Military Decision Making Process (Mar 08) 3

1. Significant Impacts
Why Event Temp?
•Where & When to Shoot, Jam & Maneuver
•What to Shoot, Jam & Maneuver Against
•Form the Basis for Planning Collection
Strategies
•Synch Intel with Friendly Operations

2. High-Value Target (HVT) /
High-Payoff Target (HPT)
•High-value target (HVT) - assets the the threat commander
requires for the successful completion of a specific COA
•High-payoff target (HPT) - target whose loss to the threat will
contribute to the success of the friendly COA
FM 34-130, 1994, p. Glossary-7

3. 13 Categories of HVTs
•C3
•Fire Support
•Maneuver
•Air Defense
•Engineer
•RISTA
•NBC
•EW
•Bulk Fuels
•Ammunition storage
sites and distribution
points
•Maintenance and
repair units
•Lift
•Lines of
Communication
As you identify key assets, group them into one of the 13
categories used to develop target sets.

4. High Value Targets
T-90S / BMP-3K / AMX-10 HOT-3 / PZF3T600Maneuver3
2S5 / 2S19 / 2S23 / W87Fire Support
BRM-3K / BMP-3M / MOTORCYCLE / SPF /
DISMOUNTED OP
ISR1
SystemCategoryPhase
T-90S / BMP-3K / PZF3T600Maneuver
BRM-3K / BMP-3M / MOTORCYCLE / SPF /
DISMOUNTED OP
ISR2
GMZ / UMZ / BAT-2 / MDK / IMR / PMZEngineer
2S5 / 2S19 / 2S23 / W87Fire Support
UMZ / GMZ / IMR / BAT / PMZEngineer
GMZ / UMZ / BAT-2 / MDK / IMR / PMZEngineer
2S5 / 2S19 / 2S23 / W87Fire Support

5. Event Matrix
Dismounted
Squad NAI 10
EN Recon NAI 2COA 4
CO Sized
element Vic EA
Smash South
Dismounted
Squad NAI 9
COA 3
CO sized
element Vic EA
Smash Center
Dismounted
Squad NAI 8
3 Armored
Vehicles NAI 5
EN Recon NAI 3COA 2
CO sized
element Vic EA
Smash North
Dismounted
Squad NAI 7
3 Armored
vehicles NAI 4
EN Recon NAI 3COA 1
H + 120H + 90H + 60H + 30

6. Briefing the Initial IPB - Technique
•Define the battlefield environment. (Initial operations graphics.)
–Identify significant characteristics of the environment.
–Identify the area of operations and battle space.
–Define the limits of the area of interest.
•Describe the battlefield’s effects. (MCOO & blowups, as appropriate.)
–Describe the battlefield's effect on threat and friendly capabilities and
broad courses of action (terrain, weather, other).
•Evaluate the threat. (Charts & sketches, as appropriate.)
–Describe the threat model (doctrinal templates, tactics, HVTs).
–Describe capabilities (composition, disposition, strength; capabilities and
vulnerabilities; recent activities).
•Determine threat courses of action. (SITTEMPs & Event Template.)
–Identify likely objectives and desired end state.
–Describe likely threat courses of action.
–Identify initial collection requirements (NAIs).
FM 34-130, 1994, pp. 2-1 thru 2-2

7. Determine Specified, Implied,
and Essential Tasks
•Specified tasks - those specifically assigned to a unit by its higher
headquarters.
•Implied tasks - those that must be performed to accomplish a
specified task, but which are not stated in the higher headquarters’
order.
•Essential task(s) - must be executed to accomplish the mission
(task and purpose).
Mission Analysis Step 3
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-18 thru 3-19

8. Review Available Assets
•Examine additions to and deletions from the current task
organization, support relationships, and status of all units.
•Determine if assets are sufficient to perform all specified and implied
tasks.
•Identify additional resources needed for mission success.
Mission Analysis Step 4
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-19

9. Determine Constraints
•Identify and understand constraints.
•Constraints take the form of requirements to do something or a
prohibition on action.
•Constraints restrict the freedom of action a subordinate
commander has for planning.
Mission Analysis Step 5
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-19

10. Identify Critical Facts and
Assumptions
•Facts are statements of known data concerning the situation
including enemy and friendly dispositions, available troops, unit
strengths, and material readiness.
•Assumptions are suppositions about the current or future situation
that are assumed to be true in the absence of facts.
–They take the place of necessary, but unavailable facts.
–An assumption is appropriate if it meets the tests of validity and
necessity.
•Validity means the assumption is likely to be true.
•Necessity is whether or not the assumption is essential for
planning.
Mission Analysis Step 6
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-20

11. Conduct Risk Assessment
•When assessing the risk of hazards in operations, the commander and staff
must look at two kinds of risk, tactical risk and accident risk.
•Tactical risk is risk associated with hazards that exist due to the presence of
the enemy on the battlefield.
•Accident risk includes all operational risk considerations other than tactical
risk, and can include activities associated with hazards concerning friendly
personnel, equipment readiness, and environmental conditions.
•Risk management steps:
–Identify hazards.
–Assess hazards.
–Develop controls, determine residual risk, and make risk decision.
–Implement controls.
–Supervise and evaluate.
Mission Analysis Step 7
FM 5-0, 2005, pp. 3-20 thru 3-21

12. Risk Management Worksheet
•Identify significant tactical and accident hazards.
•Assess hazards in terms of initial probability, effect, and risk level.
•Develop controls, determine residual risk, and make risk decision.
Hazard
(Tactical &
Accident)
Initial
Prob-
ability
Initial
Effect
Initial
Risk
Level
Controls
(Counter-
measures)
Residual
Prob-
ability
Residual
Effect
Residual
Risk
Level
Probability: frequent, likely, occasional, remote, unlikely.
Effect: catastrophic, critical, marginal, negligible.
Risk Level: extremely high, high, medium, low.
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-21

13. Determine Initial CCIR and EEFI
•CCIR identify information needed by the commander to
support his battlefield visualization and to make critical
decisions.
•The commander alone decides what information is critical,
based on his experience, the mission, and the higher’s
intent.
•CCIR are situation dependant and specified by the
commander for each operation.
•CCIR include PIR and FFIR. Though EEFI is not CCIR, it is
a commander’s priority.
Mission Analysis Step 8
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-21 thru 3-22

14. Elements of CCIR
•Priority intelligence requirement (PIR).
–Information about the enemy.
–How I see the enemy.*
•Friendly force information requirements (FFIR).
–Information about his or adjacent unit
capabilities.
–How I see myself.*
•Essential elements of friendly information (EEFI).
- Friendly capabilities or assets which, when
location is known by the enemy, provides him
an advantage if he interdicts that asset
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-8

15. PIR
•An intelligence requirement associated with
a decision that will affect the overall
success of the commander’s mission.
•PIR are prioritized among themselves and
may change in priority over the course of
the operation’s conduct.
•Can be information about the enemy or
terrain.
•Effective PIR . . .
–Provide intelligence required to support a single
decision.
–Ask only one question.
–Focus on a specific fact, event or activity.
–Are time sensitive.
•Examples.
–Will the enemy defend on the forward slope of
OBJ SAW?
–Will the enemy counterattack use AA 2?

16. NAI 2
Decision Support Template
BN
EA
EA
Z
BP A1
BP B1
BP C1
BP A2
BP B2
BP C2
H+1
H+1
H+1.5
H+1.5
H+2
H+2
3
4
N
A
I
1
NAI 5
6
4
5
3
1
TAI 2
MPCOA
COA3
COA2
•ID WHERE A DECISION MUST BE
MADETO INITIATE A SPECIFIC
ACTIVITY/EVENT
•DOES NOT DICTATE DECISIONS;
INDICATES WHEN/WHERE THE
NEED FOR A DECISION IS LIKELY
TO OCCUR
•BASED ON CCIR
INCLUDES
•OPNs GRAPHICS
•DECISION POINTS
•TAIs & TPLs
•ENEMY OBJ/M.C.
DP1 ENGAGE 2nd ECH W/CAS IN TAI 1
DP2 EMPLOY FASCAM AT TAI 2
DP3 REPOSITION B&C Cos TO ALT BPs
DP4 REPOSITION A CO TO BP A2
DP5 DESTROY AASLT WITH RESERVE
DP6 EMPLOY RESERVE IN BN EA
TAI
1
RES
2

17. Determine Initial ISR Plan
•Identify gaps in the
intelligence available and
determine an initial
reconnaissance and
surveillance plan to
acquire information based
on available
reconnaissance assets.
•Update CCIR and taskings
to reconnaissance as they
collect information and
other intelligence sources
fill in gaps.
Mission Analysis Step 9
•Initial ISR annex should contain,
as a minimum:
–AO for reconnaissance.
–Mission statement.
–Task organization.
–Reconnaissance objective.
–PIR and IR.
–LD/LC time.
–Initial NAIs.
–Routes to AO and passage of
lines instructions.
–Communications and logistics
support.
–Fire support measures.
–Medical evacuation.
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-22 thru 3-23

18. Update the Operational Timeline
•Refine the initial plan for the use of available time.
•Compare the time needed to accomplish essential tasks to the higher
headquarters’ time line to ensure mission accomplishment is possible
in the allotted time.
•Compare the time line to the enemy time line developed during the
IPB.
•Determine window of opportunity for exploitation or times when the
unit will be at risk from enemy activity.
•Specify when and where for briefings and rehearsals.
•Maximize available planning time by sending additional warning
orders as detailed planning develops.
Mission Analysis Step 10
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-23

19. Write the Restated Mission
•Prepare a restated mission for the
unit based on the mission analysis.
•The restated mission will include
on-order missions; be-prepared
missions will be in the concept of
operation.
•Consists of Who, What, Where,
When, Why.
•Along with Commander’s Intent,
provides the primary focus for
subordinate actions during
planning, preparation, execution,
and assessing.
Mission Analysis Step 11
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-23 thru 3-26

20. Conduct a Mission Analysis Brief
Mission Analysis Step 12
•Given to both the
commander and staff, this
helps to commander and
staff develop a shared
vision of the requirements
for the upcoming
operation.
•Focuses on relevant
conclusions reached and
staff members only
present relevant
information the
commander needs to
develop a situational
understanding.
• Mission Analysis Brief Outline
•Mission and intent of HQs two levels up.
•Mission, intent, concept of operation, and
deception plan/objective of the headquarters
one level up.
•Review initial planning guidance.
•Initial IPB products.
•Specified, implied, and essential tasks.
•Constraints .
•Forces available.
•Initial Risk Assessment.
•Recommended initial CCIR and EEFI.
•Recommended time line.
•Recommended collaborative planning
sessions.
•Recommended restated mission.
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-26

21. Approve the Restated Mission
•Immediately after the mission analysis briefing, the commander
approves a restated mission.
•Can be the staff’s recommended restated mission, a modified
version of the staff’s recommendation, or one that the
commander has developed himself.
•Once approved, the restated mission becomes the unit’s
mission.
Mission Analysis Step 13
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-27

22. Develop the Initial Cdr’s Intent
•Used to focus planning and gives the
commander a means of indirect control of
subordinate elements during execution.
•Commander’s intent is a clear concise
statement of what the force must do to
succeed with respect to the enemy and the
terrain and to the desired end state.
•Intent provides the link between the mission
and the concept of operation by stating key
tasks that, along with the mission, are the
basis for subordinates to exercise initiative
when unanticipated opportunities arise or
when the original concept of operation no
longer applies.
Mission Analysis Step 14
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-5,6 & 3-27

23. Issue the Commander’s Guidance
•Focuses the staff on COA development, analysis, and comparison.
•Expresses the commander’s visualization, identifies the decisive and shaping operations.
•As a minimum, the commander’s guidance should address . . .
–Specific enemy and friendly COAs to consider or not to consider, and the priority for
addressing them.
–Decisive operation, potential decisive point(s), and potentail key decisions.
–CCIR.
–ISR guidance.
–Risk guidance.
–Deception guidance.
–Fire support guidance.
–Mobility and countermobility guidance.
–Security measures to be implemented.
–Additional specific priorities for BOS elements.
–Operational Time line.
–Type of order to issue and type of rehearsals to conduct.
–Collaborative planning sessions to be conducted.
–Any other information the commander wants the staff to consider.
Mission Analysis Step 15
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-27 thru 3-28

24. Issue a Warning Order
•Immediately after the commander gives his guidance, the staff send
subordinate and supporting units a warning order.
•As a minimum, the warning order contains . . .
–Restated mission.
–Commander’s intent.
–Task Organization changes, attachments and detachments.
–Unit’s AO.
–CCIR and EEFI.
–Risk guidance.
–Reconnaissance to be initiated by subordinate units.
–Initial movement instructions.
–Security measures.
–Deception guidance.
–Mobility and countermobility guidance.
–Specific priorities.
–Guidance on collaborative events and rehearsals.
–Updated operational timeline.
Mission Analysis Step 16
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-28 thru 3-29

25. Review Facts and Assumptions
•During the rest of the decision-making process, the
commander and staff periodically review all available facts
and assumptions.
•New facts may alter requirements and analysis of the
mission.
•Assumptions may have become facts or may have
become invalid.
•Whenever facts or assumptions change, the commander
and staff must assess the impact of these changes on the
plan and make the necessary adjustments.
Mission Analysis Step 17
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-29

26. Mission Analysis Output
•Updated staff estimates and products.
•Initial IPB
–Enemy SITTEMPs
–MCOO
–HVT List
•Mission analysis briefing.
•Restated mission.
•Initial Commander’s Intent.
•Commander’s Planning Guidance.
•Updated operational time line.
•Warning Order (WARNO #2).
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-16

27. COA Development
•The commander’s direct involvement in COA development can
greatly aid in producing comprehensive and flexible COAs
within the available time.
•COAs must meet the criteria of . . .
–Suitable - accomplishes the mission and complies with the
commander’s guidance.
–Feasible - the unit has the capability to accomplish the
mission in terms of available time, space, and resources.
–Acceptable - advantage gained by executing the COA
justifies the cost in resources, especially casualties.
–Distinguishable - each COA must differ significantly from
others.
–Completeness.
MDMP Step 3
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-29 thru 3-30

28. COA Development Steps
1. Analyze relative combat power
2. Generate options
3. Array forces
4.Develop concept of operations
5.Assign responsibilities
6. Prepare COA statements and
sketches
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-30 thru 3-35

29. Relative Combat Power
Analysis (RCPA)
•Combat power is the total means of destructive and/or
disruptive force that a military unit/formation can apply
against the opponent at a given time (FM 1-02)
•Planners compare friendly strengths against enemy
weaknesses, and vice versa, for each element of combat
power.
•From these comparisons, they may deduce particular
vulnerabilities for each force that may be exploitable or
may need to be protected.
•These comparisons may provide planners insights into
effective force employment and potential decision points.
COA Development Step 1
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-30 thru 3-31

30. Relative Combat Power Analysis
(RCPA)
•Combat power is the total means of destructive and/or
disruptive force that a military unit/formation can apply
against the opponent at a given time (FM 1-02)
•Planners compare friendly strengths against enemy
weaknesses, and vice versa, for each element of combat
power.
•From these comparisons, they may deduce particular
vulnerabilities for each force that may be exploitable or
may need to be protected.
•These comparisons may provide planners insights into
effective force employment and potential decision points.
COA Development Step 1
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-30 thru 3-31

31. Analyze Relative Combat Power
(1-3)
•Estimate of both objective and subjective
factors.
•Compare the most significant strengths and
weakness of each force in terms of combat
power:
•Friendly capabilities.
•Types of operations possible from both enemy/friendly
perspectives.
•How/where will enemy be vulnerable.
•How/where friendly forces are vulnerable.
•Additional resources required to execute the mission.
•How to allocate existing resources.
FM 5-0, 2005, P. 3-30

32. •Do not develop and recommend COAs based
solely on mathematical force ratios
•Planners combine analysis of force ratios
(comparable companies and platoons) to
intangible aspects of combat power (strengths/
weaknesses).
By comparing friendly strengths against enemy
weaknesses, planners deduce vulnerabilities of
each force that may be exploitable or may need
to be protected.
Analyze Relative Combat Power
(2-3)
FM 5-0, 2005, P. 3-31

33. •Determine what type of operation is feasible by
comparing the force ratio with the historical
minimum planning ratios for the contemplated
combat mission.
If the relative combat power of the force
produces the effects of the historical minimum-
planning ratio then the mission is feasible.
Analyze Relative Combat Power
(3-3)
FM 5-0, 2005, P. 3-32

34. Technique for Analyzing
Intangibles

35. Generate Options
•Each COA should be developed starting at a
potential decisive operation identified in the
commander’s planning guidance (Purpose).
•Determine shaping operations (Purpose).
•Determine sustaining operations (Purpose).
•Determine essential tasks for each decisive,
shaping, and sustaining operation.
COA Development Step 2
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-33 thru 3-34

36. COA Development (Cont’d)
•Array Forces
–Determine the forces necessary to accomplish the mission and to
provide a basis for the scheme of maneuver and then the
planners determine the relative combat power required to
accomplish each task, starting with the decisive operation and
continuing through all shaping operations..
•Develop Concept of Operations
–Describes how arrayed forces will accomplish the mission within
the commander’s intent. Planners select control measures
(graphics) to control subordinate units during the operation.
•Assign Responsibilities
–Task organization takes into account the entire battlefield
organization.
–Generally, a headquarters controls at least two subordinate
maneuver units, but not more than five.
COA Development Steps 3, 4, & 5
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-34 thru 3-37

37. Prepare COA Statements &
Sketches
•The COA Statement must clearly portray how the unit will accomplish the
mission and explains the concept of operations.
•The sketch provides a picture of the maneuver aspect of the COA.
•Together they cover the who (task organization), What (task), Where, When,
and Why (purpose) of subordinate units, and significant risk.
COA Development Step 6
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-37 thru 3-41

38. COA Statement & Sketch
Mission Statement
Intent
Control Measures
Prominent Terrain Features
Legend (if required)
Task Organization
COA Statement (technique)
–Forms of maneuver or defensive techniques
–Decisive point describing the desired result, & why it is decisive
–Sequential statement of the purposes & tasks of decisive & shaping
operations
–Concept of Critical Warfighting Functions
–Commander’s desired endstate

39. COA Briefing
• An updated IPB
•Possible enemy COAs (event templates)
• The unit mission statement
• The commander’s and higher commanders’ intent
• COA statements and sketches
• The rationale for each COA, including—
–Considerations that might affect enemy COAs
–Critical events for each COA
–Deductions resulting from the relative combat power analysis
–The reason units are arrayed as shown on the sketch
–The reason the staff used the selected control measures
–Updated facts and assumptions
• Recommended evaluation criteria
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-41

40. Course of Action Analysis
•Allows the staff to synchronize the WFF for each COA and identify
the COA that best accomplishes the mission.
•Helps the commander and staff . . .
–Determine how to maximize combat power against the enemy
while protecting the friendly forces and minimizing collateral
damage
–Further develop a visualization of the battle
–Anticipate Battlefield events
–Determine conditions and resources required for success
–Determine when and where to apply the force’s capabilities
–Identify coordination requirements to produce synchronized
results
–Determine the most flexible course of action
–Focus IPB on the enemy strengths and weaknesses, and the
desired endstate
MDMP Step 4
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-42

41. War-Gaming Process
•COA Analysis is a DISCIPLINED process.
•The process considers friendly dispositions, strengths, and
weaknesses; enemy assets and probable COAs; and characteristics
of the AO.
•War gaming tests a COA or improves a developed COA.
•Takes a COA and begins to develop a detailed plan.
•Determines the strengths and weaknesses of each COA.
•Follows an action-reaction-counteraction cycle:
–Actions - events initiated by the side with the initiative.
–Reactions - the other side’s actions in response.
–Counteractions - responses to the reactions.
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-42 thru 3-50

42. War-Game Rules
•Remain objective, not allowing personality or their sensing
of “what the commander wants” to influence them.
•Accurately record advantages and disadvantages of each
COA as they become evident.
•Continually assess feasibility, acceptability, and suitability
of the COA.
•Avoid drawing premature conclusions and gathering facts
to support such conclusions.
•Avoid comparing one COA with another during the war
game.
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-43

43. War-Gaming Steps
1. Gather the tools.
2. List all friendly forces.
3. List assumptions.
4. List known critical events and decision
points.
5. Determine evaluation criteria.
6. Select the war-game technique.
7. Select a method to record and assess the
results.
8. War game the battle and assess the results.
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-45

44. Gather the Tools
•War-game on maps, sand tables, or other tools
that accurately reflect the nature of the terrain.
•Tools required include, but are not limited to . . .
–Current staff estimates.
–Event template.
–Recording method.
–Completed COAs, to include maneuver and
ISR graphics.
–Means to post enemy and friendly unit
symbols.
–Map of AO.
War-Game Step 1
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-44 thru 3-46

45. List All Friendly Forces
•Consider all units that can be committed to the operation,
paying special attention to support relationships and
constrains.
•The friendly force list remains constant for all COAs the
staff analyzes.
War-Game Step 2
List Assumptions
¨Review previous assumptions for continued validity and
necessity.
War-Game Step 3
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-46

46. List Known Critical Events and
Decision Points
•Critical events and decision points must be listed for each enemy
COA war-gamed against.
•Critical events are those that directly influence mission
accomplishment. They include major events from the unit’s
current position through mission accomplishment.
•Decision point is an event, area, or point in the battle space where
and when the friendly commander will make a critical decision.
•A decision point will be associated with CCIR that describes what
information the commander must have to make the anticipated
decision.
War-Game Step 4
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-46

47. H HOURH + 20 H + 40 H + 120
EA SMASH
TAI #1
TAI #2
NAI #1
1
H + 60

48. Determine Evaluation Criteria
•Evaluation criteria are those factors the staff uses to
measure the relative effectiveness and efficiency of one
COA relative to other COAs following the war-game.
•Evaluation criteria change from mission to mission.
•The criteria should look not only at what will create
success, but also at what will cause failure.
•Examples of evaluation criteria include . . .
–Doctrinal fundamentals for the kind of operations being
conducted.
–Commander’s guidance and intent.
–Level of tactical risk
–Mission accomplishment at a reasonable cost.
–Principles of War.
War-Game Step 5
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-46 thru 3-47

49. Select the War-Game Method
•There are three recommended techniques.
–The belt technique divides the battlefield into belts
running the width of the area of operations.
–The avenue-in-depth technique focuses on one avenue
of approach at a time, beginning with the main effort.
–The box technique is a detailed analysis of a critical
area.
•Each one considers the area of interest and all enemy
forces affecting the outcome of the operations.
•The methods can be used separately or in combination.
War-Game Step 6
FM 5-0, 2005, pp. 3-47 thru 3-48

50. Select a Method to Record and
Display Results
•Recording the war game’s results provides a record to:
–Build task organizations.
–Synchronize activities.
–Develop decision support templates.
–Confirm and refine event templates.
–Prepare plans or orders.
–Compare COAs.
•Two methods are use to portray the action:
–Synchronization matrix.
–Sketch note.
War-Game Step 7
FM 5-0, 2005, pp. 3-48 thru 3-50

51. Synchronization Matrix Method
Event
Time
(Anticipated)
Weather /
Visibiltiy
Enemy
Decision Pt
Intel / R&S
M
N
V
R
Security
Main-
Battle
Reserve
Mob/CM/Sur
Fire Spt
Air Def
NBC
CSS
CMD & CTL
•Synchronization matrix method allows
the staff to synchronize the COA across
time and space in relation to the enemy
COA.
•An advantage of this method is that it
can be readily translated into a graphic
decision-making product.
•The matrix is developed around
selected functional areas or major
subordinate commands of the unit.
•Other operations, functions, and units
that are to be integrated can be
incorporated into the matrix.
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-48

52. Sketch Note Method
•Sketch note method uses brief notes concerning critical locations or
tasks.
•Notes reference specific locations on the map or relate to general
considerations covering broad areas.
•The commander and staff note locations on the map and on a separate
wargame worksheet.
•Staff members use sequence numbers to reference the notes to the
corresponding location on the map or overlay.
FM 101-5-1, MAY 97, p 5-22
CITICAL EVENT:
Seq
Num
ActionRe-
action
Counter
-action
AssetsTimeDecision
Point
CCIRControl
Measures
Re-
marks
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-49 thru 3-50

53. War-Game the Battle and
Assess the Results
•During war-gaming, the commander and staff . . .
–Analyze each selected event by identifying the tasks the force must
accomplish one echelon down, using assets two echelons down
–Try to foresee the dynamics of a battle’s action, reaction, and
counteraction
–Identify the COA’s strengths and weaknesses
–Look at many areas in detail
–Conduct risk management ( to include the threat from WMD)
–Identifies and synchronizes CS and CSS assets required to support
the scheme of maneuver
–Evaluate the need for branches to the plan
•The commander can modify the COA based on METT-TC
War-Game Step 8
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-50 thru 3-52

54. War-Game Brief (Optional)
•Higher headquarters, mission, intent, concept, and deception plan
•Updated IPB (terrain, weather, enemy)
•Enemy COAs war-gamed
•Friendly COAs war-gamed
•Assumptions
•War-gaming technique used
•For each COA war-gamed . . .
–Critical events that were war-gamed
–Possible enemy actions and reactions
–Modifications to the COA
–Strengths and weaknesses
–Results of the war game
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-53

55. COA Comparison
•The COA comparison starts with all staff members analyzing
and evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of each COA
from their perspectives
•The staff compares feasible courses of action to identify the
one COA that has the highest probability of success against the
most likely enemy COA and the most dangerous enemy COA
–Pose the minimum risk to the force and mission
accomplishment
–Place the force in the best posture for future operations
–Provide the most flexibility to meet unexpected threats and
opportunities
–Provide maximum latitude for initiative by subordinates
MDMP Step 5
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-53

56. Decision Matrix
•Evaluation criteria should be those identified during course
of action analysis
•Weighting - based on relative importance
•Comparison methods- high/low, +/-, numerical value
Criteria Weight COA 1 COA 2
Time to Blocking
Position
3 2 (6) 1 (3)
Risk of CATK to
Right Flank
1 1 (1) 2 (2)
Size/Type of
Reserve
2 1 (2) 2 (4)
Casualty
Evacuation
1 1 (1) 2 (2)
Total (10) (11)
NOTE: HIGHER NUMBERS ARE BETTER
Recommend
COA 2
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-55

57. Commander’s Decision Briefing
•After completing its analysis and comparison, the staff
identifies its preferred COA and makes a recommendation
•The decision-briefing format includes:
–Intent of higher commanders one and two level’s up
–Current IPB
–Restated mission
–Status of the force and its components
–COAs considered, including:
•Assumptions used in planning
•Results of staff estimates
•Advantages and disadvantages (including risk) of each
COA
–Recommended COA
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-55 thru 3-56

58. COA Approval
•The commander decides on the COA he believes to be the most
advantageous
•Once the commander has selected a COA he issues the final
planning guidance:
- A refined commanders intent and new CCIR to support
execution
- Additional guidance on priorities for WFF activities, orders
preparation, rehearsal, and preparation
- Priorities for resources needed to preserve freedom of action
and assure continuous sustainment
- Any risk commanders are willing to accept
•The staff issues a warning order with essential information so
that subordinates can refine their plans
MDMP Step 6
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-57

59. Warning Order 3
•The WARNO contains the information subordinate units need to
refine their plans. It confirms guidance issued in person or by
VTC and expand on details not covered by the commander
personally. The WARNO issued after COA approval normally
contains:
–Mission
–Commanders intent
–Updated CCIR and EEFI
–Concept of operations
–AO
–Principal tasks assigned to subordinate units
–Preparation and rehearsal instructions not included in SOP
–Final time line for the operations
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-57

60. Orders Production
•Based on the commander’s decision and final guidance, the
staff refines the COA and completes the plan and prepares to
issue the order.
•Finally, the commander reviews and approves orders before the
staff reproduces and briefs.
•Order and Annex formats are in Annex G, FM 5-0.
MDMP Step 7
FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-57

61. Questions ?Questions ?