Post-Coup Conflict Assessment in Myanmar.pdf

AA

1. Post-Coup Conflict
Assessment in
Myanmar
Min Zaw Oo
MIPS
December 14, 2023

2. Table of Content
•Brief Methodology
•Historical Trends
•Post-Coup ConflictTrend
•Civilian Casualties
•Operation 1027
•Outlooks
•Questions/Comments

3. Brief Methodology

4. Data Sources
•Media Reports (Facebook)
•Pro-regime media (Telegram)
•Field Monitors/Journalists
•Sources from Conflict Actors
•Local Humanitarian Workers

5. Factors Considered for Analysis
•Armed Clash, IED, Air Strike, Drone Strike, Artillery Strike
•Motives and Objectives of Actors in Each Event
•Actions, Tactics, and Counter Actions
•Strength and Capabilities
•Conditions Influencing Actors’ Action

6. Sample Township Risk Metrix (High Risk)
•5 Armed Clashes and Above Per
Month
•Presence of Troops from Both
Sides
•5 Clashes or Above In Last Two
Months
•Presence of Troops from Both
Sides
•Mobilization of Troops from
Either Side
•Pending Offensive

7. Sample IDP Camp Risk Metrix (High Risk)
•Shells Landing inside or near the Compound
•Injury or Death
•Search and Arrest in the Camp
•Reports about EAOs or Resistance Fighters Allegedly Disguised
as IDPs
•Reports about Arrested Armed Individuals Who Resided in the
Camp
•IDP camp on the Route Where One Side is Moving in or out from
Military Operation

8. Historical Trends

9. Historical Trend of Armed Clashes
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2019 2020 2021
IEDs and Armed Clashes in 2018, 2019, 2020, & 2021
IEDArmed Clashes
17%
-1%
866%
120%
-23%
147%

10. The Comparison of Townships Experiencing Armed Clashes
Six Months Before and After the coup
6 Months Before the coup 6 Months After the coup
62 122 (51% up)

11. Armed Clashes with the KNU (Escalation)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Number of Clashes
Number of Clashes with KNU in 2020 and 2021
Coup

12. Armed Clashes with the CNF
(Escalation)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Armed Clashes with the CNF in 2020 and 2021
Picture source: Irrawaddy
Coup

13. Armed Clashes with the AA in Rakhine State (De-escalation)
CoupMeewa Fighting
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Armed Clashes with the AA from 2019 to 2021

14. Armed Clashes with the MNDAA
(Escalation)
Coup
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Armed Clashes with the MNDAA from 2015 to 2021

15. Post-Coup Conflict Trends

16. Armed Clashes and IEDs
(Jan 2021 to Oct 2023)
4847
102
192
276
166160
195
240
334322
453
582
419424
440
405
362
383
424417
366
326
298
320
277
351
331
289
242
369
397
334
374
5 4
29
77
250
185
107110
288
404
230
264276285282
315
228
184
227
203
183
160
180172170
127
146
112105
80
123
958895
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Number of Armed Clashes Number of Landmine/IED Incidents

17. Air Strikes and Drone Attack
(Jan 2021 to Oct 2023)
00000000000
21
5
11
18
21
13
22
20
39
34
31
55
48
45
77
5655
53
77
99
59
98
00
16
18
27
5
3
0
43
12
19
00
9
22
26
6
44
47
30
39
29
39
34
32
46
70
5252
4141
45
61
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Number of Drone AttacksNumber of Air Attacks

18. Affected State and
Regions
(Last Three Months)
0
21
6
19
0
135
1
3
14
15
59
21
23
26
28
4
19
3
2
33
3
32
0
95
2
0
14
28
33
11
11
27
19
15
9
0
1
25
3
92
0
124
0
1
9
19
34
11
6
18
9
10
11
1
0 50 100 150
Yangon
Tanintharyi
Shan (South)
Shan (North)
Shan (East)
Sagaing
Rakhine
Nay Pyi Taw
Mon
Mandalay
Magway
Kayin
Kayah
Kachin
Chin
Bago (West)
Bago (East)
Ayeyarwady
Armed Clashes in Oct 2023Armed Clashes in Sep 2023
Armed Clashes in Aug 2023

19. Civilian Casualties

20. Civilian Casualties (20-Month Studies)
•Total Civilian Death 6,337
•Wounded (TCMS) 2,621
Number of Civilian Fatalities Recorded in TCMS 3,229
Number of Civilian Fatalities Recorded in AAPP Excluding Non-Civilians
and Overlaps with TCMS
1,497
Number of Civilian Fatalities Recorded by the USDP Excluding Non-
Civilians and Overlaps with TCMS
1,611
Total Reported Civilians Killed from Feb 1, 2021, to Sep 30, 2022 6,337

21. Trends of Civilian Death
(The First 20 Months After the Coup)

22. Types of
Violence
Causing
Civilian
Deaths
Types of Violence
Number of Civilians
Killed
Politically Motivated
Murder (TCMS)
2164
Protestors Killed (AAPP) 884
Armed Clash (TCMS)* 371
Other Violence (TCMS) 258
IED Incidents (TCMS) 256
Artillery Strike Only
(TCMS) 146
Air Strike Only (TCMS) 34

23. Sex and Age
Aggregation
of Civilian
Deaths
GENDERAAPPUSDPTCMS
Male 1,3141,31519244,553
Female 138296443877
Unknown 45 862907
Total 1,4971,6113,2296,337
AGE AAPPUSDPTCMS
Unknown 341N/A 341
Adult 1,053N/A30654,118
Child 103N/A164267

24. Reported
Perpetrators
TCMSAAPPUSDP
Sub-
Total
Tatmadaw and
Affiliates 15061497 3003
PDF/LDF Anti-Coup
Resistance and
EAOs 541 1611 2152
Civilians (not
affiliated with
opposition or
regime) 12 12
Unspecified actors1170 1170
Total 6337

25. Operation 1027

26. Brotherhood Alliance’s Offensive
(Up to November 10)
Towns
Town (Attack: Yes, Fall: No)
Town (Attack: Yes, Fall: Yes)
Forward Posts Fallen
Forward Posts
Battalions
Tatmadaw MOC or Division HQs
Major Road
River
State/Region Boundary
CHINA

27. Nationwide
Armed Clash, IED,
Air Strike, and
Drone Attack in
October 2023

28. Affected
Highways

29. Impact on
Project
Townships
State Township Security Risk at
Township-level
Security Risk at
IDP Camp-level
Central RakhineKyauktaw High High
Minbya High High
Mrauk-U High High
Pauktaw High High
Ponnagyun High Medium
RathedaungHigh High
Sittwe Medium Medium
Northern RakhineButhidaungHigh High
Maungdaw High High
Kachin Bhamo High High
Chipwi Medium Medium
Hpakant High High
Mansi Medium Medium
Mohnyin High High
Myitkina Medium Medium
Puta-O Medium Low
Waingmaw High High
Shan North Kyaukme High High
Kutkai High High
Lashio High High
Namkhan High High
Namtu High High

30. Questions/Comments