Demographic transition theory

CAPE Sociology Unit two Demographic Transition module

1. Demographic Transition Theory
 Ideas of this theory was articulated by Warren Thomas in 1929
 This model describes a series of changes over a period of time in the relationship between
birth and death ratio and overall population change
 Similar to Marx, this theory exemplifies the development of capitalism in European
society, i.e. it represents the transition from primitive communities to 19
th
century
capitalism
 Warren’s findings were derived by looking at demographic change between specific
countries in 1908 – 1927
 In an analysis of these findings, he argued that all countries pass through similar
demographic transition stages or population cycles
 The model consists of 4 stages

Stage 1 – High Fluctuating UK pre-1760
 Birth rates and death rates fluctuated at a high level thus giving a small population
growth
 The birth rates were higher because:
1. There was no birth control or family planning
2. There was a high rate of infant mortality thus tended to procreate more in the
hopes that several would survive
3. Many children were needed to work on the land as the family was seen as the unit
of production
4. Children were regarded as a sign of virility

 Warren in his analysis, also found that during the 1
st
stage the death rates were higher –
especially among children
 This was so because:
1. Disease and plagues
2. Famine, poor diets, unclean food supplies
3. Poor sanitation – no piped clean water, no sewage disposal
4. Poor health care – little medical service, few doctors, hospitals and drugs

Stage 2 – Early Expanding UK 1760 - 1880
 There was higher birth rates but a rapid decline in the death rate thus contributing to a
rapid population growth

2.  It is important to note that this period marked the birth of the Industrial Revolution which
brought with it many social and economic benefits for society and is said to be
responsible for the improved lives of humans and their increased life expectancy
 The fall in death rates resulted from:
1. Improved medical care – vaccines, hospitals, drugs, doctors and scientific
inventions
2. Improved sanitation and water supply
3. Improved transport to move food, doctors etc
4. Improvements in food production in terms of quantity and quality
5. A decrease in child mortality

Stage 3 – Late Expanding UK 1880 - 1940
 Birth rates fell rapidly while death rates continued to fall slightly
 This resulting in a slowly increasing population
 The fall in birth rates may be due to:
1. Family planning – contraceptives, sterilization, abstinence and government
incentives
2. A reduction in the infant mortality rate thus resulting in less pressure to have
many children
3. Increased industrialization and mechanisation leading to the need for fewer
workers
4. A shift in the structure and function of the family from a unit of production to a
unit of consumption. As a result there was now an increased desire for material
possessions – cars, houses, foreign holidays – and less desire for large families
5. The emancipation of women – they no longer saw themselves as child-bearers and
housewives. They became career oriented
Stage 4 – Low Fluctuating UK post-1940
 Birth rates and death rates remained low and there is a slight fluctuation giving rise to a
steady population
 In some cases the birth rate and death rate may slightly exceed the other
 In extreme cases this stage could also give birth to a negative population growth
Things to note
 Stage 1 and 2 reveal a society steeped in mechanical solidarity – the mode of production
was agriculture
 Stage 3 was the transition to organic solidarity

3.  Parsons spoke of the process of specialization and social differentiation, the emergence of
small privatised nuclear households and a shift in the value system from particularism to
universalism
Criticisms
 The model was Eurocentric
1. Argued that all countries would pass through the same 4 stages
2. However, it was unlikely that some countries were economically less developed,
e.g. Africa would ever become developed
 In some cases the fall in death rates in stage 2 was assumed to be the consequence of
industrialization. However, in Britain, the death rate was due to unsanitary conditions
which resulted from rapid urban growth and it only began to fall after advances were
made in medicine
 In relation to the fall of birth rates in stage 3 – it could have been due to religious or
political opposition to birth control
 The time scale of the model – some countries tend to develop at a much faster rate than
others as did the early industrial countries, e.g. Hong Kong
Uses of the model
 To show population growth changes of a country over time
 To compare rates of growth between different countries at a given point in time