Progress against Vision 2020 prersentation - March 2020.pdf

VISION FOR HEALTH

1. Vision 2020
In 2008 a new vision for the Canterbury Health System was
developed and has driven strategy for the last 12 years
So how did we do?

2. Engagement

5. A connected
system
Centred
around people
That aims not to
waste their time
We started with a vision

6. We projected future demand

7. So what has happened?

8. Population 2006/07
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
00-0405-0910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+
Population
2006/07 population
2006/07: 479,000
StatsNZ

9. Population 2006/07, 2020/21
projection
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
00-0405-0910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+
Population
2006/07 population2020/21 projected pop 2008
2006/07: 479,000
2020/21P: 532,000
StatsNZ

10. Population 2006/07, 2020/21
projection, 2018/19 actual
2006/07: 479,000
2020/21P: 532,000
2018/19A: 578,000StatsNZ
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
00-0405-0910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+
Population
2006/07 population2020/21 projected pop 20082018/19 population

11. Ministry of Health –Projected
Population changes 2009-2026
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
Auckland
Counties Manukau
Northland
Waitemata
Bay of Plenty
Lakes
Tairawhiti
Taranaki
Waikato
Capital & Coast
Hawke's Bay
Hutt Valley MidCentral
Wairarapa
Whanganui Canterbury
Nelson Marlborough
Otago
South Canterbury
Southland
West Coast
Northern
Region
Midland
Region
District Health Board
Population
Grow th
Central
Region
Southern
Region
Other
415,180
32%
244,585
84,715 63,665 96,205
23%
9%
26%
3%
19%
0%-1%
12%
15%
4%
3%
8%
0% -6%
15%
10%
4%
-1%
2%
-1%
Canterbury
Now: +78,000
2026: +116,000 (not 75,000)
Now: +138,000 2026: +162,000
Now: +365,000 2026: +534,000
New Zealand 2009 projection for 2026 +660,000 Now Change from 2009 to 2026 +1,014,000

12. Discharges (age>15)
Major Diagnosis Code Discharges Actual (06/07) and Projected (2021)
for Canterbury DHB, age > 15
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Age band
Number of discharges
2006/07
2021
2006/07374345494786581051904000391641793810432148815158609156665495
2021 383548985323583145883642398250814847648575539016798371839604
15 to
19
20 to
24
25 to
29
30 to
34
35 to
39
40 to
44
45 to
49
50 to
54
55 to
59
60 to
64
65 to
69
70 to
74
75 to
79
80 to
84
85+

13. Discharges (>15 years) 2006/07
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+
Discharges (age>15) 2006/07, projected 2021, actual 2018/19
2006/07 discharge
2006/07: 71,586

14. Discharges (>15 years) 2006/07,
2020/21 projection
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+
Discharges (age>15) 2006/07, projected 2021, actual 2018/19
2006/07 dischargeProjected FY2021 discharge 2008
2006/07: 71,586
2020/21P: 89,851

15. Discharges (>15 years) 2006/07,
2020/21 projection, 2018/19 actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+
Discharges (age>15) 2006/07, projected 2021, actual 2018/19
2006/07 dischargeProjected FY2021 discharge 20082018/19 discharge
2006/07: 71,586
2020/21P: 89,851
2018/19A: 105,502

16. As a rate, how did we do?
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+
Discharges (age>15) expected vs actual
Better than projected

17. Bed days – the next analysis
•Admissions are lower than expected for older, higher than expected
for younger
•Younger people have shorter length of stay (especially Emergency
Observation)
•What is the impact on bed days?
•This is next analysis, but…

18. Bed days over time
250000
270000
290000
310000
330000
350000
370000
390000
410000
Bed days (>15 years, midnight)
On average, our over 15
population used:
1.00 bed days in 2008/09
0.70 bed days in 2018/19

19. Bed occupied
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
Occupied beds (>15 years)
Occupied beds have decreased
despite population growth
Between 2009/10 and
2018/19:
Our population has grown
12.1%
Our occupied beds have fallen
by 1.8%

20. Aged Residential Care –bed days
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2006/2007 2009/2010 2012/2013 2015/2016 2018/2019
Older Persons Services - Residential Volumes Trends
Dementia Hospital CarePsychogeriatricRest Home

21. Rate of Aged Residential Care
utilisation
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
ARC bed days per population over 75
2006/07 rate of bed days2018/19 rate of bed days
Between 2006/07 and 2018/19 :
•The over 75 population increased
by 18.6%
•Dementia bed day rates
increased by 30.5%
•Hospital bed day rates increased
by 4.1%
•Psychogeriatric bed day rates
increased by 11.9%
•Rest Home bed day rates
decreased by 41.5%
•Total bed day rates decreased by
15.3%

22. In 2020 we have made great
progress toward our vision
Our population has grown faster than expected
But they are less likely to be in a hospital bed
This means
Our population is being supported to manage their
own health
Our primary and community services are managing
people better in their own homes and communities
Our hospital services are more efficient
People are spending less time in aged residential
care