Smc covid analysis report 21 6-2020

Smc covid analysis report 21 6-2020

1. AN ANALYSIS OF
SURAT MUNICIPAL CORPORATION
COVID-19 UPDATES
A Puzzle Unsolved
People’s Union for Civil Liberties
Surat District Unit, Gujarat
Email: [email protected], Ph: [phone]
Published In Public service on June 21, 2020

2. Background
The Covid-19 pandemic has had its effects world over. From developed to developing nations,
big or small is fighting the Covid-19 crisis. Each country is having its own mix of measures to
contain and arrest the spread of covid-19. The Government of India under the Prime Minister
Narendra Modi choose to implement strict lockdown as a sudden measure. The Prime Minister
called for Janata Curfew (Voluntary Curfew) on March 22, 2020 through his address on March
20, 2020. The first lockdown of 21 days (3 weeks) was suddenly announced on 8pm of March
24, 2020 with a notice of just about 4 hours to start from 00.00hrs on March 25, 2020.
Subsequently, the lockdown was extended into phase 2 (April 15, 2020 to May 3, 2020), phase
3 (May 5, 2020 to May 17, 2020) & phase 4 further till May 31, 2020. Now we are into phase 5
of lockdown, which is christened as Unlock 1 with partial opening of commercial and industrial
activities.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) issued its first advisory regarding Covid-
19 on February 4, 2020 to Chief Secretaries of all States/UTs (Annexure 1). Even after this,
there was a major international program ‘Namaste Trump’ organised in Gujarat to welcome US
President Donald Trump on February 24, 2020. As a measure of caution International
Passengers from few countries were screened, while others were not. The Indian State
response to the pandemic is adhoc and inconsistent. Despite India’s federal structure, Indian
Government consulted Chief Ministers very late, and did not take them into confidence in time.
Union Government says we are into Unlock phase 1, but there is no coherence in the unlock
policies adopted by various states. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare is time and again
instructing States to follow different models (Kerala, Bhilwara, Agra, Karnataka), this keeps
changing from time to time. Despite Covid-19 cases increasing rampantly in Gujarat, especially
in Ahmedabad, the Covid-19 dashboard for Gujarat state - https://gujcovid19.gujarat.gov.in/ no
longer works and the daily press briefing on Covid-19 situation by the state government was
suspended long ago.
India has seen a substantial increase in the number of Covid-19 positive cases all through the
phases of lockdown. We have neared 4 lakh cases as of June 21, 2020. The first lockdown
was imposed to augment the health facilities and contain the spread of infection in the country
and prepare to face a full blown crisis, if such time has to come. Indian Government claims
partial success in containing the immediate spread of Covid-19, but is non-committal on its
efforts to arrest the spread. Now with the opening of the commercial and industrial activities in
Unlock phase 1, the number of cases are rapidly increasing. While the Indian Government is
saying that the increasing rate of recovery and falling death ratio is reassuring.
2

3. Cases Surat
1
Gujarat
2
India
3
Mar 25, 20206 32 606
Apr 14, 202083 536 10815
May 3, 2020678 3897 40263
May 17, 20201094 6055 90927
May 31, 20201662 6106 182143
Covid-19 situation in Surat: Disaster of Management instead of Disaster Management
Surat is one of the fastest growing urban centre in India. With the diamond, textile and also
other heavy industries in Surat there is a substantial migrant population in the city and
peripheral areas. With a population of approx 6 million (60 lakhs) it is the second most
populous city in Gujarat. Surat saw its first Covid-19 case on March 16, 2020 when a London
returnee lady was found infected, since then there has been steady increase in the number of
positive Covid-19 cases in Surat, which has crossed 3000 mark. The Surat Municipal
Corporation (SMC) started regular Covid-19 updates
4
in the form of press release from April
16, 2020. The details provided on the measures and spread of Covid-19 in the city were
gradually curtailed. The SMC commissioner has discontinued his daily address through
Facebook (It was always one way communication).
Transparency at times of crisis helps in lowering the anxiety and false news among the
citizens. The daily statistics release of Covid-19 updates by SMC is a welcome step. It helps
in keeping the citizens informed about the efforts of the authorities and impact of the
pandemic on citizens.
Numbers, statistics and parameters when seen in isolation reflect differently than when seen
comprehensively. They are correlated. To properly understand the impact of the strategy
adopted, the daily updates and statistics provided by the authorities are to be seen
comprehensively over a timeline. The present effort is in this direction and it attempts to see
the daily Covid-19 related announcement and press releases by the SMC in a
perspective and consolidated manner over a period from April 16, 2020 till May 31,
2020. It also aims at providing feedback to the authorities and demanding required
course correction.
1. http://office.suratmunicipal.org/SuratCOVID19/
2. https://science.thewire.in/covid19
3. https://science.thewire.in/covid19
4. http://office.suratmunicipal.org/SuratCOVID19/
3

4. We have tried to put the daily data published for Covid-19 on a time scale and tried to
understand how things have evolved. However the daily gloomy picture, turned into confusion
and queries when all the data was put together. We have relied on Indian Government data
where it is available, other secondary sources when there is no data available on Government
website. The observation has been that there is absence of coherence in the data provided by
SMC through its daily Covid-19 updates and data put up on Covid-19 dashboard on SMC
website. The analysis reveals that there is more confusion then clarity. It points towards lack of
coherent strategy to fight the pandemic and its impacts.
The unplanned approach to the pandemic situation has been evident in every manner. Surat
was one of the worst affected cities by the humanitarian distress caused to lakhs of migrant and
non-migrant workers. PUCL, Surat made several written and personal representations to
peruse the authorities to deploy measures to ease life for the migrants and the labour class in a
sensitive and sensible manner.
As across Gujarat in Surat too the handling of Covid-19 crisis has turned out to be Disaster
of Management instead of Disaster Management. PUCL Surat wrote a letter to the
authorities on June 3, 2020 seeking clarification regarding the mismatch in the Covid-19
data provided, however the letter is yet to be acknowledged, let alone responded
(Annexure 2).
4

5. Index
Page
Acknowledgements 6
1. Surat Testing 7-9
2. Surat Positive Tests 10-12
3. Surat Zonewise Positive Cases 13
3.1. Central 13-14
3.2. Varachha A 15-16
3.3. Varachha B 17-18
3.4. Rander 19-20
3.5. Katargam 21-22
3.6. Limbayat 23-24
3.7. Udhna 25-26
3.8. Athwa 27-28
4. Recommendation 29
5. Annexures 30-37
Annexure 1 30
Annexure 2 31-36
5

6. Acknowledgements
I wish to acknowledge the support and motivation for this report by Rohit Prajapati,
National Secretary, PUCL. He is a friend, philosopher and guide to me.
Also this report would not have been possible in its form without the vital inputs and
edits by Ayesha Khan.
I also thank my associates and colleagues from the press fraternity, civil society,
political class and officials who work hard anonymously; all a constant source of
strength and support in such public spirited endeavours.
Krishnakant Chauhan
Surat, June 21, 2020.
6

7. 1. SURAT TESTING
The Government of India through its department of Health & Family Welfare, have been
issuing Covid-19 guidelines from time to time. The basic strategy to contain and arrest the
spread of the pandemic in India was announced in terms of 3T – Tracking, Testing &
Treating. However later it has recommended various models from time to time – Bhilwara
Model, Kerala Model, Karnataka Model, Agra Model, etc.
In the High Court of Gujarat in Suo-Moto PIL 42 of 2020, the Advocate General of
Gujarat, Kamal Trivedi argued that if more testing would have been done, 70% of
Ahmedabad would test Covid-19 positive
5
. This starkly points that the announced
strategy and implemented strategy of Gujarat government is both different and
contradictory.
On June 18, 2020 Gujarat conducted approx 4500 tests
6
with a cumulative total of
2,87,647 tests. At this rate the testing ratio during the lockdown period is 48.47 tests per
million for a 6.93 crore population of Gujarat.
Thus, the government has pursued Specificity Testing. During the initial stages of the
outbreak, when we were in short supply of testing kits this strategy was justified. However
with the increase in availability of the testing kits the testing ratio has not improved much.
Gujarat government has not moved from Specificity Testing to High Sensitivity Testing
7
.
In Surat, authorities claimed Screening exercise in a door to door survey. But the health
department surveyors, comprising of untrained ANM workers or nursing college staff were
not given any equipment, not even a handheld thermal scanner. The door to door
screening was dependent only on oral response from the head of the family or whoever
was present at the home.
In Surat, till the end of second lockdown 13,578 tests were conducted, assuming all this
tests were conducted during lockdown period, it is about 340 tests per day. The Surat
testing ratio turns to be 56 tests per million population or just 0.56 per ten thousand
population. This ratio is better than the Gujarat state average of 48.47 tests per million.
The daily testing increased during Lockdown 3, to 395.28 tests, improving the daily
average. Thus, 65 tests per million were conducted during this period or 0.65 tests per ten
thousand population.

5. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ahmedabad/if-more-tests-done-70-would-test-ve/articleshow/75904099.cms
6. https://science.thewire.in/covid19
7. https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/coronavirus-testing-india-numbers-6434215/
7

8. During Lockdown 4, the daily testing average comes to 321.83 tests, an absolute decrease
when compared to the first three lockdown. With 53.63 tests per million or 0.53 tests per ten
thousand population. Thus it can be seen clearly that testing reduced during the 4
th
lockdown.
From the table for lockdown 1 & 2 it can be seen that there were two different figures in the
same press release/Covid-19 update by the SMC. The column titled ‘Daily Test’ gives the
number of tests conducted daily. The number for April 16, 2020 is cumulative number of tests
conducted till then. The 5
th
column (Total) is sum total of 3
rd
(Daily +Ve) and 4
th
(Daily -Ve)
column. The 6
th
column shows the difference between Daily tests conducted and the sum total
of Daily +Ve & -Ve tests. The positive difference means that there are pending test results and
the negative number would probably mean that pending test results were declared later.
However interesting thing is that at the end of 2
nd
lockdown on May 3, 2020 there was a
pendency of 1173 test results. Why was there a net pendency of 1173 results? This after 5
weeks of the lockdown when laboratories were functional at the State and District level and the
health infrastructure as claimed by the Government was augmented substantially. Why the
pendency of 1173 tests results was never cleared and remained 1132 even till the end of
the 4
th
lockdown? Why has the SMC discontinued giving figures for number of tests
conducted daily and details on Positve and Negative test results?
8

9. 9

10. 2. SURAT POSITIVE TESTS
From 1st positive case on March 16, 2020 till May 31, 2020 the positive cases in Surat stood at
1597 as given in the updates, 1662 as shown on the covid dashboard (screenshot image below),
1624 as total of bifurcation provided and 1399 as provided in the Zone wise data by SMC. These
figures from the same source, i.e. SMC do not match each other. Why such discrepancy or
mismatch? This mismatch has to be explained and answered.
The spread of infection and identified cases steadily increased in Surat. The daily cases in 2
nd

column shows the number of positive cases announced daily. The 3
rd
(Hospital), 4
th
( )and 5
th

(Community) column shows the bifurcation provided in the covid updates for the identified positive
cases. However when the numbers from 3
rd
, 4
th
and 5
th
column are totalled, they don’t match the
announced positive cases.
At the end of 2
nd
lockdown on May 3, 2020 there was a difference of 104 cases in the daily
cumulative positive cases. By the end of 4
th
lockdown the difference increased to 118 cases that
were not announced in the daily updates.
The SMC discontinued giving details on health conditions of admitted positive patients
from April 18, 2020 just two days after the updates were first published. From May 29, 2020
the SMC has discontinued giving bifurcated details of the positive cases.
10

11. 11

12. 12

13. 3. SURAT ZONEWISE POSITIVE CASES
Surat city has a population of about 63 lakhs as of 2019. The population density per sq/km is
13,680 as per 2011 census. The first positive case for Covid-19 was identified on March 16,
2020 of a London returnee lady, till June 18, 2020 it increased to 3017 cases according to
SMC Covid-19 dashboard and 2904 as per Covid-19 updates.
3.1. CENTRAL
The Central zone in Surat covers 18 corporator wards with an area of 8.18 sq/km and
has a population of 4,08,760 with density of 49,971 per sq/km.
From 28 cases on 16/4/2020 the central zone had 196 cases on 31/5/2018 as per
zone wise data, however the total cases as per daily cases was 219. A difference
of 23 cases.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 9 times during
the whole lockdown period till 31/5/2020.
There was a difference of 19 cases during lockdown 1 & 2, and 2 each for
lockdown 3 & 4, totalling to 23.
13

14. 14

15. 3.2. VARACHHA ‘A’
The East Zone which includes Varachha A and Varachha B zone an area of
37.525 sq/km and has a population of 11,37,138 with density of 30,303 per
sq/km. Varachha A zone covers 11 corporator wards.
From 5 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 211 cases on May 31, 2020, however
the total cases amounted to 190 as per daily count. Difference of 21 cases
is unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 11 times
during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020.
There was a difference of 12 cases during lockdown 1 & 2, during
lockdown 3 it was -1 and 10 cases during 4
th
lockdown.
15

16. 16

17. 3.3. VARACHHA ‘B’
The East Zone which includes Varachha A and Varachha B zone an area of
37.525 sq/km and has a population of 11,37,138 with density of 30,303 per
sq/km. Varachha B zone covers 5 corporator wards.
From 2 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 37 cases on May 31, 2020, however
the total cases amounted to 34 as per daily count. Difference of 3 cases is
unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed only 3
times during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020.
There was a difference of 2 cases during lockdown 3 and 1 case during 4
th

lockdown.
17

18. 18

19. 3.4. RANDER
The Rander zone in Surat covers 11 corporator wards with an area of 51.279
sq/km and has a population of 4,24,986 with density of 8,288 per sq/km.
From 16 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 73 cases on May 31, 2020, however
the total cases amounted to 71 as per daily count. Difference of 2 cases is
unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 8 times
during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020.
There was a difference of 1 case each during lockdown 1 & 2 and 3.
19

20. 20

21. 3.5. KATARGAM
The Katargam zone in Surat covers 12 corporator wards with an area of 36.363
sq/km and has a population of 7,05,163 with density of 19,392 per sq/km.
From 2 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 253 cases on May 31, 2020, however
the total cases amounted to 228 as per daily count. Difference of 25 cases is
unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 13
times during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020.
There was a difference of 11 cases during lockdown 1 & 2, 1 case during 3
rd

and 13 cases in 4
th
lockdown.
21

22. 22

23. 3.6. LIMBAYAT
The Limbayat zone in Surat covers 12 corporator wards with an area of 19.492
sq/km and has a population of 7,48,304 with density of 38390 per sq/km.
From 31 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 570 cases on May 31, 2020, however
the total cases amounted to 470 as per daily count. The huge difference of 100
cases is highest in Limbayat Zone and remains unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 13
times during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020.
There was a difference of 78 cases during lockdown 1 & 2, 12 cases in
lockdown 3 and 10 case during 4
th
lockdown.
23

24. 24

25. 3.7. UDHNA
The Udhna zone in Surat covers 12 corporator wards with an area of 61.764
sq/km and has a population of 6,95,028 with density of 11253 per sq/km.
From 7 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 189 cases on May 31, 2020, however
the total cases amounted to 178 as per daily count. A difference of 11 cases is
unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 7 times
during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020.
There was a difference of 3 each cases during lockdown 1 &2 and 3 and 5
case during 4
th
lockdown.
25

26. 26

27. 3.8. ATHWA
The Athwa zone in Surat covers 11 corporator wards with an area of 111.912
sq/km and has a population of 3,47,447 with density of 3105 per sq/km.
From 5 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 45 cases on May 31, 2020, however
the total cases amounted to 41 as per daily count. Difference of 4 cases is
unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 5 times
during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020.
There was a difference of 3 cases during lockdown 1 & 2 and 1 case during
lockdown 3.
27

28. 28

29. 29
4. Recommendation
Transparency is an essential practice to ensure co-operation and participation in a
time of crisis or otherwise, it should not be compromised for the fear of criticism. Critical
thinking and enquiry is an indicator of active democracy, it strengthens efforts and
assists in course correction. The non-participartory and coercive approach towards
mitigating Covid-19 situation has resulted in the largest humanitarian crisis since 1947
partition, nor have the government efforts resulted in the expected outcomes for a
strategy pursued.
After a critical look and analysis of the Covid-19 data of Surat and resultant findings we
list as below some important recommendations:
1. The state government should proactively publish all the important Covid-19 data with
District/City details, on its website for public viewing and scrutiny.
2. The state government should set up independent panel of experts and persons of
high integrity to investigate the glaring discrepancies and mismatch found in the Surat
Covid-19 data.
3. The state authorities should conduct Covid-19 testing on a large scale to identify
infection and treat.
4. SMC should continue to publish all the Covid-19 testing (Hospital, Contact,
Community, Private & Government lab) and positive & negative case data with important
bifurcation as was used in the update for April 16, 2020.
5. The state authorities to ensure proper hygeine facilities and protective equipments for
front line Covid-19 warriors like medical/health staff, security personnel (police & hospital
security).
6. The state authorities should provide additional Covid-19 remuneration for frontline
medical & health personnels and hygeine/safai workers.
7. The state government should encourage independent researchers, students to take
up analytical studies regarding Covid-19 strategy adopted by the government.
8. The state government ministers and officials should conduct regular press conference
and address press queries in person.

30. Annexure 1
30

31. Annexure 2
31

32. 32

33. 33

34. 34

35. 35

36. 36