OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx

How will new technology fields affect economic trade?

1. Prepare for the Future by Stress Testing Scenarios May 2024 Trade Wars Weighing the Risks by Chief Investment Officer, Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™ and Sr. Portfolio Manager Nick Codola, CFA, CAIA Featuring J.H. Whitney & Co.’s CEO and President John O’Conner and Allen Parker

2. Trade War Economic Risks S+P 500 5830 +10% GDP 4% +100bps 10-Year Treasury 3.75 -70bps S+P 500 5500 +4% GDP +2.5% -50bps 10-Year Treasury 4.35 -10bps S+P 500 3710 -30% GDP -1% -400bps 10-Year Treasury 4.00 -45bps Enduring Peace GOOD BASELINE BAD Orderly ‘New Normal’ Trade Wars Globalization Free Markets reign, no trade restrictions, companies prioritize low prices and US Imports Deflation U.S. orderly de-couples from Antagonist Countries Markets broadly dictated by free markets, not tariffs / Protectionism Economic Trade Wars Capital flows and product flows restrictions. Companies barred from operations, inflation rises

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