The Demography of London: An Update

London's population growth is projected to be large over the coming years. This presentations outlines some of the latest statistics and discusses implications particularly for housing.

1. Update on the Demography of London
LSE Lent Seminar Series 2013
4th March 2013
Ms Baljit Bains

2. Outline
Update on Demographic trends in London
Outline of current estimates and projections
2011 Census Snapshot

3. London Births 1965 to 2010
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
19651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
Year
B
ir
t
h
s

4. Fertility rates 2000/2 to 2008/10
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
1
5

a
n
d

u
n
d
e
r
1
7
1
9
2
1
2
3
2
5
2
7
2
9
3
1
3
3
3
5
3
7
3
9
4
1
4
3
4
5
4
7
4
9

a
n
d

o
v
e
r
Age
F
e
r
t
i
l
i
t
y

r
a
t
e
2000-02
2008-10

5. Top boroughs – birth increase/decrease
Top 3 boroughs (% increase):
–Croydon: 7.0% or 371 births
–Southwark: 6.8% or 329 births
–Brent: 6.1% or 310 births
Top 3 boroughs (% decrease):
–Richmond upon Thames: -2.9% or -88 births
–Hackney: -2.1% or -95 births
–Camden: -1.7% or -53 births

6. London: Internal migration

7. UK: International migration

8. NINo registrations: Bulgaria and
Romania

9. Population Estimates and Projections
ONS projections released over the last two years has
led to significant upwards revisions of projected future
populations.
1) Changes to international migration methodology
ONS 2010 Based Sub National Population Projections
(SNPP)
2) 2011 Census population – 8.17 million
ONS 2011 Based Interim SNPP
2011 Census Average Household Size increase

10. Estimates and Projections 2001-2011
7,000
7,100
7,200
7,300
7,400
7,500
7,600
7,700
7,800
7,900
8,000
8,100
8,200
8,300
8,400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
T
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
Year
P
o
p
u
la
t
io
n
2008-based SNPP
GLA 2011rnd SHLAA
Indicative MYE/2010-based SNPP
Official MYE

11. 2012 Round demographic projections:
Greater London
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
Year
T
o
t
a
l

p
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
ONS 2008 based SNPP (w MYE to 2008)
ONS 2010 based SNPP (w Indicative MYE 2006 to 2010)
ONS 2011 based SNPP
GLA 2011 round SHLAA
GLA 2012 round Trend
GLA 2012 round SHLAA

12. 2010 SNPP migration assumptions
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Age
N
u
m
b
e
r Out
In
Net

13. 2010 SNPP migration assumptions
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Age
N
u
m
b
e
r Out
In
Net
Cras
h

14. Where were the problems…..
–2001 Census enumeration
Likely underestimation of the London population and then
subsequent mid-year estimates (MYE). Any underestimate in the
2001 baseline that both ONS and the GLA utilised would have
carried through into subsequent years. The extent of the undercount
may prove impossible to estimate with any accuracy.

–Underestimation of international inflows
The methodology ONS used for assigning international in-migrants
between local authorities underestimated for London as a whole.
–Underestimation of average household size by government sources
Household formation rates from DCLG household projections
assumed declining average household size.

18. Forecasts: Out with the old…
Average Household Size future trends
–Rethink declining AHS trend particularly in the short term
More sophisticated trend based assumptions
–Rethink fertility scenarios
–Rethink migration scenarios

19. (Possible) household size scenarios
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Year
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d

S
i
z
e
Census
2011rnd projection
High
Medium
Low

20. (Possible) migration scenario
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
F
lo
w
Out
In
Net
Cras
h
Recovery

21. 2011 Census: London
Population: 8.17 million usual residents
Households: 3.27million, an increase of 8.3% since
2001.
Over 36% born outside the UK (cf 27% in 2001)
Four London boroughs where less than half
population is UK born
–Brent (44.9 per cent),
–Newham (46.3 per cent),
–Westminster (46.7 per cent) and
–Kensington & Chelsea (48.4 per cent)

22. Country of Birth

23. Migrants: Less than 2 years length of
stay (%)

24. Migrants: More than 10 years length of
stay (%)

25. Housing Tenure

26. Percentage change 2001 to 2011:
Owns with a mortgage or loan

27. Housing in London
In London between 2001 and 2011 the number of houses and
bungalows rose by 1.8 per cent (28,700) while the number of flats
increased by 18.6 per cent (277,500).
The number of dwellings in Tower Hamlets increased by nearly 33 % in
the same period 2001- 2011. The largest proportional increase in
London
London is by far the most over-crowded region in England & Wales with
11.6 per cent of households having too few bedrooms for their
occupants.
London Boroughs make up 19 of the top 20 most overcrowded local
authorities in England & Wales.
The highest being Newham (25.4 per cent), Brent (18 per cent) and
Tower Hamlets (16.8 per cent.

28. Religion

29. Languages in London
74 per cent of households in London contain occupants who all have
English as their main language, compared to 91 per cent nationally.
22.1 per cent of Londoners list a language other than English as their
main language, a total of 1.73 million people
41.6 per cent of non-English speakers in England & Wales live in
London
Polish is the main language of 147,800 of the capital’s residents
Bengali is the most spoken Asian language in London while Somali is
the most spoken African language
In Newham 41.4 per cent of residents report a language other than
English as their main language
In Havering just 4.6 per cent list a language other than English
9 of the top 10 most linguistically diverse local authorities in England &
Wales are in London

30. Main non-English Languages in London

31. Proportion of Households where English
is not the main language of occupants

32. Limiting Long-term Illness
Percentage Change 2001 - 2011

33. Next releases of Census data
Starting May 2013 - Detailed Characteristics
(multivariate) at local authority level, followed
by MSOA and Ward geographies,
Local Characteristics data will now be Release 4
(summer).
More details of the exact timings of these releases
are expected in April.

34. Follow up
http://data.london.gov.uk/census/secondrelease
Contact details:
email: [email protected]
Tel: [phone]