Traffic Analysis AA Version tyyttfrr2.0.pptx

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1. Addis Ababa network 3G traffic analysis Engineering RAN | 10 Oct, 2015

2. P_00 2 Date (DD/MM/YYYY) Version Prepared by Remark 10/10/2015 Version 1 .0 RAN Optimization 07/11/2015 Version 2.0 RAN Optimization RF resource utilization updated Document control 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015

3. P_00 3 Agenda 1 : Traffic Trend 2 : Capacity Requirement 3 : Capacity distribution 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 4 : RF resource utilization

4. P_00 4 Background 3G optimization Report | Sep 25 , 2015 Mobile broadband networks carry multiple services that share radio access network resources . Each service has different QoS requirements in terms of packet delay tolerance, acceptable packet loss rates, and required minimum bit rates. Hence the capacity of Mobile broadband network can only be estimated with given assumption/ Requirement . Terminal Penetration Mobile Application Service quality Country economy MBB Tariff

5. P_00 5 Traffic trend 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 Trend Forecasting Assumption : For the subscriber trend forecasting the following basic assumption is taken in to account The demand for 3G subscription will not reach saturation with in the next 5 years . Other variables that can potentially leads to a spike in 3G subscription demand are assumed to remain constant

6. P_00 6 Traffic trend 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 The overall PS traffic at busy hour trend shows increasing pattern but the increment is not consistent .

7. P_00 7 Terminal capability 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 Support 64QAM Support DC+64QAM Around 40.8 % of the terminal on the network can support 64QAM modulation . 64QAM increase the downlink peak data rate of the Uu interface to 21 Mbit/s for a single UE and increase system capacity when the channel quality is favorable. 40.8 % 25.01 % DC-HSDPA together with 64QAM pushes the single-user downlink peak throughput up to 42 Mbit/s . Terminal capability is one of the important parameter that affect the radio network capacity . The terminal analysis performance based on call records shows that around 97.88 % of the total terminal in the network can support HSDPA service . In the uplink 86.88% of the terminal supports HSUPA while the other are served through R99 bearer . The implication of this statistics on the radio network capacity is quiet significant and its variation is assumed to be constant in the current capacity estimation proposal .

8. P_00 8 3G -Capacity Requirement

9. P_00 9 Traffic model 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 Attribute TEP NEW CS Voice penetration ratio 100% 100% PS penetration ratio 100% 100% CS Voice traffic per sub( Erlg ) 0.025 0.040 Voice activity factor 0.67 0.67 Proportion of uplink PS throughput 30% 21% Proportion of downlink PS throughput 70% 79% BH Traffic ratio 10% 10% Active User 70% 70% Phone type Data Traffic usage (GB/Month /User) Voice Traffic per user ( Erlang /user) Ratio Dongle 10 37% Smart phone [phone]% Feature phone 0.025   RNC-101 RNC-102 RNC-103 RNC-104 RNC-105 Attribute Average (Aug-2015) Average (Aug-2015) Average (Aug-2015) Average (Aug-2015) Average (Aug-2015) CS traffic ( Erlang ) 4092.033 4277.236 2490.193 3722.301 3132.990 Call holding time/user @BH (s) 86.821 112.859 102.296 84.457 108.758 CS Traffic per user (Erlang/User) 0.045595 0.040979 0.042033 0.039418 0.037062 CS call times/user @BH 2.170 2.790 1.198 1.935 1.761 PS call times/user @BH 37.621 83.627 41.459 41.477 39.148 SHO times/user @BH 49.907 22.735 10.404 17.997 15.200 SofterHO times/user @BH 18.445 68.891 26.862 49.064 42.493 HHO times/user @BH 0.300 0.379 0.111 0.276 0.216 Based on the traffic statistics taken for the month of August some parameters of the traffic model is updated Note

10. P_00 10 Capacity estimation 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 Type Data Dongle Data SP Data per month (GB) 10 1 Proportion (%) 37% 63% Data Volume per month per user 3.7 0.63 Data Volume per month per user (GB) 4.33 Busy hour ratio(%) 10% Data Volume per month per user@BH (kbps) 33.96 Active user ratio(%) 70% Active user Data volume per user@BH (kbps) 33.96 DL/UL Ratio 79% DL Throughput per user @BH (kbps) 26.82766079 UL Throughput per user @BH (kbps) 7.131403502       According to orange telecom laboratory test     DL Throughput per cell (Mbps ) 3.6   UL Throughput per cell (Mbps) 1.9           Active Subs/Cell Total Subs/Cell DL User per carrier (User) 137 196 UL User per carrier (user ) 273 390 Number of Subs/Cell 137 196 Voice ( Erlang /Sub) 4.00E-02 Erlang to Kbps 1Erlg=50kbps Voice data volume (kbps) 3.27E-01 At the end of the 4th quarter of 2016 the subscriber number is forecasted to reach 2,359,268 4 th quarter of 2016 : 2,359,268 sub According to the previous traffic model used for TEP project the capacity estimation result was 224 subscriber per carrier . After changing few traffic model parameter the capacity estimation result in 196 subscriber per carrier . Accordingly the number of required cells to carrier the target subscriber is calculated as follow :- # Carrier current 6812 # Carrier forecasted 12019 % increase in Carrier 43% # Current capacity (Sub) 1.5 Million # Forecasted Capacity (Sub) 2.359268 Million

11. P_00 11 Capacity estimation 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 According to marketing forecast 3G distribution until 2016/2017 will be 3,955,730   Active Subs/Cell Total Subs/Cell DL User per carrier (User) 137 196 UL User per carrier (user ) 273 390 Number of Subs/Cell 137 196 Capacity dimensioning result Required Number of cell   According to 3G subscriber growth trend forecast 3G subscriber number at the end of 2017 will be 3,134,248 Forecast 3G subscriber Capacity estimation result Current capacity Capacity increment Marketing 3,955,730 20183 6812 66.24% Subscriber growth trend 3,134,248 15991 6812 57.40%

12. P_00 12 3G -Capacity distribution

13. P_00 13 Coverage analysis 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 Area -1 Area -3 Area -2 The coverage plot is based on network geographic observation function of Nastar tool ,which is based on call history records (CHRs) and Measurement report (MR) data . Since the coverage distribution is plotted based on real customer MR data , the result shows the actual customer experience .

14. P_00 14 Coverage analysis 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 Area -1 Gefersa water reservoir . Due to the topography of the area the area has poor coverage . New site is required

15. P_00 15 Coverage analysis 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 Area -2 Area -2 Bole B ulubula new settlement area . The topography and the inter-site distance contributed for poor signal coverage. New site is required

16. P_00 16 Coverage analysis 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 Area -3 Area -3 Akaki Beseka area . The inter-site distance contributed for poor signal coverage. New site is required

17. P_00 17 Hotspot areas 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 The HSDPA throughput distribution shows potential data user distribution . And most of the areas identified in the suburban area are served with U222 configured site . Carrier expansion is required

18. P_00 18 Summary 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 The expansion proposal is presented in to two ways . Carrier expansion on the existing site New site New site expansion is mainly on coverage analysis and the carrier expansion will be considered based on hotspot area analysis .

19. P_00 19 3G -RF Resource utilization

20. P_00 20 Resource utilization 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 TCP power utilization Observation : Around 70% of the total 3G cell’s downlink power utilization is below 40% . There are few cells with >70% downlink power utilization .

21. P_00 21 Resource utilization 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 TCP power utilization There are few site with high TCP utilization And most of these sites are found in the outskirt of the city

22. P_00 22 Resource utilization 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 CE utilization Observation : Around 60% of the total sites have high DL usage ( >70% utilization ) About 40 % of the total sites have less utilization (<70% ) . Further resource optimization action is required .

23. P_00 23 Resource utilization 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 CE utilization Observation : Most of the sites UL CE utilization is below 70% .

24. P_00 24 Resource utilization 3G Traffic Analysis | Oct 10 , 2015 CE utilization Most of the sites with high DL CE utilization are found in the dense urban

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