PDZ CDR MRV Net Zero Summit 19_06_2024 vPRINT.pptx

Reviewing the linkages between what we measure in carbon removal projects, and how this is accounted for by countries in pursuit of their Paris goals.

1. MRV for CDR Methodologies, Inventories & Accounting Dr. Paul Zakkour 3 rd International Conference on Negative CO 2 Emissions, Oxford, UK 19 June 2024

2. Measurement (or Monitoring), Reporting and Verification Ability to reliably, transparently, comprehensively and accurately monitor, measure, report and verify GHG emissions and removals at an organisational, programme, project, product or value chain level. MRV is critical to understanding and tracking the effectiveness of actions to mitigate climate change and for valuing such services. (IEAGHG, forthcoming) Attention in the CDR world today is mostly here 👉 [ project-based certification methodologies /protocols from independent crediting programmes & A6.4] But national GHG inventory systems and accounting by countries is also a vital part of CDR MRV What is MRV? 2

3. Project MRV | measuring net removals by activities 3 tCO 2 time Emissions Removals Measured removals Baseline emissions Activity emissions Net annual removals [emission reductions] = tCO 2 removals – tCO 2 emissions (avoided) + tCO 2 emissions (activity) + tCO 2 (leakage) Net removals tCO 2 year -1 Leakage emissions Guiding principles for project-based MRV: Real Measurable Additional Not double counted No leakage Permanent

4. Project MRV | measuring net removals by activities 4 tCO 2 time Emissions Removals Measured removals Baseline emissions Avoided emissions Activity emissions Net annual removals [emission reductions] = tCO 2 removals – tCO 2 emissions (avoided) + tCO 2 emissions (activity) + tCO 2 (leakage) Additionality Net removals tCO 2 year -1 Leakage emissions Adverse selection risk Guiding principles for project-based MRV: Real Measurable Additional Not double counted No leakage Permanent Carbon reversal risk

5. Project MRV | measuring net removals by activities 5 Net annual removals [emission reductions] = tCO 2 removals – tCO 2 emissions (avoided) + tCO 2 emissions (activity) + tCO 2 (leakage) Guiding principles for project-based MRV: Real Measurable Additional Not double counted No leakage Permanent Carbon reversal risk tCO 2 Emissions Removals Measured removals Baseline removals Avoided emissions Activity emissions Adverse selection risk Additionality Leakage emissions Net removals tCO 2 year -1 time

6. Project MRV | coverage of current ICP certification protocols 6 >50 methodologies for nature-based CDR (forestation, forest management, soil organic carbon, agroforestry, peatlands etc) ~20 methodologies for novel CDR, pretty much all developed in the last 3 years  CDR method Meths# ICP/Developer Dates of publication BECCS 7 Puro.earth ; ACR;* Verra/VCS (CCS+);* Global Carbon Council;* Isometric; Drax/Stockholm Exergi ; Gold Standard Jan-2021  Feb-2024 (ACR v1.0 dated Apr-2015) DACS + geostorage 5 Puro.earth ; ACR;* Verra/VCS (CCS+);* Global Carbon Council;* Isometric Jan-2021  May-2023 DACS + mineral storage 1 CarbFix /DNV/Climeworks Jun-2022 Enhanced weathering** 3 Puro.earth **; Verra/VCS**; Isometric Mar-2023  Apr-2024 Biochar 2 Puro.earth ; Verra/VCS Jan-2022  Jul-2023 Bio-oil storage 2 Isometric; Carbon Direct Aug-2022  Dec-2023 Biomass burial 2 Puro.earth ; Isometric Nov-2023  Dec-2023 Biomass sinking 1 Social Carbon May-2023 Ocean alkalinity enhancement (from coastal outfalls) 1 Isometric May-2024 Source: IEAGHG (forthcoming) authors analysis. Notes: Some DACS and BECCS methodologies are combined in a single protocol. *Includes fossil CCS. **Idea note, proposal, under preparation or under consultation.

7. National MRV | longer evolution, including accounting 7 1990 2000 2010 2020 A.4 + A.12 “All Parties publish and periodically update national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks… using comparable methodologies ” Kyoto Protocol CDM A/R Modalities & Procedures Revised 1996 GLs Marrakech Accords CDM CCS Modalities & Procedures 2006 GLs 2019 GLs Refinement Bali Roadmap + Action Plan Paris Agreement Enhanced Transparency Framework Article 6 RMPs

8. National MRV | longer evolution, including accounting 8 1990 2000 2010 2020 A.4 + A.12 “All Parties publish and periodically update national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks… using comparable methodologies ” Kyoto Protocol CDM A/R Modalities & Procedures Revised 1996 GLs 2000 GPGs 2013 Wetlands Marrakech Accords CDM CCS Modalities & Procedures 2006 GLs 2005 SRCCS 2003 GPGs LULUCF 2019 GLs Refinement 2013 GPG from KP Bali Roadmap + Action Plan Paris Agreement 1995 GLs Enhanced Transparency Framework Article 6 RMPs 2024 CDR Expert Meting…

9. 1 Net zero the point where measured emissions equal measured removals (e.g. at a national economy level) Paris Agreement compliance system is based on the national GHG inventory (NGHGI) of countries relative to NDC pledges: NGHGI compilation guided by IPCC methods NGHGI prepared following “TACCC” principles Transparency, Accuracy, Completeness,, Comparability, Consistency Rules set out in the Paris Agreement, Article 13 (and the Enhanced Transparency Framework) National MRV | measuring net zero compliance by countries 9 Emissions Removals 1 time tCO 2

10. National MRV | coverage of current IPCC Guidelines 10 MRV guidance organised by sector (Energy; Industry; AFOLU; Waste) Nature-based CDR largely covered by Volume 4 (AFOLU)  CDR method Coverage Applicable sections / comments Publication BECCS  Volume 2:2 (Stationary combustion) Volume 3 (Various industrial sources) Volume 2:5 (CO 2 Transport and Storage) 2006 GLs DACS + geostorage ~ Volume 2:5 (CO 2 Transport and Storage) 2006 GLs DACS + mineral storage  [explicitly excluded in Vol 2:5] 2006 GLs Enhanced weathering ~ /  Volume 4:2.3.3.1 (advises Tier 3 approaches for soil inorganic carbon fluxes) [Freshwater and oceanic GHG fluxes not measured and reported] 2006 GLs Biochar ~ Volume 1 (new guidance for mineral soils) Volume 4 (Biochar amendments to soil + Appendix 4) 2019 Refinement Bio-oil storage  [Parties could propose own methodology (probably Tier 3 only)] n/a Biomass burial  [Parties could propose own methodology (probably Tier 3 only)] n/a Biomass sinking  [Freshwater GHG fluxes not measured and reported] n/a Ocean alkalinity enhancement  [Oceanic GHG fluxes not measured and reported] n/a

11. MRV & Accounting | connecting activities to NGHGIs 11 Allocation : are emissions, removals and net removals from projects reconcilable with the NGHGI? Visibility : is the measured CO 2 drawdown by projects equivalent to reported CDR in the NGHGI? PROJECT LEVEL NATIONAL LEVEL Separate MRV systems, but need a link to maintain environmental integrity (esp. with corresponding adjustments)

12. MRV & Accounting | connecting activities to NGHGIs 12 Allocation : are emissions, removals and net removals from projects reconcilable with the NGHGI? Visibility : is the measured CO 2 drawdown by projects equivalent to reported CDR in the NGHGI? PROJECT LEVEL NATIONAL LEVEL Separate MRV systems, but need a link to maintain environmental integrity (esp. with corresponding adjustments)

13. MRV & Accounting | connecting activities to NGHGIs 13 Allocation : are emissions, removals and net removals from projects reconcilable with the NGHGI? Visibility : is the measured CO 2 drawdown by projects equivalent to reported CDR in the NGHGI? PROJECT LEVEL NATIONAL LEVEL Separate MRV systems, but need a link to maintain environmental integrity (esp. with corresponding adjustments)

14. MRV & Accounting | connecting activities to NGHGIs 14 Allocation : are emissions, removals and net removals from projects reconcilable with the NGHGI? Visibility : is the measured CO 2 drawdown by projects equivalent to reported CDR in the NGHGI? PROJECT LEVEL NATIONAL LEVEL Separate MRV systems, but need a link to maintain environmental integrity (esp. with corresponding adjustments)

15. MRV & Accounting | connecting activities to NGHGIs 15 Allocation : are emissions, removals and net removals from projects reconcilable with the NGHGI? Visibility : is the measured CO 2 drawdown by projects equivalent to reported CDR in the NGHGI? PROJECT LEVEL NATIONAL LEVEL Separate MRV systems, but need a link to maintain environmental integrity (esp. with corresponding adjustments) CAUTION “HOT AIR” WARNING “RISK OF POLICY FAILURE”

16. 1 16 MRV & Accounting | reconciling visibility PROJECT LEVEL NATIONAL LEVEL 1  Can certified removals at the project level be incorporated into the host’s NGHGI? (‘internal adjustments’)  Can NGHGI methods and default factors be effectively incorporated into project level methods?

17. x 17 MRV & Accounting | reconciling visibility PROJECT LEVEL NATIONAL LEVEL y  Or s hould the market be separated (and claims regulated)… …with the hope that some removals accrue in the national GHG account?

18. Paul Zakkour, Director 18 This and much more in new IEAGHG report coming soon… E: [email protected] T: [phone] / [phone] W: www.carbon-counts.com