Week-3 Creattttttttive Decision Making.ppt

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1. Week-3
Creative Decision Making

2. Decision Making
Theactofchoosingonealternativefromamongasetof
alternatives.
Theprocessbywhichmanagersrespondtotheopportunitiesand
threatsthatconfrontthembyanalyzingtheoptionsandmaking
decisionsaboutspecificorganizationalgoalsandcourseofaction.
Gooddecisionsresultinselectionofappropriategoalsandcourse
ofactionthatincreaseorganizationalperformance.
Decisionmakinginresponsetoopportunitiesvsdecisionmaking
inresponsetothreats

3. Decision
Making
Conditions
Decision Making Under Certainty
Decision Making Under Risk
Decision Making Under Uncertainty

4. Programmed
Decision Making
Programmeddecisionsareroutine,repetitiveand
virtuallyautomaticprocess.
Programmeddecisionsaredecisionswhereallinputs
andoutcomesareknownwithalotofcertainty.
UseofMachineLearninginmakingdecisions

5. Non-
Programmed
Decision
Making
Occurswhentherearenoready-madedecisionrules
thatmanagerscanapplytoasituation.
Requiredfornonroutinedecisions.
Inresponsetounusualornovelopportunitiesand
threats.
Managersrelyonintuitiontomakedecisions.

6. Discussion
Question
Discussthepointsofdifferencesbetweenprogrammed
andnon-programmeddecisions.

7. Classical Model
of Decision
Making
Assumption:Managersarelogicalandrationaland
makedecisionsthatareintheorganization’sbest
interests.

8. Steps in Rational
Decision Making
1. Recognizing and Defining the Decision Situation
2. Identifying Alternatives
3. Evaluating Alternatives
4. Selecting the Best Alternative
5. Implementing the Chosen Alternative
6. Following Up and Evaluating the Results

9. Decision Tree
to Judge
Alternatives

10. Discussion
question
Wasyourdecisionaboutwhatcollegeoruniversity
toattendarationaldecision?Didyougothrough
eachstepinrationaldecisionmaking?Ifnot,why
not?

11. The
Administrative
Model of
Decision Making

12. The
Administrative
Model of
Decision Making
BoundedRationality:Decisionmakersarelimitedby
theirvaluesandunconsciousreflexes,skills,andhabits.
Theyarealsolimitedbyless-than-completeinformation
andknowledge.
Satisficing:Ratherthanconductinganexhaustive
searchforthebestpossiblealternative,decisionmakers
tendtosearchonlyuntiltheyidentifyanalternativethat
meetssomeminimumstandardofsufficiency.

13. Behavioral
Factors Affecting
Decision Making
Political forces(Coalition)
Escalation of commitment
Intuition
Risk propensity
Ethics and beliefs

14. Group and Team
Decision Making
Interacting Groups or Teams
Delphi Groups
Nominal Groups

15. DiscussionQuestion:Listadvantagesand
disadvantagesofgroupandteamdecisionmaking.