The Challenges faced by Taliban regime .pptx

AbdulNasirNichari 13 views 90 slides Aug 01, 2024
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About This Presentation

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Slide Content

The Challenges faced by Taliban Regime( the latest version ) Irfan Waheed Usmani

Outline Introduction (I)Humanitarian Crisis (2)Economic woes/ meltdown (3) The Challenge of Settlement of Internally Displaced Persons (4)International Isolation/ Issue of Recognition of Taliban (5)Growing Influence of non-state actors (6)The Breakdown of serving Public Service Delivery mechanism (7)Political Instability (8) These challenges may be further compounded if Taliban fail to tackle these issues

Introduction: simple Journalistic introduction The biggest challenge faced by the Taliban government is the humanitarian crisis Briefly allude to the dimensions of the Crisis Factor that has further compounded the crisis How could the situation spiral out of control? Suspended judgement Health crisis Health Financing Crisis Food Insecurity Poverty The suspension aid to Afghanistan by US its allies and donor agencies The scarier scenario that is being drawn? The limitations of the efforts

Introduction: anecdotal beginning(copy)

Humanitarian Crisis UN Report Warning by WHO’s Head World Food Programme's Report The Statement of the UN Secretary General UNDP’s report UNFPA

Humanitarian Crisis Health Crisis Health financing Crisis Food Insecurity Poverty Host of Other Factors that have Compounded the dilemma

Humanitarian Crisis (I) Health Crisis (II) Health financing Crisis (III) Food Insecurity (IV) Poverty Host of Other Factors that have Compounded the dilemma

Health Crisis(I) Afghanistan’s health care system has reached on the verge of collapse It took two decade to build/ develop Afghanistan’s Health care system: see the next slide

It took two decade to build/ develop Afghanistan’s Health care(I) The State/ Condition of Afghanistan’s health care system in 2001 Afghanistan's Health Care system when Taliban took overpower Health Facilities: 450 Health facilities: 3, 678 The influx of 30,000 health wo0rkers in recent years The percentage of population which had access to health services on foot: 9 percent The percentage of population which had access to health services on foot: 93 percent ( due to the influx of thousand s of health workers)

It took two decade to build/ develop Afghanistan’s Health care(II) Evidence confirms, for example, that whereas in 2002 for every 100,000 live births, 1,600 Afghan mothers died, the maternal mortality rate has come down to 638 (more than a 60pc decrease). Likewise, between 2002 and 2018, the infant mortality rate came down from 257 to 62 (a four-fold decrease); the under-five mortality rate dropped from 161 to 48 (more than a three-fold decrease.) Two decades ago, only 33pc of children were receiving the DPT3 vaccine — a primary indicator of protection from childhood diseases — which increased to 70pc last year.

Before the take over around 65,000 caesarian section were being performed annually in these facilities and 520 major surgeries were conducted on daily basis– HALF OF THEM EMERGENCY OPERATIONS..

Afghanistan's Health crisis has put the country’s Sehatmandi Programme which was the backbone of Afghanistan's health care system in jeopardy Brief Insights into the kind of facilities the programme provided to the people

Brief Insights into the kind of facilities the programme provided to the people

(II) Health Financing Crisis Reason’s The disastrous fall out/ mischievous potentials of Afghanistan’s Health Financing Crisis for the country’s Health Care system What could happen/ be the situation if the Crises is not addressed?

Reason’s The world bank has frozen its funding of Sehatmandi Programme and most other donors have followed. The way in which US, EU and other donor agencies have used the suspension of economic aid to Taliban to coerce them into submission Hence, 2,400 World bank-funded health facilities have run out of supplies, essential medicine, fuel and oxygen. See the next slide

The way in which US, EU and other donor agencies have used the suspension of economic aid to Taliban to coerce them into submission

The disastrous fall out/ mischievous potentials of Afghanistan’s Health Financing Crisis for the country’s Health Care system The government would find it difficult to keep 2,400 world bank-funded health facilities in functional conditions/ The waring of WHO’s representative in Afghanistan ( January 2022): he warned about the mischievous potential of the funding pause by key donors of the country’s biggest health programme: “ as a result more mothers , infants ,and children will die with reduced access to essential health care”… “the closure of health facilities”, on account of funding constraints would have “disastrous consequences for the country…. Will cause majority of the public health facilities to close”, The waring of WHO’s representative in Afghanistan

What could happen/ be the situation if the Crises are not addressed? If these health financing crises are not addressed immediately, Afghanistan’s health sector will virtually collapse, jeopardizing health gains and health care. Who will suffer the most? Like always, the most vulnerable- WOMEN, CHILDERN, THE INJURED, AND THE POOR- will suffer the most. Zafar Mirza The apprehensions about the outbreak of vaccine-preventable disease : With only one polio case reported this year in Afghanistan, and in Pakistan, we seem to be on the verge of finally eradicating this disease not only from our countries but also the world. But these conditions may undo progress and quickly lead to a burst of new polio cases — the dream of a polio-free world may not be realised for several years. There are 10 other vaccine-preventable diseases. The campaigin against these diseases is likely to suffer badly. ( Zafar Mirza…)

The disastrous consequences of Interruption in Sehatmandi Programme on the other health services ( copy card)

(III) Food Insecurity Facts and Figures Another Indication of Growing Food Crisis World Food Programme's (WFP) warning The Efforts made/ undertaken by International Bodes/ Institutions like WFP and WHO to tackle food Crisis The Limitations of the Efforts

(III) Food Insecurity: Facts and Figures The percentage of Afghan population which was food insecure before the Taliban take-over The percentage of Afghan population which was food insecure after the Taliban take-over 30 percent… The last week of October 2021: over 50 percent It could reach 90 percent by 2022 as per the UN..

Another Indication of Growing Food Crisis This is a country where only 5 percent of people have enough food to survive accruing to the reports, “Editorial: Hunger in Afghanistan”, Dawn, 28 October 2021

World Food Programme's (WFP) warning: October 2021: (Copy card)

The Efforts of to address the issue of Food Insecurity WHO WFP UN

The Limitations of the Efforts: WFP “ the sum of money pledged to provide food to the hungry, amounted to ‘ a drop in ocean’”, cited in Dawn’s editorial, Afghanistan need as much as $ 220 million per month to help stave off death due to hunger”,

The Efforts made/ undertaken by International Bodes/ Institutions like WFP and WHO to tackle food Crisis ( not required here) WFP’s Efforts The WHO’s Efforts Holding of donor’s conference in se4ptember 2021: what the Conference pledged S See the next three slides

The Limitations of the Efforts The UN’s goal to raise $ 4.4 bn to address the debilitating humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has fallen short by nearly $ 2 bn, Syed Mohammad Ali, “Afghanistan’s Decade of loss”, The ET, 8 April 2022.

The UN Report

Poverty : the three cards to be copied = OUTLINE

The Kind of Interventions Needed to save Afghanistan’s Health care system from total Collapse: More funds are needed to urgently fill remaining gaps and to support the country’s health care system in sustaining delivery of essential services, Luo Dapeng (WHO’s representative)

Solutions of Humanitarian Challenges/ Crisis Faced by Taliban(I): ( From Nadeem Jan’s Article) Firstly, Secondly Thirdly, Fourthly, a political-cum-humanitarian entente with Taliban and other stakeholders-especially Pakistan, China, Qatar, Tajikistan, Iran, US, Russia and Uzbekistan-will be required to allow humanitarian aid organisations to operate . The Taliban have stated that they welcome assistance and foreign organisations may continue to operate so long as they respect Islamic enshrines. food, fuel, medicines, shelter and other basic requirements need to be staged for delivery right away… The efficient logistics of assembling and managing a large-scale relief operation is a time- and labour-intensive effort. It would require cooperation among neighbouring countries, Afghan authorities, and relief organizations. t here ought to be adequate financing commitment and disbursement to maintain the humanitarian aid “spigot.” EU generous commitment of 2 billion euros is the right step in the right direction . In addition, the US should enact a humanitarian waiver to Executive Order 13224, of 2002 that authorises the US government to designate and block assets of suspected terrorist individuals and entities. This assurance will likely encourage humanitarian organisations to continue their on-the-ground operations. Critical to financing a relief operation is finding a way to salvage the Afghan banking sector, which underpins legal economic activities, as well as potential relief operations. Furthermore, ensuring the regular flow of imports will be paramount given Afghanistan’s dependence on outside resources. respect for basic human rights, access to health, education and equal employment/ business opportunities be enshrined in the bilateral MoU, between- Taliban & humanitarian actors- that could ensure ample security, access and facilitation of humanitarian operations and health/aid workers.

Solutions of Humanitarian Challenges/ Crisis Faced by Taliban(I): Role of Pakistan Pakistan is in a unique position to persuade the international community to provide the necessary humanitarian aid to meet the scale of the disaster facing the Afghan people and do it pretty well. So far, Pakistan has played a commendable role in facilitating emergency evacuation , transit visas and accommodation for stranded passengers, provision of food, non-food and medicines supply and continued advocacy by civil and military leadership for averting a humanitarian crisis. Pakistan is better-placed to establish a “corridors of humanitarian assistance” in coordination with other like-minded actors. This could be utilised for the continuation of education, health care, food, shelter and social development activities for Afghanis.

Conclusion Politicising humanitarian access and assistance could jeopardize life-saving programs which in turn would put Afghanistan and the region in the vicious cycle of perpetual agonies, which no one can afford. Meeting humanitarian needs is a strategic and moral imperative and history would judge us by our intent and actions when it was most needed.

(III) Poverty The incidence of Poverty before the Corona Virus Pandemic; 54.5 percent of population lived below poverty line.. Estimates by the last week of October 2021: 72 percent Ashraf Ghani's statement in 2020 about the prevalence of poverty in Afghanistan : 90 percent of population was living on less than $ 2 a day.

Host of Other Factors that have Compounded the dilemma Liquidity Crunch ( reasons) Famine Crop failure Consequences / fall outs How has it aggravated human dilemma? 40 PERCENT CROP FAILUURE How has suspension of aid compounded the dilemma of Afghanistan?

The catastrophic impact of the Crisis ( to be placed later) The increasing impoverishment of the people of Afghanistan: the kind of incidents that have begun to occur The people have reduced spending out of fear and what are its disastrous fall outs/ consequences ; WITHHOLDING CASH; further dampen economic activities The Crisis of payment of salaries : July –Sep. The growing food price inflation What could be the scarier scenario? : UNDP’s prediction Card)

What could be the scarier scenario? : UNDP’s prediction Card)

What could be the scarier scenario? Card copy p. 30 register

The Efforts to overcome/ address humanitarian crisis?/ dilemma (NR)

The Efforts made/ undertaken by International Bodes/ Institutions like WFP and WHO to tackle Humanitarian Crisis WFP’s Efforts The WHO’s Efforts (I) Holding of donor’s conference in se4ptember 2021: what the Conference pledged S 1 bn in humanitarian assistance– a third of which was to go the WFP It is urgently calling for international donors to set up and find an alternative funding mechanism for crucial primary health care initiative ( see the next slide)

The Who’s Efforts(II)

The Who’s Efforts(III)

The Who’s Efforts(IV)

The Limitations of the Efforts The UN’s goal to raise $ 4.4 bn to address the debilitating humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has fallen short by nearly $ 2 bn, Syed Mohammad Ali, “Afghanistan’s Decade of loss”, The ET, 8 April 2022.

How to resolve ?address the Crisis?

Warning by WHO’s Head

World Food Programme's Report

The Statement of the UN Secretary General

UNDP’s report

UNFPA

(2) Economic woes/ meltdown Reasons Manifestations/ repercussions IMF’s Forecast/ Prediction about the Contraction of Afghan Economy How the dysfunctionality of Afghanistan's financial and Banking system could exacerbate the economic woes of the people of Afghanistan

Reasons (I) One can trace the reason as far back as 2014 (II) Sudden cessation of foreign aid has caused economic melt down to plummet (III) The Dysfunctionality of Afghanistan’s financial system Substantial decease in foreign aid brought down the growth rate to 2 percent. See the next slid

The way in which US, EU and other donor agencies have used the suspension of economic aid to Taliban to coerce them into submission

The Dysfunctionality of Afghanistan's Financial and Banking System The entire financial system of the country is dysfunctional. Afghanistan’s financial and bank payment systems are in disarray. The Growing concern of UNDP: bank-run problem must be resolved quickly… The world need to think ‘out of box’ to save the system.. The situation has further been aggravated by war and drought..

Manifestations/ repercussions (I) (I) Liquidity crunch and its fallouts (II) Rising food price inflation (III) What UNDP’s report on Afghan economy highlighted/ pointed out With no cash in market; How do the economist relate the economists relate the scenario? The classic example of liquidity trap. There is no cash flow in formal sector and people have begun hoarding the cash. Low cash deposits would further reduce people’s ability to repay their loans The prices of day-to-day necessities including food have gone out of reach of ordinary people. The local economy is “imploding”..

(3) The Challenge of Settlement of Internally Displaced Persons Reasons The Growing Intensity of the Crisis

(3) Poverty

Reasons (I) Political Strife and war (II) Economic melt down

The Growing Intensity of the Crisis: copy the card: p.38

This situation is likey

IMF’s Forecast/ Prediction about the Contraction of Afghan Economy (copy the card p.39)

(4) International Isolation/ Issue of Recognition of Taliban Its main reasons Its fallouts/ mischievous potential

Its main reasons (I) Trust deficit between the West and Taliban (II) The pressurizing tactics of US West to coerce Taliban into submission (II) The own actions of Taliban have failed to instill confidence of US and west Apprehensions that Taliban would turn Afghanistan in to a “rouge” or “Pariah” state. The bitter memories of the rule of the first Taliban regime Example: see the next slide Examples: (I) the very composition of the Taliban regime: hard core elements; (II) non- incusing of women in government; (III) restrictions of girls education

The way in which US, EU and other donor agencies have The The coerce them into submission

(5) Growing Influence of non-state actors (I) Al- Qeada (II) The IS—Khurasan chapter The percentage of territory that it controls in eastern Afghanistan Their increasing animosity towards Taliban What is being further apprehended?

ISIS Khorasan Chapter is another gigantic challenge for the Taliban government to repel. This lethal terrorist group, comprising more than 5000 fighters, emerged in 2015 from the disgruntled members of both Taliban and Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. ISIS-K had acquired control of the larger part of Eastern Afghanistan in 2016, debilitating the Taliban’s position in those areas; therefore, this faction will keep posing threats to Taliban even after they are in power. After a few days of the Taliban takeover of Kabul, horrific bombings at Kabul airport were carried out by ISIS-K, claiming no fewer than 177 casualties. The Taliban should not underestimate the deep rooted network of this militant outfit, and rather they should be focused on dismantling ISIS-K for the smooth functioning of their government.

(6)The Breakdown of serving Public Service Delivery mechanism Reasons Manifestations

Reasons (I) The Crisis of Governance (II) Taliban are overstretched (III)Brain drain Manish rai, “Tough road ahead for Taliban”, DT, 14 October 2021

Host of Other factors (I) How are they able to moderate themselves? (II) Their policy towards women (III) Their policy towards non- Pustuns Inclusion of moderate elements

Manifestations

(7) Political Instability See the point from Manish rai’s article Growing resistance

These challenges may be further compounded if Taliban fail to tackle these issues The failure of Taliban to assert their authority Their reluctance to establish more inclusive government Their Inability to moderate themselves

The way in which US, EU and other donor agencies have The The coerce them into submission

The catastrophic impact of the Crisis The increasing impoverishment of the people of Afghanistan: the kind of incidents that have begun to occur The people have reduced spending out of fear and what are its disastrous fall outs/ consequences ; WITHHOLDING CASH; further dampen economic activities The Crisis of payment of salaries : July –Sep. The growing food price inflation What could be the scarier scenario? : UNDP’s prediction Card)

Suggestions (I) What the West should realize? (II) What behooves on international community? What should international community do? (III) Taliban also need to change a lot internally. (IV) Efforts should be made to prevent economic implosion in Afghanistan (V) The perquisite condition for long term solution of Afghan crisis. (VII) The crucial role of women inclusion in addressing the challenges faced by Afghanistan. (VIII) Afghanistan should not be left in vacuum.. (IX) The role the OIC can play: its areas and dimensions (X) The resolution of Afghan quagmire requires holistic solutions

(I) What the West should realize?(copy) Taliban are a political reality, and the West should constructively engage with them. Taliban also represent an ideology and ideology cant be bombed. Taliban can not be coerced into submission only through use of force as the recourse to force will leave dire consequences for people of Afghanistan. Rather than isolating them, this might be a preferable alternative.

(II) What behooves on international community? What should international community do? The international community should separate the geopolitics and geostrategic stance from humanitarian and economic dimensions of Afghan quagmire. The international assistance groups should release aid with conditions imposed on Taliban

(III) Taliban also need to change a lot internally. Dimensions: they need to moderate themselves; shun their rigidity; more accommodative and receptive to participation of women. Follow more pragmatic foreign policy. Reasons:

(IV) Efforts should be made to prevent economic implosion/ collapse in Afghanistan What could be the mischievous potential of economic implosion: It would further exacerbate crisis and humanitarian dilemma instead of resolving it. The situation would spiral out of control if economic crisis is not resoloved .

(V) The perquisite condition for long term solution of Afghan crisis. The possibility of long-term solution is inextricably linked to the formation of government that is inclusive and multiethnic.

(VII) The crucial role of women inclusion in addressing the challenges faced by Afghanistan. Why is inclusion of women required or needed? The areas/ field in which women can contribute constructively Their inclusion is also required/needed to change the image of Taliban before the west To address the issue of underdevelopment and poverty. Insights into the nature of Afghan economy. What could the hazardous fallouts if women are not included? Education Health care Health workforce

(VIII) Afghanistan should not be left in vacuum. The deployment of peacekeeping troops of Islamic countries. Going further a mechanism for monitoring the compliance of the Taliban’s repeated pledges to prevent the use of Afghan territory by any terrorist entity need to be established. An option might be a United Nations peacekeeping mission, with forces drawn from Muslim majority states. Another one could be an unarmed multilateral observation group modelled on the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine.

(IX) The role the OIC can play: its areas and dimensions (I) Humanitarian assistance (II) To exert moderating influence on Taliban (III) It can act as a bridge between Taliban and west (IV) (V) a mechanism for monitoring the compliance of the Taliban’s repeated pledges Fund raising In establishing “corridors of humanitarian assistance” An option might be a United Nations peacekeeping mission, with forces drawn from Muslim majority states

(X) The resolution of Afghan quagmire requires holistic solutions No country can solve these issues on its own and require regional, global connectivity, continued diplomatic efforts and decisions above one’s comfort bubble. The fate of fate of Afghanistan should be left to their own accord. More inconsonance with the norms of conflict resolution and conflict management.