Regional and International Threat 2 National Security.ppt

Regional and International Threat To National Security,its Importance & Remedial Measures

1. Regional and International Threat To
National Security
Its Importance & Remedial Measures
Mahmud Naser Jhony
addl.SP /IP1

2. Looking Beyond Conventional Lens
Terror AttackForeign Armed Aggression
Refugee Inflow Border Skirmishes
Organized Trans-national Crime
Cyber Attack
Mostly our perception usually limited to the conventional, hard,
and instantly susceptible notions of National Security Threat

3. National Security Through Broader Lens
National Sovereignty losing rigidity
Threats element are geographically more expanded
Interdependence is ever higher
Supply Chain is more complex
Ripple Effects are more instant
Economic integration is unprecedented
Globalized World

4. Less Focus on Non-traditional Security Threats
Environmental DegradationCultural Invasion Poverty
Political Polarization
More Focus on Traditional Security Threats

5. Nature of National Security Threats
Geographic Pattern
Demographic Diversity
Military/Economic Interest

6. National
Security
abilityofa
citizens,
Threats to
National
Security
the
nation's
security
Types of
Threats to
National
Security
Regional and International Threat To National Security
Conceptual Components

7. Scope of Threats to National Security
International Regional National

8. Scope of Threats to National Security
International
International threat elements
Energy Security Threats
Geopolitical Rivalry
Sanctions
Economic Recession
Terrorism
Cyber Crime
Climate Change
Arm Aggression
Pandemic

9. Scope of Threats to National Security
Regional
Regional threat elements
Presence of Hostile State
Extreme Nationalism
State-Sanctioned Policy Fallout
Trans-national Drug Trafficking
Human Trafficking
Regional Geopolitical Rivalry
Trans-national Criminal Networks
Pathogenic Outbreak
Trans-boundary River

10. Scope of Threats to National Security
National
National threat elements
Political Instability
Political Polarization
Presence of Hostile Forces
Natural Disasters
Policy Failures
Environmental Degradation
Domestic Terrorism
Rohingya Refugee

11. International Security Threats

12. Scope of Threats to National Security (International)
Energy Security
“Shale Revolution” & Oil Price Downward The War in Ukraine & Oil Price Upward
Positive Fallout
Subsidy Diversion
Increasing Welfare spending
Industrialization
Increasing Forex Reserve
Less Energy Production Cost
Overall Economic Development
Political Stability
Negative Fallout
Increasing Subsidy
Decreasing Welfare Spending
Deindustrialization
Energy Crunch: (Electricity generation and
transport sectors in the country depend on 34
percent and 90 percent of imported liquid fuels
respectively)
Debt and Decreasing Forex Reserve
Economic Slump and Political Instability

13. Scope of Threats to National Security (International)
Food Security
(Imports)
Figure : Food Price Index Figure : Supply Source

14. Scope of Threats to National Security (International)
People’s Republic of China
The US-led West
Russian Federation
0203
01
Geopolitical Rivalry & Its Impacts

15. Scope of Threats to National Security (International)
A Limited War in Europe and Its Fallout
Around 78 million and 141 million people around
the world could be pushed into extreme poverty.
Inflationary Rise in decades from an average of
5.5% to more than 9%
Forex Reserve Reduced from $46bn to less than
$30bn
Lower Export Earning
Higher Import cost (36 percent year-on-year
increase in 2022)
Increased Geopolitical Pressure to Pick sides(UN
Voting and RupporPower Project Conundrum)
People’s Republic of China
The US-led West
Russian Federation
0203
01
Geopolitical Rivalry & Its Impacts

16. Scope of Threats to National Security (International)
A Wider War in Asia and Its Fallout
Unprecedented Geopolitical Pressure To Pick Sides (US
increasing efforts to endorse the IPS)
More Military activities in & around the Bay of Bengal (General
Security of Military Information Agreement and the Acquisition
Cross-Servicing Agreement)
Potentiality of Wider War over Taiwan & Total Disruption of
Global Supply Chain.
Increased Geopolitical Pressure to Pick sides between China & US
(our export interest in the US and Import interest in China)
About 70% of imported raw materials come from China. The
United States is Bangladesh's largest single-country export
destinationand the third-largest source of imports for Bangladesh.
People’s Republic of China
The US-led West
Russian Federation
0203
01
Geopolitical Rivalry & Its Impacts

17. Geo-Political Reality

18. Scope of Threats to National Security (International)
Sanctions & Its Impact
Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant
Complexities in implementing the project
The project is expected to commence commercial operation from
17 February 2024. Russia is giving Tk 910 billion (91,000 crores)
loans in the Tk 1.14 trillion project.
Payment complexities due to Russia having been cut off from the
SWIFT system.
Fear of Secondary Sanctions (A Russian ship carrying a
consignment of products intended for the RooppurNuclear Power
Plant was denied entry to Bangladesh's Mongla port).
Affecting the launching of the Bangabandhu-2 satellite .

19. Scope of Threats to National Security (International)
International Terrorism & Its Impact
Policy Impact Ideological Impact Physical/HardImpact
Expansion and Regionalization Ideological Indoctrination Offensive Implementation

20. Scope of Threats to National Security (International)
Cyber Attacks
According to the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM) study conducted in 2022, nearly 52% of banks are at
grave risk of cyber attacks.

21. 0.56%
Bangladesh’s Production of
global emissions
Bangladesh’s
Contribution
56%
Percentage of population
living high climate exposure
areas
Population Exposure
53 million
Total number of people
living in Extremely high
exposure area.
Extreme Exposure
105.6
million
In 1973:8.3 million hectares
and in 2009 105.6 million
hectares
Salinization of
Agricultural lands
Numbers Speak
11%
50 cm rise in sea level by
2050 will cause total loss of
land
Loss of Land
$3.72bn
Bangladesh’s economic
Losses from 2000 to 2019
Economic Losses
700,000
Over the last decade, average .7m
Bangladeshis displaced each year
by natural disasters
Displacement
25%
In July 2021, over 25% of
Bangladesh experienced
floods.
Flood Experience
Scope of Threats to National Security(International)
Climate Change

22. Regional Security Threats

23. Scope of Threats to National Security (Regional)
Presence of a Volatile State
Presence of Inherent Hostility
Geographical Threat Dimension
Presence of Geopolitical Hostility
Proximity to Terrorism Hotspot

24. Scope of Threats to National Security (Regional)
Geo-strategical Threat Dimension
Presence of a Volatile State
Risk Factors
Unstable Government with Constant Internal
Political Instability.
Less space for Diplomatic Maneuver
Less prone to succumb to external pressure.
Proximity to National Border.
Inclination to Hard Power than Soft Power.

25. Scope of Threats to National Security (Regional)
Geographical Threat Dimension
Risk Factors
Pakistan and India are inherently hostile to
each other.
Both are Nuclear Armed States.
Any sort of all-out war between these two
states poses serious risks to our national
security.
Presence of Inherent Hostility

26. Scope of Threats to National Security (Regional)
Geographical Threat Dimension
Risk Factors
China and India are currently geopolitically
hostile to each other.
Both countries have engaged in several border
conflicts in recent years.
US-China cold war further increase the risk of
regional entanglement for Bangladesh.
Presence of Geopolitical Hostility

29. Scope of Threats to National Security (Regional)
Geographical Threat Dimension
Risk Factors
Both Afghanistan and Pakistan are inherently
Islamist terror hotspots.
Proximity to these two countries risks fallout.
In the 1990s, we experienced an ideological
surge by Mujaheedinand the subsequent rise
of Islamism.
Proximity to Terrorism Hotspot
The presence of the Taliban-led government
in Afghanistan and the ISKP also risks trans-
national terrorism fallout.

30. Scope of Threats to National Security (Regional)
Trans-national Crime and Drug Trafficking
Within the overall Asian Crime Network due to
Sandwiched Geographical presence
Within the geographical proximity of Golden Triangle, a
transnational drug trafficking hub in South-East Asia.

31. Scope of Threats to National Security (Regional)
Transboundary Rivers and Water Security
57 transboundary Rivers
China is building a 60,000-megawatt
dam on theYarlung Tsangpo River
FarakkaBarrage on Ganga
Teesta Barrage

33. Scope of Threats to National Security (Regional)
Human Trafficking
Risk Factors
Constant exploitation of Bangladesh by
Human Trafficking cartels as a Trafficking
inception point.
Diplomatic fallout with neighboring
countries.
Likely linger the present refugee crisis.

34. Scope of Threats to National Security (Regional)
Neighboring Countries’Policy impacts
SaffronisationIn India
Leading to policies along religious lines like the
controversial Citizenship Act or the National Register of
Citizens (NRC) for Assam.
Due to the Ethnic and religious fluidity and historical
division, any such policy usually leads to contagious effects
across the region.
Growing tensions in Assam over the Muslim population
and their citizenship poses a risk of a future push across the
Sylhet border.
Myanmar Citizenship Act 1982 $ Military Coup
The demonization and disenfranchisement of the Rohingya
minority due to the controversial citizenship act worked as
a root legal reason behind the genocidal actions against
Rohingya.
Power establishment’s patronization of extreme Buddism
and Race and Religion Protection Law.
Lack of stable government to deal with bilateral deputies.
Ma-Ba-Tha
Gerua

35. Scope of Threats to National Security (National)
Political Instability
Reduced Growth
Higher Money Laundering
Policy Failure
Organic Agricultural Policy without Experts'
consultation.
The politically motivated decision to cut tax.
Increasing external debt for prestige projects
without considering economic viability.

36. Scope of Threats to National Security (National)
Homegrown Hostile outfits
Jama'atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya
And the estimated economic burden for the event is $131
million.
Cyclone Amphanoccurred in May 2020 and killed 31 people.
The total cost of Turkey’s earthquake at $84.1 billion including
death tolls of around 50,000.
Bangladesh is positioned at the juncture of several active
tectonic plate boundaries, facing a high risk of moderate to
strong earthquakes
Natural Disasters
Separatists and Islamists nexus

37. Scope of Threats to National Security (National)
Rohingya Refugee Crisis
Long-Terms Threats
An expert team of the forest ministry estimates Tk 2,420cr
environmental loss
According to a 2019 report, Rohingya settlements have severely
damaged biodiversity and depleted over 8,000 acres of reserved
forest in Cox’s Bazar.
Almost 55 percent of Rohingya refugees are children.
The Rohingya population has increased by more than 100,000 in the
last four years.
Some 30,000 Rohingya children are being born every year in
Bangladesh on average.
The more the repatriation lingers, the larger the crisis looms.

38. Monitoring Mechanism
01
Detecting Threats
02
Control Measures
03
Review Measures
04
Conventional Remedial Process

39. Remedial Rationales
Out-of-Control
Externalities
Externalities within
Collaborative Reach
In-control Internalities
Sanctions
Geopolitical Rivalry
EnergyWar
Global Financial/Banking
Collapse
Climate Change
Food Security
Trans-national menaces
Trans-nationalIslamist
Terrorism
HomegrownHostile
Forces
Political Instability
Policy failures

40. Conditions on Which Remedial Measures depend
National Level
Universal Political Consensus about
National Security.
Level of Societal Perception about National
Security.
Party Interest vs National Interest.
Demographic Homogeneity rate.
Capacity of Security and Intelligence
Apparatus.
Geographical Landscape.
Regional Level
Regional Institutional Mechanism
Military Hedging Capacity
Diplomatic Balancing Capacity
Creating Bargaining Chips
International Level
National Image.
Diplomatic Deftness
Degree of Institutional Influence.
Diaspora Influence

42. Nationalism
Degradation
of
Nationalism

43. Any neck ?