DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN INDIA

An Insight into the demographic trends of India using various demographic indicators ( Sex Ratio,Dependency Ratio, Urbanization, Family Size, Literacy Rate and Life Expectancy).

There is also brief introduction of basics of demography along with the demographic cycle.

1. DEMOGRAPHIC
TRENDS IN INDIA
PRESENTED BY
FAISAL SHAAN
MBBS 2010 BATCH
DEMOGRAPHY & FAMILY
PLANNING:

2. INTRODUCTION
▪DEFINITION–Demography is the scientific study of human population.
5 Processes in demography :
Fertility, mortality , marriage ,migration and
Social mobility.
▪3 Phenomena in demography:
Change in population size –Growth or Decline
Composition of population
Distribution of population in space
Demographic
Process
Fertility
Mortality
MarriageMigration
Social
Mobility
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3. DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
5 STAGES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
Stage BR DR Examples
Stage
1
High
Stationary
India was in
this stage till 1920
Stage
2
Early
Expanding
+
South Asia & Africa
Stage
3
Late
Expanding
India, China,
Singapore
Stage
4
Low
Stationary
UK, Denmark, Sweden
, Belgium
Stage
5
Declining Germany & Hungary
INDIA 1920 High Stationary
INDIA PRESENT LateExpanding
High
Stationary
Early
Expanding
Late
Expanding
Low
Stationary
Declining
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4. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN INDIA
▪India has 2.4% world land area & 17% of world’s population.
▪Year 1921-“Big divide”.
▪India’s population currently increasing at rate of 16
million/yr.
HISTORICAL POPULATION OF
INDIA
Year Population
(Millions)
1901 238
1911 252
1921 251
1931 279
1941 318
1951 361
1961 439
1971 548
1981 683
1991 846
2001 1028
2011 1210
3/11
Source: 1. K . Park 22
nd
Edition
2. Census 2011
Population projection:
If our population
continues to grow at
this rate:
By 2050 India’s
population will be
1.53 billion.

5. DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS
Population Size
Population Density
Sex Ratio
Dependency Ratio
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Growth Rate
Life Expectancy at Birth
Mortality & Fertility Rate
Population
Statistics
Vital
Statistics
DEMOGRAPHIC
INDICATORS
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6. AGE & SEX COMPOSITION
AGE PYRAMID:
•Represents Age structure of a population.
•The age pyramid of India is typical of developing countries i.e. with a “BROAD BASE” and “TAPERING TOP”.
Proportion of population < 14 yrs. -“DECLINING Trend”
.
Proportion of the elderly “INCREASING”.
This Imposes a greater BURDENon Health services in
India.
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Source: Census 2011

7. SEX RATIO
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Sexratioisdefinedasthenumberoffemalesper1000malesin
thepopulation.
Thesexratiointhecountryhasalwaysremainedunfavorableto
females.
Census yearSex ratio
(Females per
1000 males)
1951 946
1961 941
1971 930
1981 934
1991 927
2001 933
2011 940
Causes of low sex ratio:
Strong Male child preference
Consequent gender
Inequities
Neglect of the girl child
Female infanticide
Female foeticide
High MMR
Male bias in population
enumeration.
ALARMING:Census2011marks
aconsiderablefallinchildsex
ratio(0-6yrs.)andhasreached
analltimelowof914since
1961.

8. DEPENDENCY RATIO
Total dependency ratio = 0-14 years + 65 years and above
15 to 65 years
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DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS –
A decline in the TDR d/t-Decline in fertility.
Key factor in Economic development.
DEMOGRAPHIC BURDEN –
Increase in the TDR.
Cause of Economic Burden.
For the Year 2010:
•Young Age dependency Ratio-47.9%
•Old Age dependency Ratio-7.7%
Source-K. Park 22
nd
edition

9. FAMILY SIZE
Totalnumberofchildrenbornebyawomenatapointin
timeduringherchildbearingage(15to45years).
Long term goal NRR=1
“2 Child Family Norm”
Total fertility rate (TFR) gives an idea of total family
size.
TFR in India: 2.68 (NFHS-3).
Family size depends upon
Duration of marriage
Education of couple
No. of live births
Contraception method
Socioeconomic statusetc.
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10. URBANIZATION
Massmigrationofruralpopulationintourbancentersresultinginincreasingtheurbanpopulation&
growthofcities.
Causeofurbanization:“MIGRATION”d/t-
Betteremploymentopportunities.
Betterlivingstandards.
BetteravailabilityofsocialserviceslikeEducation,Health,Transport,Entertainmentetc.
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CENSUS 2011 Rural Population
(millions)
Urban Population
(millions)
Increase in Urban
population (%)
INDIA 833.1 377.1 3.35

11. LITERACY & EDUCATION
A person (7 yrs. or more) is considered as literate if he or she can read & write with understanding in any
language.
Highest Literacy Rate in India-KERALA(93.91).
Dismal picture in –Bihar (Lit. Rate-63.82%) &
Arunachal Pradesh (Lit. Rate-66.9%)
Literacy Rates:
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StateMale
lit.(%)
Female
lit.(%)
Total
lit.(%)
India82.14 65.46 74.04
Uttar
Pradesh
79.24 59.26 69.72
Kerala96.02 91.98 93.91
Source: 1. K . Park 22
nd
Edition
2. Census 2011
18.33
28.3
34.45
43.57
52.21
65.38
74.04
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Literacy Rate in India
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

12. LIFE EXPECTANCY
“Indicatorofcountry’s
levelofdevelopment&
overallhealthstatusofthe
population.”
Expectationoflifeatbirth
–World(Combinedforboth
sexes)
1950:46.5years
2002:63years
Census2011:Thevaluefor
Lifeexpectancy at
birth,total(years)inIndia
was65.48asof2011.
Year Males Females
1901 23.63 23.96
1951 32.45 31.66
1961 41.89 40.55
1971 46.40 44.70
1981 54.10 54.70
1991 59.70 60.90
2001 63.90 66.90
2009 63 66
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Expectation of life -at a given age is the average number of
years which a person of that age may expect to live, according
to the mortality pattern prevalent in that country.
Expectation of life at birth (India):
Source: 1. K . Park 22
nd
Edition

13. AT A GLANCE:
REFERENCES: CENSUS 2011 & K.PARK 22
nd
Edition.