The Complete FOREX
Foundation Course
The Complete FOREX
Foundation Course
Your Instructor: Mohsen Hassan
MTG
–
Montreal Trading Group
Current Position:
CEO of MTG (Montreal Trading Group)
Previous Experience:
•Discretionary Trader
•Semi-Automated Trader
•Brokerage Firm
•Quant (Back-Testing and Developing Strategies)
•Programmer (Developing Trading Software)
What we will learn
Currencies:
•History of money
•Forex market
•Quotation system
Forex Trading:
•Lots/Pips
•Leverage and Shorting
•Brokers/Orders
•Platforms and Charting software's
•Technical Analysis:
Charts/Candlesticks/Trends/Patterns/Indicators
•Fundamental Analysis
Risk Management/Money Management:
•Protecting your account
•Calculating position size
•Entries and Exits
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Live Trading:
•Live Trades
•Trade Analysis
•Recording & Analyzing Historical trades
Trading Psychology
What’s expected of you
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•Try to understand all concepts
•Ask yourself why? And then try to answer that question
•DO THE WORK
•Ask questions
•Practice Practice Practice
The History of Money
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Barter
6000 BC
700 BC
Gold
Paper
Bills
618-907
1879
Gold
Standard
Bretton
Woods
1944
1971
End Of
Gold
Standard
Barter
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Barter
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Need for a common unit of exchange
This unit needs to:
•Be used as a medium of exchange
•Store value
•Be a unit of value
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Need for a common unit of exchange
Unit has to be:
•Scarce
•Hard to Harvest
•Durable
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Problems with Gold
•Can be Debased.
•Fluctuates based on supply. (example: California Gold Rush –1849)
•Hard to transport.
•Issues with having multiple denominations.
•Limited supply.
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Paper Money
•First used by the Chinese (619-907)
•Europeans started adopting the practice only in 17
th
century
•Paper money was just an I.O.U.
•I.O.Us are exchanged at local banks
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Paper Money
•I.O.Usevolvedtoberedeemedbyanyonewhoheldthem
•PeoplethenstartedusingtheI.O.Usandneverreallyexchangingthemfor
gold
•MoredenominationsofI.O.Usstartedbeingcreated.
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•SincenoonereallyredeemedtheirI.O.Us,
banksstartedprintedmoreofthemthenthey
actuallyhadingoldreserve(fractional
reservebanking)
Problem: Fractional Reserve
Definition:“Fractionalreservebankingisabankingsysteminwhichonlya
fractionofbankdepositsarebacked…andareavailableforwithdrawal.
Thisisdonetoexpandtheeconomybyfreeingupcapitalthatcanbe
loanedouttootherparties.”–Investopedia
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Thiscausedmanybankruns,butwitha
CentralBanksbackingit’sbranchesin
caseonofthemneededextracapital,that
issuewasmostlyresolved.
Central Banks
•Firstone:BanksofEngland–1694
•CentralBankNotesvaluedbetterthenother
banknotes
•Regulationfornonewbankstoprintbank
notesandclosedbankstoremovetheirnotes
fromcirculation
•Thisleavesthecentralbank’snotesasthe
onlyonesinthecountry
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Gold Standard
•TheGoldstandardisasystemthatbacksit’scurrencywithgold.
•TheUSadoptedthesystemandoneounceofgoldcouldbetradedfor
$20.67
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•Thislimitsgovernmentsandbanksto
excessivelyissuepapercurrency(and
causehugeinflation),sincethecurrency
hastobebackedbygold.
Backed Dollar Bill
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Change in the Gold Standard
•Afterworldwar1(1914)andthegreatdepression(1929).
•In1930stheUKandtheUSstoppedredeemingCash(doneunderRoosevelt)for
GoldCoins
•Mainreason:NotEnoughgoldtobacktheamountofcurrencytheywanted
(wantingtoincreasethemoneysupply)
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•Whattookplace?FIATcurrency:“atermto
describecurrencythatisusedbecauseofa
government'sorder”–Investopedia
•Atthispointthedollarwas“floating”
1933 Executive Order
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FIAT Dollar Bill
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Bretton Woods
•Cause:fearofcountriesdevaluatingtheircurrencies(toboostexports)
•In1944,44CountriesmeetinBrettonWoods,NewHampshire
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•Decision:AllcurrencieslinkedtotheUS
DollarandthedollarlinkedtoGold
Bretton Woods
•CreationofIMF(InternationalMonetaryFund).TheIMFwilllendmoneyto
countriesinneed.
•CreationoftheWorldBank(Tohelpunderdevelopedcountriestogrow).
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End of The Gold Standard
August 15
th
1971
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How to make money
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Currency Pairs
•CurrencyPair:quotingonecurrencyagainstanother.
•BaseCurrency:thefirstcurrencylisted
•QuoteCurrency:thesecondcurrencylisted
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•EachcurrencyisidentifiedbyitsISO
Currencycode
•ISOstandsforInternationalOrganization
forStandardization.Thecodeisthreeletter
alphabeticcode.
Major Currencies
•USD (US dollar)
•EUR (euro)
•JPY (Japanese yen)
•GBP (British pound)
•AUD (Australian dollar)
•CAD (Canadian dollar)
•CHF (Swiss franc)
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Major Currency pairs
•GBP/USD (the cable)
•USD/CAD (Loonie)
•AUD/USD (Aussie)
•USD/CHF (Swissy)
•USD/JPY
•EUR/USD
•NZD/USD
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Cross Pairs
Pairs that do not include USD.
Example: CAD/JPY
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Market Structure
•TransactionsaredoneOTC(overthecounter).Thereisnocentral
exchangetotradeon.
•BecauseitisOTC,executionpriceswillvary.
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Interbank market
The interbank market is where banks exchange currencies with one another.
They can do this by transacting directly through EBS (Electronic Broking
Services) or Thompson Reuterswho are the two electronic brokering
platforms at this level.
This is only available to very large banks.
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The players
FX Dealers
Other Large Participants
forexbrokersand retail ECNs
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Price Terminology
Spot Price: The current price of a currency pair
Order Book: All the buy orders and sell orders that are open
Bid Price: The price you can sell at right now
Ask Price: The price you can buy at right now
Spread: Difference between the bid and ask
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Pips
Point= min change
Pip= 0.0001
Pipette= 0.00001
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Lots
Standard lot = 100,000 units (of base currency)
Mini lot = 10,000 units
Micro lot = 1,000 units
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Pip Value Calculation
Example: USD/CAD = 1.35251
Contract value for one Lot: 100,000 USD * 1.35251 = 135,251$ CAD
Pip value is the profit/loss for 1 Pip movement.
•If price goes up to 1.35261
•Then Contract value = 100,000 USD * 1.35261 = 135,261$ CAD
•Pip value = 135,261 -135,251 = $10 CAD
•In base currency this is equal to 10/1.35251 = 7.39
*Pip value is always in quote currency
*Value of pip is based on how many lots are taken
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Leverage
Funds loaned to you by your broker
Brokers can loan to you up to 1000 times your money
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Short Selling
Short Selling: “the sale of an asset that the seller does not own. The seller
effects such a sale by borrowing the asset.”-Wikipedia
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Brokers and Orders
A brokeris an entity that facilitates the execution of your order.
Order: instructions to buy/sell a quantity of a product.
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What do you want in a broker
•A broker that is Regulated
•Transparency
•Alignment of interests
•Low Fees
•Leverage
•Good Platform
•Support
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A book vs B book
The A book is the order book that has the major liquidity providers. When a
broker is using this book, he is sending your orders to be executed with one
of those liquidity providers. This is the order book used by ECN brokers.
The B book is the broker’s in-house order book. When a broker is using this
order book, he is taking the other side of your trade (can be hedged or
unhedged). This is the order book used by market maker brokers.
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ECN brokers and Commissions
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Recommended Broker
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Trading Platforms
MetaTrader4:
•Most used platform
•Programming language most widely used
•Kind of old.. (15 years old)
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Ways of Analysis
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Technical
Analysis
•The Study of
Charts (price and
volume).
Fundamental
Analysis
•The study of the
underlying forces
that affects a
financial product.
Types
of
Analysis
What is Technical Analysis?
TechnicalAnalysisisthetrading
disciplinethatusespriceandvolume
toidentifytradingopportunities.
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How is Technical Analysis Used?
TechnicalAnalysisisusedwithinastrategy
tosystematizetheentryandexitprocess
andtoincreaseourtradingprofitsby
givingushighprobabilityentriesandexits.
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Candles
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Trendlines
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Trendlines
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Channels, Supports & Resistances
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Support/Resistance :
•Trends
•Round Numbers
Support/Resistance Property:
•Role Reversal
Chart Patterns
ChartPatternsareusedbecausetheyarebelievedtohave
predictivevalueonfuturepricemovement.Somepatternscan
helptradersinchoosingentryandexitpoints.
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Double/Multiple Tops and Bottoms
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Double/Multiple Tops and Bottoms
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Double/Multiple Tops and Bottoms
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Ascending Triangles
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Symmetrical Triangles
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Wedges
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Wedges
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Technical Indicators
“Technicalindicatorsareafundamentalpartoftechnicalanalysis
andaretypicallyplottedasachartpatterntotrytopredict
themarkettrend.Indicatorsgenerallyoverlayonpricechartdata
toindicatewherethepriceisgoing,orwhetherthepriceisinan
"overbought"conditionoran"oversold"condition.”-Wikipedia
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Relative Strength Index (RSI)
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Fibonacci Retracement
LeonardoFibonacciisan
Italianmathematician.
“TheFibonacciSequenceis
theseriesofnumbers:0,1,
1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,...
Thenextnumberisfoundby
addingupthetwonumbers
beforeit.”–mathisfun.com
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Risk Management
What’s Risk? An action or an activity that has a potential to go wrong.
Risk Management Techniques:
1.Risk Acceptance
2.Risk Avoidance
3.Risk Limitation
➢Stop Losses
4. Risk Transference
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Money Management
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% Of Account Lost % Gain Required to BE
-20% +25%
-30% +43%
-40% +67%
-50% +100%
-60% +150%
Position Sizing
Maximum Loss per trade: ~2%
Steps:
1.Calculate Dollar Max Loss for the Position
2.Decide on Entry Price
3.Decide on Stop Loss Price
4.Calculate Position Size
Function:
Pos Size = ((Max Loss $) / (Entry Price –Stop Loss Price)) / 100,000 * Entry Price
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Batting Average & Win/Loss Ratio
Batting Average: The percentage of trades that are profitable.
Win/Loss Ratio: the ratio of the average profitable trades over the
average un-profitable trades.
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@Mohsen_Hassan
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