Fidelity Investments Presentations (example)

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About This Presentation

Fidelity Investments Presentations (example)


Slide Content

Managing Client Accounts Through EarlyCycleRecovery
Strategic AdvisersLLC

Early Cycle Recovery Highlights
The early cycle phase is the beginning of an economic
recovery after a recession
Stocks usually start to rise before an economic recovery
is complete
Historically, stock market returns have been robust during
early cycle recovery
During early cycle, we typically seek to increase exposure
to stocks and high-yield bonds
Focusing on your long-term goals is vital through expansions
and downturns
No matter when you start investing, outcomes can be similar
for long-term investors
2

TheEarly CyclePhaseIs the Beginning ofan
Economic Recovery After aRecession
In early cycle, while various economic
measures remain low after a recession,
signsof improvement start toemerge.
•Historically, as the U.S. economy transitions to
anearly cycle phase from a recession, weoften
see risingexpectations for corporate profits,
improvingmanufacturing activity, and a better
jobsoutlook.
•Banks also become more willing to lend to
individuals and businesses, and interest
rates are usually low, which can further
support economicgrowth.
•In a typical early cycle, economic activity
graduallycontinues to improve before entering
a moresustained mid-cycleexpansion.
The early phase of the business cycle reflects an improving outlook for an
economy recovering fromrecession
For illustrative purposes only. Business cycle above is a hypothetical illustration of a typical business cycle. There is notalways a chronological progressionin this order, and there have been
cycles when the economy has skipped a phase or retraced an earlier one. Past performance is no guarantee of futureresults.
Early
•Activity rebounds
(GDP, IP,employment,
incomes
•Credit begins togrow
•Profits growrapidly
•Policy stillstimulative
•Inventories low,sales
improve
Mid
•Growthpeaking
•Credit growthstrong
•Profit growthpeaks
•Policy neutral
•Inventories, salesgrow;
equilibriumreached
Late
•Growthmoderating
•Credittightens
•Earningsunder
pressure
•Policycontractionary
•Inventories grow,sales
growthfalls
Recession
•Fallingactivity
•Credit driesup
•Profitsdecline
•Policyeases
•Inventories, salesfall
+
Economic
Growth

Avg.Phase
Length
~1year ~3years ~1.5years <1year
See Fidelity’s Latest Thinking
3
CONTRACTIONRECOVERY EXPANSION

Stocks Usually Start to Rise Before an Economic
Recovery Is Complete
Sources:Unemploymentrate:BureauofLaborStatistics.S&P500index:BloombergFinance,L.P.Monthly data from 1950–2019. Avg.Recession:last10U.S.recessions
(excludes2020)baseddata from NBER.
Past performance is no guarantee of futureresults.
4
The economy can often feel uncertain in
early cycle, yet markets can rise as the
outlook improves.
•Early cycle doesn’t mean that the U.S. economy
is back to its pre-recession levels, and measures
like unemployment can remain high for some
time.
•The pickup in activity can also be uneven
across different parts of the economy or show
signs of rising and falling month-to-month.
•This can leave some investors skeptical that
the economy is truly emerging from a
recession, but it is a typical pattern after
recessions.
•In fact, an improving corporate profits outlook,
lower unemployment claims, and low interest
rates have usually driven stock markets higher
before the economy fully recovers.
•Investors who try to wait until an economic
recovery is complete can miss out on strong
stock market gains that this phase has typically
produced.
Stocks have often recovered well before unemployment heads lower
(average of last 10 recessions)
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
-12 -6 0 6 12 18 24 30
S&P 500 Index (100 = 1 year before recession)
Average Unemployment Rate
Months Before or After a Recession Starts (0 = Recession Begins)
Avg. Recession Unemployment S&P 500, indexed = 100

Long-Term Investors May Benefit from the Strong
Recoveries That Often Follow MarketDeclines
* S&P 500 Index average annual total return, 12/31/1927–7/31/2020.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The historical example assumes an investment that tracks the returns of a S&P 500
®
Index and includes dividend reinvestment but does not
reflecttheimpactof taxes,whichwouldlowerthesefigures.Thereisvolatilityinthemarket anda saleat anypointintime couldresultina gainorloss.Yourowninvestmentexperiencewilldiffer,
includingthepossibilityoflosingmoney.Source:BloombergL.P., 12/31/1927–7/31/2020.
5
Stocks have usually experienced strong recoveries after notable
market declines from 1927–2020
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
-5% -10% -15% -20%
Average Total Return, 1 Year from End of 1
-
Month Decline
1-Month x% or Greater Stock Market Decline
5
Jumping in and out of the market can
significantly reduce your portfolio value.
•When markets fall, we understand that it can feel
stressful to see your investments lose value. In
fact, some investors may be tempted to abandon
their strategy when marketsdecline.
•However, jumping in and out of your
investment plan and trying to time the markets
can result in missing out on futuregains.
•As shown, stock markets often deliver healthy
returns after experiencing a decline, even if
the stock market drop was sharp.
•Backed by our deep research and experience,
we remain patient and disciplined through
periods of marketstress.
•By taking a long-term view, we believe that
investors who stick with their plan and stay
invested may have a better chance of reaching
their financialgoals.
Average Annual Total Return*

Historically, Stock Market Returns HaveBeen
Robust During EarlyCycleRecovery
U.S. Stocks in other business cycle phases returned 15% in mid cycle, 5% in late cycle and -8% in recession. Based on nominal returns from 1950–2010, as of 8/31/16. Short-Term Investments reflects a
cash investment. Early cycle average phase length about 1 year.Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Asset class total returns are represented by indexesfromthefollowingsources:
FidelityInvestments,Morningstar,andBloombergBarclays.FidelityInvestmentssource:aproprietaryanalysisofhistoricalasset class performance, which is not indicative of futureperformance.
Modest improvements to the economic
outlook can lift stocks andhigh-yieldbonds.
•Typically, stocks and high-yield bonds
haveprovided strong returns during early
cycle.
•Within stocks, value stocks and smaller
companystocks have often outpaced the
broadermarket.
•Investment-grade bonds, short-term
investments,and commodities havealso
experiencedgains, but at a slowerpace.
•These strong stock market returns can often
comeunexpectedly and quickly after arecession.
•Investors who reduced their allocations to
stocksduring the recession can often miss
thesegains.
•We use our understanding of where the U.S.
economy resides in the business cycle to help
guide the investment decisions we make in
youraccount on yourbehalf.
U.S. stocks have had the strongest average annual returns in early cycle
relative to other business cycle phases
6
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
U.S. Stocks Investment-Grade
Bonds
High-Yield
Bonds
Short-Term
Investments
Commodities
Average Annual Total Return

During Early Cycle, We Typically Seek to Increase
Exposure to Stocks and High-Yield Bonds
Our deep research on the business cycle
and market history helps inform
investment decisions.
•We would normally increase exposure to stocks
and high-yield bonds, as they have historically
performed better than investment-grade bonds
during early cycle.
•Conversely, we may gradually decrease the
amount of investment-grade bonds and TIPS,
along with commodities, because they have
tended to lag stocks more significantly during
this phase.
•As markets generally rise, we also continuously
monitor client accounts and look for
opportunities to rebalance them, as needed, to
maintain an appropriate level of risk.
•We believe that the adjustments we make to
your account on your behalf will help keep you
aligned to your long-term financial goals.
TIPS: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Within client accounts, we normally emphasize those asset classes that
have historically experienced strong returns in early cycle recoveries
Emphasize more: Emphasize less:
Stocks  TIPS 
High-Yield Bonds  Commodities 
Investment-Grade Bonds 
7

-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020
Focusing on Your Long-Term Goals Is Vital
through Expansions and Downturns
This chart illustrates the cumulative percentage returns in the noted index during periods of economic expansions and recessions. Index returns include reinvestment of capital gains and
dividends, if any, but do not reflect any fees or expenses. This chart is not intended to imply any future performance of anyinvestment product. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results.Itisnotpossibletoinvestdirectlyinanindex.Allindexesareunmanaged.Source:Bloomberg,S&P500Indextotalreturnfor 1/1/50–7/31/20;recessionandexpansiondatesdefinedby
the National Bureau of Economic Research(NBER).
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We believe in the power of long-term
investing, as stocks have grown
significantly over the years.
•As shown on the chart, market returns since
1950have been positive onaverage.
•Stocks have experienced tremendous growth
overthe decades despite several recessions
along the way.
•Additionally, the economy has been in
expansionfor the vast majority of time over this
time span,while recessions have been much
lesscommon.
•We believe that investors who stick with their
investment plan tend to be rewarded over the
longterm, because many years of expansion can
powerinvestors through occasionalrecessions.
•That’s why we follow a disciplined investment
approach in managing your account, to help
youreach your long-term financialgoal.
From 1/1/50–12/31/19 ◼Expansion◼Recession
Average Months Duration 64 12
AveragePerformance
(S&P 500 Annualized)
13% 1%
Stocks have delivered tremendous returns over the years, as lengthy
expansions have often followed recessions
S&P 500 Index Cumulative Return

No Matter When You Start Investing,Outcomes
Can Be Similar If You Invest Over the LongTerm
*Real return is the total return of an investment less the rate of inflation.
For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All indexes are unmanaged. Sample Portfolio: 42% Domestic Equity,
18% Foreign Equity, 35% IG Bonds, 5% Cash. This historical analysis is based on Monte Carlo analysis based on historical index returns. "Range of expected returns"illustrates simulations between
the25
th
and75
th
percentile.Thesimulationsrepresentan85%confidenceinterval.Actualreturnscouldpotentiallybehigherorlower.PortfoliobasedonDowJonesU.S.TotalStockMarketIndex,
MSCI ACWI ex-U.S.Index,BloombergBarclaysU.S.AggregateBondIndex,asof12/31/18.
Our research shows that when you fund
youraccount matters less withtime.
•The difference in medianlong-term
performancecan be very small over time,
regardless of whichphase of the business cycle
you start investingin.
•That’s because even if an investor enters the
market during a recession, they are likely to
experience strong stock market returns during
theearly phase of the businesscycle.
•Therefore, choosing when to enter the
marketbased on where we believe the U.S.
economyresides in the business cycle is
unlikely todramatically affectlong-term
returns.
•Instead, we believe that remaining disciplined
andsticking to a long-term investment plan may
be amore reliable way to achieve your financial
goals.
9
Diversified portfolios may experience similar returns over the long run,
regardless of when an investor initiates their account
10
-
Year
Annualized Real Return
*
0%
10%
Early Recession
■Range of expectedreturns Median expected returns
75
th
percentile
25
th
percentile
Median
Mid Late
Business Cycle Phase in Which PortfolioBegins

Patience Has Been Rewarded Over the LongTerm
Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/31/19. U.S. stocks reflect S&P 500 returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is for illustrativepurposesonlyandnotindicativeofanyinvestment.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
Investors who have stayed in the stock
market longer have been more likely to
seegains.
•Investors who have kept a long-term perspective
and stayed invested in stocks have had a better
chance to experience positiveoutcomes.
•For instance, since the start of 1928, day to day,
stocks have had a positive outcome just over half
of thetime.
•However, from 1928 to 2019, stocks have had
positive outcomes more than 97% of the time
over 15-and 20-year periods (based on calendar
year returns).
•We believe that staying invested over the long run
can improve an investor’s chances of a positive
outcome and help them reach their long-term
financialgoal.
10
Percent of time U.S. stocks have been positive over various time periods,
1928–2019
53%
62%
73%
86%
93%
97%
Positive outcomes
may be more likely over
longer-termperiods
Days Months 1Year 5Years 20Years10Years 15Years
Calendar YearReturns
100%

KeyTakeaways
During the early cycle phase,
the U.S. economy starts to
recover after a recession,
and stock markets have
historically risen, even as
some investors remain
skeptical of a recovery.
Based on our research, we
will typically seek to
increase exposure to stocks
and high-yield bonds in
client accounts, as they
have historically delivered
strong performance in
early cycle recoveries.
We believe that investors
who stick with their
financial plan through
periods of marketvolatility
are more likely to achieve
their financialgoals.
11

Views expressed are as of August 12, 2020,and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. Data is unaudited. Information may not be representative of current or future
holdings.
Neither asset allocation nor diversification ensures a profit or protects againstloss.
Keepinmindthatinvestinginvolvesrisk.Thevalueofyourinvestmentwillfluctuateovertimeandyoumaygainorlosemoney.
Past performance does not guarantee futureresults.
This presentation does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment,
legal, tax, or other advice, nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. No assumptions should be made regarding the manner in which a client’s account should or would be
handled, as appropriate investment strategies will depend upon each client’s investment objectives. None of the information contained herein takes into account the particular investment objectives,
restrictions, tax or financial situation, or other needs of any specific client. Certain strategies discussed herein give rise to substantial risks and are not suitable for all investors. The informationcontained
in this material is only as current as the date indicated and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. The information provided by third parties has beenobtained from
sources believed to be reliable, but Strategic Advisers LLC makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Statements concerning financial market trends are based oncurrentmarket
conditions,whichwillfluctuate.Investmentdecisionsshouldbebasedonanindividual’sowngoals,time horizon,andtolerancefor risk.
Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in anindex.
The S&P 500® Index is an unmanaged, market capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity,and industry group representation to present U.S. equity
performance.
DowJonesUSTotalStockMarketIndexisafloat-adjustedmarketcapitalization–weightedindexofallequitysecuritiesofUSheadquarteredcompanieswithreadilyavailablepricedata.
MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) ex USA Index is a market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the investable equity market performance for global investors of large and mid-cap
stocks in developed and emerging markets, excluding the UnitedStates.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based, market-value-weighted benchmark that measures the performance of the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate
taxablebondmarket.SectorsintheindexincludeTreasuries,government-relatedandcorporatesecurities,MBS(agencyfixed-rateandhybridARMpass-throughs),ABS,andCMBS.
Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. This material is provided for
informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as a recommendationfor any security.
In general, the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced forlonger-
term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond fundsdonot
haveamaturitydate,soavoidinglossescausedbypricevolatilitybyholdingthemuntilmaturityisnotpossible.Interestrateincreasescancausethepriceofadebtsecuritytodecrease.
Increaseinrealinterestratescancausethepriceofinflation-protecteddebtsecuritiestodecrease.Interestpaymentsoninflation-protecteddebtsecuritiescanbeunpredictable.High-yield/non-
investment-grade bonds involve greater price volatility and risk of default than investment-grade bonds.
The commodities industry can be significantly affected by commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed without the expresswritten permission of Strategic Advisers LLC.
Investment management services provided for a fee through Fidelity Personal and Workplace Advisors LLC (FPWA), a registered investment adviser and a Fidelity Investments company. Discretionary
portfoliomanagementprovidedbyitsaffiliate,StrategicAdvisersLLC,a registeredinvestmentadviser.Theseservicesareprovidedforafee.
Brokerage services provided by Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC (FBS), and custodial and related services provided by NationalFinancial Services LLC (NFS), each a member NYSE and SIPC.
FPWA, Strategic Advisers, FPTC, FBS, and NFS are Fidelity Investmentscompanies.
Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE and SIPC, 900 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI02917
© 2020 FMR LLC. All rightsreserved.
892905.3.0
Talk with a FidelityRepresentative.
800-544-3455
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