OECD Green Talks LIVE - Policies for a plastic pollution-free future by 2040- October 2024.pdf

The flexibility and versatility of plastics is difficult to match. However, escalating levels of plastics production and use, particularly in short-lived applications, have led to increasing waste levels and pollution of this all-pervasive material in recent decades. Without more ambitious policies, the proliferation of plastic production, use and waste will further expand by 70% by 2040. Additionally, 19% of plastic waste will not be properly managed, with grave impacts on the environment and human health.

How can policymakers turn the ever-rising tide on plastic pollution? What strategies can eliminate plastic leakage to the environment and at what cost?

Join us at our next OECD Green Talks LIVE on 2 October 2024 from 14:00 to 15:15 CEST to discuss these questions during the launch of a new OECD report Policy Scenarios for Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040. Following an introduction by Jo Tyndall, Director of the OECD Environment Directorate, OECD Environment Senior Economist Rob Dellink and Junior Policy Analyst Elena Buzzi will present key findings from the report. They will be joined by country representatives to discuss the implications of these findings in the context of efforts to establish a global plastics treaty. The webinar will be moderated by Shardul Agrawala, Head of the Environment and Economy Integration Division at the OECD Environment Directorate.

During the talk we will delve into the potential environmental benefits and economic consequences of five levels of international policy ambition towards ending plastic pollution by 2040. The panel of experts will provide insights and highlight key policy actions to facilitate the transition to more sustainable plastics economies.

1. Policies for a plastic
pollution-free future by 2040
2 October 2024
Elena Buzzi and Rob Dellink
Environment and Economy Integration Division
OECD Environmental Directorate
Join the conversation
on Twitter
#GreenTalks
#Plastics2040
@OECD_ENV

2. •435 Mt of plastics use in 2020
•Plastic consumption and waste
levels double every ≈20 years
•More than 150 Mt of plastics
in rivers and oceans
Some key numbers:

3. We are at a critical moment…
Negotiations for an international legally-binding
instrument on plastic pollution – 2022-2024
UNEA 5.2 Resolution 5/14
March 2022

4. OECD policy scenario modelling
February 2022 June 2022 October 2024
Negotiations for an international legally-binding
instrument on plastic pollution – 2022-2024

5. 1)What are the environmental
benefits of varying levels of
international policy ambition?
2)What are the related economic
implications?
3)What challenges need to be
overcome?
Policy scenario modelling

6. Litter
management
All policy scenarios consider 10 core policy instruments
I. Curb production
and demand
II. Design for
circularity
III. Enhance recycling
IV. Close
leakage pathways
Plastic
taxes
Plastic
packaging
taxes
Single-use
plastic bans
Eco-design
criteria
Substitution
Recycled
content targets
Waste
sorting &
recycling
Extended
Producer
Responsibility
Waste
management

7. Policy scenarios chart alternative paths
policy
stringency
lifecycle
scope
geographical
coverage
With variation along three dimensions:

8. Policy scenarios chart alternative paths
With variation along three dimensions:
policy
stringency
lifecycle
scope
geographical
coverage

9. Policy scenarios chart alternative paths
With variation along three dimensions:
policy
stringency
lifecycle
scope
geographical
coverage

10. Policy scenarios chart alternative paths
policy
stringency
lifecycle
scope
geographical
coverage
With variation along three dimensions:
Advanced economies Rest of World Global

11. Key results:
Environmental impacts
11

12. Business-as-usual sees substantial increases in plastic flows
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020 2030 2040
Million tonnes (Mt)
Global trends
Production and
use: 736 Mt
Waste: 617 Mt
Mismanaged
waste: 119 Mt
0 10 20 30
China
Sub-Sah. Africa
Rest of Asia-Pacific
India
MENA
Non-OECD LAC
Eurasia
OECD
Mt
Mismanaged waste by region
2020
2040
Baseline scenario

13. …and worsening environmental impacts
Baseline scenario
Plastics-related GHG emissions

14. Baseline scenario results
14
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Production and use
(striped areas represent secondary)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Waste
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Leakage

15. Global Downstream
High stringency
16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Production and use
(striped areas represent secondary)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Waste
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Leakage
Design for
circularity
Enhance
recycling
Close
leakage
pathways
Curb
production
and demand
Global

16. Advanced economies
Lifecycle High stringency
18
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Production and use
(striped areas represent secondary)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Waste
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Leakage
Design for
circularity
Enhance
recycling
Close
leakage
pathways
Curb
production
and demand
Design for
circularity
Enhance
recycling
Close
leakage
pathways
Curb
production
and demand
Advanced economies Rest of World

17. Global Lifecycle
Low stringency
20Partial ambition scenarios do not end leakage to the environment
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Production and use
(striped areas represent secondary)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Waste
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Leakage
Global
Design for
circularity
Enhance
recycling
Close
leakage
pathways
Curb
production
and demand

18. Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
22
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Production and use
(striped areas represent secondary)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Leakage
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Waste
Design for
circularity
Enhance
recycling
Close
leakage
pathways
Curb
production
and demand
Design for
circularity
Enhance
recycling
Close
leakage
pathways
Curb
production
and demand
Advanced economies Rest of World

19. Global Lifecycle High stringency
[Global Ambition]
24Global ambition requires stringent policies, along the lifecycle, globally
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Production and use
(striped areas represent secondary)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Waste
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2020
Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Adv. econ. Lifecycle
High stringency
Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Global Lifecycle
Mixed stringency
Global Lifecycle High stringency
2040
Million tonnes
Leakage
Global
Design for
circularity
Enhance
recycling
Close
leakage
pathways
Curb
production
and demand

20. Global stringent policies along the lifecycle
can nearly end leakage
25
Global Lifecycle High stringency [Global Ambition] scenario, change compared to Baseline
-96%
compared to
Baseline
Only plastics not
captured by waste
management
systems continue
to leak
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Leakage
10%
15%
26%
44%

21. Global Ambition reduces primary plastic production0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Million tonnes
Global plastics use and average recycling rate
PrimarySecondaryRecycling Rate (Right Axis)
Global Lifecycle High stringency [Global Ambition] scenario0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Million tonnes
Global plastics use and average recycling rate
Primary Secondary Recycling Rate (Right Axis)
Reducing primary
production is essential
for reducing production-
related GHG emissions

22. Key results:
Economic implications
27

23. -2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
Canada
USA
OECD LAC
OECD EU
Australia and NZ
Rest of OECD
Japan and Korea
Rest of LAC
Non-OECD EU
Eurasia
MENA
Sub-Sah. Africa
China
India
Rest of Asia-Pacific
Total
OECD NON OECD WORLD
Macroeconomic (GDP) costs of the policy package Macroeconomic costs are modest but unevenly
distributed
Global Lifecycle High stringency [Global Ambition] scenario by 2040-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
Canada
USA
OECD LAC
OECD EU
Australia and NZ
Rest of OECD
Japan and Korea
Rest of LAC
Non-OECD EU
Eurasia
MENA
Sub-Sah. Africa
China
India
Rest of Asia-Pacific
Total
OECD NON OECD WORLD
Macroeconomic (GDP) costs of the policy package -2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
Canada
USA
OECD LAC
OECD EU
Australia and NZ
Rest of OECD
Japan and Korea
Rest of LAC
Non-OECD EU
Eurasia
MENA
Sub-Sah. Africa
China
India
Rest of Asia-Pacific
Total
OECD NON OECD WORLD
Macroeconomic (GDP) costs of the policy package

24. Baseline
Global Downstream
High stringency
Global Lifecycle
High stringency
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500
Change in plastic leakage compared to Baseline
Waste management costs (USD bln)
Significant increases in expenditure are needed,
but global ambition drastically improves outcomes
Leakage reduction in 2040 versus
cumulative waste management costs
for 2020-2040
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
OECD Non-OECD OECD Non-OECD
Global Downstream
High stringency
Global Lifecycle
High stringency
USD
bln
Curb and eco-design Enhance Recycling
Close leakage pathways Total
Policy-induced waste management costs for 2020-
2040

25. Priorities ahead
30

26. Major challenges need to be overcome
➢Improved eco-design and large-scale recycling require innovations and harmonisation of criteria
➢Lack of well-functioning waste collection and management systems and need for rapid
improvements
➢Significant recycling losses and fragmented, underdeveloped scrap markets
There are significant technical, economic and governance barriers
➢Mobilise diverse sources of public and private finance
➢Enhance financing for developing countries
➢Strengthen technical co-operation, capacity building and technology transfer
Significant financial resources and international co-operation are essential
➢Target interventions to reduce microplastics pollution and chemicals of concern
➢Clean up leaked plastics, especially in pollution hotspots
➢Implement dedicated climate mitigation policies to reduce GHG emissions
Additional interventions will be required to mitigate other aspects of plastic pollution

27. Key takeaways
1.Business-as-usual is unsustainable
2.Globally implemented, stringent policies along the
lifecycle deliver the largest environmental benefits
a.Curb production and demand
b.Design for circularity
c.Enhance recycling
d.Close leakage pathways – eliminate mismanaged waste
3.Global ambition comes at modest costs overall
a.Costs are unevenly distributed across countries
b.Focus only on downstream is less cost-effective
4.Plastics pollution is eliminated only when technical
barriers are overcome and international co-operation
is strengthened

28. 33
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