5 Demographic Transition model

Introductory overview of the DTM for use in grade 10.

1. Definitions Infant Mortality: It is defined as the proportion of children who die before they reach the age of one year Life Expectancy: It is the number of years that a child born in a particular country in a certain year can expect to live

2. Demographic Transition Model Population increase= Natural increase + rate of net migration These changes are analyze in a Demographic Transition Model

3. There are 4 stages in the model The Demographic Transition Model attempts to show how population changes as a country develops. The model is divided into four stages. The Demographic Transition Model does not take into account migration.

4. The Four Stages Stage 1 Birth rate is high Death rate is high Low natural increase - low total population Factors Children provide security & Labor Religious beliefs encourages large families poor or inadequate medical care & sanitation Give Examples?

5. Stage 1: Pyramid Structure Due to high birth rates, the pyramid shape would have a wide base; Due to high death rates, the pyramid would be very short in height; concave shape indicates low life expectancy.

6. The Four Stages Stage 2 Birth rate is high – death rate is falling – high natural increase (population growth) Factors Birth rates high because of cultural factors Advances in medical care and sanitation Give Examples?

7. Stage 2 : Pyramid Structure As death rates fall , the population explosion begins; The height of the pyramid grows to reflect the prevention of more deaths; shape becomes less concave as life expectancy increases; The width of the base remains large due to the ongoing high birth rates

8. The Four Stages Stage 3 Falling birth rate Low death rate High natural increase (population growth) The “gap” closes, population increase slows down Factors Realization-large families are unnecessary Family planning becomes available Parents favor material things, not large families, Woman become more involved in the workforce Give Examples?

9. Stage 3: Pyramid Structure As birth rates begin to be addressed, the base begins to stabilize and eventually narrow; Death rates are low and stabilized, meaning that the pyramid continues to grow higher.

10. The Four Stages Stage 4 Birth rate is low Death rate is low low natural increase - high total population Small “gap” like in stage 1 (Population may be declining) Give Examples?

11. Stage 4: Pyramid Structure Birth rates and death rates are low; as fertility continues to decline, an AGING SOCIETY emerges. Pyramid seems to “ invert”

12. MEDC vs. LEDC Note the quick transition to Phase 3 from the explosion of Phase 2 Note the longer time period as LEDC’s are “trapped” in Phase 2

13. Criticism of DTM The model is an over-generalization of the industrialized European experience Industrialization is difficult to achieve for LEDC’s in a trading system that protects the industries of MEDC’s; Model assumes all countries proceed from stage 1-4; It ignores variables and exceptions ( ie . War, political turmoil) The model assumes that reductions in fertility are a function of increased wealth and industrialization– Other factors such as the status of women and other social development are ignored.