The 7 Key Trends That Will Impact Your Strategic Planning

The 7 Key Trends That Will Impact
Your Strategic Planning

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The 7 Key Trends That Will Impact
Your Strategic Planning
Marty Resnick
VP Analyst

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“Difficult to see. Always in motion is
the future.”
Master Yoda

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Disruption Is Everywhere

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Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/00/IMG_2124_Everest.jpg/316px-IMG_2124_Everest.jpg
Think Long Term but Don’t Ignore the Storm

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Balance
Tyranny of the Possible
•Innovative ideas get
constrained
•“We would never do that”
•“That will never happen”
•“That’s only in science fiction”
Art of the Possible
•Anything is Possible
•No Limits
•Innovative and creative
mindset

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Reach Beyond Technology
Technology
Politics
Economics
Social/Cultural
Trust/Ethics
Regulatory/Legal
Environmental

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The Monday Problem

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AccelerateAnticipate Advocate

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Anticipate
•Address Future Uncertainties
•Extend Time Horizons for
Planning
•Make Predictions and Build
Scenarios

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Advocate
•Make More Informed
Decisions
•Assess Opportunities and
Risks
•Optimize Corporate
Investment Strategies

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Accelerate
•Accelerate Innovation
•Future-test strategies
•Action. The future is impacting
the present.

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The Future World Will Begin to Emerge from Tapestry
and Disruptions

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Complexity, Chaos and Confidence Across Brave New Worlds

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Technological
•Generative AI
•Composable Applications
•Digital Immune systems
•Platform Engineering
•Metaverse
•Adaptive AI
Political
•National Self-Sufficiency
•Shifting International Order
•Multipolarity
•Malinformation
Economic
•Energy —The Big Squeeze
•Demise of Demographic Dynanism
•Digitally Dominant Productivity
•Industrialization of Space
•Expanding Digital Economy
Social/Cultural
•Future of Work Reinvented
•Community-Enforced Accountability
•Digitally Enriched vs. Digitally Deprived
•Institutions Shaped by People
•Algorithm Hacking
•Population Mobility
Trust/Ethics
•AI-Amplified Outcomes
•Global Institutional Trust Transformation
•The Purpose-Driven Organization
•Volatility of Information Validation
•Contextual Privacy in Digital
Society
Regulatory/
Legal
•Expansion of National Security
Regulation
•Diverging Digital Strategies of
Regulation
•Rise of Corporate Climate Liability
Environmental
•Renewable Distributed Energy
Resources
•Digital Sustainability
•Circular Economy
•Climate Adaptation:
ResilientInfrastructure,Ecosyste
msand Business
Key Trends Across Brave New Worlds for Strategic Planning

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Generative AIrefers to AI
techniques that learn a
representation of artifacts from
data and use it to generate new
artifacts thatappear similarto the
original data.
Generative AI can produce totally
novel media content (including
text, image, video and audio),
synthetic data, and models of
physical objects, such as drugs,
materials andparts.
1. Generative AI

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Anticipate Generative AI
•By 2026, generative AI
code generation
models will halve the
amount of code written
by developers/humans.
•By 2025, synthetic data
will reduce the
collection of personal
customer data,
avoiding 70% of privacy
violation sanctions.

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•Deepfakes
•Trust and
Transparency
•Widely
Available
Advocate Generative AI
•Accelerating
Hype
•Rapid
Progress
•Broad Use
Cases
•Creating and
Improving
Content
•Augments
Content
Creators
•Benefits of
Synthetic
Data

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Accelerate Generative AI
•Begin using generative AI for content creation and code generation.
•Determine how synthetically generated data could speed the
analytics development cycle, lessen regulatory concerns, help
monetize data and lower the cost of data acquisition.​
•Prepare to mitigate the impact of deepfakes, which can cause serious
disinformation and reputational risk.
•Investigate how generative AI techniques benefit your industry or
sector

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2. National Self-Sufficiency
National Self-Sufficiencyis
defined as governments
attempting to improve domestic
capabilities and supplies in key
sectors —military, healthcare,
technology, food and agriculture,
energy, and manufacturing —in
which the private sector may find
new domestic opportunities with
sustained periods of high demand
as parallel initiatives across the
globe compete.

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Anticipate National Self-Sufficiency
•By 2025,50% of
economies will have
shifted investments from
renewables to traditional
energy.
•By 2030, 66% of national
self-sufficiency agendas
will morph into regional
self-
sufficiencycollaboration
within blocs.

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•Excess
Manufacturing
Capacity
•Stifles
Innovation
•Export
Restrictions
Advocate National Self-Sufficiency
•Less
Competitive
•Highly
Specialized
Offerings
•Availability of
Imports
•Subsidies
•Altered
Competitive
Landscape

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Accelerate National Self-Sufficiency
•Shift strategic emphasis from global to domestic markets.
•Keep close ties withpolicymakers and national interest groups
toidentify earlyinfrastructure and industrial incentives.
•Create visibility into supply chains to understand critical
dependencies beyond national sources.
•Prepare risk response strategies early to move supply chains on-or
“nearshore”for critical materials and supplies.

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Energy —the big squeezeis highly correlated with
economic growth.
1
Yet we seekto grow our economies
just as our consumption of—and access to energy —is
declining.That trend is notsustainableif our economic
growth goals are to be met.
Economic growth will stagnate or fallif public policy only
focuses on forcing change to meet climate goals and
does not include how to help the wider market innovate
with new sources of energy to meet greater energy per
capita, or productivity for given energy sources.
3. Energy –The Big Squeeze

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Anticipate Energy –The Big Squeeze
•By 2027,90% of electric
vehicle (EV) charging
stations will be
unnecessary and
defunct as energy
supply is insufficient.
•By 2027, 25% of
vehicles that take off
will go into space, not
just land at an airport
on Earth, as energyis
sufficiently supplied.

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•Penalties for
Behavior
•Rewarding
Innovation
•Increasing
Costs
•Energy
Evolution
Advocate Energy –The Big Squeeze
•Climate Policy
•Energy Sector
Innovation
•Government
Investments
•Cost of Energy
•Public Policy
•Uneven Energy
Reserves
•Centrally
Planned
Energy Market

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Accelerate Energy –The Big Squeeze
•Watch public-sector energy policy and energy lobbyists’ focus and
invest accordingly should these offer opportunities for your business.
•Seek productivity-inducing investment to drive greater energy yield, to
help service economic growth demands.
•Hedge your bets by using diverse energy sources.

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The future of work reinvented is
human-centric, combining flexible
work experiences, intentional
collaboration and empathy-based
management. Organizations
mustcontinually adapt work models
to meld human-centric design with
emerging technologies,such as
generative AI tools like ChatGPT.
4. Future of Work Reinvented

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Anticipate Future of Work Reinvented
•By 2025, “labor
volatility” will cause
40% of organizations to
report a material
business loss, forcing a
shift in talent strategy
from acquisition
to resilience.
•Through 2025,
employee value metrics
like well-being,
burnout, and brand
satisfaction will
override ROI
evaluations.

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•Reactive
Management
•Talent
Acquisition vs
Talent
Resilience
and Agility
•Digital
Dexterity
Advocate Future of Work Reinvented
•Competition
•Worker
Autonomy
•Employee
Innovation
•Virtual Work
•Open-Talent
•High Turnover
•Institutional
Knowledge
•Automation
•Asynchronous
Work Models

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Accelerate Future of Work Reinvented
•Develop human-centric work models.
•Facilitate virtual and hybrid work to access desirable skill sets and
more diverse talent pools.
•Adapt a skills-based talent approach.
•Harness AI and automation to remove drudge work, augment workers
and drive productivity.

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Our means of remediating the effects
of AI-amplified outcomesare set to
follow suit, and rapidlyexpand and
evolve, which allows us to apply or
reinforce the desired ethical standard
or adjust technology amplification into
adesired direction.
5. AI-Amplified Outcomes

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Anticipate AI-Amplified Outcomes
•By 2027, most
countries will have
regulationsfor the use
of technology that
isexplainable
andincludes
embeddedbias
amplification controls.
•Before 2026, “prompt
engineers,” a technical
position aimed
atcrafting prompts to
obtain desired outputs
from AI modelswillbe
functions that are
globally acknowledged
and populated.

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•Ambiguity
•Privacy
Concerns
•Ethical
Sourcing of
Data
Advocate AI-Amplified Outcomes
•Ethical
Development
•Bias
Detection
•Educating
and
Consulting
•Customer
Loyalty
•Explainability
•Slower Pace

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Accelerate AI-Amplified Outcomes
•Increase transparency and structured communication of data sources
and processes.
•Introducenew policies and practices to ensure that AI systems are
trained on data and incorporate diversity and inclusion.
•Createnew roles or teams responsible for amplifying consensus
building that acknowledges the challenges when optimizing for
interaction betweenAI models and human employees.

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Our means of remediating the effects
of AI-amplified outcomesare set to
follow suit, and rapidlyexpand and
evolve, which allows us to apply or
reinforce the desired ethical standard
or adjust technology amplification into
adesired direction.
5. AI-Amplified Outcomes

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Anticipate AI-Amplified Outcomes
•By 2027, most
countries will have
regulationsfor the use
of technology that
isexplainable
andincludes
embeddedbias
amplification controls.
•Before 2026, “prompt
engineers,” a technical
position aimed
atcrafting prompts to
obtain desired outputs
from AI modelswillbe
functions that are
globally acknowledged
and populated.

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•Ambiguity
•Privacy
Concerns
•Ethical
Sourcing of
Data
Advocate AI-Amplified Outcomes
•Ethical
Development
•Bias
Detection
•Educating
and
Consulting
•Customer
Loyalty
•Explainability
•Slower Pace

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Accelerate AI-Amplified Outcomes
•Increase transparency and structured communication of data sources
and processes.
•Introducenew policies and practices to ensure that AI systems are
trained on data and incorporate diversity and inclusion.
•Createnew roles or teams responsible for amplifying consensus
building that acknowledges the challenges when optimizing for
interaction betweenAI models and human employees.

47. 47© 2023 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates.
Expansion of national security
regulationrefers to two intertwined
movements reshaping global trade:
(1) expanding definitions of natural
security to account for data,
algorithms and supply chains, and (2)
increased and explicit industrial policy
competition between economic
regions for the “industries of the
future.” While neither phenomenon is
new, they are accelerating and supply
the regulatory underpinnings for
economicnationalism.
6. Expansion of National Security
Regulation

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Anticipate Expansion of National Security
Regulation
•By 2025, the cost of
global corporate
compliance will
significantly increase
regulatory barriers to
enter nondomestic or
nonaligned markets.
•.
•By 2030, half of
previously global value
chains will be
reoriented asnational
or regional chains.

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•Competition
•Complexity
•Reputational
Risk
•Political Risk
Advocate Expansion of National Security
Regulation
•Efficiently
Scale
•Subsidy
Benefits
•Government
Spending
•Compliance
Cost
•Less
Predictable
•Reshaping
Global Supply
Chains

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Accelerate Expansion of National Security
Regulation
•Assess your regulatory tracking and government affairs capabilities.
•Facilitate a discussion with senior executives about the organization’s
regulatory compliance strategy.
•Incorporate political risk and compliance costs.
•Work with procurement, supply chain and other relevant functions to
review current processes for monitoring country of origin regulations,
global compliance and risk to business continuity.

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Distributed energy resources
(DERs)are small-scale energy
resources often located near where
electricity is used. They reduce the
cost for maintaining system balancing
and electric grid reliability, mitigate
the congestion of availability and
investment across the grid (such as in
HVAC or thermal storage), and allow
energy consumers to create less
expensiveenergy and build energy
resilience.
7. Distributed Energy Resources

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Anticipate Distributed Energy Resources
•By 2030, DERs will
substantially accelerate
the deployment of
renewable resources by
utilities, communities
and investors.
•.
•By 2030, nontraditional
energy distribution
solutions will be the
most cost-effective way
of scaling renewable
energy generating
capacity.

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•Lack of
Utilization
Data
•Stress Points
•Privacy
Concerns
Advocate Distributed Energy Resources
•Address
Peaks in
Demand
•Reduce
Investments
•Revenue
Generation
•Joint
Investment
•Energy
Resiliency
•Enhanced
Reputation

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Accelerate Distributed Energy Resources
•Utilities should consider DERs as active energy market participants.
•Help customers monetize their DERs
•Enterprises should Improve energy efficiency and conservation by
choosing the amount of energy required from renewable sources.
•should evaluate incorporating the use of DERs to bolster low-
carbonenergy strategies.

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Now Published
Maverick Stories:

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Recommendations
Avoid the Monday problem.
Create (or join) a futurist capability within your organization.
Expand your focus beyondjust technology.
Start with today and anticipateplausible futures.
Advocatefor tomorrow and influence the future you want to see.
Acceleratechange and innovation by acting now.
Use techniques like science fiction prototyping to imagine the impact
trends will have on your strategy.

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