Exploring the Possible Scenarios of an Israeli-Lebanese Conflict.pdf

This study explores the possible scenarios of a regional conflict that may occur initially between Israel and Lebanon but may grow and extend to other regions involving more nations. It informs leaders of the consequences of such a conflict for all parties. By utilizing the scenarios matrix, it develops alternative scenarios according to the nature and combinations of four variables, including the Israel Defense Forces’ (I.D.F.) fighting power, Hezbollah’s response, the United States (U.S.) and allies’ intervention, Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s intervention. Analyzing the relationships of these variables also warns of wildcard scenarios that can impact the course of the conflict significantly and increase the risks as it may get out of control. If diplomatic efforts fail to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the potential consequences could be severe and multifaceted as identified by this inquiry. The study suggests that decision-makers and policymakers rethink the idea of pre-emptive wars as any miscalculations can impose severe humanitarian impacts and irrecoverable costs on nations involved directly or indirectly in the conflict.

1. © 2024 [email protected]
Exploring the Possible
Scenarios of an Israeli-
Lebanese Conflict
July 12, 2024
Alireza Hejazi, Ph.D.

2. Introduction
Method
Scenario 1: Contained Conflict
Scenario 2: Regional Conflict
Scenario 3: Battle of Attrition
Scenario 4: Regional Proxy War
Scenario 5: Stalemate
Scenario 6: Fragile Ceasefire
Scenario 7: Victorious Hezbollah
Scenario 8: Impasse
Scenario 9: Nuclear Showdown
Contents
Download the original paper here: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12697226
Scenario 10: Surprise Capture Scenario 11: Widespread Cyberattack Conclusion

3. Introduction
This study presents the use of a scenarios matrix based on the dependence and
independence of relevant variables. It serves the objective of envisioning
alternative scenarios effectively.
It provides a reliable framework for considering possible scenarios and analyzing
their outcomes. It underscores the complex and unpredictable nature of regional
conflicts and the interconnectedness of regional dynamics.
The study develops hypothetical scenarios that inform readers of the potential
consequences of an Israeli-Lebanese conflict. These are only hypothetical
scenarios and should not be interpreted as predictions or endorsements of any
particular outcome.

4. Israel and Hezbollah Launching Strikes Across the Border
Strikes by Israel and Hezbollah between October
7, 2023, and May 23, 2024.
(Source: Council on Foreign Relations, June 6, 2024)

5. Method (1/4)
This study applies the scenarios matrix method to explore possible future(s) of a r
egional conflict that may take place between Israel and Lebanon. The output is a
set of scenarios foreseeing the conflict in eight main possible situations and three
other plausible conditions.
It considers four variables in the process of developing scenarios, including the I.
D.F.’s fighting power, Hezbollah’s response, the U.S. and allies’ intervention, Iran,
and the Axis of Resistance’s intervention.
The U.S.’s allies will be the United Kingdom (U.K.), France, Jordan, and some of t
he Persian Gulf states. The Axis of Resistance led by Iran will include Lebanon’s
Hezbollah, Shia armed groups in Iraq, Yemen’s Houthi re- bels, and Syrian govern
ment and pro- government militias.

6. Method (2/4)
The I.D.F.’s fighting power and Hezbollah’s response are independent variables a
s they are the primary drivers of the potential conflict. The I.D.F.’s decision to inva
de Lebanon and Hezbollah’s subsequent defensive actions would shape the cour
se of the conflict.
The U.S. and allies’ intervention and Iran and Axis of Resistance’s intervention ar
e the dependent variables. These variables would depend on and react to the dev
elopments between the I.D.F. and Hezbollah’s direct military engagement.
Normally, a 2x2x2x2 matrix with four variables having two states should generate
16 unique combinations. However, for specific reasons, the number of combinatio
ns are limited to 8 possible and 3 plausible scenarios.

7. Method (3/4)
Firstly, strong interdependencies between the variables were identified. For exam
ple, a high state for one independent variable strongly influenced the state of anot
her independent variable, making certain combinations less likely or even impossi
ble. This reduced the number of plausible combinations.
Secondly, similar scenarios were merged. For example, two scenarios that had sli
ghtly different combinations of independent variables but led to roughly the same
outcome for the dependent variables were combined into one scenario. This also
reduced the number of scenarios while retaining the essence of the analysis.
Thirdly, there was a prioritization of plausibility. The study focused on scenarios th
at were deemed more plausible. Even though all 16 combinations are mathematic
ally possible, some were considered highly improbable or irrelevant based on curr
ent conditions and understanding of future situations.

8. Method (4/4)
The study applied “High” and “Low” states for each variable. Despite a range of st
ates or specific levels of intervention, response, or capability, “High” and “Low” we
re the best candidates to narrate each scenario as simply as possible.
The choice of two- value variables was mainly due to limited resources or unexpec
ted resistance and also a strategic choice to avoid escalation. By simplifying varia
bles to “High” or “low,” they could be broadly categorized and managed to generat
e meaningful scenarios.
The American and Iranian intervention variables could be categorized into four val
ues, including no Intervention, limited support, regional proxy force, and direct mili
tary intervention. These values would generate similar consequences and scenari
os. Therefore, the two- value option was also applied for dependent variables.

9. The Scenarios Matrix
Scenario Probability
The IDF’s
Fighting Power
Hezbollah’s
Response
The U.S. and
Allies’
Intervention
Iran and the Axis
of Resistance’s
Intervention
1 10% High Low High Low
2 5% High Low Low High
3 15% High High High Low
4 20% High High Low High
5 5% Low Low High High
6 10% Low Low Low Low
7 20% Low High High High
8 15% Low High Low Low

10. Scenario 1
Contained Conflict
In this scenario, the I.D.F.’s intense campaign against Hezbollah is met with a rela
tively muted response from the group. Hezbollah, facing the prospect of a devasta
ting defeat, opts for a more restrained approach, limiting its attacks on Israel and r
efraining from drawing Iran and other regional actors into the conflict.
The U.S. and its allies provide significant support to Israel, but their involvement is
largely limited to intelligence sharing, logistical assistance, and diplomatic efforts t
o contain the conflict. While the fighting in Lebanon is still fierce, the conflict remai
ns largely contained within the Israel-Lebanon theater, with minimal regional escal
ation. The I.D.F. can degrade Hezbollah’s military capabilities, but the group’s polit
ical and social influence in Lebanon remains intact, set-ting the stage for future te
nsions.

11. Scenario 2
Regional Conflict
In this scenario, the I.D.F. launches a major offensive against Hezbollah. The grou
p responds with a strong counterattack. Due to some regional and international co
nsiderations, the U.S. and its allies remain passive. They limit their involvement in
diplomatic efforts.
However, Iran and the Axis of Resistance significantly escalate their involvement.
This could lead to a protracted and devastating regional conflict, with the potential
for significant casualties, widespread destruction, and the risk of escalation into a
broader confrontation.

12. Scenario 3
Battle of Attrition
In this scenario, the I.D.F. launches a military campaign against Hezbollah. It lever
-ages its firepower and technological capabilities. Hezbollah responds with a stron
g, coordinated attack. It unleashes a barrage of rockets, drones, and other asym
metric tactics against Israel.
The U.S. and its allies provide support to Israel. They focus primarily on diplomati
c efforts to de- escalate the situation. On the other hand, Iran and the Axis of Resi
stance support Hezbollah passively. They provide intelligence and weapons rathe
r than participating directly in the ongoing conflict. This scenario leaves the I.D.F. t
o bear the brunt of the conflict. It potentially leads to a prolonged and costly battle
of attrition.

13. Scenario 4
Regional Proxy War
Backed by the U.S. and allies’ logistical support, the I.D.F mounts a fierce attack.
Hezbollah responds with considerable force and protracted resistance. In this sce
nario, the conflict escalates into a regional proxy war. Iran supplies advanced wea
ponry and potentially deploys its forces.
The U.S. provides Israel with significant logistical and diplomatic support but feari
ng a wider conflict, is hesitant to engage directly in military operations. This scena
rio is highly likely, especially if Iran is determined to challenge Israel’s regional do
minance and seeks to establish a stronger foothold in Lebanon.

14. Scenario 5
Stalemate
In this scenario, Israel’s limited military capabilities hinder its ability to achieve a d
ecisive victory. Hezbollah, with active support from Iran, mounts an insignificant re
sistance, inflicting some casualties on Israeli forces. The U.S., while providing logi
stical and diplomatic support, is hesitant to intervene militarily, fearing a wider con
flict.
The scenario ends in a stalemate, with both sides suffering losses and a constant
risk of escalation. This scenario is less likely if Israel’s military advantage is dimini
shed and Iran is willing to escalate the conflict through its active Axis of Resistanc
e.

15. Scenario 6
Fragile Ceasefire
Israel, facing internal pressure and a weakened military, negotiates a ceasefire wit
h Hezbollah, mediated by the U.S. The ceasefire is fragile, with constant border vi
olations and a high risk of renewed conflict.
Iran, while not actively engaging in military operations, continues to exert its influe
nce in Lebanon, seeking to exploit the situation for its interests. This scenario is m
oderately likely if both Israel and Hezbollah are hesitant to engage in a full-scale
war, but tensions remain high.

16. Scenario 7
Victorious Hezbollah
Recognizing its limitations, Israel focuses on achieving specific objectives, such a
s preventing Hezbollah from obtaining advanced weaponry. The U.S., actively inv
olved in diplomacy and mediation, encourages a swift ceasefire and long- term pe
ace negotiations.
Iran, while providing support to Hezbollah, is more interested in increasing the cos
t of war for Israel, the U.S., and its allies as much as possible. This scenario has t
he second-highest probability and could lead to a victorious Hezbollah if Israel pri
oritizes stability over territorial gains and if the U.S. fails to succeed with its diplom
atic efforts desirably.

17. Scenario 8
Impasse
Israel launches limited military operations but fails to achieve a decisive victory. H
ezbollah, with minimum support from Iran and the Axis of Resistance, mounts a si
gnificant resistance, utilizing asymmetric tactics and tunnel networks.
Hezbollah’s asymmetric methods prove highly effective in countering Israel’s adva
nced air force by exploiting vulnerabilities, using terrain to their advantage, and e
mploying tactics that are difficult for conventional air power to counter.
The U.S., reluctant to intervene, leaves both sides to fight a protracted and bloody
war. This scenario could result in a stalemate or fragile ceasefire. Likely, Israel’s
military capacity is significantly weakened and Hezbollah is determined to resist u
nconditionally.

18. Scenario 9
Nuclear Showdown (Wildcard Scenario)
As the conflict grows, deterrence loses its conventional meaning, and the risk of h
itting critical facilities like Israel and Iran’s nuclear sites increases. Israel’s failure i
n achieving its goals in fighting with Lebanon’s Hezbollah amplified by the U.S.’ re
luctance to the deteriorated situation convinces the Israeli leaders to order selecti
ve bombardment of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Encouraged by Iran, Hezbollah successfully targets Israel’s Dimonanuclear react
or with a precision strike, causing significant damage and potential radiation leaks
. Israel retaliates by launching more airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, escala
ting the conflict into a full-scale regional war. The U.S. and its allies intervene acti
vely, providing intelligence and military support to Israel.
Iran and the Axis of Resistance significantly escalate their involvement, leading to
a protracted and devastating regional conflict with the risk of nuclear escalation at
regional and global levels.

19. Scenario 10
Surprise Capture (Wildcard Scenario)
In a surprise maneuver, Hezbollah captured the Golan Heights strategic territory o
ccupied by Israel. This alters the strategic landscape and intensifies the conflict wi
th Israel. Despite involved costs, Hezbollah seizes control of the Golan Heights. Is
rael responds with a massive ground invasion of southern Lebanon. It aims to des
troy Hezbollah’s military capabilities.
The U.S. and its allies intervene actively. They provide intelligence, weapons, and
potential military support to Israel. Iran and the Axis of Resistance significantly es
calate their involvement. This scenario leads to a regional war with the potential fo
r further territorial disputes and instability.

20. Scenario 11
Widespread Cyberattack (Wildcard Scenario)
In this wildcard scenario, the conflict takes an unexpected turn. Hezbollah, with Ir
anian support, launches a sophisticated cyberattack against Israel’s critical infrast
ructure. The group hits Israel’s power grid, water systems, and military command
and control networks.
The attack causes widespread disruption in Israel. It temporarily grounds Israel’s
air force and disables its Iron Dome defense system. Israel responds with its cybe
r capabilities. It targets Lebanese and Iranian infrastructures. A cyberattack crippl
es critical infrastructure in Israel and Iran. It disrupts military operations and fuels
chaos in an already volatile conflict.
The conflict becomes primarily a digital one. Both sides attempt to cripple each ot
her’s technological capabilities. The U.S., U.K., and France become involved in d
e-fending against and countering these cyber threats.

21. Conclusion
An Israeli-Lebanese conflict presents a high degree of uncertainty. It involves mult
iple actors with competing interests and the potential for escalation to unforeseen
levels, including the use of nuclear weapons. This level of uncertainty makes it diff
icult to anticipate the outcomes of the conflict.
Regarding an Israeli-Lebanese conflict, it is essential to understand how changes
in individual probabilities affect the overall likelihood of different scenarios. In addi
tion to thinking of the scenarios developed in this study, decision- makers and poli
cymakers are expected to consider qualitative factors like political will, public opini
on, and unforeseen events.
They should recognize that these scenarios are dynamic and can change as even
ts unfold. The likelihood of these scenarios unfolding is heavily influenced by the
political climate, the regional alliances and the specific objectives of each actor in
volved.

22. © 2024 [email protected]
Exploring the Possible
Scenarios of an Israeli-
Lebanese Conflict
July 12, 2024
Alireza Hejazi, Ph.D.