5
•If you are expecting a fall in the interest rates (Soft), how do you
plan your deposits in a bank?
•If you are long in Reliance and short in the Sensex futures what
would happen?
•Reverse mortgage
•Hedge funds
•ETF
•Gold ETF
•Credit derivatives
•Demutualisation
Investment Management
Sacrificing something now for the prospect of gaining something later.
Exchange of present cash for the future cash.
Your economic well-being in the long run depends on how wisely or foolishly
you invest today.
All personal investment is designed to achieve a goal in life
Car,House,Security, Status etc.
Compound value of Annuity of Rs.1,00,000 for 25 years at 8% and 20% are
73.10*1,00,000=Rs.73,10,000 (at 8%)
472* 1,00,000=Rs.4,72,00,000 !!! (at 20%)
“BUY IN HASTE REPENT IN LIESURE”
7
•LI Policy of Rs.100000 with 25 years term
Premium Rs.4000 p.a
Maturity value may be around Rs.2,50,000
•4000 p.a invested @14% for 25 years would
become Rs.7,27,440
•Three elements of Investment
•Time element
•Today's sacrifice
•Prospective gain
8
CONCEPTS OF INVESTMENT
1. ECONOMIC INVESTMENT
Net addition to the capital stock of the country.
2.FINANCIAL INVESTMENT
Exchange of financial claims like shares, bonds, real estate, gold etc.
3.INVESTMENT IN THE GENERAL SENSE
Money commitment of some sort
INVESTMENT MEANS EMPLOYMENT OF FUNDS WITH THE OBJECTIVE OF REALISING
ADDITIONAL INCOME OR GROWTH IN VALUE AT A FUTURE DATE.
Sacrifice in the present with the hope of deriving future benefit
9
Two faces of investment coin
•Risk:probability that actual return on
investment will be different from expected
rate of return.
•Expected Rate Return( ERR)
•ERR= RF Real RR + Rate of inflation + risk premium
10
Features of investment
•Safety of the principal
•Liquidity
•Income stability
•Appreciation
•Tangibility
•Tax shelter
•Convenience
The average long term experience in investing is never surprising, but
the short term experience is always surprising*
11
IMPACT COST
•It is the cost of executing a transaction in a
given stock for a specific order size, at any
point of time.
•It is practical and realistic measure of
market liquidity
•It is not bid ask spread
13
•If a person buys 100 shares and sells immediately, he is poorer by
the bid ask spread. 351-350=1
•Bid ask spread is the transaction cost for a small trade. For a large
order impact cost is relevant.
•Ideal price = bid price +ask price/2
350+351/2=350.50
Impact cost for sale of 4000 shares
(ideal price-actual WA Price)/ideal price= impact cost
1000 350 350000
1000 349 349000
2000 348 696000
W. Average 348.75 1395000/4000
18
What would be the prices after 25
years?
•If the prices are increased by 20% p.a.
•Bus charges to Mangalore-30 X95= 2850
•Masala Dosa-10X92=920
19
EXAMPLE FOR INTEREST RATE RISK
WHEN THE GOVERNMENT INCREASED THE
INTEREST RATE FROM 11.5% -12.5%IN 1991-1992,THE
BANKS LOST AROUND RS.3000 CRORES DUE TO THE
DEPRECIATION IN THE VALUE OF GOVERNMENT
SECURITIES
IS IT A DEPRECIATION SCAM?
20
EXAMPLE FOR MARKET RISK
Prices before and after Harshad Mehta scam
ACC
Mazda Ind
Rs.500
Rs.6
Rs.10500
Rs.1650
Appolo Tyres
Aman
Dyechem
Rs.37
Rs.70
Rs. 510
Rs.800
Karnataka
Ball Bearing
Rs.3 Rs.185
VIP IndustriesRs.100 Rs.450
22
John Train “You need to get deeply in to
your bones because the stock market moves in cycles so that you will infallibly get
wonderful bargains every few years and have a chance to sell again at ridiculously
high prices a few years later.”
SENSEX MOVEMENT
FROM 272 to 657 between Dec 84-Feb 86 (143% in 13 months)
From 850 to 1420 between June 1990 and Sept 1990 (67% in 4 months)
From 1220 to 4285 between Feb 91 and Mar 92 (250% in 14 months)
From June 2004 till date the rise is around 65% in 15 months
From 1978-1979 till 2007 the compound growth rate is around 20.70%*
23
EXAMPLE FOR APPRECIATION
INFOSYS BONUS WIPROBONUS
1994
1997
1:1(200)
1:1(400)
1990
1992
1:1(200)
1:1(400)
1999
2001
1:1(800)
3:1(32OO)
1995
1997
1:1(800)
2:1(2400)
2004
2006
TOTAL VALUE
3:1(12800)
1:1(25600)
Rs. 800lakhs
2004
2005
2:1(7200)
1:1(14400)
Rs.350
lakhs
24
Market risk !!!
•Sensex fell by 826 points on 18th May
2006 highest ever fall in a single day. Loss
of investors’ wealth was Rs. 2,23,416
crores.
25
Speculation
•Speculation involves buying and selling assets with the
expectation of getting short term profits out of price
fluctuations. (CAPITAL APPRECIATION)
•He generally uses borrowed money and constructs
leveraged portfolio
•He prefers to buy on margin money/margin trading
•Speculator generally chooses derivative markets
•He may change his position many times even during a day
NO TREE GROWS TO THE SKY
26
Types of Speculators
•BULL SPECULATOR
•BEAR SPECULATOR
•STAG
•LAMEDUCK
NEVER CONFUSE BRILLIANCE WITH A BULL MARKET
27
Speculative Transactions
•Arbitrage trade
•Cornering/Rigging the market
•Wash sales (fictitious dealings)
•Futures and option
•Blank transfers
•Margin trading
•Badla system-Banned in Dec 1993
28
Examples of Speculative
Trading
•Distressed securities-verge of insolvent
•Trading based upon firm specific events M&A, Bonus, buybacks
etc.-investment
•Directional trading-long in Indian index futures and short in US
index futures contract
•Market timing-to take advantage of short term price fluctuations.
•High leverage using futures contract
•Short selling when the fund managers feel that the securities are
overvalued
29
INVESTMENT AND SPECULATION
1.Investment-creditorship securities
Speculation-ownership securities
2.Investment –outright purchase
Speculation-on margin payment
3.Investment-earnings
Speculation-capital gain
4.Investment-small risk
Speculation-large risk
5.Investment –cautious and conservative
Speculation-daring and careless
6.Investment-scientific analysis and intrinsic worth
Speculation-tips, rumors and inside information
7.Investment-stable income
Speculation-uncertain and erratic
30
GAMBLING
Webster's Dictionary: “Gambling is an act of
betting on an uncertain outcome”
In gambling the outcome is largely a matter
of luck.
They are risk lovers
EVERY INVESTMENT IS SOMEWHAT GAMBLING
31
FEATURES OF GAMBLING
•Gambling is based on blind chance and not
knowledge
•Gambling is typical, chronic and repetitive
•Gambling absorbs all other interest
•Gambler displays persistent optimism
•Gambler never stops after winning
•He takes more risk than he can afford
•He enjoys strange thrill-pleasure and pain
•His time horizon is very very short
•He acts on tips and rumors **
32
SECURITY ANALYSIS AND
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Security analysis is concerned with the analysis of risk-return
characteristics of individual securities.
•Intrinsic value of a security
•Fundamental and technical analysis
•Undervalued and overvalued securities
•Risk of individual securities and that of portfolio*
33
Definition of Security
Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 is the principal Act which
governs the trading of securities in India.
As per sec 2(h),the securities include
1.Shares, scrips, stocks, bonds, debentures, debenture stock,
or other marketable securities of a like nature in or of any
incorporated company or other body corporate
2.Derivative
3.Units or any other instrument by any collective investment
scheme to the investors in such schemes
4.Government securities
5.Such other instruments as may be declared by the C. G as
securities
6.Rights or interest in securities ( warrants)
34
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Portfolio is a bundle of securities.
Portfolio management is concerned with all the processes
involved in the creation and management of an
investment portfolio.
Objective: Maximize the returns and Minimize the risk.
•Security Analysis
•Portfolio Analysis
•Portfolio Selection
•Portfolio Revision
•Portfolio Evaluation*
35
INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES
•SECURITY FORMS OF INVESTMENT
•NON-SECURITY FORMS OF
INVESTMENT
•FINANCIAL INVESTMENT & REAL
INVESTMENT
36
EQUITY SHARES
MOST ROMANTIC
POTENTIAL REWARDS AND RISK ARE HIGHEST
TYPES OF SHARES
1.GROWTH SHARES
2.INCOME SHARES
3.CYCLICAL SHARES
4.DEFENSIVE SHARES
5.SPECULATIVE SHARES
6.TURNAROUND SHARES
7.BLUE CHIP SHARES
8.EMERGING BLUECHIPS*
37
Sweat Equity and Non-Voting
Shares
Sweat Equity Shares:Sec 79 A allows the issue of these shares in
addition to other kinds of shares.
•Shares are issued to employees and directors
•Shares issued for consideration other than cash for providing know-
how or for making available the rights in the nature of IPR or value
additions, by whatever name called
Non-Voting Shares:
•These shares are entitled to all the benefits except voting rights.
•They carry 20% more dividends than the voting shares
•Max. 25% of voting shares
•All benefits in the form of rights or bonus shares are to be in the form of
non-voting shares only.*
38
Warrants
•An option issued by a company to the security
holders whereby the buyer is granted the right to
purchase a given number of securities at a given
exercise price during a given period.
•They have a life span of 3-5 years
•Warrants may be issued either with debenture or equity.
•Warrants can be separately traded in the market*
39
Benefits of Warrants
•Warrants make the instruments more attractive
•Increases the market for debentures
•Cash flow and capital structure can be planned better
•Warrants give option to the investor
•Warrants are liquid and can be traded in the market.*
40
BENEFITS OF EQUITY SHARES
•CAPITAL APPRECIATION
•BONUS SHARES
•ANNUAL DIVIDENDS
•RIGHTS SHARES
•PREFERENTIAL ALLOTMENTS
•VOTING RIGHTS
•LIMITED LIABILITY
•OTHER BENEFITS-ANNUAL REPORTS, CUOPONS, DISCOUNTS….
•TAX BENEFIT
•MARKETABILITY AND LIQUIDITY
•WARRANTS*
42
SOME TIPS
•DO NOT BE IRRATIONAL
•DO NOT BE PART OF THE CROWD
•ADMIT YOUR MISTAKES AND CUT YOUR LOSS
•CONTROL YOUR GREED AND FEAR
•DO NOT FOLLOW YOUR NEIGHBOUR
•INVEST FOR THE LONG TERM*
43
RIGHTS OF EQUITY SHAREHOLDERS
•RESIDUAL CLAIM ON THE INCOME OF THE FIRM
•THEY ELECT THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
•THEY HAVE PRE EMPTIVE RIGHTS ON FURTHER ISSUE
•THEY HAVE RESIDUAL CLAIM ON THE ASSETS
•THEY HAVE THE RIGHT TO ATTEND AND VOTE*
44
DEBENTURES AND BONDS
Features of debentures and bonds
•Secured instrument
•High rate of return
•Capital appreciation
•Marketable security
•Other attractions
•Inverse relationship between the value of the bond and
interest rates
•Indenture-trust deed between the co. and trustees.*
45
BANK DEPOSITS
GUIDELINES
•Keep small deposits
•Study the rules
•Joint names
•Written instruction for interest
•Renewal of matured deposits
•Check deposit receipts
•Complain to RBI-dept of banking
operations*
46
COMPANY DEPOSITS
•HIGHER INTEREST RATES
•FRONT END INCENTIVES
•VARIETY OF DEPOSIT SCHEMES
•OTHER ATTRACTIONS -INSURANCE COVER
ADVICES
•DONOT KEEP FD IN NEW CO, PVT. CO,UNLISTED CO, CO NOT
PAYING DIVIDENDS, WITHOUT GOOD RATINGS ETC.
•DONOT RENEW WITHOUT FIRST ASKING THE AMOUNT
•RATINGS FROM RATING AGENCIES
•DIVERSIFY YOUR DEPOSITS
•GIVE PREFERENCE TO LOCAL COMPANIES*
47
MUTUAL FUNDS
Pool the funds from small investors and invest
wisely in a diversified portfolio
•Mutual funds have overtaken the bank deposits in many western
countries
•In USA MF accounts for 65% of market Cap and it is around 10% in
India.
•29 playes-475 schemes-Rs.285,000 crores
•Rs.30 lakh crores mkt. cap, Rs. 17 lakh crores bank deposits
•Pru ICICI ranks No.1 with AUMRs.31431 crores UTI=Rs.30958 crores
•Share of MF out of total financial savings has gone up from0.1% in 04-
05 to 3.6% in 05-06
TWO TYPES OF MUTUAL FUNDS
•Close-ended funds-listed on stock market
•Open-ended funds-repurchase facility*
49
Advantages of Mutual Funds
•Expert professional management
•Spread of risk
•Freedom from emotional involvement
•Instant diversification
•Automatic reinvestment of dividends
•Freedom from housekeeping*
50
POST OFFICE SAVINGS SCHEMES
•Public provident fund-8%
•PO savings bank account-3.5%
•PO recurring deposit schemes-8%
•PO monthly income scheme-8%
•National savings certificates-8%
•Kissan vikas patra-8%*
51
INSURANCE
OBJECTIVES
•PROTECTION TO THE FAMILY
•REGULAR SAVING
•BONUS FROM THE COMPANY
•TAX BENEFITS
•HOUSING FINANCE*
52
How much to insure
•Need for minimum protection
•Present income level
•Present age
•Tax benefits
Remember
•Do not over insure
•Do not under insure
•Pay the premium promptly
•Surrender the policy at the right time
53
HOW MUCH TO INSURE?
•NEED FOR MINIMUM PROTECTION
•PRESENT INCOME LEVEL
•TAX BENEFITS
•PRESENT AGE
•DONOT OVER OR UNDER INSURE
•PAY THE PREMIUM PROMPTLY
•SURRENDER THE POLICY AT THE RIGHT TIME*
54
Government Securities
•Gilt edged securities
•Issued by central, state and local
Governements
•Safety is highest
•Return is not very attractive
•Traded in NSE`s wholesale debt market segment*
56
Money Market Instruments
•Treasury Bills
•Commercial papers
•Certificate of deposits
•Repo and reverse repo*
57
Futures and Options
•Futures contract is a standardized contract between the
two parties to buy or sell an asset at a certain time in the
future at a certain price and traded on an exchange.
•Options are of two types. They are call and put options
•Call option gives the buyer a right but not obligation to
buy a given quantity of underlying asset at a given price
on or before a given future date.
•Put option gives the buyer a right but not obligation to
sell a given quantity of the underlying asset at a given
price on or before a given date.
58
Gold and Silver
•VALUE OF GOLD APPRECIATED BY ABOUT 7.6 % FROM 1925 -2005
•AVERAGE RATE OF INFLATION BETWEEN 1925 -2005 IS AROUND 6 %
•MORE ATTRACTIVE THAN BANK DEPOSITS
•INDIA IS THE LARGEST CONSUMER OF GOLD
•TOTAL VALUE OF GOLD HELD BY INDIANS IS RS.700,000 CRORES
•GLOBAL STOCK OF GOLD IS AROUND 1,45,000 TONNES. 10% IS
INDIA`S SHARE*
•INTERNATIONAL PRICE PER OUNCE IS $466.
•IT HAD TOUCHED $800 IN 1980!!!
59
DO YOU LIKE GOLD?(LADIES)
•GOLD IS INDESTUCTIBLE
•GOLD HAS ASTHETIC APPEAL -BEAUTY
•GOLD IS MALLABLE-I OUNCE=100 SQUARE FEET OF SHEET
•GOLD IS DUCTILE-I OUNCE=50 MILES OF WIRE (28.35 GRAMS)
•VALUABLE-ONE CAN CARRY 10 MILLIONS OF GOLD UNDER HIS
SHIRT
•GOLD IS SCANDAL FREE & HELPFUL IN TIMES OF CRISIS
•
•NO INCOME AND ONLY CAPITAL APPRECIATION
•PSYCHOLOGICAL SATISFACTION*
•MOF HAS CLEARED EXCHANGE TRADED FUND ON GOLD(MF)
60
Gold
•Gold possessed by Indians is about 30000
tons valued at $700 billions ( Rs.30,00,000
crores) of which around 400 tons are held
by the Govt.
•India is the world`s largest consumer of
gold
•700 tons of gold is imported annually
•India is having 7-10% of global gold stock
62
REMEMBER
“THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF GOLD
THROUGHOUT HISTORY
HAS NOT BEEN THAT YOU MAKE
MONEY BY HOLDING IT, BUT
RATHER YOU DO NOT LOSE IT.”
63
REAL ESTATE
•CAPITAL APPRECIATION IS VERY HIGH
•LOANS ARE AVAILABLE
•TAX ADVANTAGES
•PSYCHOLOGICAL SATISFACTION
•CANNOT BE STOLEN
•SUPPLY OF LAND IS FIXED*
64
Points to be Noted
•Requirement of capital is high.
•Lack of liquidity
•Verify the title deed properly
•Locality is important
•The plots should be approved by local authority
*
65
ANTIQUES AND ART OBJECTS
•PAINTINGS OF HUSSAIN,RAZA ,MENON
•HISTORICAL COINS, MANUSCRIPT, IDOL ETC.
•Registration with Archeological Society of India
“ARCHEOLOGIST IS THE BEST FRIEND A WOMAN CAN HAVE . THE OLDER
SHE GETS, THE MORE INTERESTED HE BECOMES IN HER” *
66
PRECIOUS STONES
•DIOMONDS,RUBBIES, PEARLS ETC. —RARITY AND BEAUTY
•POOR LIQUIDITY
•SUBJECTIVITY IN VALUATION
•NO REGULAR RETURN
FOUR C`S OF DIOMONDS
1.CARAT
2.CLARITY
3.COLOUR
4.CUT*
67
Sources of investment
information
•Financial dailies-ET, BL, BS….
•Business and economic periodicals
•Professional and academic journals-FM, Harvard Business
Review, Journal of applied corporate finance….
•Financial and economic directories-CMIE, SE directories
•Government and quasi government publications-RBI
•Corporate data
•WWW
68
BONUS SHARES
•-COLGATE
YEARS
BONUS RATIO AMRUTANJAN
YEARS
BONUS RATIO
1982
1985
1:19(200)
1:1(400)
1980
1983
1:1
1:2
1987
1989
1:1(800)
1:1(1600)
1986
1989
2:3
1:1
1991
1993
3:5(2530)
1:1(5060)
1995 1:1
69
BONUS COMPONENTS IN CAPITAL
IOC
WIPRO
91%
99%
GLAXO
CENTURY TEX
98%
94%
INFOSYS
CIPLA
96%
97%
FINOLEX CABLE
ITC
95%
81%
ASIAN PAINT
CASTROL
97%
94%
SHAW WALLACE
SUND FINANCE
98%
96%
COLGATE
PUN TRACTORS
82%
92%
HLL
TISCO
60%
47%