OAT_RI_Ep21 WeighingTheRisks_June24_CommodityInflation.pptx

How will commodity inflation influence the election and supply chains?

1. Prepare for the Future by Stress Testing Scenarios June 2024 Commodity Inflation Weighing the Risks by Chief Investment Officer, Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™ and Sr. Portfolio Manager Nick Codola, CFA, CAIA Featuring the CIO of USCF Kevin Baum

2. Commodity Inflation S+P 500 4135 -25% GSCI (TR) 4510 +20% 10-Year Treasury 4.80 +50bps S+P 500 5850 +6% GSCI (TR) 3850 +2.5% 10-Year Treasury 4.30 Flat S+P 500 6070 +10% GSCI (TR) 3200 -15% 10-Year Treasury 3.75 -55bps High Inflation GOOD BASELINE BAD Same Old 2010s Inflation Entrenched Inflation Election-related Fiscal Policy causes inflation to rise ala 1974 but less severe. CPI rises to 5% Business as usual: Service-related inflation continues to fall, and supply chains become more efficient and resilient. CPI falls to 3% Copacetic Inflation Restored efficient and resilient supply chains reinstates 2010s era inflation trends and market breadth widens

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