UKRANIAN WAR IMPACTS ON GLOBAL ECONOMY.pptx

UKRANIAN WAR IMPACTS ON GLOBAL ECONOMY

1. Impacts of War on Global Economy ALPHABETICALLY KARIM MOHAMED ELABSAWY 21226593 MOHAMED HUSSEIN IBRAHIM 21226943 MOHAMED MANSOUR FATHY 21227149 MOHAMED MOAWAD SALEH 21226980 MOSTAFA AHMED MOSTAFA 21226589 RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

2. 2 TERM PAPER INDEX # SUBJECT SLIDES 1 INTRODUCTION 03 – 06 KARIM ELABSAWY 2 GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN DISTRIBUTION 07 – 09 MOHAMED HUSSEIN 3 GLOBAL SUPPLY SHOCK 10 4 FOOD SUPPLY IN CRISIS 11 – 12 MOHAMED MANSOUR 5 THE IMPACT ON THE INTERNATIONAL STOCK MARKETS 13 – 14 6 RISING COST OF LIVING AND GLOBAL INFLATION 15 – 17 MOSTAFA AHMED 7 ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF WARS 18 – 19 MOHAMED MOAWAD 8 ECONOMICS IMPACT OF WAR – CONCLUSION 20

3. 3 INTRODUCTION THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR IS HAVING AN EXTREME IMPACTS ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY SUCH AS GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN, IMPEDING THE FLOW OF GOODS, FUELING DRAMATIC COST INCREASES AND PRODUCT SHORTAGES. THIS CREATES CATASTROPHIC FOOD NEGATIVE IMPACTS.

4. MOST OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SECTORS HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR IN MANY AREAS 4

5. 5 INTERNATIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN. OIL AND GAS PRICES. THE INTERNATIONAL BANKING SYSTEM. THE INTERNATIONAL STOCK MARKETS. INCREASING THE UNEMPLOYMENT.

6. 6 REDUCING THE RESOURCES. THE ECONOMIC TOTAL PRODUCTION AND GROWTH. THE INTERNATIONAL INFLATION BESIDES THE COST OF LIVING AND OTHER ECONOMIC IMPACTS.

7. Global Supply Chain Distribution Energy Sector Trade Sector

8. 8 GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN DISTRIBUTION ENERGY SECTOR GERMANY SUSPENDED THE APPROVAL OF THE RUSSIAN “NORD STREAM II” GAS PIPELINE PROJECT WHICH IS SERVING THE DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY TO EUROPE. THE UNITED STATES HAS ALSO BANNED ALL RUSSIAN IMPORTS OF OIL AND GAS. THE EUROPEAN UNION HAS BANNED THE SALE, SUPPLY, TRANSFER OR EXPORT OF OIL REFINING TECHNOLOGIES TO RUSSIA. THE UK HAS ANNOUNCED THAT IT WILL PHASE OUT RUSSIAN OIL BY THE END OF 2022.

9. 9 GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN DISTRIBUTION TRADE SECTOR REGARDING THE TRADE EXCHANGE BETWEEN THE WORLD AND RUSSIA, THE EUROPEAN UNION HAS MANAGED EUROPIAN NEEDS FROM OTHER RESOURCES. CANADA HAS CANCELLED ALL THE VALID EXPORT PERMITS LINKED WITH RUSSIA (REUTERS) . BESIDES ALL THESE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, STILL SOME OTHER SANCTIONS RELATED TO TIGHTENING VISA ISSUANCE AND IMPOSING TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS FOR SPECIFIC RUSSIAN PERSONS. REMOVING RUSSIA FROM SOME CULTURAL AND SPORTS’ EVENTS; AND FINALLY BANNING THE RUSSIAN AIRPLANES FROM FLYING INTO THE AIRSPACE OF SOME OPPOSING COUNTRIES.

10. 10 GLOBAL SUPPLY SHOCK AS A RESULT, TO RISE ON OIL AND GAS PRICES RUSSIA IS THE SECOND-BIGGEST EXPORTER OF CRUDE OIL, AND THE WORLD'S LARGEST NATURAL GAS EXPORTER, WHICH IS VITAL FOR HOME-USE HEATING, POWERING PLANES AND FILLING CARS WITH FUEL. INCREASING OIL AND GAS PRICES CAUSE INCREASING OF TRANSPORTATIONS, MANUFACTURING, & LIVING COSTS.

11. 11 ONE OF THE MOST ALARMING SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES RESULTING FROM THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR IS FOOD SHORTAGE, PARTICULARLY ACUTE IN LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES IN AFRICA. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA ACCOUNT FOR ABOUT A THIRD OF THE WORLD’S WHEAT AND A QUARTER OF BARLEY PRODUCTION, NOT TO MENTION 75% OF THE SUNFLOWER OIL SUPPLY. ALL CRITICAL COMMODITIES FOR KEEPING HUMANS FED. FOOD SUPPLY IN CRISIS

12. 12 FOOD SUPPLY IN CRISIS FOOD SHORTAGE PRECIPITATED BY THE WAR ARE HURTING FOOD PRICES EVERYWHERE, WITH THE HARDEST HIT BEING DEVELOPING ECONOMIES WHERE THE WORLD’S POOREST LIVE. THE UNITED NATIONS’ FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION (FAO) REPORTS THAT THE GLOBAL FOOD PRICE INDEX (FPI) AVERAGED 159.3 POINTS IN MARCH 2022, UP 17.9 POINTS (12.6%) FROM FEBRUARY. THIS IS THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE ITS INCEPTION IN 1990. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA SHARES IN CRITICAL COMMODITIES GRAPH

13. 13 THE IMPACT ON THE INTERNATIONAL STOCK MARKETS THE DOW JONES, S&P 500 AND NASDAQ ALL RECORDED A SHARP DECLINE ACROSS THE BOARD, INFLATION CONCERNS AND THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE ALL WEIGHED HEAVILY ON INVESTORS. IT FELL BY NEARLY 15% ON FEBRUARY 23, THE DAY BEFORE RUSSIAN TROOPS BEGAN OPERATIONS ON UKRAINIAN TERRITORY

14. 14 THE IMPACT ON THE INTERNATIONAL STOCK MARKETS NASDAQ FELL 16.7% THIS YEAR WHILE THE S&P 500 AND THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE FELL 11.3% AND 8% RESPECTIVELY COMPARED TO THE END OF 2021 (CNBC) .

15. 15 RISING COST OF LIVING AND GLOBAL INFLATION FISCAL DEFICITS, ELEVATED DEBT-TO-GDP RATIOS, AND HIGH INFLATION RATES SUGGEST HYPERINFLATION COULD HAVE POTENTIALLY EMERGED IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES AFTER WARS (LOPEZ, JOSE A., 2018) .

16. 16 AS THE AGGRESSION CONTINUES, MOST EUROPEAN STATES, INCLUDING GERMANY AND THE U.K. WILL FACE RISING LIVING COSTS. IN THE UNITED KINGDOM, FOR EXAMPLE, INFLATION IS ACTUALLY AS HIGH AS 7% (ONS, 2022) . WHICH MEANS THAT THE CONSUMERS ALREADY SPENDING MORE MONEY ON LESS PRODUCTS, CONFLICTS LEAD TO FURTHER INCREASES IN OIL, GAS, AND FOOD PRICES WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIVING EXPENSES AS THE COSTS OF MORTGAGE DEDUCTIONS, LIGHTING AND CARS CAN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. IT HAS ALSO A SPILLOVER EFFECT ON THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES THAT DEPEND ON ENERGY IMPORTS. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WILL PAY HIGHER PRICES FOR IMPORTS OF ENERGY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO HIGHER LOCAL FUEL PRICES, HIGHER FOOD PRICES, AND AN OVERALL INCREASE IN COMMODITY IMPORTS, ALTHOUGH INCOME LEVELS REMAIN UNCHANGED. THIS LEADS TO INCREASED INFLATION AND RISING LIVING COSTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. THE COMBINED EFFECT FOR BOTH DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CAN LEAD TO A HIGHER GLOBAL INFLATION. RISING COST OF LIVING AND GLOBAL INFLATION

17. 17 AN ESTIMATED 4.8 MILLION JOBS HAVE BEEN LOST IN UKRAINE SINCE THE START OF THE RUSSIAN AGGRESSION, ACCORDING TO A NEW BRIEF BY THE INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANIZATION (ILO). THE STUDY ESTIMATES THAT IF HOSTILITIES WERE TO ESCALATE EMPLOYMENT LOSSES WOULD INCREASE TO SEVEN MILLION.

18. 18 WAR CAN APPEAR TO HAVE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS. THOUGH AS ALREADY STATED ALL THESE COULD BE ACHIEVED WITHOUT WAR. FULL EMPLOYMENT HIGHER ECONOMIC GROWTH INCREASED RATE OF INNOVATION AS THE GOVERNMENT INVESTS IN NEW TECHNOLOGY, E.G. DEVELOPMENT OF RADAR/JET ENGINE IN THE SECOND WORLD WAR COULD BE USED FOR PEACEFUL PURPOSES. CHANGE IN SOCIAL ATTITUDES. FOR EXAMPLE, WOMEN ENTERING LABOR MARKET AFTER FIRST WORLD WAR. ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF WARS

19. 19 ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF WARS GRAPH SHOWING A SHARP FALL IN UNEMPLOYMENT AT THE START OF THE SECOND WORLD WAR

20. 20 HOW ARE WAR AND ECONOMICS CONNECTED?

21. THANK YOU THE IMPACT OF THE WAR ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY GROUP C 21