Future scenario exercise: Trump wins the 2024 election

Materials for a scenario exercise, modeling a Trump victory in the 2024 election. It has two phases, the week after November's vote, followed by the initial steps of a new administration in January 2025. We relied on Project 2025 and Agenda 47 for policy details, and on the past eight years for cultural responses. The focus was to see how such an outcome would impact higher education, and to prepare academics for such an event.

1. Scenario: the 2024 election

2. The scenario, part 1 How do you respond? The scenario, part 2 How do you respond? Reflections

3. Some guidelines: Play your current or future role Balance practicality with vision Collaborate!

4. Part 1: November 7, 2024

5. The week after Trump claimed victory day 1 Harris just conceded last night GOP wins slim House, Senate majorities Chaos in some state electoral processes

6. The week after Many protests across nation by cause, identity Many court cases filed, proceed Celebrity migration stories

7. Unrest across nation MAGA groups fighting Democratic protests in cities Individual and mass shootings Trump buildings damaged Two kill Trump plots foiled Threats, violence against immigrants

8. Higher education Students protest f2f, online Campus-community clashes Turning Point doxxes profs, staff, students

9. Higher education Pressure for universities, associations to take sides Backlash against Gaza camps esp. in Michigan GOP state leaders call for campus discipline, new laws

10. What questions do you have about the scenario’s details so far?

11. How would you respond in your role, or the role you’d like to have?

12. late Jan 2025

13. First Trump actions Mass deportation starts Executive orders End DEI in federal offices End trans support End climate programs

14. Opposition, reactions Protests escalate, dig in National Guard, Army sent against protesters Global markets in turmoil

15. Educational actions Bills introduced: A bolish DoE Found Space Force Academy End federal $ to campuses doing DEI, “gender ideology” work

16. Educational actions Executive orders End debt forgiveness Forbid federal jobs from requiring degrees; waiver Prohibit grants supporting climate work Suspend federal funding to campuses with significant Gaza encampments

17. Educational actions Executive orders End federal support for educational programs and schools teaching DEI, “gender ideology” Launch program to scrutinize universities for undue Chinese influence

18. Academic o pposition, reactions Protests, camps escalate, dig in on campuses Academics vow non-cooperation w/ admin Several leaders state noncompliance; two fired

19. What questions do you have about the scenario’s details so far?

20. How would you respond in your role, or the role you’d like to have?

21. Reflections on the experience?