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1. STRATEGIC STUDIES AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS LT COL W RONO 1

2. Scope Introduction Strategic studies and classical Realist tradition Theories of causes of war Case study approaches to causes of war Human nature explanations of war Contemporary dynamics of war Law and use of force 2

3. Introduction Though Strategy in contemporary world is as much concerned with promotion of peace as with conduct of war, phenomenon of war remains a central concern Strategic theory Is concerned with the use of force to achieve the goals of one community in conflict with others Explores how to employ military forces to advance political, social, economic, cultural or ideological interests War’s instrumental nature – logical and practical subordination to objectives outside itself - is war’s most important characteristic 3

4. Strategic Studies and IR The philosophical underpinnings or assumptions of scholars, policy makers and writers of Strategy is found in classical Realism For strategic theorists, Realism best explains nature of international political life and how best to handle political-military problems Realists share similar views on human nature, anarchy and power, international law, morals and institutions 4

5. Strategic Studies and IR- Cont … Human Nature Pessimistic Hobbesian view- People are inherently destructive, selfish, competitive and aggressive Hobbes ‘Human beings are capable of generosity, kindness and cooperation but the pride and egoism inherent in human nature means mankind is also prone to conflict, violence and great evil’ Destructive traits can never be eradicated Realism is not a normative theory- but offers a way to cope with ever present threat of conflict by use of strategy to minimize likelihood/severity of international violenc e 5

6. Strategic Studies and IR- Cont … Human Nature Realists stress what they see as harsh realities of world politics and are contemptuous of possibility of perpetual peace Gordon Harland ‘Realism is a clear recognition of the limits of reason in politics: the acceptance of fact that political realities are power realities and that power must be countered with power; that self interest is the primary dictum in the actions of all nations’ In an anarchical system, power is the only currency of value when security is threatened 6

7. Strategic Studies and IR- Cont … Anarchy and power IR viewed by Realists in equally pessimistic terms Conflict and war are endemic in world politics and future is likely to be a replica of the past States are engaged in relentless competitive struggle Unlike in domestic environment conflict among state s difficult to resolve because of lack of authority to create justice and rule of law State adopt self-help approach to NI and especially security 7

8. Strategic Studies and IR- Cont … Anarchy and power States reserve right to use force/war to achieve objectives – a right that citizens have given up to the State Who wins in IR does not depend on who is right according to some moral or legal ruling Power determines who gets their way Might makes right 8

9. Strategic Studies and IR- Cont … International Law, Morality and Institutions Realists see a ltd role for international law, morality and institutions in world politics In a domestic context law can be effective in dealing with competing selfish interests In an anarchic int’al system states agree to laws which suits them and disregard them when NI are threatened Moral considerations do not constrain behaviour of states and little attention should be given to moralizing state of world politics 9

10. Strategic Studies and IR- Cont … International Law, Morality and Institutions Institutions play a ltd role in preventing conflict Institutions can create opportunities for cooperation but they are not independent actors but agents set up by states to serve their NI States support institutions when their NI are served but abandoned or ignored if NI are threatened 10

11. Theories of causes of War Existence of many theories that try to explain the causes of war No consensus as to what causes war, what methodologies of study are best or whether generalizations can be done on something as complex and contextually dependent as war Difficulty because war is a ‘blanket’ term used to describe diverse activities – linked only by organized military violence 11

12. Theories of causes of War- Cont … Systemic–level theories The realist tradition has dominated the study of war since Thucydides, and includes Machiavellians, Hobbesians , classical balance of power theorists, Waltzian neo-realists , and hegemonic transition theorists K ey actors in world politics are sovereign states that act rationally to advance their security, power, and wealth in a conflictual international system that lacks a legitimate governmental authority to regulate conflicts or enforce agreements 12

13. Theories of causes of War- Cont … Systemic–level theories Balance of power theory Balance of power theory posits the avoidance of hegemony as the primary goal of states and the maintenance of an equilibrium of power in the system as the primary instrumental goal The theory predicts that states, and particularly great powers, will balance against those states that constitute the primary threats to their interests and particularly against any state that threatens to secure a hegemonic position 13

14. Theories of causes of War- Cont … Balance of power theory The balancing mechanism (external alliances and internal military buildups) successfully avoids hegemony, because potential hegemons are deterred by their anticipation of a military coalition against them or because they are defeated in war after deterrence fails In balance of power theory, serious threats of hegemony are a sufficient condition for the formation of a blocking coalition, which leads to the withdrawal of the threatening power or to a hegemonic war Little utility in explaining origins of war 14

15. Theories of causes of War- Cont … Power transition theory Hegemons commonly arise and use their strength to create a set of political and economic structures and norms of behavior that enhance the stability of the system while advancing their own security Differential rates of growth, the costs of imperial overextension, and the development of vested domestic interests lead to the rise and fall of hegemons T he probability of a major war is greatest at the point when the declining leader is being overtaken by the rising challe nger 15

16. Theories of causes of War- Cont … Societal-level theories “ S capegoat hypothesis” or “diversionary theory of war ” L eaders are aware of the cohesive effects of external conflict and sometimes deliberately create or maintain external conflict to serve their internal purposes ‘The best way of preserving a state, and guaranteeing it against sedition, rebellion, and civil war is to…find an enemy against whom [the subjects] can make common cause’ - Bodin The political insecurity of elites, and their propensity to use military force abroad, greatest during periods before elections, during periods of poor economic performance, or at other times when domestic political support is low 16

17. Theories of causes of War- Cont … Individual-level theories – assume that External and internal structures and social forces are not translated directly into FP choices Key decision-makers vary in their definitions of state interests, assessments of threats to those interests, and/or beliefs as to the optimum strategies to achieve those interests Differences in the content of actors' belief systems, in the psychological processes through which they acquire information and make judgments and decisions, and in their personalities and emotional states are important intervening variables in explaining observed variation in state behaviors with respect to issues of war and peace 17

18. Case-study approaches to causes of War Immediate and Underlying causes Proximate causes vs the Fundamental causes Underlying causes emphasizes the importance of international circumstances rather than deliberate state policies in causing wars Statesmen not always in control of events and sometimes find themselves pushed to war Background conditions not always reliable barometer of danger of war 18

19. Case-study approaches- Cont … Efficient and Permissive causes Efficient causes are connected to particular circumstances surrounding individual wars- eg efficient cause of 1990 Iraqi-Western Allies war was Saddam’s desire to acquire Kuwait territory and resources Permissive causes are the features of international system which while not actively permitting war nevertheless allow it to open Waltz- wars arise not from defects in human behavior or inherent flaws in states but from the predicament in which leaders find themselves- In face of systemic weakness war cannot be avoided forever (Deer Hunt analogy) 19

20. Case-study approaches- Cont … Necessary and Sufficient causes Necessary causes must be present if war is to occur Existence of armaments Human beings must be organized in discreet collectives- states, tribes, nation etc No effective mechanism for prevention Sufficient cause is one which if present guarantees occurrence of war Eg - Hatred between countries that can’t tolerate each other’s existence Sufficient causes are not essentially necessary causes A cause may be necessary but not sufficient eg existence of high levels of armaments does no always lead to war 20

21. Human nature explanations of War A distinguishing feature btw humans and animals is that most of human behaviour is learned not instinctive Nature (heredity) vs nurture (environment) debates Questions as to whether war is learned or innate- if innate we must live with it - if learned, then it can be unlearned Liberalists favor nurture while realists are skeptical about possibility of ending wars but all agree humans don’t start on a clean slate 21

22. Human nature explanations – Cont … ‘Frustration’ explanations of wars Social psychologists offer explanations that rely less on instinct and more on socially programmed human behavior Aggression is a result of frustration Frustration/Aggression hypothesis emphasizes connection between violence and failure of human beings to achieve their objectives Individuals project their frustrated desires and ambitions on those who cause frustration or on innocents who become scapegoat s 22

23. Human nature explanations – Cont … ‘ Misperception’ explanations of wars Wars occur because politicians decide to wage them and these decisions are often the result of misperception, misunderstanding , miscalculation and errors of judgment Wars are mistakes caused more by human frailty than malice Misperceptions likely to lead to war include mistaken estimates of enemy intentions and capabilities, inaccurate assessment of military balance btw adversaries and failures to judge risks and consequences 23

24. Human nature explanations – Cont … ‘Misperception’ explanations of wars If wars are created by cognitive biases are wars avoidable if better communication , education and diplomacy are enhanced ? Not possible to eradicate misperceptions in human beings given inherent cognitive weaknesses in human mind Inability to empathize, need to simplify, tendencies for ethnocentrism, reluctance to recognize or relinquish prejudices Not all wars are caused by misperceptions some are rooted in genuine conflicting interests 24

25. Human nature explanations – Cont … Conscious and unconscious motives of wars Discrepancy btw explanations given by philosophers and scientists and those by practitioners lend credence to conscious and unconscious motives Political leaders hold a Clausewitzian instrumental view of war- that war is a rational tool of policy War results from calculated purposive and conscious decision Philosophers and scientists try to look behind leaders goal-oriented acts and suggest that war results from unconscious drives and weaknesses in human psyche 25

26. Human nature explanations – Cont … ‘Group’ explanations of wars War is a group activity waged by human collectives- tribes, states Shifts responsibility of war from human beings to the group in which they live in and owe allegiance Nothing wrong with human beings, they are corrupted by the social structures in which they live Friedrich Nietzche – ’Madness is the exception in individuals but the rule in groups ’ Any time people make a distinction btw those who belong to their own collective group and other groups with which they cannot identify with easily, the foundation of conflict is laid 26

27. Human nature explanations – Cont … ‘Group’ explanations of wars G Le Bon developed idea of ‘crowd’ or ‘mob’ psychology when he noticed that the behaviour of individuals in social groups is different and worse than behaviour of the individuals comprising them In groups individuals lose normal restraints, are more suggestible, more emotional and less rational Groups have reduced feelings of responsibility therefore blame cannot be allocated specifically and frees human collectives from normal moral constraints Eric Hoffer – ‘When we lose our individual independence in the corporateness of mass movement we find a new freedom – to hate, bully, torture, murder and betray without shame or remorse ’ 27

28. Human nature explanations – Cont … ‘Group’ explanations of wars Are some groups more war prone than others? Capitalist, socialist societies- which is more warlike ? Are democratic societies more peace loving than authoritarian states? Liberal states more peacefully inclined because governments are more constrained by democratic institutions and commercial interdependence gives them vested interest in peace 28

29. Contemporary dynamics of War Interstate wars seems less of a problem in modern world Intra-state wars particularly ethnic increasingly a problem Ethnic wars – people brutalized and killed not for what they may have done or because of politics but because of who they are Ethnic wars are different from Clausewitzian politically motivated conflicts conducted based on legal and moral rules 29

30. Contemporary dynamics- Cont … Ethnic wars are about malevolence and are unrestrained by legal or moral rules Ethnic wars due to failure of modern states to separate warring factions Samuel Huntington- Clash of Civilization- future wars may be btw civilizations rather than state or ethnic groups Western values are being challenged and there is resurgence of religion and fundamentalism that has widened gulf between people Globalization and communication revolution serve to make people more aware of differences 30

31. War and the law Jus ad bellum governs and seeks to limit resort to armed force in the conduct of IR Jus in bello often split into divisions of ‘Geneva’ and ‘Hague’ law governs and seeks to moderate actual conduct of hostilities Why is international law held in such low regard? 31

32. Q & A 32