Demographic Processes

Explanations and amplifications of ideas related to the basic processes of demography, for an introductory sociology course.

1. Explanations & Supplemental Information for Chapter 19 of The Sociology Project Population Dynamics

2. Rate of Population Change

3. Rate of Population Change

4. Population Dynamics: Key Terms & Core Concepts Understanding of set of processes underlying Births, Deaths, Movement into and out of given population Describing change in Fertility , Mortality , Migration Understanding what might be causing changes

5. CORE CONCEPT: MANIFEST and LATENT FUNCTIONS MANIFEST functions of a social pattern outcomes people consciously intend or predict from the actions they choose the explanations they give themselves LATENT functions of a social pattern the outcomes that regularly occur but are neither foreseen or intended. must be discovered through research POPULATION dynamics stem from BOTH

6. Factors Affecting Fertility Latent Polygyny Dowry (economic) Marry late (age) Taboos about non-marital sexual intercourse Higher divorce rates Religious bans (180 days/year) Breastfeeding Manifest Potions, spells, etc. Since 1850 B.C., barrier methods of contraception used Coitus interruptus Abortion Infanticide (c.f. story of Moses...)

7. Demographic Transition

8. Core Concept: Demographic transition Initial pretransition period: high fertility high mortality Transitional period mortality first declines followed by decline in fertility Posttransition period both fertility and mortality are low

9. Demographic Transition Theory

10. Comparison of 3 Nations: Sudan-1950 Start of first demographic transition Rapid decreases in mortality, but much later and slower decreases in fertility, which in turn imply very rapid population growth U.S . End of first demographic transition Age pyramid after age 60 Replacement fertility Japan Completed first demographic transition Below replacement fertility

11. Changes in Fertility and Mortality Around the World: A Closer Look

12. Immigration U.S .: Population involves in- and out-migration Japan : Very small immigrant population Population momentum U.S .: Continued slow growth Japan : Initial and then decreased growth MIGRATION

13. Aging of Baby Boomers Baby Boom bulge in middle of pyramid. Long lives means many more elderly in future years.

14. The Epidemiological Transition First demographic transition Impacts kinds of disease and health conditions affecting countries Epidemiological transition Healh transition of population from health conditions primarily involving infectious disease to health conditions primarily involving chronic disease

15. Factors Affecting Demographics

16. Number of children born to women in the 40-44 age group in the USA 16 Why 40-44? First bar = 1976 (What year were these women 20 years old?) Last bar = 1998 (What year were these women 20 years old ?) What pattern?

17. Preferences Concerning Gender of Children, 1941 and 2000, U.S.A. 17 Light Saber

18. Planning for a world with many elders & few babies.

19. Aging economies: 2010

20. Aging economies: 2040 This pattern is very likely, unless something occurs that causes the death rate of the elderly to increase dramatically. Source: United Nations FPA: Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: A Celebration and A Challenge http://www.unfpa.org/webdav/site/global/shared/documents/publications/2012/UNFPA-Main-Report-Part2.pdf

21. Will some countries age more quickly than others ? Japan (if fertility remains at very low subreplacement levels) Rapid population aging Rapid population decline Demographic Winter (Friday’s film) will report fertility figures for some of European countries that are well below 2.0, some as low as 1.1 children per woman (population will be half its current size in 33 years). Aging and Population Dynamics

22. Aging economies: 2070 This pattern is somewhat less certain. No nation has ever reversed the decline in birth-rate. However, governments in Japan, Russia and Sweden are trying to boost their birth rates. Such policies might have an impact.

23. Possible World Population Growth Curves

24. Some social scientists have great concern that population decline will have economic and social consequences that will be hard to live with. They produced a film titled Demographic Winter.

25. What are the patterns of childbearing? What are the economic impacts? What are the social trends that generated and sustain the pattern? Is this a problem? If so, what policies are needed? Demographic Winter

26. The search for causes is seeking explanation If the situation is considered a problem, the resolution is not necessarily the reversal of the original circumstances. Example : Obesity is a growing problem because we have more, cheaper food than any time in history. No one suggests going back to less efficient agriculture to cure obesity – but other policies do try to have an impact on the problem. The facts in the film are solid. It is designed to be provocative so that people think. Policy choice

27. Explanations & Supplemental Information for Chapter 19 of The Sociology Project Population Dynamics