great quantities of artillery and the maintenance of an ammunition supply, are
operations which, even if every other part of the enemy’s plan had succeeded,
could not be maintained without giving ample time for the intervention of your
Fleet in decisive force. Further, if the Germans could spare 150,000 of their best
troops for the invasion of England during a deadlock, a similar number would be
released from our side, and it is obvious that even pushing this argument to its
most extreme conclusion, we could transport our men back across the Channel
with the command of the sea much more swiftly and surely than the Germans
could bring theirs across the much wider distances of the North Sea in the face of a
greatly superior naval force. All that would have resulted from the success of this
most perilous operation on the part of Germany, would be to transfer the fighting
of a certain number of Army Corps from the Continent to the British islands, under
circumstances unfavourable in the extreme to the Germans, and favourable in
every way to our troops; with the certainty that the Germans could not be
reinforced, while we could be reinforced to almost any extent, and that unless the
Germans were immediately successful before their ammunition was expended, the
whole force to the last man must be killed or made prisoners of war. I therefore see
no reason why this contingency, any more than that of raids, should force the
Battle Fleet to keep a station of danger during the winter months. The power of the
superior Fleet is exerted with equal effect over the longer distances, and in fact
pervades all the waters of the world.
With regard to anchorages you have only to make your proposals and we will do
our best to equip with anti-submarine nets, lights, and guns the places which you
may wish to use. It is of importance that these should be varied, absolute safety
lying much more in the uncertainty attending the movements of the Grand Fleet
than in any passive or fixed defence of any particular place. We must not be led
into frittering away resources by keeping half a dozen anchorages in a state of
semi-defence, and so far as possible we must organise a movable defence of
guardships, trawlers, patrolling yachts, minesweepers, destroyers with towing
charges, and seaplanes, which can move while the Fleet is at sea and prepare the
new resting-place for its reception.
The employment of a portion or occasionally of the whole of the Battle Fleet, to
supplement the Northern Blockade from time to time is a matter on which you
must be the judge. A large part of your time must necessarily be spent cruising at
sea, and this being so the cruising should be made as useful as possible. Here,
again, anything in the nature of routine or regular stations would be dangerous,
and would, after a while, draw upon you, even in remote northern waters, the
danger of submarine attack.
The enemy in my judgment pursues a wise policy in declining battle. By
remaining in harbour he secures for Germany the command of the Baltic, with all
that that implies, both in threatening the Russian flank and protecting the German
Coast, and in drawing supplies from Sweden and Norway. This is an immense
advantage to the Germans, and is the best use to which in present circumstances
they can turn their Fleet. It is to secure the eventual command of the Baltic that