types of operations
•Staff officers must assist the S-2 in developing IPB products to include
SITTEMPs within their own areas of expertise or functional area
•IPB starts during mission analysis, refined during the rest of the
MDMP, and is continuous throughout preparation and execution of
operations
Mission Analysis Step 2
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-17 thru 3-18

14. A Four Step Process:
1.Define the Operational Environment
3.Describe the Environmental Effects
5.Evaluate the Threat
7.Determine threat Course of Action
Intelligence Preparation of the
Battlefield (IPB)
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-17 thru 3-18

15. Define the Battlefield
Environment
•Identifying for further analysis specific features of the environment
or activities within it, and the physical space where they exist.
•Define the battlefield environment
–Identify significant characteristics of the environment
–Identify the limits of the command’s AO and battle space
–Establish the limits of the AI
–Evaluate existing data bases and identify intelligence gaps
–Collect the material and intelligence required to conduct the
remainder of IPB
FM 34-130, 1994, p. 1-1 & 2-1
IPB Step 1

16. Operational
Environment
Information
Nature and
Stability of
the State
Regional and
Global
Relationship
Economics
Technology
Time
Demographics
Physical
Environment
Military
Capabilities
External
Organizations
National
Will
Operational
Environment
InformationInformation
Nature and
Stability of
the State
Nature and
Stability of
the State
Regional and
Global
Relationship
Regional and
Global
Relationship
EconomicsEconomics
TechnologyTechnology
TimeTime
DemographicsDemographics
Physical
Environment
Physical
Environment
Military
Capabilities
Military
Capabilities
External
Organizations
External
Organizations
National
Will
National
Will
The Operational Environment

17. Step 1 - Define the Operational
Environment
•Road to War
•Area of Operation
•Area of Influence
•Area of Intelligence Responsibility
•Area of Interest
Define the
Battlefield
Environment

18. •Area of Operation
•Area of Influence
•Area of Intelligence
Responsibility
•Area of Interest
Identify the Physical Environment

19. Area of Operations
•Where the Commander is given
authority and responsibility to conduct
military operations
•Assigned by higher based on METT-T
•Defined by boundaries
•Of sufficient size to allow completion
of mission
•Limits freedom of maneuver

20. Area of Interest
•Geographical area from which information and
intelligence are required to execute successful
tactical operations and to plan for future
operations.
–Threats ability to project power
–Threats ability to move forces into AO
–Amount of time needed to accomplish friendly
mission
•That part of the battlefield which contains
significant terrain features or enemy units and
weapon systems that may affect your unit’s
near or future battle

21. Area of Interest
AI
Area of Operations
X
Not within AI
30 km
30 km
30 km
30 km
30 km
30 km
Within AI

22. Area of Interest
•AI should be large enough to answer the
commander’s Information Requirements; yet small
enough to prevent analytical efforts from becoming
unfocused
•Determining the AI depends on the unit mission
and threat capabilities
•Considerations for your AI should be expressed in
terms of distance, based on:
–How your unit attacks
–How the enemy attacks
–What your commander needs to know

23. AI with terrain considerations
Area of Operations
AI
HWY
1
2
3
TRAIL

24. Describe the Battlefield’s Effects
FM 34-130, 1994, p. 1-2 & 2-1
IPB Step 2
•The determination of how the battlefield environment affects both
threat and friendly operations.
•Describes how the terrain, weather, and other battlefield aspects
affect friendly and enemy fires and movement.
Describe the battlefield’s effects [MCOO]
–Analyze the battlefield environment.
•terrain analysis (OAKOC)
•weather analysis
•analysis of other characteristics of the battlefield (e.g.
population status)
–Describe the battlefield’s effects on threat and friendly capabilities
and broad COAs

25. Define the
Battlefield
Environment
Describe the
Battlefield's
Effects
•Terrain Analysis (OACOK)
•Effects of Terrain on Operations
•Civil Considerations (ASCOPE)
•Weather Forecast (and Lunar Data)
•Effects of Weather on Operations
•Overall Assessment
Step 2 - Describe the Environmental
Effects

26. • How will the terrain affect the enemy’s COAs?
• How can friendly forces best exploit opportunities
provided by the terrain?
• How will the terrain &
weather affect friendly
and enemy systems?
Terrain Analysis can be used to maximize friendly
opportunities and minimize enemy exploitation.
Terrain Analysis

27. Terrain Analysis
•Develop engagement areas
•Site battle positions
•Identify enemy and friendly infiltration lanes
•Identify potential avenues of approach
•Position or site weapon systems or other assets
Commanders use terrain to:

28. Terrain Analysis
•Terrain team (Engineers)
•Evaluate terrain through map analysis
•Evaluate terrain through reconnaissance
Affect on military operations
(Friendly and Threat)

29. Terrain Analysis
•Cross-country movement overlay
•Drainage overlay
•Lines of communications (roads,
rail, waterways)
•Military aspects of terrain
(OCOKA / OAKOC)
–Aerial photos
–Line of site (LOS) index

30. Cross Country Mobility
•Percent Slope (hills, mountains)
•Vegetation (trees, forests, swamps)
•Water (streams, lakes, rivers)
•Soil (gravel, sand, clay, peat)
Affected By:

31. Describe the Battlefield Effects
(Military Aspects of Terrain)
•Classify terrain as it pertains to maneuverability
into one of three categories:
–UNRESTRICTED. Free of any restriction to movement.
Units maneuver at doctrinal speeds/distances. Nothing
needs to be done to enhance mobility.
–RESTRICTED. Terrain hinders movement. Units must
adjust doctrinal distances or speeds. Some effort
required to enhance mobility .
–SEVERELY RESTRICTED. Terrain severely hinders
movement. Units cannot travel at doctrinal distances
and speeds.

32. Mobility Classifications
• Unrestricted: 0-30% slope
– Free of restrictions
• Restricted: 31-45% slope
– Hinders movement; little effort needed to enhance mobility
– Use march formation with only minimal delay
• Severely Restricted: >45% slope
– Severely hinders / slows movement unless some effort is
made to enhance mobility
– examples: minefields, cities, heavily wooded areas

33. LOA
(PL Gold)
PL Zinc
PL Silver
XXXX

34. Military Aspects of Terrain
•Obstacles
•Avenues of Approach
•Key Terrain
•Observation and Fields of Fire
•Cover and Concealment

35. LOA
(PL Gold)
PL Zinc
PL Silver
XXXX

36. 70
K
• Outline terrain in Purple
or Blue.

• Identify with a “K” in the
center of the outline.

• Include in the legend.
Key Terrain
 Any locality or area the
seizure, retention, or control of
which affords a marked
advantage to either combatant.
 Must be evaluated by
assessing the impact of its
seizure by either force upon
results of battle.
 Varies with the level of
command.

37. Avenues of Approach
An air or ground route of an attacking force of
dimension, leading to an objective (terrain or
troop)
OBJ
AA 1
AAA 1
•Axis of Advance to the
objective
•Good communications
•Some cover and
concealment
•Little canalization
•Reasonable mobility
Provide:
* Identified for both AIR and GROUND

38. Mobility Corridors
Evaluate & Prioritize
X
OBJ
K
K A
B
C
D
F
X
X
OBJ
AA 1
AA 2

39. LOA
(PL Gold)
PL Zinc
PL Silver
XXXX
II
II
II
II
I
I
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
X
X
II
II
II
AA3C
AA4A
AA4B
AA3B
K1
K3
K7a
K7b
K4
K5
K6
K8
K9
K2

40. LOA
(PL Gold)
PL Zinc
PL Silver
XXXX
AA3C
AA4A
AA4B
AA3B
II
II
II
II
I
I
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
X
X
II
II
II
K1
K3
K7a
K7b
K4
K5
K6
K8
K9
K2

41. Describe the Battlefield Effects
(Military Aspects of Terrain)
•Other aspects of the Battlefield include:
–Logistical Infrastructure (Sources of potable
water, power production facilities, natural
resources, communications system,
transportation system)
–Population Demographics (Education levels,
cultural distinctions, religious beliefs)
–Economic Conditions
–Politics (Local, regional and international,
treaties, ‘unofficial’ politics (gangs, warlords))

42. LINE OF SIGHTLINE OF SIGHT
OP CASEY
OP TONY
HILL 466
OP BONE

43. Describe the Battlefield Effects
•Military aspects of weather

–Visibility
–Winds
–Precipitation
–Cloud Cover
–Temperature and Humidity

44. Visibility
• Provides concealment
• Favors the offense
• Impedes R&S
• Hinders target acquisition
Reduced Visibility:

45. Light Data
A major factor in evaluating visibility
is the amount of available light
Date BMNT SR SS EENT MR MS % Illum
10 0600 0641 1722 1803 2309 111058 3
11 0559 0640 1723 1804 120004 121153 60

46. Wind
• Reduce visibility
• Limit Airborne and Aviation Ops
• Impair Communications
• Affect Smoke and Chemical Ops
Strong Winds:

47. Precipitation
• Maneuver
• Visibility
• Electronic & Optical Systems
• Personnel
Heavy rain or snow can impact:

48. Cloud Cover
• Limits Illumination
• Limits Solar Heating of targets for IR
systems
• Degrades Target Acquisition
• Hinders IR Guided Weapon Systems
• Limits Aviation Ops

49. Temperature and Humidity
• Impact the capabilities of personnel
and equipment
• Reduce aircraft payloads
• Increase dependence on logistical
support
Extremes of either may:

50. Thermal Crossover
•Temperatures of targets and objects on the battlefield at night are important for the
use of thermal sights and forward looking infrared (FLIR) devices.
•A difference in temperature or thermal contrast is required for these devices to "see"
a target.
•Normally, heating and cooling are at a different rate for the target and background.
•Twice a day, in the morning and evening, targets without internal heating come to
relatively the same temperature as the background.
•During thermal crossover the thermal device does not have the capability to "see" the
target.
•Time of thermal crossover may be only a few seconds when the morning sun strikes
a target, or for several minutes on cloudy adverse weather days; this depends on the
threshold temperature's contrast required by the thermal device.
•Tactical decision aids can be used to predict these temperature differences for
planners and estimate length of thermal crossover periods.

51. Temperature Inversion
•In the weather phenomenon known as
thermal inversion, a layer of cooler air is
trapped near the ground by a layer of
warmer air above.
•During the periods of temperature
inversion which often follow BMNT, it is
possible to rapidly cover a very large area
with dense smoke and non-persistent
chemical agents will take longer to
dissipate.

52. Battlefield Effects
Terrain analysis
MCOO
Weather analysis
Weather Chart
Other characteristics
EFFECTS
The “SO WHAT”

53. Visibility/Prec
0600 1200 1800 2400
CEILING: NONE
VISIBILITY: .8 KM
PRECIPITATION: LT
FREEZING RAIN
CEILING: NONE
VISIBILITY: 3 KM
PRECIPITATION: LT
FREEZING RAIN
CEILING: 1200 M
VISIBILITY: 18 KM
PRECIPITATION: LT RAIN
CEILING: 1500 M
VISIBILITY: 20 KM
PRECIPITATION: NONE
1008 46 F59 F59 F46 F
23%
SS:1800MS:0705MR:0142 SR:0712
BMNT:0646 EENT: 1825
Precipitation
Significant Impacts: Good Concealment at night due to low
illumination, rain and fog limit visibility from until 1200
TEMP WIND TEMP WINDTEMP WIND
10
TEMP WIND
04
FOG LIFTING FOG CLOUDY CLOUDY
0000
Wind Direction
RW AVN
SMOKE
Dismounts
RISTA
Wheeled
Tracks
ADA
Chem
Wind Direction
Visibility/Ceiling
Visibility
Visibility
Visibility
Wind DirectionWind Direction
Wind DirectionWind Direction
Wind Direction
Visibility
Visibility
VisibilityVisibility
Visibility
Visibility
PrecipitationPrecipitation
Visibility/Ceiling
PrecipitationPrecipitation
Visibility/Ceiling
Wind Direction
Wind Direction
Visibility/PrecVisibility/Prec
Wind DirectionWind DirectionWind Direction
PrecipitationPrecipitation
ENEMY
US
0600 1200 1800 2400

54. Weather Effects Chart
050600L JUL XX
clouds precipitation wind visibility temperature
friendlyenemy friendlyenemy friendlyenemy friendlyenemy friendlyenemy
ADA
Armor
Arty
Aviation
E-O sys
EN
Lt. INF
EW
Mech
NBC
fog/300m N/A 9.2mph/14.8kmph S 0.2mi/0.4km 71.6F/22.0C
No impact
Moderate impact
Severe impact

55. WEATHER EFFECTS ON FRIENDLY
+Increased detection, recognition, and identification ranges for thermal imaging
systems
+Brigade has thermal overmatch against the OPFOR from ______to_______.
+Low illum (<23%) after 2200 supports aerial insertions
-Winds support enemy use of Chemical Munitions
-Only 12 hours, 59 minutes of useable daylight
-Limited Image Intensifying Night Vision System Usage
-Limited Operations during the hours of darkness
-Big Changes in Barometric pressure may affect gunnery accuracy
-Short days, long nights, combined with low illum levels and late Moon Rise will result in
decreased total engineer effort
-Unfamiliarity with terrain combined with low ilum after 2230 (<23%) will slow
BRT/Scout Infiltration
-High Wind gusts during hours of darkness may affect UAV launch and SIGINT Antenna
Height
-High winds may affect accuracy of M1/M2 ammo at max effective range
-High winds may affect Artillery accuracy due to extended time of flight
WEATHER EFFECTS

56. WEATHER EFFECTS ON ENEMY
+Wind direction supports use of Chemical Munitions
+Low illum (<23%) will conceal enemy troop concentrations
+Low Illum after 2145 (MS) will support recon infiltration
-Lack of TIS will affect enemy movement tempo during hours of
reduced illum
-Low ceilings and reduced vis will affect use of rotary wing AC (SOKOL) until
after 1000 local
-High winds after 2200 may affect enemy ability to conduct air insertion of
infantry (resort to multiple truck insertions)
-Low illum after 2200 reduces target acquisition of shoulder fired SAM system
WEATHER EFFECTS

57. •Areas.
•Structures.
•Capabilities.
•Organizations.
•People.
•Events.
IEDS
SAF
TTPS
Battlefield
Environment/
Effects
AIF
Supporters
Vulnerable
Population
Political
Wing
Religious
Boundaries
Tribal
Boundaries
Economics
Protected
Sites
Local
Authorities
Enemy
Strategies
AIF
Organization
Phases
Information
Operations
ASCOPE

58. Areas/Structures
Buildings
Blue Prints
DC Camps
Street Patterns
Urban Patterns
Criminal Enclaves
Underlying Terrain
Construction Materials
Key Commercial Zones
Subterranean Passages
Political Precincts and Districts
Orgs/People/Events
NGOs
Media
Culture
Loyalties
Authority(s)
Perceptions
Relationships
Labor Unions
Demographics
Groups & Sub-groups
Religious Holidays
Capabilities
Fuel
Fire/Rescue
Electrical Power
Transportation
Communications
Health Services
“To help analyze many civil considerations, commanders and staffs can
provide structure to their assessments by categorizing according to six
characteristics: areas, structures, capabilities, organizations, people,
and events (ASCOPE).”
Terrain Society
Infra-
Structure
FM 3-06, Ch 9
ASCOPE Interpreted

59. Evaluate the Threat
•The determination of threat force capabilities
and the doctrinal principle, tactics, techniques,
and procedure threat forces prefer to use
Evaluate the Threat [Doctrinal Templates]
–Update or create threat models
•convert threat doctrine or pattern of operation to graphics
(doctrinal template)
•describe threat tactics and options
•identify high value targets (HVTs)
–Identify threat capabilities
FM 34-130, 1994, p. 1-2 & 2-1
IPB Step 3

60. •Disposition (2 levels up min)
•Composition (OB) (Line & Block Chart)
•Strength (Enemy Unit Strength – %)
•Enemy Key Systems Capabilities
•Enemy Unit Capabilities by Warfighting
Functions (WFF)
•Enemy System Capabilities by WFF
•Blue Systems vs. Red Systems Capabilities
•Blue Artillery vs. Red Artillery Ranges
•Force Ratios
•Enemy Threat Model
Define the
Battlefield
Environment
Describe the
Battlefield's
Effects
Evaluate
the Threat
Step 3 - Evaluate the Threat

61. Know Your
Threat
Leadership
Ideology
External
Support
Environment/
Geography
Objectives
Target
Selection Organizational/
Operational
Patterns
Phasing/
Timing
Attributes of The Threat