LPU_NAGI_2023_Transmission of Covid 19.pptx

Pandemic

1. Digitizing the Transmission and Dynamics of COVID-19: A Case Study of Pune Municipal Corporation using Geo-Spatial Techniques Virendra Nagarale 1 , Piyush Telang 2 , Bhaskar Igawe 3 1 Senior P rofessor and Head, Dept. of Geography, SNDT Women's University, Pune Campus, Karve Road, Pune 411 038. 2 Research Associate, ICSSR MRP, Dept. of Geography, SNDT Women's University, Pune Campus. 3 Assistant Professor, Dept. of Lifelong Learning & Extension, Pune Sub-Centre, SNDT Women's University, Pune Campus.

2. INTRODUCTION S ustainability is a concept that refers to the ability to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It involves balancing economic, social, and environmental considerations to create a harmonious and equitable world that can endure over the long term . Environmental Sustainability: This aspect focuses on preserving and protecting the natural environment. It involves practices and policies aimed at conserving resources, reducing pollution, and minimizing harm to ecosystems. Key elements include conservation of biodiversity, sustainable land use, clean energy sources, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions . Social Sustainability: Social sustainability emphasizes the well-being and quality of life for current and future generations. It involves ensuring that social systems are fair, just, and equitable. This includes factors such as access to healthcare, education, clean water, social justice, and human rights . Economic Sustainability: Economic sustainability seeks to maintain a stable and thriving economy while avoiding the depletion of resources or harm to the environment. It involves responsible resource management, sustainable business practices, and a focus on long-term economic viability rather than short-term gains.

3. COVID-19 PANDEMIC SCENARIO IN INDIA The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has had a profound impact on nations worldwide, including India. Since the first reported case in January 2020, India has been grappling with the challenges posed by the virus. With its vast population, diverse landscapes, and complex healthcare system, India's response to the pandemic has been a subject of global attention and concern . Urban areas face several specific challenges during pandemics, including high population density that facilitates rapid disease transmission, limited healthcare infrastructure that can become overwhelmed, vulnerable populations at higher risk of severe illness, urban mobility as a vector for transmission, economic impacts due to industry vulnerabilities etc. In a world marked by unprecedented challenges brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become paramount to understand the intricate geographical dimensions of sustainability in managing public health crises. Pune, a rapidly growing urban center, encapsulates the broader challenges faced by cities across the globe as they strive to ensure sustainability in times of adversity .

4. State wise Distribution of Covid-19 Cases in India Source: REPORT OF COVID-19 CASES Date: 15 May 2020 Public Health Department, Govt. of Maharashtra According to the report, in mid-May 2020, Maharashtra had the highest number of COVID-19 cases in India, with a total of 27,524 reported cases .

5. District / Corporation wise Distribution of Covid-19 Cases in Maharashtra Source: REPORT OF COVID-19 CASES Date: 15 May 2020 Public Health Department, Govt. of Maharashtra In mid-May 2020, among the districts and corporations in Maharashtra, the Mumbai Municipal Corporation reported the highest number of COVID-19 cases, which stood at 16,738, followed by the Pune Municipal Corporation, which accounted for 2,977 cases.

6. The selection of Pune as a study area for our research is substantiated by the fact that it was the location of the first reported COVID-19 patient in the region. This significant event marked the beginning of the pandemic's impact on the city and initiated a cascade of responses, policies, and challenges that continue to shape the local and regional context . Studying Pune allows us to trace the pandemic's progression from its onset, providing valuable insights into the geographical dimensions of sustainability in managing public health crises. Pune , as a rapidly growing urban center, serves as a microcosm of the broader challenges cities face, making it an ideal focal point for our research to understand how geographical factors influence pandemic response and sustainability. CHOICE OF THE STUDY AREA

7. Database and Sources Primary Data Questionnaire Survey GPS Survey Secondary Data: Air Quality – SAFAR Online Platform COVID-19 data – PMC Official Facebook Page, Daily Updates Other related information – PMC website, Govt. Reports, News Papers, Weeklies, Published Literature etc. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Data Pre-processing Tabulation , cleaning the dataset, addressing missing values, and standardizing the variables. Statistical Analysis The statistical computations are done with the help of MS-Excel and XL-STAT software . Geo-Spatial Analysis : For the geo-spatial analysis, Arc-Pro 11 & ArcMap 10.3 mapping software versions are used . Visualization: Graphs, charts, and maps are created for visualization of results. Interpretation and Analysis : The results obtained from the statistical analysis and geo-spatial techniques were interpreted and analysed to draw meaningful conclusions. The findings were compared with existing literature and relevant studies to validate and contextualize the results.

8. PUNE AT A GLANCE Pune city is one of the densely populated cities in the State of Maharashtra located between 17º 50′ N to 19º 24′ N lat. and 73º 19′ E to 75º 10′ E long. The city is partly governed by Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC ) divided into 15 administrative wards and now it is a largest municipal civic body in the State according to its total geographical area of 512 sq. km . As per the census 2011, the population of PMC is 3.12 million which has been increased to 3.37 million in the year 2018 (PMC Election 2018 ).

9. Sr. No Ward Name Total No. of Households Total Population Area Density 1 Aundh 45032 169432 37.15 4561 3 Bhavani Peth 39419 200255 2.99 66975 4 Bibvewadi 68013 263966 9.22 28630 5 Dhankawadi 56682 155160 15.28 10154 2 Dhole Patil Road 35208 211910 12.23 17327 6 Ghole Road 39001 169891 16.63 10216 7 Hadapsar 78445 368091 54.84 6712 9 Kasba Vishrambagh 43138 236606 5.82 40654 8 Kothrud 54480 214275 17.69 12113 14 NagarRoad 59044 248451 50.05 4964 10 Sahakarnagar 46355 275938 22.84 12081 11 Sangamwadi - Yerwada 58421 253778 27.72 9155 12 Tilak Road 60387 244926 14.45 16950 13 Warje Karvenagar 58977 204644 21.46 9536 15 Yewalewadi 1733 154303 22.89 6741 Total 744335 3371626 331.26 10178 Table 1: Ward wise Distribution of Population in PMC

10. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Age & Gender wise Distribution of COVID-19 Cases: In the month of April 2020, the highest number of COVID-19 cases is observed in the 31-40 age group, followed closely by the 41-50 age group. This suggests that individuals in their thirties and forties may be more susceptible to contracting the virus. On the other hand, in the next month May 2020, the highest number of COVID-19 cases is reported in the 21-30 age group followed by the 31-40 and 41-50 age groups. Transmission and Dynamics of COVID-19 in PMC Across all age groups, the number of male cases is generally higher than female cases, indicating a higher prevalence of COVID-19 among males. However, the gender difference in cases diminishes among older age groups, with a more balanced distribution observed in the 61-70 and 71-80 age groups. In both April and May months, the highest number of deaths is observed in the 61-70 and 51-60 age groups, indicating a higher risk of severe outcomes among individuals in these age ranges .

11. Trend in Total Positives: The number of positive cases initially started at a relatively low level on 24-04-2020 (980 cases) but increased significantly over time. There was a steep increase in cases from May to July 2020, with the highest increase observed between 14-07-2020 (29,107 cases) and 04-08-2020 (59,496 cases), where, the number of cases was doubled only in 21 days. The number of positive cases continued to rise steadily until reaching the highest point on 06-01-2022 (499,991 cases). After 06-01-2022, the rate of increase in cases slowed down, with a larger increase seen between 06-01-2022 (499,991 cases) and 31-01-2022 (600,258 cases). Overall, there is a clear upward trend in the number of positive cases, indicating the ongoing spread of COVID-19 in the region.

12. Trend in Total Deaths: The number of reported deaths also started relatively low on 24-04-2020 (64 deaths) but increased gradually over time. There is a lag between the rise in positive cases and the rise in deaths, as deaths typically occur after a certain period of illness. The number of deaths continued to increase steadily, with a notable increase between 14-07-2020 (874 deaths) and 04-08-2020 (1,313 deaths). The highest number of deaths was recorded on 31-01-2022 (9,245 deaths), indicating the severity of the pandemic in the region. The number of deaths has been relatively stable since then, with a slight increase over time.

13. Association between COVID-19 Positive Cases and Population Density In April 2020, there is a strong positive correlation (0.77) between population density and the monthly average of COVID-19 positive cases. This indicates that the administrative ward with higher population density has high the number of positive cases . From May to July 2020, the correlation remains positive but gradually weakens (0.60, 0.08, and 0.02, respectively). This suggests that the relationship between population density and positive cases is still present, but it is becoming less pronounced.

14. Proportion of Total Positive Cases to the Total Population The highest proportion of cases (12.19%) is observed in Aundh , followed by Warje Karvenagar (6.30%), Nagar Road (6.24%), and Kothrud (6.10%) wards. Interestingly , Bhavani Peth , despite having a significantly larger population, has a much lower proportion of positive cases (0.99%) relative to its total population. It is worth noting that in 2020, the percentage of total cases to the population in Bhavani Peth was higher, but there has been a sharp decrease in the subsequent year.

15. This analysis highlights the fact that the spread of a disease cannot be solely attributed to the total population in a specific ward. There must be other factors contributing to the dynamic distribution of positive cases. To gain a better understanding of these reasons and their impact on spread and transmission, a correlation analysis was conducted, examining the monthly average of positive cases and the population density for different administrative wards of PMC . Overall, it is crucial to consider multiple factors beyond population size when studying the spread of the pandemic, and further investigations are necessary to identify the underlying reasons for the observed distribution of positive cases.

16. Correlation between Mean Monthly Covid-19 Positive Cases and Population Density April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 September 2020 October 2020 The colour intensity represents the level of correlation, with darker shades indicating higher correlation and lighter shades indicating lower correlation.

17. The population structure plays an important role in deciding urban health of any urbanized region. Pune Municipal Corporation is highly urbanized area having an average population density of 10178 persons per square kilometers living in 744335 number of households (Table 1). The highest density of population is observed in Bhavani Peth administrative ward followed by Kasba - Vishrambaug and the lowest density is found in Nagar Road ward. It has been observed that since last five years the air quality of PMC area is decreasing, where annual concentration of PM2.5 had been increased by about 60 % which is more than that of country’s annual national ambient air quality standard for PM2.5 of 40 μg /m3 (IITM, 2019). The obtained result shows that the annual average concentration of PM 2.5 in PMC has been increased in last six years and the highest concentration i.e. 96.30 ug /m3 of PM 2.5 is reported in the year 2016. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Air Quality: Environmental Insights

18. The Station wise distribution PM 2.5 shows that there is a fluctuating trend of an annual concentration of PM 2.5 in Hadapsar and Shivaji Nagar surrounding areas. This is because the former station is located at a ward where high proportion of population is residing and the later being a central part of the city having enormous amount of pollutants released from heavy vehicular traffic. The lowest concentration of PM2.5 is reported by the Pashan station in every year. Overall the concentration of PM2.5 in PMC including all the stations is seen to be more than the country's national ambient air quality standard i.e. 40 ug /m3 and WHO guidelines i.e. 10ug/m3. The second pollutant PM10 is also seen to be responsible for various health problems in urban areas. In PMC the level of PM10 concentration in the last six years is reported to be more than 60 ug /m3 but shows decreasing trend from the year 2015 to 2020. The highest concentration of PM10 in PMC were observed in the year 2015 which tends to decrease over the years. Hadapsar station recorded higher average annual concentration of PM10 i.e. 115.04 ug /m3 in the year 2015 which has been considerable decreased to 65.80 ug /m3 in 2020. Overall the annual average concentration of PM10 is seen to be more than national average for all six years. MAJOR OBSERVATIONS

19. The report on Pune's Air Quality prepared by IITM Pune in the year 2019 admired that transportation sector is mostly responsible for half of the primary emissions of pollutants in the city. It can be observed from the following figure that in PMC there were more than 80 % of the total vehicles are petrol based followed by 16% of diesel based and only 3 % vehicles were Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) based are reported. This explains that why the concentration of various pollutants like PM 2.5 and PM 10 are mainly increased in PMC area. This is mainly because of the congestion of roads, increased vehicular traffic the air in PMC is getting polluted. Many studies reported that the diesel engine vehicles emit less greenhouse gases than petrol engines. The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing lockdown in 2020 resulted in a significant reduction in the levels of PM10, PM2.5, and NO2 in PMC, indicating a notable improvement in air quality. This positive environmental impact of the pandemic underscores the trend toward developing cleaner air in the region.

20. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Socio-Economic Status of Housemaids in PMC: Socio-Economic Insights One of the most vulnerable categories of people working in the world's informal economy, remaining unprotected by social security and the law are domestic workers. Despite making a huge contribution to the society and economy, they are frequently overlooked and undervalued. The world economy is paralysed due to the widespread transmission of Covid-19. The employment scenario has also been changed considerably of all types of workers. Other than social and economic challenges, the domestic workers especially women suffered more in terms of physical and mental health concerns. The income levels of the housemaids changed dramatically during covid-19 pandemic . It is estimated that there are 4 to 5 million employers of domestic workers of those major proportion of these workers are mainly found in large urban centers of the state of Maharashtra. Pune city alone comprises more than 1.5 to 2.4 lakhs domestic workers, considering the same it is estimated to have more than 50 thousand housemaids in the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC). The domestic workers in PMC are mostly residing in the slum areas because of low wages and large family dependencies. Total 160 samples are collected from the different administrative wards (Ten Wards) of the study area and for that matter purposive and snowball sampling methods are been used.

21. Administrative Ward Responses % Family Size Responses % Age in Years Responses % Aundh 21 13.125 2 9 5.625 < 20 Bhavani Peth 20 12.5 3 12 7.5 21-30 20 12.5 Dhole Patil Road 4 2.5 4 47 29.375 31-40 102 63.75 Ghole Road 15 9.375 5 57 35.625 41-50 29 18.125 Hadapsar 16 10 6 31 19.375 51-60 7 4.375 Kothrud 15 9.375 7 1 0.625 > 60 2 1.25 Nagar Road 16 10 8 1 0.625 Total 160 100 Sangamwadi – Yerwada 15 9.375 9 1 0.625 Accommodation Responses % Wanawadi – Ramtekdi 14 8.75 10 1 0.625 Owned 46 28.75 Warje Karvenagar 24 15 Total 160 100 Rented 114 71.25 Total 160 100       Total 160 100 Working family members Responses % Marital Status Responses % Other Occupation Responses % 1 30 18.75 Married 141 88.125 Laundry 1 0.625 2 105 65.625 Unmarried 3 1.875 Painting 1 0.625 3 21 13.125 Divorcee 7 4.375 Sewing 1 0.625 4 4 2.5 Widow 9 5.625 Not Applicable 157 98.125 Total 160 100 Total 160 100 Total 160 100 Type of Work Responses % Total Working Hours Responses % Weather Working in Multiple Households Responses % Full time 16 10 0 – 2 8 5 No 20 12.5 Live in 4 2.5 3-5 58 36.25 Yes 140 87.5 Part time 136 85 6-8 81 50.625 Total 160 100 Requirement basis 4 2.5 More than 8 13 8.125 No. of Households Employed in Responses % Total 160 100 Total 160 100 2 15 9.375 Duration of work (Years) Responses % Distance of Travel Responses % 3 61 38.125 1-3 11 6.875 0 – 2 km 88 55 4 47 29.375 4-6 9 5.625 2.1- 4 km 54 33.75 5 8 5 7-9 16 10 4.1- 6 km 10 6.25 6 4 2.5 10 or More 124 77.5 More than 6 km 8 5 7 2 1.25 Total 160 100 Total 160 100 More than 8 3 1.875             Total 140 87.5 Mode of Travel Responses % Level of Education Responses % Reason for not getting Education Responses % Own Vehicle 6 3.75 Graduate or more 2 1.25 Family responsibility 3 1.875 Private Transport 23 14.375 High School 28 17.5 No Accessibility 1 0.625 Public Transport 32 20 Higher Secondary 6 3.75 Weak financial situation 7 4.375 Walk 98 61.25 Upper Primary 72 45 Total 11 6.875 Others 1 0.625 Lower Primary 41 25.625 Migration Responses % Total 160 100 Not educated 11 6.875 Migrants 138 86.25       Total 160 100 Natives 22 13.75 Religion Responses % Social Category Responses % Total 160 100 Buddhist 14 8.75 NT 18 11.25 Migration Category Responses % Christian 4 2.5 OBC 39 24.375 Other than Maharashtra 4 2.90 Hindu 133 83.125 Open 37 23.125 Rural to Urban 130 94.20 Islam 8 5 Others 8 5 Urban to Urban 4 2.90 Others 1 0.625 SC 48 30 Reason for Migration Responses % Total 160 100 ST 10 6.25 Employment 37 26.81       Total 160 100 Marriage 98 71.01             Education 2 1.44             Calamity 1 0.72 GENERAL PROFILE OF THE RESPONDENTS

22. Economic profile of the Respondents The housemaid performs various activities as a part of domestic work on a daily basis including cleaning (CL), cooking (CO), washing utensils or clothes (WUC), child or elderly care ( CEC ) and others (OT). Despite of doing various work they get low wages mostly between 5000-9000 for a month. Very few of the housemaids in our data set are involved exclusively in one activity while, most of them doing multiple activities have reported their income between 5000 – 7000 a month before pandemic hit.

23. Other Sources of Income: Out of 160 samples, 73% of the housemaids has other income sources which includes support from family members (60%), government schemes (29%) such as widow pension schemes, Jan Dhan Yojana etc.

24. IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC Reduction of Income: It can be observed from the obtained results that, about 54 housemaids in our sample (Fig. 6) have reported the 21 - 40 percent reduction in their income during the first wave of covid-19 (March to December 2020) while reduction in income at this category is more (83 respondents) in the second wave of covid-19 (January to June 2021). Every 1 in 4 housemaids suffered of income reduction between 41-60 percent in the first wave of pandemic while only few of the surveyed had no reduction during the pandemic.

25. Reason for loosing job during Covid-19 Pandemic The reduction in income is mainly caused by the loss of job during covid-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdown. Most of the housemaids were terminated by their employer without any additional financial support. Similarly, the family members of the 78% surveyed respondents have also lost their job during the pandemic resulting the reduction in overall family income. Loss of Job of Family Member Reason for loosing job during Covid-19 Pandemic

26. Management of Household Expenses during Covid-19 Pandemic With the reduced family income, the women domestic workers were having to manage different household expenses such as expenses of daily food, payment of rent, health & safety related expenses etc. by the various means.

27. Support Received during Covid-19 Pandemic As per the results gained from the samples it may be noted that most of the housemaids received no support from the Other Organizations in any form (Fig. 10). While about 62 respondents received support in terms of health and safety equipment from the government.

28. Short & Long Term Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic Economically, the housemaids are impacted in many more ways. During the Covid-19 pandemic there were very few income sources available, the income levels were reduced and loss of job created various short term and long term economic and other impacts. Majority of housemaids in our sample faced various short-term difficulties in paying their housing rent (43%), while 22% of them lost their saving in fulfilling their daily needs during the pandemic. Loss of savings also resulted in the borrowings which has increased debt (21%) to sell the personal assets (11%). The long-term impacts include the increase in debt (28%), increase in financial securities (15%) due to employment insecurities after the pandemic (7%) etc.

29. PMC'S RESPONSE TO COVID-19 The local government has imposed several measures such as identifying the containment zone, restrictions over the inter-ward mobility, awareness campaign and increased healthcare facility has helped in decreasing the positivity rate in the densely populated areas of PMC.

30. PMC'S RESPONSE TO COVID-19

31. KEY FINDING S Environmental Sustainability During the Pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns led to a considerable reduction in air pollutants, including PM10, PM2.5, and NO2, contributing to improved air quality in PMC. This improvement in air quality during the pandemic had positive implications for public health, potentially resulting in reduced respiratory illnesses and associated healthcare benefits. However, while environmental sustainability indicators improved, other health-related challenges associated with the pandemic emerged, underlining the need for a holistic approach to sustainability . Population Density and Positive Cases There was a strong correlation between population density and the monthly average of COVID-19 positive cases in PMC during the early stages of the pandemic. This correlation gradually weakened over time, suggesting that while population density remained a factor, other variables also influenced the spread of the virus. These findings underscore the importance of considering a broader range of factors in pandemic response and sustainable urban planning .

32. Proportion of Positive Cases to Total Population The analysis of positive cases relative to the total population in different administrative wards revealed variations beyond population size alone. Wards like Aundh , Warje Karvenagar , Nagar Road, and Kothrud exhibited higher proportions of positive cases, while Bhavani Peth had a lower proportion despite its larger population. These variations highlight the complexity of disease distribution and the need for comprehensive strategies to address geographical disparities in pandemic impacts . Socio-Economic Impact on Vulnerable Housemaids The study shed light on the socio-economic challenges faced by vulnerable domestic workers, particularly housemaids, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Housemaids experienced significant income reductions due to job losses, which had cascading effects on their financial stability. Limited support from government schemes and other organizations underscored the need for enhanced social safety nets and sustainable employment opportunities for this workforce. These socio-economic insights highlight the importance of addressing vulnerabilities and promoting economic sustainability, especially in informal sectors, during public health crises.

33. CONCLUSION In conclusion, our study on COVID-19 in Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC) has provided vital insights at the intersection of sustainability, public health, and urban dynamics. The findings have illuminated the environmental benefits of reduced human activity during the pandemic, particularly in terms of improved air quality. However, the study also highlighted new health challenges that emerged. Demographically, the spread of COVID-19 revealed the complex interplay between population density, age, and gender. While population density initially played a significant role, other factors also influenced virus transmission. Furthermore , our analysis of positive cases in different administrative wards demonstrated that population size alone couldn't explain the variability in cases. This emphasizes the need for comprehensive strategies to address geographical disparities. Lastly, the socio-economic impact on housemaids underscored the vulnerabilities of informal workers during the pandemic. Income losses and job instability highlighted the importance of robust social safety nets and sustainable employment opportunities .

34. REFERENCES Indian Institute of Public Health- Gandhinagar , Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Centre for Environment and Education, & Natural Resources Defense Council. (2019). Air Pollution in Pune: Research and Evidence for Developing The Pune Air Information & Response (Air) Plan (Pp. 20) [Government Report]. Kamal Jyoti Maji , Anil Kumar Dikshit & Ashok Deshpande (2016) Human health risk assessment due to air pollution in 10 urban cities in Maharashtra, India, Cogent Environmental Science, 2:1, 1193110, DOI: 10.1080/23311843.2016.1193110 "Major Sources of Pollution in Pune" (PDF). Maharashtra Pollution Control Board. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016 . https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/first-covid-19-patients-in-maharashtra-return-home-to-warm-welcome/articleshow/74810534.cms?from=mdr https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-calculator-concentration/ https://www.pmc.gov.in/ https://www.facebook.com/PMCPune http://safar.tropmet.res.in/

35. THANK YOU ...