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1. Adaptasi Tanaman Terhadap
Perubahan Iklim
MAES
Aspek BP
TM 8

2. The challenges
•Food production
–Bagaimana mempertahankan dan
meningkatkan produksi tanamanvs climate
change.
–Bagaimana bertahan, penyesuaian dan
transformasi pertanian terhadapperubahan
iklim.

3. Gejala Perubahan Iklim terhadap Produksi
Beberapa Tanaman Pangan Dunia
Challinoret al. (2014), Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2153
JagungdanGandum
di daerahtropisdan
sub tropisterdampak
paling beratakibat
kenaikansuhumulai1
-2 derajadC.
Kerusakanakan
semakinberatpada
skenariokenaikan
suhusampai4
derajadC

4. Kumpulan riset dan data produksi tanaman
dalam sepuluh tahun terhadap perubahan
Iklim
AR5 Chap 7
“Climate change has negatively impacted
wheat and maize yields for many regions
and in the global aggregate ”
“For the major crops (wheat, rice and
maize) in tropical and temperate regions,
climate change without adaptation is
projected to negatively impact food
production for local temperature
increases of 2°C or more above late-
20
th
-century levels.
Penjelasan Fisiologis peningkatan suhu
akan meningkatkan metabolisme, akan
tetapi apabila disertai dengan stress air,
peningkatan suhu ini sering
menyebabkan gagalnya pembentukan
bunga, pengisian biji (secara umum
menyebabkan efek negative pada organ
reproduktif)
Menurunkan Produksi

5. Changes in the stability of food supply
Challinoret al. (2014), Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2153
prediksi stabilitas supply pangan mulai
dari tahun 2020 -2090
hanya Gandum yang diprediksi stabil
terhadap perubahan Iklim, karena
terpusat pada daerah temperate dengan
suhu dan perubahan iklim rendah

6. Trend kenaikan harga Pangan Dunia

7. Tropics vs temperate
•Tropics worse hit –affected sooner,and greater magnitude
of change(tidak hanya dari stress kenaikan suhu, tetapi juga
stress air, dan serangan hama penyakit)
•Increasingly inter-dependant food markets
•And increasingly homogenous diet, globallykarena sentra
produksi pangan yang terpusat (banyak daerah yg
mengalami stress lingkungan yang berat sehingga gagal
produksi)
•strong signal to intensify (menggantungkan ke intensifikasi)
•Affect developed country concept of “sustainability”?
•Food systems in the tropics harder to sustain (e.g.
production anomalies affect sustainability of enterprises)

8. Key messages, globally
•On average, climate change will
reduce food production
-Consistent with observed impacts
•Local vs global sustainability
-Fokus pada sumber pangan global
-atau lokal resiliency (mengembangkan adaptasi lokal)
•Less stable / unpredictable food supply
-Secara global : terjadi penurunan produksi pangan
global, sehingga perlu strategi adaptasi, penyesuaian
dan transformasi budidaya
-Temporally: skenario persiapan ketidakstabilan produksi
dan variasi yang tinggi per tahunnya

9. Food security and food production systems
For wheat, rice, maize, climate change without adaptation is projected to
negatively impact production for local temperature increases of 2°C or more
above late-20th-century levels, although individual locations may benefit.
After 2050 the risk of more severe yield impacts increases and depends on the
level of warming
CC is projected to progressively increase inter-annual variability of crop yields in
many regions
All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change,
including food access, utilization, and price stability (high confidence)
Global temperature increases of > 4°C would pose large risks to food security
globally and regionally (high confidence)
Risks to food security are generally greater in low-latitude areas(daerah tropis)
IPCC WG2 SPM, 2014

10. Vermeulen et al., 2013, 'Addressing
uncertainty in adaptation planning for
agriculture', PNAS 110, 8357,
Tends to be
regional or
global
Tends to be
place-based
Skenario Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim
Regulasidankebijakanpemerintah
thdPerubahanIklim
teknologi budidaya, varietas baru,
komoditas baru, hemat air
pendidikan, pelatihan, capacity
building petani thd CC

11. Aspek Riset
Normal
Temperature
Temperature
Stress
Menaikkan suhu malam 2 sampai 4 derajad C pada Padi
(Wicaksono ,2014)

12. Night Temperature Stress Treatments
12
Menaikkan suhu
malam 2-4
derajad C

13. 37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
T0 T1 T2
Chlorophyl unit in 50 DAT
P0
P1
Penurunan index Klorofil dengan kenaikan suhu 2-4 ℃ (T1 & T2)

14. Number of Tillers (penurunan Jumlah anakan
padi pada kenaikan suhu 2-4 ℃)
60,5
46,25
38
72,63
53,88
45,38
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
T0 T1 T2
tillers
Number of tillers
P0
P1

15. Penurunan Padi Produksi akibat kenaikan suhu 4 ℃
(Ton/Ha)
4,8
5
5,2
5,4
5,6
5,8
6
T0P0 T0P1 T1P0 T1P1 T2P0 T2P1
Series1

16. 16
y = -32,417x + 146,36
R² = 0,9952
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
T1 T2 T3
Gram
P0
P1
Kernel and 1000 kernels weight on Corn
with elevated temperature 2-4 ℃
Kernel weight
y = -55,5x + 888,33
R² = 0,8365
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
T1 T2 T3
Gram
P0
P1
1000 kernels
Penurunan bobot Tongkol Kering pada Jagung

17. Different yields of corn among of treatments
hanya dengan kenaikan suhu 2-4 ℃ dengan irigasi dan faktor lingkungan lain
optimal kan menurunkan potensi produksi Jagung di daerah Tropis (Wicaksono,
2014)

18. Three strategies for feeding the world more sustainably
Increasing productivity (managing the supply side)
•Gains in many parts of the world (developed countries and
Latin America and Asia). Lots of ongoing research on how to
sustainably intensify global food production, bridge yield gaps
of crops and livestock, improve value chains
Reducing waste in food value chains
•Post-harvest losses and at the post-consumption stage. Some
work going on
Consuming more sustainable diets (managing the demand side)
•Modifying what we eat could have significant impacts on the
use and and water, reduce GHG emissions, and have important
health and nutritional benefits

19. Increasing homogeneity in global food supplies
Causes
•Industrialization
•But also urbanisation
•Research hanya fokus pada
komoditas itu2 saja
Implications
•More calorie-dense food
available are instantly needed
BUT
•Loosing nutrients from minor
crops, livestock products
•Excess food in specific places
only: obesity, diabetes, heart
disease
•Genetic resource diversity and
conservation are endanger
•Food system more vulnerable to
climate variability and
pests/diseases

20. Increasing homogeneity should be diversivy
•We have shifted
the relative
importance of
crops in our diets
•And hence are
more dependent
on fewer crops
•Food crop should
be diversify
Khouryet al. (2014) PNAS doi: 10.1073/pnas.1313490111

21. Yang diatas itu masih cerita ttg Heat
Yang ini adalah
skenario Perubahan
Iklim Heat and
Drought bersamaan
MENGERIKAN......
Tidak ada pilihan
lain selain Mitigasi
& adaptasi terhadap
perubahan Iklim
pada cara budidaya
dengan skenario :
1.Bertahan
2.Menyesuaikan
3.Bertransformasi
Semoga sebelum
harus beradaptasi
Dunia bisa
memitigasi
perubahan iklim
Wicaksono, 2014

22. Incremental
Systemic
Transformative
Skenario bertahan, menyesuaikan dan bertransformasi
terhadap Perubahan Iklim
Lots of reasons for
overlaps –climate is far
from being the only driver
of change

23. Thank you for your kind attention
23