jac66107_ch05_110-129.indd 124 12/20/16 02:12 PM
124 Section 1 Strategy, Products, and Capacity
The following are some additional facts about the alternatives and current situation:
1. The company has a 75 percent chance of surviving the next two years.
2. Leasing the new space for two years at the current location in Chicago would cost $750,000
per year.
3. Moving the entire operation to a Midwest town would cost $1 million. Leasing space
would run only $500,000 per year.
4. Moving to a new building in Chicago would cost $200,000, and leasing the new building’s
space would cost $650,000 per year.
5. The company can cancel the lease at any time.
6. The company will build its own building in five years, if it survives.
7. Assume all other costs and revenues are the same no matter where the company is located.
What should E-Education do?
Solution
Step 1: Construct a decision tree that considers all of E-Education’s alternatives. The fol-
lowing shows the tree that has decision points (with the square nodes) followed by chance
occurrences (round nodes). In the case of the first decision point, if the company survives,
two additional decision points need consideration.
E-Education
Stay in Chicago
Lease current space for
two years
Survive (.75)
Survive (.75)
Lease new space
in Chicago
Stay in Chicago
Lease new space
Move to Midwest
town
Move to Midwest
$3,650,000
$3,450,000
$3,112,500
$2,962,500
Fail (.25)
Fail (.25)
$4,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,500,000
Survive (.75)
$3,500,000
$3,125,000
Fail (.25)
$2,000,000
Step 2: Calculate the values of each alternative as follows.
Alternative Calculation Value
Stay in Chicago, lease current space for two years,
survive, lease new building in Chicago
(750,000) × 2 + 200,000 +
(650,000) × 3 =
$3,650,000
Stay in Chicago, lease current space for two years,
survive, move to Midwest
(750,000) × 2 + 1,000,000 +
(500,000) × 3 =
$4,000,000
Stay in Chicago, lease current space for two years, fail (750,000) × 2 = $1,500,000
Stay in Chicago, lease new building in Chicago, survive200,000 + (650,000) × 5 = $3,450,000
Stay in Chicago, lease new building in Chicago, fail200,000 + (650,000) × 2 = $1,500,000
Move to Midwest, survive 1,000,000 + (500,000) × 5 = $3,500,000
Move to Midwest, fail 1,000,000 + (500,000) × 2 = $2,000,000
Working from our rightmost alternatives, the first two alternatives end in decision nodes. If we
fail after the first two years, represented by the third alternative, the cost is only $1,500,000.
The expected value of the first option of staying in Chicago and leasing space for the first two
years is .75 × 3,650,000 + .25 × 1,500,000 = $3,112,500.
Final PDF to printer